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AUD/USD: sellers at 0.7730/40 – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares the technical outlook and key levels for AUD/USD, explaining that the current price action is mostly corrective and that the pair might see selling interest around 0.7730/40 levels.

Key Quotes

“The Australian dollar advances to fresh daily highs against the greenback, with the pair also presenting a short term bullish tone, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price accelerates above its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators extend above their mid-lines.”

“In the 4 hours chart the price is advancing above a flat 20 SMA, although indicators remain in neutral territory, suggesting the upward movement is mostly corrective, with a strong resistance level now in the 0.7730/40 area, where selling interest is expected to resume.”

“Support levels: 0.7640 0.7600 0.7575”

“Resistance levels: 0.7690 0.7735 0.7770”





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Mar 16,2015
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EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0600



FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD made a brief appearance above 1.0600 at the beginning of the New York session as the euro stages a mild bounce versus its major competitors, although it failed to hold above the psychological level for long.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.0615 but quickly dipped back below 1.0600. However, the downside was contained by the 1.0560 area, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation in the absence of major indicators or news. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0580, still up 0.83% on the day and off a 12-year low of 1.0461 struck late on Friday.

The latest string of disappointing US data - industrial production and NAHB housing market index - had little impact on the dollar as EUR/USD investors' attention turns to Eurozone CPI on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.





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Mar 16,2015
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EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0600



FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD made a brief appearance above 1.0600 at the beginning of the New York session as the euro stages a mild bounce versus its major competitors, although it failed to hold above the psychological level for long.

EUR/USD peaked at 1.0615 but quickly dipped back below 1.0600. However, the downside was contained by the 1.0560 area, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation in the absence of major indicators or news. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0580, still up 0.83% on the day and off a 12-year low of 1.0461 struck late on Friday.

The latest string of disappointing US data - industrial production and NAHB housing market index - had little impact on the dollar as EUR/USD investors' attention turns to Eurozone CPI on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.





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Mar 16,2015
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USD/JPY consolidates in a narrow range Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that short-term technicals for USD/JPY remains bullish as the pair consolidates in a tight range after BoJ highlights CPI risks.

Key Quotes

JPY is flat following the BoJs policy decision to maintain the pace of QE at 80trn. The statement tone softened the near term outlook for inflation, and comments from Gov. Kuroda hinted to the risk of a temporary dip into deflation.

Domestic data have shown signs of improvement, with both leading and coincident indicators risingthe latter reaching its highest level since March 2014 to fully recover the consumption tax hike decline.

Near term risk centers on trade (7:50pm EST) as well as the broader tone heading into Wednesdays Fed events.

USDJPY short-term technicals: bullishsignals are broadly bullish, however we note the increasingly tightened range in USDJPY following the March 12 hammer doji.

Support is expected at the 9 day MA (121.12) and we await a break above the March 10 high near 122.00.





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Mar 17,2015
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Long USD/CAD, target 1.30 – Westpac



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Westpac Team maintains their long USD/CAD position, targeting 1.30 levels on a 1-3m horizon.

Key Quotes

“We continue to hold long USD/CAD opened at 1.2506. New lows in key energy prices, soggy growth updates out of China and likely further firming in June 2015 Fed lift off odds should be enough to keep USD/CAD well supported. 1.30 on 1-3 month horizon very achievable.”





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Yen remains pressured – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With fiscal and monetary policies failing to pump up investment in Japan, oil continuing its slump, FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Dhwani Mehta, explains that the Yen will remain under pressure.

Key Quotes

“Japan's economy grew at an annualised 1.5% in the final quarter of 2014, missing expectations of 2.2%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew by 0.4% in December Q4 2014.”

“Although, consumer spending in the October-December quarter was revised upwards, weaker than expected capital expenditure data suggests that the fiscal and monetary policies have so far been unsuccessful to stimulate higher level of investment in the country. Capital expenditure fell 0.1% as compared to expectations of an expansion of 0.3%.”

“Moreover, falling oil prices continues to put the central bank under additional pressure. The Bank of Japan Deputy Governor, Hiroshi said that the BOJ must ease monetary policy further if cheap oil prices weaken its efforts to boost inflation expectations.”

