indrajeet Posted April 2, 2012 Report Share Posted April 2, 2012 Daily technical outlook for USDCHF as at 2nd April 2012 by acfx.com The prevailing Daily trend is short. The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern. The stochastic has breached the oversold area which could be seen as a sign that USDCHF needs to take a pause or that the indicator is now embedded with further downside to come. The Alligator indicator is bearish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a selling opportunity in lower time frames. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 82 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.8942 and 09106. Long scenario Conservative long above 0.9093 being the last daily fractal high. Aggressive long into the Alligator indicator. Short scenario Conservative scenario is neutral as USDCHF has already breached the 8th March fractal at 0.9071. Aggressive short wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. http://blog.acfx.com/ Daily technical outlook for USDJPY as at 2nd April 2012 by acfx.com The prevailing Daily trend is long The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal. The stochastic has breached the overbought value as is now neutral but heading towards the oversold area. The Alligator indicator is bullish with price in a lower time frame buying zone. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.805. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 82.05 and 83.66. Long scenario Conservative long above 83.38 being the last daily fractal high. Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario Conservative short beneath 81.82 being the 30th March low. Aggressive short, neutral. http://blog.acfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 3, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 3, 2012 Daily Market Outlook April 3rd, 2012 By acfx.com Currencies · EUR/USD The dollar declined against most of its major peers as signs of recovery in the U.S. economy sapped demand for the relative safety of the world’s reserve currency. o The greenback slid 0.2 percent to $1.3345 per euro. · NZD/USD The greenback slid versus the New Zealand dollar before a government report forecast to show U.S. factory orders rebounded in February, which would follow figures yesterday that signaled an acceleration in manufacturing. Australia’s currency gained before the nation’s central bank decides on policy today in Melbourne. o The U.S. currency lost 0.3 percent to 82.58 cents per New Zealand dollar after dropping 0.6 percent yesterday. · USD/JPY The yen strengthened amid speculation traders pared bets against the currency. o The dollar lost 0.2 percent to 81.92 yen as of 12:37 p.m. in Tokyo, and earlier touched 81.56, the weakest since March 9. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-120/ Daily Market Outlook April 3rd, 2012 By acfx.com Commodities · Oil fell after the biggest gain in six weeks as a forecast for rising inventories in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer, signaled demand may be easing. o Oil for May delivery slid as much as 43 cents to $104.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $104.95 at 1:20 p.m. Sydney time. · Gold may advance for a third day as better-than-expected U.S. economic data weakened demand for the dollar as a haven, tempering the impact of slower consumption in India, the largest buyer, as jewelers extended a strike. o Spot gold traded at $1,679.63 at 12:27 p.m. in Singapore, after rising as much as 0.2 percent earlier. Bullion climbed 1 percent in the past two days as the dollar fell 0.4 percent against a six-currency basket. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-120/ Daily Market Outlook April 3rd, 2012 By acfx.com Equities · Asian stocks rose for a third day as signs of strength in the world’s two biggest economies, the U.S. and China, bolstered confidence in the global recovery. Japanese shares fell as the yen’s appreciation damped the earnings outlook for the country’s exporters. o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 127.45 as of 11:51 a.m. in Tokyo, with about the same number of stocks rising as falling. The measure gained 0.4 percent yesterday, extending its best quarterly rally since the third quarter of 2010. · European stocks climbed the most in almost three weeks, erasing earlier losses, as reports showed manufacturing expanded more than forecast in the U.S. and China. o The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) advanced 1.5 percent to 267.16 at the close, the biggest gain since March 13. The measure erased losses in the final two hours of trading, after earlier dropping as much as 0.4 percent. · U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest level since December 2007, on stronger-than-forecast growth in manufacturing. o The S&P 500 rose 0.8 percent to 1,419.04 at 4 p.m. New York time. The index on March 30 completed its biggest first-quarter rally since 1998. o The Dow gained 52.45 points, or 0.4 percent, to 13,264.49 yesterday. