COZfx: AUD/USD weekly outlook

[kiriss5678]

COZforex: The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session at a 12-day low against its US counterpart, despite the release of a flurry of positive economic reports from Australia throughout the week.

AUD/USD hit 1.0354 on Friday, the pair’s lowest since March 5; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0381 by close of trade, up 0.35% for the week. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 1.0369, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0330. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0463, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0518.

On Thursday, data showed that Australian retail sales advanced 1.3% in February, more than the expected 0.3% rose, following a 1.2% increase in January. A separate report showed that building approvals in Australia rise 3.1% in February, beating expectations for a 2.4% increase, after a 2% drop the previous month.

The data came one day after official data showed that Australia's trade deficit narrowed more-than-expected in February, hitting AUD0.18 billion from a deficit of AUD1.22 billion the previous month. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia

held the benchmark interest rate at a 50-year low of 3%, citing the recent recovery in household spending.

Commenting on the decision, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that "there are a number of indications that the substantial easing of monetary policy during late 2011 and 2012 is having an expansionary effect".

Meanwhile, in the US, a government report released Friday showed that the economy added 88,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since last June and far below forecasts for an increase of 200,000.

The data also showed that the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7% in February, but the drop stemmed from more people dropping out of the labor force. The labor participation rate declined to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting for further hints on the future of its monetary policy. Market participants will also be watching US data on retail sales and consumer sentiment on Friday, while monthly labor data from Australia on Thursday will also be in focus.

(COZ forex UK)