Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY rose to 98.70

USD/JPY extends the rebound from the 200-day MA at 96.60 on the growing optimism about the US budget deadlock. On Tuesday the pair has strengthened into the 98.70 area after a dip in the Asian trade. The greenback has finally broken above the 98.60 resistance (daily Ichimoku, Friday and Monday highs, 50% Fibo).

The pair could surge rapidly in case of any positive news from the US. However, technically, the picture is not so bright: we see a MACD convergence on the H4 chart. Watch the 200-period MA on the H4 (currently at 98.66) – this line has acted as a resistance for a couple of times.

Resistance: 98.80, 99.00 (61.8% Fibo)

Support: 98.35, 98.10/00. 97.60/50

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/604

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 16: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading on the downside around $1.3515. Yesterday euro tested $1.3947, but then bounced due to no resolution to US budget and fiscal issues and managed to close above $1.3500. Senate Democrats and Republicans must now reach a final agreement and persuade House Speaker John Boehner to allow a vote that would pass largely with Democratic support. The single currency dropped today before a report forecast to confirm the slowest price gains in more than 3 years (09:00 GMT). The ECB’s President Mario Draghi will speak today at 18:00 GMT. GBP/USD declined by about 25 points below $1.6000. Britain will release unemployment data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY remains volatile. On Wednesday the pair has recovered above 98.50 after the yesterday’s dip to 98.00 as the US Senate resumed talks to avoid a default. Nikkei 225 is trading on the positive zone. USD/CHF rose to 0.9150, but is still below yesterday’s high at 0.9177. Watch Swiss ZEW economic expectations at 09:00 GMT.

AUD/USD is calmly trading around $0.9520. Aussie remains supported at $0.9500 and capped by the yesterday’s high of $0.9560. NZD/USD has strengthened to $0.8405. New Zealand CPI for Q3 came a bit above the forecast (+0.9% q/q vs. expected +0.8%). There are no other releases scheduled for today on the Asian markets, so all eyes are on the US today. USD/CAD is swinging in the 1.0345/65 area.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/608

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3450, $1.3550, $1.3600;

GBP/USD: $1.5900, $1.6000, $1.6025, $1.6095, $1.6100;

USD/JPY: 97.50, 98.00, 98.60, 98.75, 98.80, 99.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9425, $0.9430, $0.9550, $0.9560.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/609

[⭐ kaito kid]

All eyes on America

US Senate aides said an agreement to lift the government’s $16.7 trillion borrowing limit was near but details still needed to be worked out. The market players will be very alert today hoping that an announcement will be made later on Wednesday.

Westpac: “The way the market is trading is, small selloffs on bad news and big rallies on positive news. I’d want to know whether Boehner will present any bill agreed on in the Senate for a vote in the House. That’s what we really need for a real relief rally.”

The US government entered the 16th day of its shutdown as congressional leaders continue to spar over how to proceed with the nation’s budget and borrowing limit. If the debt ceiling is not raised by Thursday, the government will by law no longer be able to add to the national debt and the Treasury could miss an upcoming interest payment on its debt and go into default.

There are 2 big interest payments – on Oct. 31 and Nov. 15 – 2 potential default dates unless the Congress reaches an agreement. Fitch Ratings warned yesterday that it could cut the US AAA credit rating.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/610

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP jumped on labor data

GBP/USD has reached a weekly high of $1.6060 following the release of the UK employment data, but the pound's rally was capped by sell orders clustered in the $1.6050/80 area. Cable has returned back into the $1.6020 area as of writing.

Data showed UK claimant count change dropped by 41.7K vs. 25K expected. What is more, the previous reading was revised from -32.6K to -41.6K. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.7%.

“Achieving the 7% target is still going to be a challenge for UK,” strategists at Morgan Stanley say. “Hence, we would expect any pound gains to remain limited.”

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/611

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: watching EUR/USD

EUR/USD returned to the positive territory after dipping to $1.3505 during the Asian trading hours and touched $1.3543 retracing 50% of yesterday’s decline. Euro zone’s inflation data came in line with forecasts. US lawmakers keep negotiation on the debt limit as the deadline to raise it comes tomorrow. Everyone’s waiting for the news from America. USD will strengthen if the deal is agreed.

There’s a series of lower lows and highs at H4 chart. Still this move will be viewed as correction to the longer-term upward trend as long as euro stays above $1.3450 (38.2% Fibo). Note that the decline below $1.3470/60 may activate a potential head and shoulders formation with potential target in the $1.33 area.

