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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP remains weaker BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ notes GBP remaining weaker after the BoE QIR supported delayed rate hike expectations.

Key Quotes

The pound has remained on a weaker footing following the release yesterday of the more dovish than expected Quarterly Inflation Report from the BoE. The QIR supported market expectations that the BoE is unlikely to begin raising rates until late next year, which were described as appropriate.

The BoE lowered substantially their outlook for inflation in the near-term although remains comfortable that it will return to target by the very end of their forecast horizon.

Cable is likely to remain under downward pressure as the BoE is now more likely to follow rather than lead the Fed in raising rates from next year.

However the pound is still likely to strengthen further against the euro and yen as the BoE remains on track to raise rates well ahead of both the ECB and BoJ, and economic growth in the UK should continue to outperform compared to in the euro-zone.





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Nov 13, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD Consolidates – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, see the USD trading a little softer overall on the day in terms of the DXY’s performance, while most major currencies post small gains versus the big dollar.

Key Quotes

“The narrowing consolidation range in place in the DXY since the start of November should—sooner or later—give way to a more dynamic phase of market movement—most likely higher.“

“What the catalyst for the move will be remains to be seen; US yields are holding in a range and, on the day, Fed and ECB speak has the potential to attract the market attention, but perhaps not spark much appetite for fresh and aggressive positioning. Ditto for weekly claims and the JOLTS survey, even if these numbers support the impression of a better labour market.”

“Friday’s US retail sales and Monday’s (Sunday evening ET) Japanese GDP data may trigger a little more interest, especially the latter, given the ongoing speculation about PM Abe getting ready to postpone the VAT tax hike of Oct 2015.”

“From a positioning point of view, we want to buy into modest USD dips versus the majors. For instance, we would buy USDJPY on a move lower into the mid/upper 114s.”





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Nov 13, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD Consolidates – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, see the USD trading a little softer overall on the day in terms of the DXY’s performance, while most major currencies post small gains versus the big dollar.

Key Quotes

“The narrowing consolidation range in place in the DXY since the start of November should—sooner or later—give way to a more dynamic phase of market movement—most likely higher.“

“What the catalyst for the move will be remains to be seen; US yields are holding in a range and, on the day, Fed and ECB speak has the potential to attract the market attention, but perhaps not spark much appetite for fresh and aggressive positioning. Ditto for weekly claims and the JOLTS survey, even if these numbers support the impression of a better labour market.”

“Friday’s US retail sales and Monday’s (Sunday evening ET) Japanese GDP data may trigger a little more interest, especially the latter, given the ongoing speculation about PM Abe getting ready to postpone the VAT tax hike of Oct 2015.”

“From a positioning point of view, we want to buy into modest USD dips versus the majors. For instance, we would buy USDJPY on a move lower into the mid/upper 114s.”





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Nov 13, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD Consolidates – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, see the USD trading a little softer overall on the day in terms of the DXY’s performance, while most major currencies post small gains versus the big dollar.

Key Quotes

“The narrowing consolidation range in place in the DXY since the start of November should—sooner or later—give way to a more dynamic phase of market movement—most likely higher.“

“What the catalyst for the move will be remains to be seen; US yields are holding in a range and, on the day, Fed and ECB speak has the potential to attract the market attention, but perhaps not spark much appetite for fresh and aggressive positioning. Ditto for weekly claims and the JOLTS survey, even if these numbers support the impression of a better labour market.”

“Friday’s US retail sales and Monday’s (Sunday evening ET) Japanese GDP data may trigger a little more interest, especially the latter, given the ongoing speculation about PM Abe getting ready to postpone the VAT tax hike of Oct 2015.”

“From a positioning point of view, we want to buy into modest USD dips versus the majors. For instance, we would buy USDJPY on a move lower into the mid/upper 114s.”





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Nov 13, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD Consolidates – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, see the USD trading a little softer overall on the day in terms of the DXY’s performance, while most major currencies post small gains versus the big dollar.

Key Quotes

“The narrowing consolidation range in place in the DXY since the start of November should—sooner or later—give way to a more dynamic phase of market movement—most likely higher.“

“What the catalyst for the move will be remains to be seen; US yields are holding in a range and, on the day, Fed and ECB speak has the potential to attract the market attention, but perhaps not spark much appetite for fresh and aggressive positioning. Ditto for weekly claims and the JOLTS survey, even if these numbers support the impression of a better labour market.”

