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[OctaFX_Farid]

BI surprises with a rate cut, might cut an additional 50bp – TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Research at TD Securities, expects Bank of Indonesia to cut rates by an additional 50bp, with the central bank drifting slowly to the dovish bandwagon.

Key Quotes

“Bank Indonesia rocked the boat today announcing a surprise 25bp cut of the BI rate and the FASBI rate to 7.50% and 5.50%, respectively, while the Lending Facility rate was held at 8.00%. Though not completely unreasonable, the decision has come against the unanimous consensus view and our own forecast.”

“While we need more time to re-assess Indonesia’s interest rate outlook—and perhaps adjust our USDIDR forecast—we believe there’s a reasonable chance that BI will use time at their disposal to ease policy again until the Fed kick off monetary tightening.”

“We continue to expect a first 25bp hike from the Fed in September, with an incrementally hawkish rhetoric that could defeat any attempt to deliver easing in EMs even before the Fed hikes.”

“That said, we think BI has clearly drifted towards a more dovish rhetoric. With regard to easing rates, BI mentioned that “Such policy measures were instituted based on Bank Indonesia’s conviction that inflation will remain under control at the lower end of the 4±1% range in 2015 and 2016. The current policy direction is consistent with Bank Indonesia’s efforts to reduce the current account deficit to a more sustainable level”.”

“The replacement of ‘such policy is consistent’ with ‘the current policy direction is consistent’ allows us to think that more gradual cuts are in store for the next meetings, provided market conditions remain supportive.”

“We believe that a favourable market response in the coming days will allow BI to cut no less than an additional 50bp, though we need more time to reassess the outlook.”





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Feb 17,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD hitting firm resistance at 1.2445/50



FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CAD is currently trading at 1.2437 with a high of 1.2452 (LND open) and a low of 1.2360.

USD/CAD is rallying with the commodity prices coming off, and oil in particular, with WTI dropping over two bucks in the last couple of hours of trade. Support in funds came in initially in the high 1.2300's after the decline from 1.2440 in earlier trade and this rally puts us back to the start again.

Meanwhile, analyst at TD Securities explained that the short-term technical winds here have been transitioning in the past week or so as USD/CAD has failed to gain traction above 1.26. "Trend momentum signals have slowly started to turn negative on the intraday studies." The analysts went onto to suggest that firm resistance is up ahead. "This all suggests that near-term downside risks are building for USD/CAD, we think. Intraday support at 1.2355/60 may hold for now but we would also expect firm resistance intraday around 1.2445/50."







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Feb 17,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Markets taking Greece in its stride - BBH



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the market appears to be taking in stride the latest setback in negotiations over Greece.

Key Quotes:

"The euro has recouped all the ground lost in thin markets late yesterday when the Eurogroup discussions broke down. Each side has their inviolable principles, and yet some compromise has to be found. It might not be possible to do so on the finance minister level, but may require another heads of state gathering to break the logjam."

"We also note that Greece has been an important catalyst for much of the institutional evolution within Europe since 2010. The framework developed so that Greece can keep its official creditors whole, such as the EFSF and ESM, was rolled out to other countries subsequently. In a similar vein, what is being negotiated now is not only about Greece, but about other anti-austerity parties that may come to power later this year in Spain and Portugal."

"Greece has failed to expose a fissure within the European finance ministers. France and Italy appear somewhat more sympathetic but have not broke ranks. The EC's Juncker and Moscovici reportedly proposed an alternative yesterday that had Greek support met a Eurogroup rejection."







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Feb 17,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD off highs after data



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is giving away part of recent gains vs. the CAD, taking USD/CAD to the area of 1.2430.

USD/CAD eyes on Fed

Data for the month of January was far from supportive of the greenback, showing producer prices and housing sector releases missing expectations. Next of note will be the Capacity Utilization (79.9% exp.) and Industrial Production (0.3% exp.) followed by the FOMC minutes.

On the other side of the border, Canadian Wholesale Sales jumped 2.5% on a monthly basis in December, leaving behind estimates (0.3%) and Novembers print (-0.3%).

USD/CAD key levels

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.51% at 1.2437 and a surpass of 1.2480 (high Feb.17) would open the door to 1.2493 (21-d MA) and then 1.2529 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, the immediate support lines up at 1.2360 (low Feb.17) ahead of 1.2353 (low Feb.3) and finally 1.2302 (Kijun Sen).