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-120/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 4, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 4, 2012 Currencies · EUR/USD The dollar rose to a more than one-week high versus the euro as signs of improving U.S. employment support the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold off from increasing monetary accommodation. o The dollar climbed 0.3 percent to $1.3200 per euro at 12:49 p.m. in Tokyo after earlier reaching $1.3184, the strongest since March 22. · EUR/JPY The euro fell toward the week low reached yesterday against the yen as European Central Bank officials prepare to meet on policy amid signs of slowing growth. o Europe’s shared currency dropped 0.4 percent to 109.20 yen after reaching 108.70 yesterday, the lowest since March 23. http://blog.acfx.com/ Commodities · Oil fell for a second day in New York after a report showed U.S. crude stockpiles rose and Federal Reserve minutes indicated central bankers saw no need for more monetary stimulus unless economic growth slows. o Oil for May delivery fell as much as 41 cents to $103.60 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $103.69 at 12:28 p.m. Singapore time. · Gold edged lower on Wednesday, extending a nearly 2 percent tumble in the previous session, as the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's last policy meeting showed diminishing appetite for further monetary stimulus. o Spot gold edged down 0.1 percent to $1,642.60 an ounce by 0344 GMT, after posting its biggest one-day decline in three weeks. Prices dropped below $1,640 on Tuesday. http://blog.acfx.com/ Equities · Asian stocks slid, with the benchmark index (CRY) dropping for the first time in four days amid market holidays across the region, after the Federal Reserve damped expectations for more monetary stimulus, sending commodity prices down and weighing on shares of resource companies. o The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1 percent to 126.03 as of 11:26 a.m. in Tokyo, with about three stocks falling for each that rose. Asia’s benchmark equity gauge has risen 11 percent this year amid signs the U.S. economy is recovering. Gains slowed after China last month cut its target for economic growth as it seeks to cool the property market and become less dependent on exports. · European stocks dropped, paring the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index’s biggest two-day rally since February, as Spanish bond yields rose and U.S. factory orders rebounded less than economists had estimated. o The The Stoxx 600 (SXXP) fell 1.1 percent to 264.29 at the close in London, extending losses in the final hour of trading. The benchmark measure jumped 1.5 percent yesterday, completing its biggest two-day advance in two months, as reports showed manufacturing expanded more than forecast in the U.S. and China. · U.S. stocks fell, a day after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose to the highest level since 2008, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting damped expectations for more monetary stimulus. o The S&P 500 dropped 0.4 percent to 1,413.38 yesterday. o The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 64.94 points, or 0.5 percent, to 13,199.55 after reaching the highest level since December 2007 on Monday. http://blog.acfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 5, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2012 Daily technical outlook for EURUSD as at 5th April 2012 Trend The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning Price action has just put in a lower high. A breach of the 15th March swing low will confirm a new down trend. Possible head and shoulders pattern is forming. The alligator is now mixed. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high which is a warning sign of a possible reversion to the previous multi month down trend. The price action is now broken the top of its regression channel. The stochastic has breached the overbought area and now rolled down into its higher neutral range The Alligator indicator is mixed. The next two to three periods will clarify its bias. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 113 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3028 and 1.3254. Long scenario Ø Conservative long above 1.3380 being the last daily fractal high. Ø Aggressive long at the 1.3145 area off a lower time frame being support and 15th March to 27th March Fibonacci. Short scenario Ø Conservative short. The 1.3251 short set up as mentioned in a previous post is in play with projected targets being the envelope and Fibonacci extension. Ø Aggressive short is neutral. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-123/ Daily technical outlook for GBPUSD as at 5th April 2012 Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. The price action has made a higher high. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down. The stochastic breached the overbought area and has now rolled over into the higher neutral zone. The price action has now hit the top off the envelope which may provide resistance to any further upward momentum for the time being. The Alligator indicator is bullish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a buying opportunity in lower time frames. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 108 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5781 and 1.5997. Long scenario § Conservative scenario long above 1.6062 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5770 being the last daily fractal § Aggressive short neutral. Notes Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-123/ Daily technical outlook forUSDJPY as at 5th April 2012 Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. Overview The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal. The stochastic has breached the overbought value as is now neutral but heading towards its oversold area. The Alligator indicator is bullish. This may be seen as a buying opportunity in a lower time frame. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.8979. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 81.5521 and 83.3479. Long scenario § Conservative long above 83.29 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 81.55 being the 3rd April low. § Aggressive short, neutral. Notes Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-123/ Daily technical outlook for USDCHF as at 5th April 2012 Trend The prevailing Daily trend is short Warning A potential higher low may be forming. Overview The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern. The stochastic has breached the oversold area and is now curling upwards into the lower area of the neutral zone. This could be a sign that the indicator is now confirming the higher low in the price action. The Alligator indicator is mixed. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 77 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.9081 and 0.9235. Long scenario § Conservative long above 0.9093 is in play. Please see chart for targets. § Aggressive neutral. Short scenario § Conservative scenario below 9001 being the last daily fractal low. § Aggressive short wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s so as to identify an entry off a lower time frame. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-123/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 9, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2012 Currencies EUR/USD The U.S. dollar dropped against other major currencies on Friday after government data triggered worries about the health of the U.S. labor market and the economic recovery. The decline for the dollar came after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 120,000 jobs in March. In contrast, economists had expected a gain of 210,000 jobs USD/CAD The U.S. dollar ended the week moderately higher against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, but USD remained under pressure amid fresh expectations of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve while lower oil prices weighed on the CAD. In Canada, data showed that the number of employed people in Canada rose by a seasonally adjusted 82,300 in March, blowing past expectations for an increase of 10,000. http://blog.acfx.com/ Commodities Oil fell for the 3rd time in four days after Iran agreed to resume talks on its nuclear program and economic reports in the U.S. and China raised concern about fuel demand. Oil for May delivery declined as much as $1.44 to $101.87 a barrel in electronic trading on the NYMEX and was at $102.05 at 11:37 a.m. Singapore time. The contract closed at $103.31 on April 5. Prices have gained 3.3 % this year. Brent Crude for May settlement slid or 0.9 percent to $122.36 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The premium of the European benchmark to New York futures was at $20.34, the widest gap in 3 days. Markets were closed in New York and London on April 6 for public holidays. GOLD prices in London rose for a second straight day after U.S. employers added fewer than jobs than forecast, boosting prospects for the Federal Reserve to use additional stimulus measures to spur growth. Gold has surged 86 percent since the end of 2008 as the Federal Reserve held borrowing costs at a record low and bought $2.3 trillion in housing and government debt. http://blog.acfx.com/ Equities Asian stocks dropped for a fourth day as data on job creation in the world’s biggest economy trailed estimates. The loss is considered as the longest losing streak on the regional benchmark since November, as a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report cast doubt on the strength of the recovery in the world’s biggest economy Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average had a weekly biggest decline since December 13th as markets we shut upon holidays. European stocks fell for a third week, the longest losing streak since August, as Spain’s rising borrowing costs boosted concern the euro-area has yet to contain its debt crisis, and the US Federal Reserve damped expectations for further monetary stimulus. European stocks decline as well as the ECB disbursed 1 trillion euros ($1.27 trillion) in three-year loans to the region’s financial institutions and US economic reports beat estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed down 1.6% at 259.07. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index has risen +0.35% reaching level of 5,724. U.S stocks futures and the dollar slumped Friday, while Treasury prices surged after government data delivered an unwelcome surprise on a day when most markets were closed: Only 120,000 jobs were created in March, well below market expectations. The Dow Jones declined an -0.11% reaching the level of 13,060.14. S&P 500 declined a -0.06%, reaching the level of 1,398.08. http://blog.acfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 10, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 10, 2012 Eur/usd Analysis by acfx.com Trend The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning Price action has put in a lower high. A breach of the 15th March swing low will confirm a new down trend. Possible head and shoulders pattern is forming. The alligator indicator has turned negative. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high which is a warning sign of a possible reversion to the previous multi month down trend. The price action is now broken the top of its regression channel. The stochastic has breached the oversold area. The Alligator indicator has a short bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 109 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.2996 and 1.3214. Long scenario § Conservative long above 1.3380 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short. The 1.3251 short set up as mentioned in a previous post is in play with projected targets being the envelope and Fibonacci extension. § Aggressive short is neutral. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-124/ GBP/USD Analysis by acfx.com Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. The price action has made a higher high. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down. The stochastic is in the lower levels of its neutral zone. The price action rebounded off the top of its envelope. A further test of the envelope cannot be ruled out. The Alligator indicator is bullish with any pull back into the deferred moving averages being a buying opportunity in lower time frames. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 103 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5879 and 1.6085. Long scenario § Conservative scenario long above 1.6062 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5804 being the last daily fractal. § Aggressive short neutral. Notes Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-124/ USD/JPY Analysis by acfx.com Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning Alligator is mixed. A small head and shoulders pattern may be forming marked by the X sign. Overview The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal. The stochastic has breached the oversold value. The Alligator indicator is mixed. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.9379. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 80.5421 and 82.4179. Long scenario § Conservative long above 83.29 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 81.55 being the 3rd April low is in play. Please see chart for target. § Aggressive short, neutral. Notes Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-124/ USD/CHF Analysis by acfx.com Trend The prevailing Daily trend is short Warning A potential higher low may be forming. The Alligator has turned bullish. Overview The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern. The subsequent potential higher lower of the 2nd April is a further sign that this bullish scenario may about to be played out. The stochastic is in the upper regions of its neutral zone. The Alligator indicator is bullish. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 73 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.9098 and 0.9244. Long scenario § Conservative long above 0.9093 is in play. Additional longs above 0.9222 being the last daily fractal high. Please see chart for targets. § Aggressive scenario, buy pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off lower time frames. Short scenario § Conservative scenario below 9001 being the last daily fractal low. § Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s off lower time frames. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-124/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2012 EUR /USD Technical analysis by acfx 11/04/2012 Trend The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning Price action has put in a lower high. A breach of the 15th March swing low will confirm a new down trend. Possible head and shoulders pattern is forming. The alligator indicator has turned negative. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high which is a warning sign of a possible reversion to the previous multi month down trend. The price action is now broken back into the top of its regression channel. The stochastic has breached the oversold area. The Alligator indicator has a short bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 108 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.2973 and 1.3189. Long scenario Conservative long above 1.3380 being the last daily fractal high. Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Short scenario Conservative short. The 1.3251 short set up as mentioned in a previous post is in play with projected targets being the envelope and Fibonacci extension. Add shorts beneath 1.3032 being the last daily down fractal. Aggressive short off a pull back into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. GBP/USD Technical analysis by acfx 11/04/2012 Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. The price action has made a higher high. Warning The Alligator is turning neutral. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down. The stochastic is in the lower levels of its neutral zone. The price action rebounded off the top of its envelope. A further test of the envelope cannot be ruled out. The Alligator indicator is turning neutral. As the trend is up, this presents a possible buy zone off a lower time frame. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 104 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5758 and 1.5966. Long scenario Conservative scenario long above 1.6062 being the last daily fractal high. Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5804 being the last daily fractal. Aggressive short neutral. Notes Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend. USD/JPY Technical analysis by acfx 11/04/2012 Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning The Alligator has turned negative. A small head and shoulders pattern may be forming marked by the X sign. Overview The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal. The stochastic has breached the oversold value. The Alligator indicator has turned negative. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.9664. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 79.6936 and 81.6264. Long scenario Conservative long above 83.29 being the last daily fractal high. Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s. Short scenario Conservative short beneath 81.55 being the 3rd April low is in play. Please see chart for target. Aggressive short, neutral. USD/CHF Technical analysis by acfx 11/04/2012 Trend The prevailing Daily trend is short Warning A potential higher low may be forming. The Alligator has turned bullish. Overview The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern. The subsequent potential higher lower of the 2nd April is a further sign that this bullish scenario may about to be played out. The stochastic is in the upper regions of its neutral zone. The Alligator indicator is bullish. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 73 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.9111 and 0.9257. Long scenario Conservative long above 0.9093 is in play. Additional longs above 0.9222 being the last daily fractal high. Please see chart for targets. Aggressive scenario, buy pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off lower time frames. Short scenario Conservative scenario below 9001 being the last daily fractal low. Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s off lower time frames. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2012 April 12th, 2012 By acfx Currencies EUR/USD The euro rose higher against the US dollar, reaching a one-week high of $1.3158 before retreating to $1.3130, leaving the currency within the $1.3030-$1.3165 range seen in the past week. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday provided an reassuring assessment of the U.S. economy after Friday's data showing a sharp slowdown in U.S. jobs creation in March triggered a sell-off in global markets earlier this week. USD/CAD The Canadian dollar fell for the first day this week versus its U.S. counterpart as Crude Oil price dropped from $107 to close to the $100.00, were price has a negative effect on the CAD as Canada is a major exported of Crude to the US. In Canada today, the housing report showed that those 216K new homes were under construction coming in much higher than forecast. In the US, the prices paid for goods imported into the U.S. jumped 1.3% in March, mainly because of higher oil costs, the Labor Department said Wednesday. That compared to a revised 0.1% decrease in February. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-126/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 12, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2012 Daily technical outlook for EURUSD as at 12th April 2012 Trend The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning Price action has put in a lower high. A breach of the 15th March swing low will confirm a new down trend. Possible head and shoulders pattern is forming. The alligator indicator has turned negative. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lows since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high which is a warning sign of a possible reversion to the previous multi month down trend. The price action is now broken back into the top of its regression channel. The stochastic has breached the oversold area. The Alligator indicator has a short bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 106 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3003 and 1.3215. Long scenario Ø Conservative long above 1.3380 being the last daily fractal high. Ø Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Short scenario Ø Conservative short. The 1.3251 short set up as mentioned in a previous post is in play with projected targets being the envelope and Fibonacci extension. Add shorts beneath 1.3032 being the last daily down fractal. Ø Aggressive short off a pull back into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-126/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2012 EUR/USD technical analysis The stochastic is in the lower levels of its neutral area. The Alligator indicator has a short bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 108 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3029 and 1.3245. Long scenario § Conservative long above 1.3212 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long neutral. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 1.2994 being the last daily fractal low. § Aggressive short off a pull back into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Notes there is nothing new to report from previous day’s analysis. To know more about the other currencies and the commodities, stocks and indices visit the following link: http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-128/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2012 EuR/USD Trend The prevailing Daily trend is short. Warning The 9th April Higher Low (HL) and 12th April Potential Lower High (PLH) proved to be market noise. The 27th March Lower High (LH) and the 16th April Lower Low (LL) is indicative for further downward movement. The price action has however broken it down channel. Overview The daily chart had been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high (SH) followed by a lower swing low (SL) breach which is sufficient information to deduce that EURUSD has reverted to the previous multi month down trend. The price has broken it’s down trend channel. How the swings play out over the next few days will give us further guidance on for broader market bias. The stochastic is in the mid level of its neutral area. The Alligator indicator is turning from a short to a neutral bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 108 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3110 and 1.3326. Long scenario