“Friday’s US retail sales and Monday’s (Sunday evening ET) Japanese GDP data may trigger a little more interest, especially the latter, given the ongoing speculation about PM Abe getting ready to postpone the VAT tax hike of Oct 2015.”

“From a positioning point of view, we want to buy into modest USD dips versus the majors. For instance, we would buy USDJPY on a move lower into the mid/upper 114s.”





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Nov 13, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Poland M3 Money Supply (YoY) down to 7.7% in October from previous 7.8%


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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Poland M3 Money Supply (YoY) down to 7.7% in October from previous 7.8%


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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EIA forecasts lower Natural Gas price


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its short-term energy outlook released this week, said the Natural gas will cost less this winter due to record high production.

The agency expects the spot price of natural gas to average USD 3.97/mmBtu this winter, down from last month's estimate of USD 4/mmBtu. Last winter, spot prices averaged US 4.53/mmBtu. The EIA also lowered its price forecast for 2015 from USD 3.84/mmBtu to USD 3.83/mmBtu.

Natural Gas for December delivery traded 0.75% higher at USD 4.007 at the time of writing. Moreover, the commodity has posted losses since the beginning of this week.

Natural Gas Technical Levels

Natural gas has an immediate support at 3.977, under which prices can fall to 3.955 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 4.064 and 4.10 levels.






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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) above expectations (1.1%) in September: Actual (2.1%)


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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Export Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -0.4% to -0.8% in October


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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY extends gains on US retail sales


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY extended gains and printed fresh 7-year highs at the beginning of the New York session, lifted by better-than-expected US retail sales data.

Retail sales rose 0.3% from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $444.49 billion in October, beating expectations of a 0.2% increase. Separated data showed US import prices fell 1.3% from September versus a 1.5% drop expected.

Dollar strengthened across the board and rallied to 116.81 against the yen, recording its highest level since October 2007.

At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 116.75, 0.86%, or 100 pips, above its opening price. On the upside, the 117.00 level stands as next resistance, while the 10-hour SMA at 116.33 offers immediate support.






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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD showing no signs of reversal – FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet highlights the important events to take place in the coming week while commenting on GBP sinking to fresh year lows.

Key Quotes

“Indeed, the UK was the economy that more attention gathered these last few days, with Wednesday’s key fundamental readings triggering a selloff in the local currency.”

“The BOE published its quarterly inflation report: with inflation at a 5-year low of 1.2%, the BOE also downgraded the outlook for inflation, seeing it below 1% in the next six months, also predicting it will slowly rise to normal over the next three years.”

“The GBP/USD pair sunk to fresh year lows in the mid’ 1.56, and shows no aims of turning back higher.”

“Early this Friday, German and EZ GDP and inflation readings came in line with current European situation: from weak to doom. The only positive note came from GDP readings, as German one shown a 0.1% growth in the third quarter, and French economy grew by 0.3%, slightly above expected. But EZ inflation failed to achieve the expected 0.4%, and held at its sad lows of 0.3%.”

“The calendar will be a bit more active next week, and hopefully major pairs will find a reason to set more directional moves.”






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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD in fresh lows sub-1.1350


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After being rejected from the 1.1390 area, USD/CAD has tumbled to the region of session lows around 1.1350/45 on Friday.

USD/CAD softer despite good US data

The recovery from previous lows in sub-1.1360 levels proved to be ephemeral despite US Retail Sales surpassed forecasts during October, growing 0.2% inter-month. Spot is back on the red territory and challenging session lows closer to 1.1350 ahead of the speech by Fed’s Bullard and the Consumer Sentiment gauge by the Reuters/Michigan index. In the opinion of Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, technical studies are mixed, “as spot has failed to reach a fresh high, upward momentum has been lost and studies have shifted to a less bullish stance; likely warning of a temporary period of range trading”.

USD/CAD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.26% en 1.1344 with the immediate support at 1.1300 (low Nov.13) followed by 1.1294 (Kijun Sen) and then 1.1281 (low Nov.12). On the upside, a break above 1.1402 (high Nov.11) would aim for 1.1450 (high Nov.7) and then 1.1466 (high Nov.5).






