indrajeet Posted April 3, 2012 Report Share Posted April 3, 2012 Weekly Technical Outlook EUR/USD by acfx The prevailing weekly trend is short. The weekly chart has been in a downtrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of lower lows and lower highs since the breach of the 2nd October swing low. Furthermore the price action is confined within its channel. The stochastic is in the upper levels of its neutral range but is experiencing a negative divergence. The Alligator indicator is neutral as the deferred MA’s are becoming inter twined. However, this could be to an opportunity to sell EURUSD off a lower time frame as the price action has in effect pulled back into its averages. Possible range The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 269 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3075 and 1.3613. Long scenario § Conservative long above 1.3485 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long neutral. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.3003 being the last daily fractal. § Aggressive short from lower time frame with price action in the deferred MA’s. Notes Longs are counter trend to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/weekly-outlook/weekly-technical-outlook-4/ Weekly Technical Outlook GBP/USD by acfx Overview The prevailing Daily trend is short but with a warning as the Alligator indicator is long. The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of lower highs and lower lowers since the breach of the 10th July swing low. The stochastic has breached the overbought area and negatively diverging The price action is confined within a large converging triangle that was formed off the January 2009 lows. It would be expected that resolution of this pattern would be volatile and with a great deal of momentum. The Alligator indicator is bullish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a buying opportunity in lower time frames. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 240 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.577 and 1.625. Long scenario § Conservative scenario is neutral as we have breached the previous fractal high at 1.5991. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5602 being the last weekly fractal. § Aggressive short into the Alligator indicator. Notes Swings short, Alligator long. http://blog.acfx.com/weekly-outlook/weekly-technical-outlook-4/ Weekly Technical Outlook USD/JPY by acfx Overview The prevailing weekly trend is long. A normalized swing count has not given any clear direction with respect to the longer term trend but the down trend channel and trend line have made the bearish trend fairly obvious. However the multiyear trend line break must be viewed closely for further signs for a broad change of trend. The stochastic has breached the overbought area and is setting up a possible bearish hidden divergence The Alligator indicator is bullish but price is extended from its MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 1.4786. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 81.37 and 84.33. Long scenario § Conservative long above 84.17 being the last weekly fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 76.02 being the last weekly fractal low. § Aggressive short into the alligator. Notes Shorts are counter trend to the prevailing Alligator bullish set up. http://blog.acfx.com/weekly-outlook/weekly-technical-outlook-4/ Weekly Technical Outlook USD/CHF by acfx Overview The prevailing weekly trend is long. The weekly chart has been in an uptrend since the breach of the 2nd October swing high. However the price action is confined within a multi month weekly down channel which has thus far dictated the longer term trend. The stochastic is neutral and at the lower end of its range but there is a hidden positive divergence setting up. The Alligator indicator turned neutral with the MA’s inter twined from being bullish. This however can be seen as a buying opportunity on a lower time frames. Possible range The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 193 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.8831 and 0.9217. Long scenario § Conservative long above 0.9334 being the last weekly fractal high. § Aggressive long off a lower time. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 0.8930 being the last weekly fractal low. § Aggressive short neutral. Notes Short entries are counter to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/weekly-outlook/weekly-technical-outlook-4/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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