Support is at $1.3515, $1.3479, $1.3471, $1.3460. Resistance is at $1.3550, $1.3570, $1.3600/05 and $1.3645.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/728

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis

Daily. Last week EUR/USD was consolidating within the Tenkan-Kijun channel on the daily chart. Resistance possible was provided by the upper limit of the channel – Tenkan-sen (TS). Note that on the candlestick chart there was a reversal pattern formed, which later received confirmation. As a result, the pair slipped back to the recent local minimum at $1.3500. It’s clear that the market now requires correction so that the main trend could continue later on. In the short term we expect a decline to Kijun-sen (KS), which started forming support at $1.3440.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The sideways trend, we talked about a week earlier, made EUR/USD to go down deep into the Ichimoku cloud on H4. During the week the pair tested several times the upper levels of the cloud, but it’s obvious that the buyers at the moment are in a weakened condition. The location of Chinkou Spen also confirms the weakness of bulls. It should be noted that in the recent days the pair has already fixed under the Tenkan and Kijun lines which now have the same value © and horizontal. This is the further evidence of the fact that in the short term currency pair may fall to the bottom of the cloud. Senkou Span B formed a support at $1.3440.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Tatyana Norkina for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/722

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Ichimoku analysis

Daily. The past week hasn’t introduced significant changes to GBP/USD situation. Pound was trading above the lower border of the Tenkan-Kijun channel that proves the presence of a short-term flat. However, you should pay attention to the character of the Tenkan-sen’s (TS) movement. In the past two days the line abruptly went down intending to cross with the rising Kijun -Sen (KS). It’s obvious that the formation of a dead cross at the current levels would be a further confirmation of corrective decline. In this case, very soon the prices may test the levels of the cloud top. To do that GBP will have to go back to Tenkan-sen.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. On H4 the market’s decline slowed down at the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud. Senkou Span B served as a support during the past week. However, after the bulls by failing to break an important resistance level at $1.6015, bearish sentiment started growing again. Thus, the Ichimoku cloud expanded to the downside confirming a high probability of the downtrend resumption. Now all lines of the Indicator are directed sideways. If the prices fix above Tenkan and Kijun © which have the same value, we may see a short-term burst of activity on the part of buyers, and for another attempt to test $1.6015. If the price fall below Tenkan and Kijun, the downtrend will resume.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Tatyana Norkina for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/723

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Ichimoku analysis

Daily. USD/JPY has recovered to the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud during the past few days and continues to consolidate below the important mark of 98.60. Note that here is a strong resistance level and Kijun (KS). It’s obvious that the future of the currency pair will be determined precisely at this level. Break upwards would mean the victory for of bulls and growth at least to 99.60. If the resistance 98.60 persists, we can expect a rapid depreciation of the pair towards October lows.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. At H4 the pair is getting to the positive territory, but is still unable to settle above the upper boundary of the cloud. Note that the Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B switched the cloud to the bullish state. The buying interest may increase in the near future. If the market doesn’t hold above the Senkou Span B, we’ll be waiting for the development of the bearish scenario.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Tatyana Norkina for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/727

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 17: Asian session

US Congress voted in favor of a deal to end a US government shutdown and raise the debt limit, damping demand for haven assets. The deal would fund the government through Jan. 15, 2014, and suspend the debt limit until Feb. 7, setting up another round of confrontations then. The Senate voted 81-18 for this plan to halt the 16-day shutdown and raise the borrowing limit and the House of Representatives voted 285-144. The bill’s now waiting to be signed by President Obama.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3550. Watch for the euro zone’s current account results at 08:00 GMT along job market data in the US at 12:30 GMT and Philadelphia’s Fed manufacturing index at 14:00 GMT. GBP/USD went up to $1.5986. Britain will release retail sales at 08:30 GMT (forecast: +0.5%; previous: -0.9%).

USD/JPY printed a high at 99.00 (highest since June) earlier in the Asian session. Later on the pair has retraced lower, testing 98.40. USD/CHF slid to 0.9120.

USD growth versus the higher-yielding currencies remains subdued: the markets are gauging the impact of the recent impasse on economic growth and prospects the Fed will taper stimulus. AUD/USD has retraced to $0.9530 after having touched a fresh 4-month high at $0.9570. Australia NAB quarterly business confidence improved to 3 (vs. prior -1). NZD/USD is swinging in the $0.8410/45 range. USD/CAD has slowed the yesterday’s decline, consolidating around 1.0320.