“BOJ Nakaso noted, "Oil price falls may push down prices in the short-term but will accelerate inflation in the somewhat long-term perspective because they benefit an oil-importing economy like Japan", “We will adjust monetary policy if the price trend changes and if further action is warranted to achieve our 2 percent inflation target at an early date".”





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Kiwi declines as dairy prices fall for first time in 6 weeks



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The NZD/USD hit a session low of 0.7322 after the Fonterra global dairy trade (GDT) price index registered a fall of 8.8% at the latest auction concluded today. This was the first fall in dairy prices in six weeks.

NZD/USD: Falls below 100-MA on hourly chart

The pair fell below the hourly 100-MA located at 0.7348 after the disappointing GDT auction. Moreover, the hourly 100-MA had acted as a strong support on Friday. The NZD/USD is likely to extend losses further as the weak GDP auction results come ahead of the FOMC meeting. The USD could be bought as we move closer to the FOMC meeting as markets widely expect the Fed to drop the word “patient” from its forward guidance.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 0.7311, under which losses could be extended to 0.7190. On the flip side, a rise above 0.7348 (100-MA) could see the pair re-test 0.7400 levels.





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Mar 17,2015
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Wall Street turns risk averse ahead of Fed meeting



FXStreet (Mumbai) - US stock markets fell on Tuesday along with the fall in crude prices as investors looked ahead to the two-day Fed meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 194 points, or 1.08%, to 17,782.50. The S&P 500 shed 16.99 points, or 0.8%, to 2064.20. The Nasdaq Composite fell 20.48, or 0.4%, to 4909.75.

The fall in the oil prices to six-year lows weighed over the energy stocks. Energy companies in the S&P 500 lost 0.8%. Shares of Apple Inc. gained 1.1% on reports that the company is in talks with programmers to offer a slimmed-down bundle of TV networks this fall.

Meanwhile, investors have also turned cautious as the two-day FOMC meeting begins today. The markets are widely expecting the Fed to drop the word “patient” from its forward guidance, which shall open doors for an interest rate hike at any of the subsequent meetings.

Recently, the equities have shown signs of risk aversion on the increased possibility of an interest rate hike post the release of February’s jobs report. The blue-chip index has fallen 1.7% from its March 2 record.






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AUD/USD technical targets beyond the range - CB



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that there has not been a change in the technicals for AUD/USD and notes the potential outcomes beyond the recent ranges.

Key Quotes:

"AUD/USD no change, last week the market charted a marginal new low for the year (and new 5 year low) that was not confirmed by the RSI."

"It is possible that the pattern developing is a potential falling wedge reversal pattern, but only a close above the downtrend at 0.7789 will confirm the pattern. Failure again here will leave the downtrend still intact and the market capable of sliding to the base of the 2 year down channel at 0.7528, which we would expect to see this hold the initial test."

"Below 0.7528 targets then 0.7183, 61.8% retracement of the move up from 2001. Above the downtrend (0.7812) would introduce scope to the 0.8034 7th January low. A close above 0.8035 is needed to alleviate downside pressure."





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United States 4-Week Bill Auction increased to 0.05% from previous 0.015%



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EUR/NOK points downwards longer term Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at the Nordic Danske Bank expect the cross to inch higher in the near term, although in the longer horizon the NOK might drag the cross lower.

Key Quotes

We expect Norges Bank (NB) to deliver a 25bp rate cut on Thursday.

NB is set to keep the easing bias by presenting a new rate path with a 50% implied probability of another rate cut before June. However, we do not expect Norges Bank to cut rates further post March.

The primary risk to our projection is that of NB leaving the rate unchanged. First, NB could put less emphasis on the Regional survey and more on other key figures. For instance, the import-weighted NOK is roughly 3.5% weaker than assumed in the December report. This will partly counteract the downward adjustment of the interest rate path, and also reduce the possibility of a rate cut.

Second, the increasing pressure in the housing market in the aftermath of the December cut could keep NB on hold until the recession is confirmed.

We expect EUR/NOK to bounce around the NB meeting before a trend lower in the cross constitutes. Leverage funds should look to sell EUR/NOK post the NB meeting. Corporates should hedge NOK income via option structures that maintain a profit potential.