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Feb 18,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Strong labour data good for GBP, bad warns of weak productivity – BBH




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman team reviews today’s UK labour data release, noting that the sterling positive numbers might lead GBP/USD towards 1.5500-1.5600 levels, and further adds that the increase in aggregate work hours warns that productivity remains weak.

Key Quotes

“Strong employment and earnings data in the UK lifted sterling to the upper end of its recent range near $1.5450. A break would quickly target the $1.5500-$1.5600 area.”

“The claimant count fell by 38.6k, which is about 50% more than the consensus expected, and the December decline was revised to 35.8k from 29.7k.”

“The unemployment rate fell to a new cyclical low of 5.7% (ILO measure).”

“Earnings growth, reported with an extra month lag, rose 2.1% at a year-over-year pace in Q4 14. The consensus was for a 1.7% increase.”

“The jump in earnings comes as the BOE minutes highlighted the expected upward pressure on earnings (toward 4%) and the rise of a jump in inflation when the oil increase drops out.”

“There are two cautionary elements. First, the increase in aggregate hours worked warns that productivity remains weak. This speaks to the growth capacity of the UK economy.”

“Second, the labor market may be tightening, but the earnings growth was flattered by bonuses. Excluding bonus, earnings growth actually slipped to 1.7% from 1.8%.”

“That said, there is probably more room for interest rate expectations to adjust, and that means upward pressure on UK rates, especially at the short end.”

“Gilt yields are also backing up, and at 1.81% today, the 10-year yield at its highest level this year. This represents about a 50 bp increase since the Jan 30 low.”






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Feb 18,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold recovers slightly after weak US housing data




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices erased part of its losses after the weaker-than-expected housing data in the US pushed the Treasury yields lower.

Safe havens rise on US housing data

Gold prices recovered slightly along with a fall in the US Treasury yields after the data in the US showed housing starts fell 2.0%, beating the estimate of 1.7% fall, while building permits fell 0.7% against expectation of a 0.9% rise. Gold prices recovered from the low of USD 1204.3 to trade at USD 1208 levels. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from the high of 2.164% to trade at 2.122%.

Gold Technical Levels

The metal currently trades at USD 1207.6, down 0.08% for the day. The immediate resistance is seen at 1213.82 (100-DMA) and 1219.6 (50% retracement of 1131.9-1307.8) levels. On the flip side, a break below 1198.9 (61.8% retracement of 1131.9-1307.8) could push the pair down to 1186.3 (Dec. 5th low).







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Feb 18,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

FX space key headlines of events - Scotiabank




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist, Managing Director at Scotiabank noted the main headlines around the FX market.

Key Quotes:

"USD is strong as 10‐yr yields flirt with a break above the 100‐day MA and the market looks to the FOMC minutes for judging a June hike."

"FX markets have been trading in ranges for the last month and it is a break of these ranges that will be important."

"CAD is soft supported by the broad USD move and yield spreads. Oil is still important but correlations suggest shift to rates and USD. "

"EUR is soft but still within yesterdays range. Data was limited but media reports suggest Greece planning to ask for loan extension."

"EUR: ECB to release first set of minutes Thursday at 7:30am EST."

"GBP is strong as employment and wages surprises higher and BoE minutes provide few surprises."

"EUR/GBP reaches fresh lows with ongoing downside risk."

"USD/JPY is flat as the BoJ holds policy and highlights desire for FX stability but risk of further easing are ever present."

"AUD is soft but within Tuesdays range with few developments."

"CNY is flat as China enters holiday week."




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Feb 18,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Higher Eurozone PMIs support the stronger recovery view - Danske




FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the improving PMIs and the expected increase in Manufacturing PMIs ahead, signals towards a stronger Q1 growth in the Eurozone.

Key Quotes

The euro area composite PMI increased to 53.5 in February from 52.6 in January and is now at the highest level since summer last year. The increase was driven by the services PMI, which rose to 53.9 from 52.7 whereas the manufacturing PMI was almost unchanged at 51.1.

For the manufacturing PMI the details were better than the headline figure. First, new orders increased a bit, driven by higher export orders.

Added to this, there was a decline in stocks of finished goods implying the order-inventory balance increased. This now points to an increase in manufacturing PMI going forward.

The stronger services PMI was driven by higher future business expectations and incoming new business, but there was also an increase in backlog of work. The services PMI employment index increased to the highest level since May 2011.