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/614

[⭐ kaito kid]

B]EUR/USD jumped above $1.3600[/b]

EUR/USD jumped above $1.3600 triggering on its way stop orders and blowing the sellers of the market. There is no specific news. Euro’s advance may be caused by the buying from the European traders who have joined the market and are now playing on the news that all is well in the US. On the upside there are $1.3620 and$1.3650 on the way. Support is at $1.3580/70.

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/614

[⭐ kaito kid]

CA, CS: EUR/USD bullish targets

Credit Agricole: EUR/USD may well approach levels close to $1.3800 during the coming few weeks as investors’ ECB monetary policy expectations are unlikely to adjust lower in the short term and the Fed’s monetary policy stance may not keep only the greenback capped but also the capital flow situation in favor of the single currency.

Credit Suisse: Stay long EUR/USD for $1.3700.

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/731

[⭐ kaito kid]

Analysts: comments on USD/JPY

Commerzbank: USD/JPY remains capped at 99.10 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) for now. Over the next few days the six month resistance line at 99.60 remains in play. We expect the 99.70/100.60 area to hold the upside. Potential dips should find support around 97.50 (late September low).

CMC Markets: The 99 round handle is a tough one to overcome, looking at how it’s been facing that resistance since the end of September.

JPMorgan: USD will face resistance in the 98.65/99.15 yen area. This area should be a tough hurdle for the short-term setup. Still, corrective retracements look like buying opportunities.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/732

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 18: Asian session

US dollar weakened this week versus its main counterparts as the Fed’s Reserve officials (Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minneapolis Fed president Naryana Kocherlakota) signal a delay in stimulus reduction. There will be more Fed speakers today at (16:30-20:30 GMT). Reports due next week that may show US home sales and confidence declined. Demand for higher-yielding assets rose this week as US Congress has reached a deal to extend funding and debt-limit deadlines into next year and the government reopened after a shutdown.

The majors are consolidating after a big more yesterday. EUR/USD edged a bit down from yesterday’s high at $1.3681 to $1.3663. Euro strengthened by 140 pips on Thursday. There’s a risk of verbal interventions from the ECB officials. GBP/USD declined by 30 pips from yesterday’s high around $1.6170. Pound rose by about 155 pips on Thursday. USD/JPY has recovered a little to the 98.00 mark after having plummeted to 97.75 yesterday. The BoJ Governor Kuroda will hold a speech today at 6:30 GMT. USD/CHF corrected a bit up to 0.9030 after it lost more than 100 pips and hit 0.9007 on Thursday.

AUD/USD has lost some ground, slipping from the yesterday’s 4-months peak of $0.9550 to $0.9610. NZD/USD has moved down from the yesterday’s high of $0.9525 to $0.8450. China Q3 GDP came in line with expectations at 7.8% q/y (prior: 7.5%). September industrial production has also grown in line with forecast by 10.2% y/y (prior: 10.4%). USD/CAD returned to 1.0300. Canada will release inflation data at 12:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/617

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3550, $1.3575, $1.3625, $1.3675, $1.3700, $1.3750;

GBP/USD: $1.6225;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.30, 97.50, 98.00, 98.50, 98.60, 99.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9100, 0.9150;

AUD/USD: $0.9500, $0.9575, $0.9600;

USD/CAD: 1.0310, 1.0365, 1.0400;

NZD/USD: $0.8330, $0.8400;

EUR/JPY: 134.00;

EUR/CHF: 1.2355;

CHF/JPY: 108.00.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/618

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Long at $1.3622 with a target of $1.3695 and a stop at $1.3593

USD/JPY: Long at 97.80 with a target of 98.51 and a stop at 97.70

GBP/USD: Long at $1.6065 with a target of $1.6310 and a stop at $1.6010

USD/CHF: Short at 0.9130 with a target of 0.8968 and a revised stop at 0.9099

AUD/USD: Long at $0.9580 with a target of $0.9716 and a stop at $0.9525

USD/CAD: Possibly look to buy

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/735

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: GBP/USD on the rise

GBP/USD extends the upside on Friday, testing fresh 2-week highs around $1.6190. Small bearish retracement in the Asian trade was stopped by the $1.6140 level. Combination of the overall USD sell-off with optimism on the UK economy keep supporting the British currency. Yesterday's data showed UK retail sales rose above forecast in September.