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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Dollar helps EUR/USD break to the downside - FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet sees better than anticipated US Retail Sales data boosting the dollar and breaking the EUR/USD pair to the downside.

Key Quotes

"Better that expected US Retail Sales up 0.3% in October after a flat growth in September, sent dollar higher against all of its rivals early US session, with the EUR/USD finally breaking to the downside the symmetrical triangle that contained price for all of this week, reaching 1.2398 before bouncing."

"Despite the break lower should signal the bearish trend is ready to resume, the fact is that the pair has been finding buyers around the 1.2400 earlier in the week also, so further declines are still required to confirm the move."

"Short term, the 1 hour chart presents a clear bearish momentum with price moving away from its moving averages, while the 4 hours chart maintains a neutral technical stance amid the weekly range."






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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Business Inventories came in at 0.3%, above forecasts (0.2%) in September



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Nov 14, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD erases gains, retreats toward 0.7900



FXStreet (Córdoba) - NZD/USD retreated further during the European session and recently bottomed at 0.7909, the same price it close on Friday. The pair closed a bullish gap and erased gains.

NZD/USD gains on data but reverses

During the Asian session boosted by retail sales data from New Zealand, that rose above expectation during the third quarter (+1.50% vs +0.85%), the kiwi climbed pushing NZD/USD to 0.7973, reaching the highest price since October 29.

According to analysts from TD Securities, the rise in core retail sales of 4.5% from a year ago in volume terms and 4.2% in dollar terms, plus the drop in NZ oil prices, and most recent credit card transaction data showing a strong start for the Dec qtr, we expect strong momentum in retail to follow.

The pair failed to hold to gains, started to retreated and accelerated during the last hours. From the highs it has fallen more than 50 pips and remains near the lows, trading around 0.7910.


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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

JPY winning the race to the bottom? - Rabobank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank sees the huge amount of monetary stimulus currently been pursued by the BoJ, opening the central bank to accusations that it is deliberately following a policy to weaken the JPY.

Key Quotes

“The huge amount of monetary stimulus that is currently been pursued by the BoJ has opened the central bank to accusations that it is deliberately following a policy to weaken the JPY. This policy finds support in the fact that the fiscal position of the Japanese government is in such poor shape.”

“Insofar as Japan needs to import most of it energy resources, there have been some concerns about the impact of a weaker JPY on fuel bills of Japanese businesses, though weaker oil prices have since lessened these worries.”

“In response to these concerns, BoJ Kuroda in early September remarked that virtuous cycles in Japan’s economy wouldn’t be derailed by a weaker yen – this is about as candid that BoJ are likely to be with respect to commenting on the exchange rate.”

“In view of market expectations that the next move in Fed interest rates would be a hike, the BoJ’s recent announcement of more QE was well timed to push USD/JPY higher."

"While the disappointing performance of world growth made hinder the improvement in Japan’s external balance, given the country’s poor fiscal position hand we expect the BoJ to retain its ultra dovish position and look for USD/JPY to continue edging towards the Y120 area.”


The pair failed to hold to gains, started to retreated and accelerated during the last hours. From the highs it has fallen more than 50 pips and remains near the lows, trading around 0.7910.


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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY pushes 117 briefly - BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH Global notes USD/JPY breaking the 117.00 level to later return back to 11.6 levels in European Morning.

Key Quotes

“The US dollar is mostly higher to start the week, with two exceptions. The first is the yen. The unexpected contraction in Q3 GDP triggered a stock market slide (Nikkei off 3%, giving back around 40% of this year’s gains) and spurred a dramatic short-covering squeeze in the yen after the greenback first pushed briefly through the JPY117.00 level.”

“The dollar found good bids near JPY115.50 from where it based and returned to the JPY116.30 area in the European morning. The New Zealand dollar is the other exception, helped by a strong retail sales report (1.5% in Q3 vs. consensus of 0.8%).“

“Dovish comments over the weekend by the BOE’s Carney and Haldine, who played up the disinflation risks, took a toll on sterling. It fell a cent from the Asian high near $1.5735 to return toward the 2014 low set before the weekend.”

“For its part, the euro traded as high as $1.2580 in Asia, on follow through buying after the construction pre-weekend price action. However, sellers re-emerged; encouraged by comments from ECB’s Mersch suggesting, at least theoretically, a wide range of assets the ECB could buy, including gold shares and ETFs.”