The increase in services PMI is likely to reflect the boost to private consumption from the decline in the oil price and it suggests private consumption will increase further in Q1.

The improvement in the PMIs and the signal that manufacturing PMI could increase further is in line with our view that euro GDP growth will be strong in Q1.

For 2015 we expect GDP growth of 1.5% which is above consensus at 1.2%.








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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EIA fails to match API’s high oil inventory numbers, but overall tone intact - KBC




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Team comments on the Energy Information Agency’s oil inventory data release and its impact on the market.

Key Quotes

“Although yesterday’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) data did not confirm Wednesday’s report from the American Petroleum Institute as far as the volume of increase in crude oil inventories is concerned (the API report had foreseen more than 14 million barrels build in inventories which, if it had been confirmed, would have marked an all-time high), it left the overall message intact.”

“The data showed about twice as large build in stocks than the one that had been anticipated by analysts at the beginning of this week.”

“The oil price therefore fell by about 0.5% yesterday while the US benchmark WTI even lost about 1.9% as inventories in Cushing, the delivery location of NYMEX WTI futures contract, rose by about 3.6 million barrels.”

“Rising stocks in Cushing suggest that traders have recently been taking advantage of relatively wide contango in the front-end of oil forward curve.”

“All in all, recent EIA data reminded us that although the supply elasticity of “shale oil” likely is much higher than that of “conventional oil”, it will take some time before the impact of lower oil prices on the US supply is more pronounced. For example, the data showed that US domestic crude oil production increased by more than 800 thousand barrels per day visà- vis June 2014. Let us recall that in the meantime, the oil price fell by about one half…”








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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

CAD rallies, but within monthly range – Scotiabank




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares the outlook and key technical levels for USD/CAD, noting that the core risk for CAD lies in Yellen and Poloz’s speech.

Key Quotes

“Increasingly the focus for CAD traders is over the outlook for monetary policy, making next week’s testimony by Chair Yellen and speech by Governor Poloz core risks. Expectations for a second interest rate cut in Canada have remained relatively constant over the last week, with the market pricing in at least one more cut over the next six months. This combined with oil prices that have stabilized but could still be pressured lower, leave CAD vulnerable.”

“USDCAD short‐term technicals: mixed—likely reflecting the range bound environment that USDCAD has been trading within.”

“Support lies at 1.2380 with resistance at 1.2504 (the 21‐day MA); however neither of these levels are particularly strong.”






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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

An agreement today won’t mark the end to ‘Greek’ problems – DB




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Team comments on the relevance of the Greece’s loan-extension request, noting that even if an agreement is reached today, it will only be the first step to a long road of discussions.

Key Quotes

“Assuming an agreement is indeed reached, it is important to point out that this will only mark the very first step in what is still a long road to resolution to the Greek crisis.”

“First, it is unlikely Europeans approve any fund disbursements or an increase in t-bill issuance after the loan extension has been granted. Fund disbursement will require the completion of prior actions by the Greek government. These remain to be specified and negotiated -"part two" of the three-step process we have been describing.”

“Second, the Greek government will need to be able to pass any such agreements through the Greek parliament, starting with the loan extension itself which will need to be ratified ("part three". Completing all steps in this three-part process will be a challenge.”

“On the positive side, a potential "agreement" tomorrow will provide a little breathing room to the Greek financial system."

“Still, even ongoing ECB funding will only buy a few weeks, because it will not solve the Greek government's exceptionally tight cash position. Press reports suggest that the government will struggle to fulfill financial obligations beyond March, with a potential default likely to lead to a suspension of ELA funding.”

“Over the next few weeks, Greece will, therefore, need to achieve substantial progress on fleshing out the exact parameters of the program as well as voting legislation through parliament.”

“For this to materialize, agreement needs to be reached at Eurogroup, with another breakdown again bringing ECB liquidity provision back into immediate question.”






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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD: 0.8034 is key to alleviate downside pressure - CB




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD continues to hold sideways to higher near term.

Key Quotes:

"The market recently again held over the base of the 2013-2015 down channel at 0.7597."

"Above the 20 day ma lies the downtrend at 0.7990 and the 7th Jan low at 0.8034."

"A close above here is needed to alleviate downside pressure."

"Below 0.7597 we have very little support apart from the 0.7335, 50% retracement of the move up from 2001."