Conservative long above 1.3212 being the last daily fractal high is in play. Aggressive long neutral. Short scenario Conservative short beneath 1.2994 being the last daily fractal low. Aggressive short off a pull back into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. to know about other currencies visit the link: http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-129/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 24, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2012 EUR/USD Trend The prevailing Daily trend is short. Warning We are awaiting for Lower High confirmation. Not much to report. The 9th April Higher Low (HL) and 12th April Potential Lower High (PLH) proved to be market noise. The 27th March Lower High (LH) and the 16th April Lower Low (LL) is indicative for further downward movement. The price action has however broken it’s down channel. Overview The daily chart had been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high (SH) followed by a lower swing low (SL) breach which is sufficient information to deduce that EURUSD has reverted to the previous multi month down trend. The price has broken it’s down trend channel. How the swings play out over the next few days will give us further guidance on for broader market bias. The stochastic is in the mid level of its neutral area. The Alligator indicator is turning from a short to a neutral bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 105 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3051 and 1.3261. Long scenario § REVISED ENTRY. Conservative long above 1.3226 being the last daily fractal high is in play. § Aggressive long neutral. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 1.2994 being the last daily fractal low. § Aggressive short off a pull back into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-130/ GBP/USD Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. The price action has made a higher high (HH). Warning Price extended from the deferred MA’s and close to a previous potential target. There is nothing new to report. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down. The stochastic has breached its overbought area. There is a possible negative divergence setting up. As per a previous post, the price action retested the top of its envelope. The Alligator indicator is bullish. As the trend is up, the preferred strategy is to purchase any pull backs into the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 95 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.6036 and 1.6226. Long scenario § Conservative scenario. Long above 1.6149 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5818 being the last daily fractal. § Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s. Notes Shorts are counter to the prevailing trend. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-130/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 25, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2012 EUR/USD Trend The prevailing Daily trend is short. Warning We are awaiting for Lower High confirmation. Not much to report. The 9th April Higher Low (HL) and 12th April Potential Lower High (PLH) proved to be market noise. The 27th March Lower High (LH) and the 16th April Lower Low (LL) is indicative for further downward movement. The price action has however broken it’s down channel. Overview The daily chart had been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high (SH) followed by a lower swing low (SL) breach which is sufficient information to deduce that EURUSD has reverted to the previous multi month down trend. The price has broken it’s down trend channel. How the swings play out over the next few days will give us further guidance on for broader market bias. The stochastic is in the mid level of its neutral area. The Alligator indicator is turning from a short to a neutral bias. The preferred strategy is to sell pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 105 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3051 and 1.3261. Long scenario § REVISED ENTRY. Conservative long above 1.3226 being the last daily fractal high is in play. § Aggressive long neutral. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 1.2994 being the last daily fractal low. § Aggressive short off a pull back into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-130/ USD/JPY Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. Warning The Alligator has turned negative. As per a previous posting a small head and shoulders formed marked by the X signs. The projected target was reached. A potential Lower High is forming. Overview The daily chart as defined by a normalized swing count has been choppy for some time prior to this pairs bullish break out with the breach of the 9th September swing high being a warning sign of a potential trend reversal. The subsequent retracement came close to the 50% Fibonacci level. A have a potential lower high forming. A breach of the 16th April lows can be viewed as a downside reversion. The stochastic had breached the oversold value and has turned up into the lower levels of its neutral zone. The Alligator indicator has turned negative. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 0.6657. This implies that USDJPY could potentially trade between 80.5043and 81.8357. Long scenario § Conservative long above 81.19 being the last daily fractal high is in play. New long above 81.77. § Aggressive long neutral into the deferred MA’s off as lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 80.29 being the last daily fractal low. § An aggressive short, short pullback into the deferred MA’s in lower time frames. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-130/ USD/CHF Trends The prevailing Daily trend is neutral. Warning A potential higher low may be forming. The Alligator has turned neutral from bullish. Overview The daily chart has been in a downtrend defined by USDCHF putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows since the breach of the 21st December swing low. However the 15th March swing high breach could be a warning sign that this short down trend is nothing more than a bullish continuation pattern. The subsequent higher lower of the 2nd April was followed by false swings on the 5th April and 12th April. The stochastic is in the upper regions of its neutral zone. The Alligator indicator has turned neutral from bullish. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 75 pips. This implies that USDCHF could potentially trade between 0.9059 and 0.9209. Long scenario § Conservative long above 0.9251 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long buy pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off lower time frames. Short scenario § As per a previous posting, a conservative short below 9091 is in play. New short beneath 0.9082 being the last daily fractal. § Aggressive short neutral. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-130/ GBP/USD Trends The prevailing Daily trend is long. The price action has made a higher high (HH). Warning Price extended from the deferred MA’s and close to a previous potential target. There is nothing new to report. Overview The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down. The stochastic has breached its overbought area. There is a possible negative divergence setting up. As per a previous post, the price action retested the top of its envelope. The Alligator indicator is bullish. As the trend is up, the preferred strategy is to purchase any pull backs into the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 95 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.6036 and 1.6226. Long scenario § Conservative scenario. Long above 1.6149 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5818 being the last daily fractal. § Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-130/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted April 27, 2012 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2012 EUR/USD Trend The Swing strategy. Short. The Alligator strategy. Long. Warning Topping candle formation forming on the daily chart. Overview Swing Strategy: The daily chart had been in an uptrend defined by EURUSD putting in a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) since the breach of the 21st December swing high. However the pair has just put in a lower swing high (SH) followed by a lower swing low (SL) breach which is sufficient information to deduce that EURUSD has reverted to the previous multi month down trend. The price has broken it’s down trend channel. How the swings play out over the next few days will give us further guidance on for broader market bias. Alligator Strategy: The Alligator indicator is turning from a neutral to a long bias. The preferred strategy is to buy pullbacks into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame or the break out if the last daily fractal high. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 96 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.3124 and 1.3316. Long scenario § Conservative long above 1.3226 being the last daily fractal high is in play. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 1.2994 being the last daily fractal low. § Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s off a lower time frame. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-133/ GBP/USD Trends The Swing strategy. Long The Alligator strategy. Long. Warning Price extended from the deferred MA’s and broken the 161.8% fib target. The stochastic has breached its overbought area. Price action retested and broken the top of its envelope. Overview Swing Strategy: The daily chart has been in an uptrend defined by GBPUSD putting in a series of higher highs and higher lowers since the breach of the 21st December swing high with the 12th March low being seen as a fake break down. Alligator Strategy: The Alligator indicator is bullish. As the trend is up, the preferred strategy is to purchase any pull backs into the deferred MA’s or buy break outs of the current daily fractal high. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 92 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.6092 and 1.6276. Long scenario § Conservative scenario neutral. § Aggressive long wait for a pull back into the deferred MA’s and identify entry off a lower time frame. Short scenario § Conservative short, trade beneath 1.5818 being the last daily fractal. § Aggressive short into the deferred MA’s. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-133/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted May 8, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 8, 2012 EUR/USD Trend The Swing strategy. Short. The Alligator strategy. Short. Warning News based large weekend gap down. A potential positive divergence is forming. Overview Swing Strategy:The The 1st May Lower higher has now been confirmed by this yesterday’s gap down and breach of the 16th April low. A gap fill and further downside momentum over the next few days would not be unexpected. Alligator Strategy: The Alligator indicator has turned from a neutral to a short bias. Price extended from the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 91 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.2959 and 1.3141. Long scenario § Conservative long above 1.3283 being the last daily fractal high. § Aggressive long into the deferred MA’s. Short scenario § Conservative short beneath 1.3157 is in play. Further shorts neutral. § Aggressive short pullbacks into the deferred MA’s. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-140/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted May 23, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2012 EUR/USD Swing Strategy: The 16th January prior low at 1.2624 is now a price magnet for continued short bias. That the price action has now rebounded off the lower band of the envelope after 12 lower lows since the 1st May high may give bull’s encouragement to participate in a corrective rally with targets to the upper boundary of the regression channel and then to resistance at 1.2970. Alligator Strategy: The Alligator indicator has turned from a neutral to a short bias. Price extended from the deferred MA’s. Possible range The daily range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 101 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.2582 and 1.2784. http://blog.acfx.com/technical-analysis/daily-technical-analysis-150/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted May 29, 2012 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2012 Currencies EUR/USD The euro was poised for the biggest monthly decline since September, before a sale of Italian debt tomorrow and data this week forecast to confirm that the prolonged debt crisis is hurting the region’s economy.The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.2528 as of 11:48 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday after touching $1.2496 on May 25, the lowest since July 6, 2010. It has lost 5.4 percent in May, set for the biggest monthly drop since September. AUD/USD and NZD/USD The Australian and New Zealand dollars slid versus the majority of their major peers as concern Europe’s fiscal turmoil is spreading and hurting economic growth curbed demand for higher-yielding assets.Australia’s currency slid 0.2 percent to 98.33 U.S. cents, while New Zealand’s dollar dropped 0.3 percent to 76 U.S. cents. EUR/JPY The 17-nation currency was 0.2 percent from the lowest since July 2010 after yield premiums on Spain’s securities over Germany’s rose to the most in 17 years.The euro traded at 99.56 yen after having lost 2 percent in the past five days to 99.67 yesterday. http://blog.acfx.com/daily-market-outlook Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted June 6, 2012 Author Report Share Posted June 6, 2012 June 6th, 2012 market outlook by ACFX Currencies EUR/USD The dollar slid versus most of its 16 major peers as Asian stocks advanced amid speculation officials from the world’s leading economies will collaborate on a response to Europe’s crisis, damping demand for haven assets. The dollar lost 0.3 percent to $1.2488 per euro as of 11:12 a.m. in Tokyo. The U.S. currency fell 0.1 percent to 78.70 yen. The euro gained 0.2 percent to 98.29 yen after rising 1.3 percent in the previous three days. The so-called Aussie climbed 1 percent to 98.40 U.S. cents and advanced 1 percent to 77.46 yen. To read about more currency pair , commodities and equities follow the link: http://blog.acfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted June 7, 2012 Author Report Share Posted June 7, 2012 une 7th, 2012 Currencies EUR/USD The dollar was within 0.1 percent of a more than one-week low against the euro on bets Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke today may signal more stimulus is needed to spur a recovery in the world’s largest economy. The dollar was little changed at $1.2580 per euro as of 10:38 a.m. in Tokyo from the close in New York yesterday, when it sank 1 percent and touched $1.2586, the weakest since May 28. USD/CAD Canada’s dollar appreciated for a third day versus its U.S. counterpart, the longest streak since April, as speculation global policy makers will take steps to spur economic growth propelled equities and commodities. Canada’s currency, nicknamed the loonie, rose 1 percent to C$1.0276 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto, its biggest intraday move since April 17. One Canadian dollar buys 97.33 U.S. cents USD/JPY The yen declined versus most of its 16 major counterparts as Asian stocks extended a global rally, damping demand for lower-yielding currencies. The U.S. currency added 0.2 percent to 79.36 yen. The 17-nation euro rose 0.2 percent to 99.83 yen. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.2 percent to 99.50 U.S. cents. http://blog.acfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indrajeet Posted June 11, 2012 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2012 June 11, 2012 Currencies EUR/USD The euro rose against most of its major counterparts after European governments agreed to provide Spain with a bailout loan. The euro reached $1.2671, the highest since May 23, before trading at $1.2631 as of 1:36 p.m. in Tokyo, 0.9 percent higher than the June 8 close in New York. EUR/JPY The 17-nation currency climbed to a two-week high after Spain asked for as much as 100 billion euros ($126 billion) to save its banking system, making it the fourth member in the currency bloc to seek a rescue. The euro jumped 1.1 percent to 100.59 yen. USD/JPY The dollar and yen fell on decreased demand for refuge assets as Asian shares rallied. The dollar added 0.2 percent to 79.64 yen. http://blog.acfx.com/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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