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Mar 18,2015
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The big picture for USD to stay intact post FOMC – BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, comments on the probable impact on USD post the FOMC meet today.

Key Quotes

“The speed of gains for the US dollar is also likely to be a topic raised at the press conference (we do not expect reference to the dollar in the statement) and we would not be surprised to hear Chair Yellen highlight the disinflationary/deflationary impetus the move will bring.”

“Export orders in the ISM manufacturing report also shows the potential for some slowing in exports due to dollar gains. So purely from the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate, the dollar may start to play some minor role in determining the timing of lift-off.”

“However, where the Fed is likely to remain positive is on the US labour market. The 5.5% unemployment rate puts us at the top of the long-run estimate of the FOMC (5.2%-5.5%) set in December and that means the domestic economy is on a strong footing.”

“The debate over the exact timing of the first rate increase is likely to continue beyond today but the message that rates will need to move higher this year is also likely to be clear.”

“Hence, the dollar is set to remain well underpinned. The story for the dollar is of course what’s happening in the US relative to elsewhere and the favourable spread dynamic for the dollar is unlikely to change after today.”

“We estimate that the DXY has advanced at its fastest rate in percentage terms over the last eight months since 1980-81 and that scale of speed is unsustainable – some correction or loss of momentum seems plausible but the big picture support for the US dollar is not going to change after today’s FOMC meeting. So any dollar reversal will be temporary and a test of parity in EUR/USD later this year is likely.”





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Mar 18,2015
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Sterling appreciation concerns give BoE Minutes a mildly dovish tone – RBS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the BoE Minutes, Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, notes that the central bank's view regarding the appreciation of GBP being negative for meeting inflation target gave the Minutes a dovish tone.

Key Quotes

“Perhaps the key section in the text of the Minutes was:

‘Sterling had continued to appreciate, primarily versus the euro. . . Although monetary policy at home and abroad was only one of the many factors that influenced the exchange rate, especially in the near term, there was a risk that divergent monetary policy trends, as well as stronger prospects for growth in the United Kingdom than in the euro area, might continue to put upward pressure on the sterling exchange rate.’

‘This had the potential to prolong the period for which CPI inflation would remain below the target and exacerbate the risk that lower expectations of inflation might become more persistent.”

“This echoes the Governor’s observations last week that the currency’s trade-weighted appreciation might require a longer period to elapse before the MPC raises Bank Rate.”

“The MPC’s collective position remains that ‘it was more likely than not that Bank Rate would increase over the next three years’ but there is little to suggest any sense of urgency in terms of pulling the trigger.”






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Mar 18,2015
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BoE’s view on sterling strength to slow EUR/GBP decline – Rabobank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, argues that the EUR/GBP trend might slow down after BoE expressed concerns regarding sterling strength, and further forecasts the pair to head towards 0.70 on a 12-m view.

Key Quotes

“While sterling could find some support from an anticipated upward revisions to growth from the OBR and from a related slight loosening of austerity from the government, the pound is likely to remain far more focussed on central bank policy and the tone of economic data.”

“This morning’s release of UK labour data has brought another encouraging drop in February jobless claims (-3kK). However, it also brought news of a subdued 1.8% 3 m y/y increase in average weekly earnings. Even though the very weak level of CPI inflation ( at 0.3% y/y) suggests that real wages are still pushing higher, the low level of pay increases suggests there could be a feed-through into subdued demand and thus inflation could stay lower for longer.”

“In addition, the minutes of the March BoE MPC flag another downside risk to inflation.”

“In view of the risk that CPI inflation could stay lower for longer, the Bank is now sounding a touch more dovish than it did in its February Inflation Report.”

“For now we stick with the forecast that the BoE will not hike rates before February 2016 and will continue to monitor the tone of both wages and inflation data closely.”

“By making it clear that the Bank is sensitive to the role played by the exchange rate in influencing monetary conditions the MPC should slow the pace of the EUR/GBP downtrend.”

“That said, in view of the ECB’s QE policy and the relative buoyancy of UK growth we continue to exchange EUR/GBP to grind lower this year towards the 0.70 area on a 12 mth view.”






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USD/JPY weakens slightly



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Japanese Yen has gained slightly, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to 121.00 levels as we head closer to the Fed decision.