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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

DN to remain ‘on-hold’ for the next 12 months – Danske Bank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Danmarks Nationalbank could refrain from cutting further its key rate for the next twelve months, suggested Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“The net position indicates that FX intervention purchases have been above DKK100bn since the 25bp rate cut on 5 February”.

“Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) has refrained from cutting the key rate despite this significant inflow, which indicates that FX intervention purchases appears to be the preferred tool to fend off DKK appreciation pressure”.

“Although further rate cuts cannot be completely ruled out, the bar is high and it will likely take an acceleration in inflow for DN to cut further. We thus expect the bank to keep rates unchanged on a 12M time horizon”.






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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY approaches weekly lows




FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY has fallen to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session as a cautious tone dominates markets as Eurogroup and Greece continue to negotiate a loan agreement.

USD/JPY is tracking US Tsy yields down, having dropped to a 3-day low of 118.29 in recent dealings despite above expectations Markit manufacturing PMI data. With the calendar empty for the rest of the day, Greek headlines will likely drive price action during the next hours. The Eurogroup is scheduled to meet at 16:30 GMT.

USD/JPY is currently trading at the 118.35 zone, recording a 0.48% loss on the day. The pair is also on track to post its second weekly loss in a row, extending a correction from above 120.00.

USD/JPY technical levels

As for technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 118.23 (Feb 17 low) and 118.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 118.77 (intraday level), 119.00/05 (psychological level/200-hour SMA) and 119.17 (Feb 19 high).






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Feb 20,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/NZD drops to fresh lows on falling commodity prices




FXStreet (Mumbai) - AUD/NZD dropped in the European session, hovering near fresh session lows largely on the back of Aussie weakness, dragged down by declining commodity prices.

AUD/NZD inches towards multi-year lows

Currently, the AUD/NZD cross trades lower by -0.50% at 1.0370 levels, with a days high of 1.0431 and days lows posted at 1.0364. The cross in AUD/NZD edged lower, mainly pulled down by the Australian dollar on declining prices of bullion and copper, with the safe-haven appeal of bullion easing given the euro zone-Greece deal late on Friday, as investors moved their investments to riskier assets.

On the other side of the story, NZD also remains weak against the US dollar. However, the losses in the Aussie are greater than that in the NZD/USD pair. At the moment, AUD/USD trades -0.65% lower at 0.7790 levels, while NZD/USD trades -0.15% at 0.7514 levels.

AUD/NZD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.0431 levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.0445 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.0347 levels, from here it to below 1.0300 levels.






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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold recovers slightly ahead of the US data




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered from the low of USD 1190.70/Oz to trade at USD 1196/Oz levels ahead of the regional manufacturing indices and existing home sales data in the US.

Strong USD weighs over Gold prices

The yellow metal came under pressure due to the strength in the US dollar ahead of the Fed. Chairman Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to the Congress tomorrow. Furthermore, the fading concern regarding the Greek debt deal is capping the safe haven demand for the metal. The metal could extend losses ahead if the US Chicago and Dallas activity indices print higher than expected, while the Existing home sales rise more than the expected contraction of 0.8% month-on-month.

In the meantime, the positive action in the US equity futures and other major European equity markets could keep the metal under pressure.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1200, above which gains could be extended to 1206.3 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1190 and 1186 levels.






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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD firmer ahead of Yellen – TDS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, mentions that Yellen’s testimony is expected to be a little hawkish relative to expectations, with USD trading firmer at the start of the week, already discounting the expected tone of the speech.

Key Quotes

“We expect the Fed messaging to remain relatively upbeat; market expectations may be coloured by the release of the “low for longer” minutes from the January FOMC last week but it is important to remember that after the January policy meeting took place, the January NFP report delivered some solid-looking data.”

“We think Yellen’s comments may appear a little hawkish relative to market expectations and we continue to view the Fed as moving towards rate lift off later this year (Q3).”

“The USD is trading firmly at the start of the week and US 10y yields are nudging close to recent highs, perhaps already discounting the expected tone of the comments.”






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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD deeply oversold – FXMarketAlerts




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The FXMarketAlerts Team gives the technical outlook and key levels for EUR/USD.

Key Quotes

“Mkt. has been under pressure all morning with sub 1.13 reached.”

“Indicators are at extremes now so we doubt 1.1278 will give way without a decent reaction first. Res. is in the 1.1345/60 band.”