On the back of the recent bullish developments, we went long on the cable from $1.6165 with an initial target of $1.6250 and a stop at $1.6130. Yesterday the technical picture changed dramatically: cable jumped by more than 200-pips at once. Daily close above $1.6160 is a good sign for the buyers. You should also note that cable broke above the H4 bearish Ichimoku, taking it into the positive zone. However, the pair is overbought now, so the bulls may encounter some resistance. The $1.6200/10 area could slow the upside.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/736

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD after the big advance

EUR/USD has climbed today to the highest level since Feb. 1 at $1.3690. Yesterday dollar was hit versus all of its main counterparts and euro managed to gain about 140 pips, so today the market has so far been in the consolidative mood. There are no major European economic data releases scheduled in the euro area, so all will depend on the market’s risk sentiment. The volatility may increase towards the evening as the Fed members will speak at 16:30-20:30 GMT.

The most important resistance lies at $1.3711 (Feb. high). Support lies at $1.3650/40 and $1.3607/00. It seems that the bulls have the power to test this level, though the pair is overbought and the move probably won’t be very confident. Above this level the market will focus on $1.3800/30. Weekly close above $1.3645 will be a good sign.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/734

[⭐ kaito kid]

Oct. 21: Asian session

US dollar traded near the lowest level since February before data tomorrow forecast to show US unemployment held above the threshold for the Fed to start tapering its bond purchases. Now that the US government is re-opened, global traders will be closely watching the stream of US data. Today pay attention to American existing home sales.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.3680 area after it has touched levels above $1.3700 on Friday. There will be some news from Germany today: PPI due at 06:00 GMT and monthly report from Bundesbank. GBP/USD is trading in the $1.6170 area after it has touched $1.6225 on Friday.

USD/JPY has opened the week at 97.80 and strengthened to 98.10. Yen has lost some ground as Japan’s export growth slowed and the BoJ governor Kuroda reiterated his commitment to monetary easing in a speech in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.67%. USD/CHF recovered to 0.9035 after it found support just above 0.9000 on Friday.

AUD/USD has recovered to $0.9670 after having dipped to $0.9640 earlier in the day. NZD/USD keeps consolidating in the $0.8485/8508 range. USD/CAD is consolidating below 1.0300.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/623

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3550, $1.3555, $1.3625, $1.3650, $1.3700, $1.3750;

GBP/USD: $1.6000, $1.6225;

USD/JPY: 97.00, 97.25, 97.60, 97.80, 98.00, 98.25, 98.50, 98.60;

AUD/USD: $0.9600, $0.9625, $0.9700;

NZD/USD: $0.8395, $0.8575.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/624

[⭐ kaito kid]

Warnings from US Treasury Secretaty Lew

US Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew warned that the political drama surrounding the debt limit hurt American economy and must not be repeated.

Lew underlined that even getting close to the breaching the debt ceiling “does do some damage” pointing though that the US has “a resilient economy.”

According to Lew, America should improve its long-term fiscal health and adopt “a comprehensive package that shrinks our deficits, protects Medicare and Social Security for those who rely on it, and expands our economy well into the future.”

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/627

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. As euro reached the previous high at $1.3680, the layout has been changed. The pair may be forming the global horizontal triangle. Now we are seeing the construction of wave [D] of this triangle.

Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

Daily. Wave Y of [D] is close to an end. Let’s examine its structure on a smaller timeframe.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The pair continues building the wave (5) of the final upward impulse. The upward movement in the wake of yet is likely to continue, as shown at the picture.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/739

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. Pound may have completed the construction of a correction wave [iI]. The detailed layout is shown below.

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. The waves [1] and [2] which represent the beginning of downward momentum are complete.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. Presumably the wave [2] took the form of a Zigzag. It looks complete. If the layout is correct, in the near future we can expect a decline.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/740

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Daily. Presumably completed the construction of wave , which took the form of a convergent horizontal triangle. In the near future we expect a decrease in the wave [C].

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. Detailing layout is shown in the figure. Consider the last section in more detail.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. Wave almost formed. In the near future the construction of the correctional wave [iI], as shown in the figure. When the corrective wave is formed, decline will continue.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/741

[⭐ kaito kid]

AUD/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. We see some local upward movement in the last section, its value made us change the layout. In the near future we expect upward movement.

Chart. Weekly AUD/USD

Daily. We are probably witnessing a beginning of construction of the wave [C]. The first waves of this impulse have been formed.

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

H4. We are currently seeing the construction of the wave (3). This wave is usually the most powerful and rapid in the impulse. In the last section we can observe the acceleration of the bullish trend. In the near future we expect the continuation of the advance.

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Roman Petuchov for FX BAZOOKA

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/742