Weak Treasury yields keep USD under pressure

The weakness in the Treasury yields has kept the greenback under pressure ahead of the Fed meeting. The 10-year yield has weakened 2.2 basis points (bps) to 2.037%, while the 30-year yield has weakened 4.2 bps to 2.574%. The weak yields support the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the USD/JPY pair weakened from a high of 121.39 to trade at 121.15 levels.

Further losses could be seen of the US equity markets begin the day on a negative note ahead of the FOMC statement.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 121.50, above which the pair could rise to 122.00 levels. On the flip side, a break below 120.90 could drive the pair down to 120.50.120.40 levels.





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Short EUR/USD, target 1.0400 – GrowthAces




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The GrowthAces Research Team shares the technical outlook and key levels for EUR/USD, maintaining a bearish outlook on the single currency, targeting 1.0400 levels.

Key Quotes

“The EUR/USD traded in a tight range today. The bearish momentum is intact and we have got short at 1.0630.”

“However, we should know that a strong appreciation of the USD against the rest of the world in the medium term poses a risk to the U.S. economy and may result in capital outflow from U.S. equity market.”

“We should know that dropping “patient” today will not automatically mean a rate hike in June. There will be still a risk of the Fed delaying hikes in case of tighten monetary conditions caused by the USD strength. This risk may weigh on continuation of current strongly bearish EUR/USD trend.”

“Significant technical analysis' levels:

Resistance: 1.0651 (high Mar 17), 1.0684 (high Mar 12), 1.0687 (10-dma)

Support: 1.0551 (session low Mar 17), 1.0457 (low Mar 16), 1.0400 (psychological level).”

“EUR/USD: short at 1.0630, target 1.0400, stop-loss 1.0730, risk factor **”





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Mar 18,2015
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EUR/SEK jumps to 9.3200 on rate cut




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Swedish krona is rapidly depreciating against the euro on Wednesday, sending EUR/SEK to fresh highs around 9.3200.

EUR/SEK stronger post-Riksbank

The cross climbed higher after the Riksbank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bp into the negative territory. The measure caught markets off guards and lifted the cross to 2-week highs around 9.3200. The Nordic central bank also announced sovereign bond purchases with maturities up to 25 year starting in March 26th until May; it also stressed that further measures remain on the table, including FX intervention.

EUR/SEK levels to watch

As of writing the cross is advancing 1.33% at 9.3235 with the next hurdle at 9.3650 (100-d MA) followed by 9.3696 (high Mar.2). On the flip side, a breakdown of 9.2715 (200-d MA) would aim for 9.1580 (low Mar.18).






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Latam central banks in the limelight this week – TDS




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities reviewed the central banks’ monetary policy meetings in the Latam space ahead in the week.

Key Quotes

“On Thursday, we expect the CB of Chile to keep rates on hold at 3.0% in spite of inflation remaining elevated at 4.4% Y/Y in February”.

“Finally on Friday, we expect the CB of Colombia to leave rates unchanged at 4.5%, despite the substantial weakness of COP over recent months”.

“The administration has repeatedly expressed its comfort with the much weaker peso, as the natural shock absorber for the slowdown in economic growth amid much weaker oil prices”.





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Session Recap: USD recovers post-FOMC




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is reclaiming part of the recent sharp losses, intensified yesterday after markets interpreted the FOMC statement and the press conference by Janet Yellen as unexpectedly dovish.

The dollar is markedly up in the G10 space, advancing almost 2% vs. the euro and sending EUR/USD back to the low-1.06s after climbing as high as 1.1060 in the wake of Yellens presser on Thursday. GBP/USD is retaking the mid-1.4800s after bottoming out in the vicinity of the 1.4800 handle earlier on, and USD/JPY is looking to assault 121.00.

Markets in Euroland remain in the positive territory with the exception of the German DAX, while Gold is up almost 1% around $1,160 and the barrel of WTI is down nearly 4% in sub-$43 levels.





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Mar 19,2015
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US Initial Jobless Claims print at 291K, Current Account Deficit rose




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the labor department in the US showed the initial jobless claims in the last week at 291K, compared to the expected figure of 292K. The previous week’s figure was revised upwards from 289K to 290K.