“Sup. is at the previously mentioned 1.1278 closely followed by 1.1260/69.”

“R1: 1.1345/60 intraday level”

“R2: 1.1390/95 intraday level”

“R3: 1.1412 today high”

“S1: 1.1278 Fri low”

“S2: 1.1260/9 * 9 Feb low”

“S3: 1.1223 * 27 Jan low”







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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Technical outlook: Short-term treasuries oversold – RBS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O’Donnell, Head of US Treasury Strategy at RBS, gives the technical outlook for US treasuries, viewing that technicals for benchmark rates are pretty mixed with short term studies hinting at oversold conditions while long term studies stay overbought.

Key Quotes

“Treasuries are modestly higher as markets await Yellen's testimony tomorrow.”

“Bunds and Gilts are weaker (though off the overnight lows) and peripheral EU debt spreads have tightened with Greek 10yr spreads ~60bp tighter this morning. Portuguese 10yr rates fell below 10y Treasury yields for the first time since 2007 this morning."

“Our overnight US rates flows saw bank portfolio buying in 3's, 7's and 10's and some scattered paying in 10yr rate. Overnight inter-dealer Treasury volume (4pm to 6am) was 98% of the 10-day average volume for the overnight session.”

“2s (0.638%)– Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum is still mixed and still oversold.”

“5s (1.60%)– Next major support comes in at 1.80% and just above. Nearby resistance lines up at ~1.49%. Daily momentum is mixed and still oversold.”

“10s (2.12%)–Next resistance comes in at ~1.96%, the Feb 12th lows that we recently rebounded off of. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is mixed but into oversold readings.”

“30s (2.725%)– Bonds don't have any solid support until 3.105%, the November "lows." Local resistance is ~2.54%. Daily momentum is mixed and still showing oversold readings.”







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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Technical outlook: Short-term treasuries oversold – RBS




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities, expects the CBRT to cut its benchmark repo rate by 50bp to 7.25% in tomorrow’s MPC meeting, expecting further cuts if inflation continues to fall.

Key Quotes

“At tomorrow’s (24 February) MPC meeting we expect the CBRT (Central Bank of Turkey) to cut its benchmark repo rate by 50 bp to 7.25%. The median consensus expectation is for a 25 bp cut, although 8 out of the 18 economists surveyed expect a cut of 50 bp or more.”

“We also expect the Overnight Borrowing and Lending rates to both be cut by 50 bp, bringing them down to 7.0% and 10.75% respectively.”

“We think that the CBRT will cut the benchmark repo rate by 50 bp, this representing a compromise between political pressure on the one hand, and being able to present the move to the markets as being ‘measured’ on the other.”

“We think a cut of 25-50 bp is pretty much priced into the FX market. Anything more than a 50 bp cut will cause USDTRY to rally, while if the CBRT remains on hold then we expect USDTRY to fall.”

“For the Xccy swap curve we expect a cut of more than 50 bp to lead to a steepening of the curve, with rates as a whole probably rising in response to the rally in USDTRY. If the CBRT remains on hold then we expect the curve to flatten with rates as a whole probably rallying in response to a weakening USDTRY.”

“Looking forward, as headline inflation continues to fall, we expect some further cuts after tomorrow’s 50 bp.”







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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Yellen to make it clear that Fed’s ‘patience’ is not limitless – BBH




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team comments on the upcoming testimony of Yellen, further expecting her to explain why Fed’s patience with emergency-level rates may be drawing to a close.

Key Quotes

“The leadership at the Federal Reserve had led many to expect a mid-year lift off. However, doubts have grown, and this has corresponded with a consolidative phase for the dollar.”

“After the FOMC minutes, the December Fed funds futures contract implied an average effective rate of less than 50 bp. Although the market corrected this view a little before the weekend, we expect Yellen make it clear the Fed's patience is not limitless."

“A hike, not today or tomorrow, but four months from now is still reasonable.”

“The Fed's leadership has been preparing the market gradually for a change in US monetary policy. The emergency settings that were so necessary in the darkest days are no longer needed. To be sure, the economy is not firing on all cylinders, but no one is really talking about a dramatic increase in interest rates.”

“Look for Yellen to be patient with US Congress as she explains why the Fed's patience with emergency-level rates may be drawing to a close, and that this is a constructive sign. It is also through this lens that Yellen will likely address questions about the dollar. The exchange value of the dollar is one of the factors taken into account in assessing the monetary conditions."