The four week moving average of the initial claims, which gives a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, stood at 304.75K. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose to 2.417M, beating the estimate of 2.410M.

The US current account deficit for the fourth quarter rose to 113.5 billion from the 100.3 billion reported in Q3. Economists had called for the deficit to rise to USD 103.2 billion.





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USD/CAD still targets 1.30 by mid-year – Westpac




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair could reach the key 1.30 handle by the mid of the current year, according to Strategist at Westpac Richard Franulovich.

Key Quotes

“USD/CAD may well trade down to key support around 1.2350 but suspect it will be a grudging move and CAD will lag much of the G10, sluggish energy prices the key factor likely to hamper CAD prospects”.

“1.30 still the target mid-year as the implosion in Canada’s energy patch increasingly bleeds into the broader economy and likely triggers a dovish tilt by the BoC at upcoming meetings”.





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Brent Crude back below USD 55.00/barrel




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent crude prices fell below USD 55/barrel on Thursday after Kuwait backed the OPEC’s decision to keep production levels steady back in November, thereby bringing the concern of supply glut back into the spotlight.

Brent prices as well as WTI Crude prices had rallied sharply on Wednesday after the slightly dovish statement from the Federal Reserve led to a broad based weakness in the US dollar. However, gains were erased today; partly due to a rebound in the US dollar and partly due to comments from Kuwait’s Oil Minister.

"We don’t want to lose our share in the Market," Ali al-Omair, Kuwait’s Oil Minister told reporters on Thursday. Meanwhile, there is also a possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran, which could add up to 1 million barrels of oil supply to the market.

The threat of supply glut led Brent Crude lower to USD 54.51/barrel, while WTI Crude fell to USD 45.18/barrel.

Brent Crude Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 55.67 (10-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 56.61 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 53.09 (Feb. 11 low) and 52.50 levels.





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USD/JPY finds resistance at 121.00




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY pair extended gains and printed a fresh daily high at 121.00 after the release of jobless claims and current account data in the US. The 121.00 zone capped the upside and pushed the back toward 120.50.

After Wall Street opening bell the pair retreated and dropped to 120.69. Currently trades at 120.75, up 0.55% for the day, trading slightly below the level it had before the decision of the Federal Reserve.

Greenback regained much of the lost ground on Thursday but lost strength during the last hour, limiting the upside in the USD/JPY pair. The US dollar is rising across the board on Thursday; but the yen is among the best performers.

USD/JPY technical levels

To the upside, the immediate resistance lies at 121.00 (daily high) and above here at 121.40 followed by March highs located at 122.00. On the opposite direction support might lie at 120.30 (intraday level), 120.00, 119.65 and 119.30 (Mar 18 low).





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USD/JPY buy the dips towards 118.50/119.50 – Westpac




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Robert Rennie at Westpac noted the neutral tone in the pair, although recommended buying the pullbacks to 118.50/119.50.

Key Quotes

“Given the BoJ downgrade, CPI will be a key focus next week”.

“With the spread between national-ex and Tokyo-ex collapsing to zero, and oil prices bouncing in Feb, it’s hard to see where the downside will come from for CPI”.

“So key again will be the US$. We thus maintain a neutral stance for USD/JPY for another week, with the buy region 118.50 to 119.50”.




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USD/JPY finds resistance at 121.00




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY pair extended gains and printed a fresh daily high at 121.00 after the release of jobless claims and current account data in the US. The 121.00 zone capped the upside and pushed the back toward 120.50.

After Wall Street opening bell the pair retreated and dropped to 120.69. Currently trades at 120.75, up 0.55% for the day, trading slightly below the level it had before the decision of the Federal Reserve.

Greenback regained much of the lost ground on Thursday but lost strength during the last hour, limiting the upside in the USD/JPY pair. The US dollar is rising across the board on Thursday; but the yen is among the best performers.

USD/JPY technical levels

To the upside, the immediate resistance lies at 121.00 (daily high) and above here at 121.40 followed by March highs located at 122.00. On the opposite direction support might lie at 120.30 (intraday level), 120.00, 119.65 and 119.30 (Mar 18 low).




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