“The dollar's strength is a reflection of the relative performance of the US economy. Of course, part of the dollar's rise has been fueled by expectations of a Fed hike. Such anticipation will not be an important hurdle to the decision to hike rates later.”







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Feb 23,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Greece's proposed reforms - Reuters




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reuters have released the text of the letter outlining Greeces proposed reforms forwarded by the Minister of Finance of the Hellenic Republic to the Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem.

The Letter

I. Fiscal structural policies

Tax policies - Greece commits to:

Reform VAT policy, administration and enforcement. Robust efforts will be made to improve collection and fight evasion making full use of electronic means and other technological innovations. VAT policy will be rationalised in relation to rates that will be streamlined in a manner that maximises actual revenues without a negative impact on social justice, and with a view to limiting exemptions while eliminating unreasonable discounts.

Modify the taxation of collective investment and income tax expenditures which will be integrated in the income tax code.

Broaden definition of tax fraud and evasion while disbanding tax immunity.

Modernising the income tax code and eliminating from it tax code exemptions and replacing them, when necessary, with social justice enhancing measures.

Resolutely enforce and improve legislation on transfer pricing.

Work toward creating a new culture of tax compliance to ensure that all sections of society, and especially the well-off, contribute fairly to the financing of public policies. In this context, establish with the assistance of European and international partners, a wealth database that assists the tax authorities in gauging the veracity of previous income tax returns.

Public Finance Management - Greece will:







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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Credit Agricole: Yellen likely to deflect questions on Fed’s forward guidance – eFXnews




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team shares Credit Agricole’s view regarding the expectations from today’s Yellen’s testimony, with CA commenting that the Fed Chair is likely to deflect any questions relation to ‘patience’.

Key Quotes

“We believe that the assessment of economic activity will be relatively upbeat.”

“We look for Chair Yellen’s comments to suggest that the FOMC believes it will soon approach employment conditions that are consistent with its employment mandate.”

“In assessing the impact of global factors on the US economy, it will be interesting to see if she focuses on positive international developments, such as increased ECB accommodation and lower oil prices or negative developments such as softer global growth and a stronger dollar.”

“On the inflation front, Chair Yellen will likely note that price inflation has moved further away from the Fed’s 2% target, largely reflecting the declines in energy prices.”

“We expect her to underscore that inflation expectations remain relatively well anchored and hence the impact of lower energy prices is likely to be transitory but needs to be monitored carefully.”

“Ms. Yellen will likely note that the Fed focuses on the medium-term outlook for core inflation as a guide to policy.”

“Chair Yellen is expected to stress the data dependency of the monetary policy outlook, while indicating that most FOMC members look to begin normalizing rates this year.”

“The Chair will no doubt be asked about “patience” and forward guidance. We suspect that she will deflect the question, by saying that the FOMC will try to indicate as clearly as possible its current thinking conditioned on incoming data.”







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Feb 24,2015
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Yellen’s testimony to reflect a rate hike and the data dependence of Fed – Scotiabank




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, highlights the key focus for today’s Fed Yellen’s testimonty and further views that the broad takeaway from the speech would be that Fed will hike rates and it is data dependent.

Key Quotes

“Chair Yellen’s semi‐annual testimony is today’s highlight. It is likely to reflect the themes from the Fed minutes, with a focus on the following:

1) Data: the Fed is data dependent and will shift course with the data.

2) Conditions for a hike: include a) further improvement in labour, which we have subsequently seen with the strong nonfarm print; b) stable or rising levels of core PCE inflation.

3) Rate increase: many participants are concerned with premature rate increase; with the balance of risks between too early and too late seeming to favour erring on the side of too late. This discussion could prove the highlight of today’s testimony.

4) Inflation: the Fed noted that the downside risk to inflation forecast have increased due to softening on core.

5) Patience: there appear to be significant concerns around removing the word patience for fear of the message and potential response.

6) International developments: the Fed sees the risk to US growth as lower, but noted China, global disinflation, the Middle East, Ukraine and Greece as important themes.

7) The USD: the strength in the USD is a restraint on exports ‐ but we do not see the FOMC committee as particularly alarmed.”

“The market will watch closely for any indication of the timing of rate hikes; however we expect the broad takeaway to be that the Fed will hike rates and it is data dependent, over time this support a stronger USD.”







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Feb 24,2015
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