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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY may correct to 114.00 and 112.00 in the short-term – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst Omkar Godbole sees the BOJ rally slowing down in the short-term, and mentions the need for a rise in the treasury yields for a further push on the upside.

Key Quotes

“The USD/JPY pair rallied from 108.00 levels to 116.00 levels since Oct. 31 while the US Ten-year treasury yield remained largely in a range of 2.3% to 2.4%.”

“This is indicative of the fact that the rally in USD/JPY was almost entirely driven by the BOJ’s surprise stimulus. Hence it may have run its course, at least in the short-run.”

“A further upside move needs support from the rise in the treasury yields, which appears a difficult case in the short-term.”

“The pair is also overbought on daily as well as weekly charts.”

“To conclude - a correction up to 114 and 112 level cannot be ruled out in the short-term.”


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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD downside contained 0.8720


FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD surrendered intraday gains and dipped into negative territory for the day after being rejected by the 0.8795 area where it peaked during the Asian session.

AUD/USD was weighed by the risk averse mood and dropped more than 70 pips over the last hours to hit a low of 0.8720 before settling in a slim range. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.8730 zone, down 0.23% on the day.

It is a quiet day ahead data-wise, with the NY Empire State manufacturing index and US industrial production data on tap.

AUD/USD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 0.8795/0.8800 (Nov 17 high/psychological level), 0.8807 (50-day SMA) and 0.8850 (Oct 31 high). On the flip side, supports could be found at 0.8720 (Nov 17 low), 0.8700 (psychological level) and 0.8674 (10-day SMA).



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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY will see short-term volatility – TD Securities


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at TD Securities see the USD/JPY pair experiencing short-term volatility as BoJ meets this week.

Key Quotes

“USDJPY has been all over the shop, reaching an overnight high of 117.06 as Asian equities sold off upon the release of the data, then dropping to 115.46 as the Nikkei sold off, and eventually recovering to 116.30.“

“Prime Minister Abe is said to be evaluating the situation calmly before announcing the widely expected postponement of the sales tax hike and calling snap elections.”

“The BoJ meets this week, and although they are not expected to introduce any new measures after last month’s announcements, their characterization of the economic outlook for growth and inflation may well weigh on the JPY.”

“In all, USDJPY will see a fair bit of volatility in the short-term, the overall medium-term trend remains higher.”



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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP holds slightly below 0.8000


FXStreet (Córdoba) - >EUR/GBP climbed to 0.8001 reaching the highest price in a month during the Asian session but quickly pulled back. The pair is consolidating near 0.8000, after having last week the best performance in a more than a year.

The euro is testing an important psychological resistance level, around 0.8000; above here the next resistance lies at 0.8030 and above at 0.8045/55 (October highs). Currently trades at 0.7989, at the same price it closed yesterday.

To the downside immediate support might lie at 0.7980/75 (daily low) followed by 0.7955 and 0.7930/35 (November 14 low).



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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold gains in EUR terms


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices are modestly up in the 17-nation currency bloc after the German central bank warned that economic growth will remain weak in the coming months.

Gold in EUR terms or XAU/EUR traded 0.13% higher at EUR 950.38/Oz levels at the time of writing. The yellow metal had recovered on Friday in EUR terms, tracking gains in the EUR/USD pair and the losses in the US treasury yields. The prices remain well supported today since the Germany’s Bundesbank warned in its monthly report today that the outlook for growth in the region’s largest economy was likely to remain weak in the next few months.

However, broader gains in Gold were capped since the report also argues that the European Central Bank should not embark on a larger stimulus program.

Gold (EUR) Technical Levels

Gold has an immediate resistance located at 953.91, above which the prices may rise to 961.34 levels. Meanwhile, a break below 946.17, may push down the prices to 930.00 levels.


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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Speculators increase bullish bets in Crude, Long-to-Short ratio falls


FXStreet (Mumbai) - As per the data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, large speculators increased the net bullish bets on Crude oil futures for the week ended Nov. 11.

The non-commercial contracts of crude oil futures, traded by large speculators, traders and hedge funds, rose by 8,300 contracts to 276,832 contracts. non-commercial long positions in oil futures increased by a total of 6,470 contracts while the short positions fell by 1,830 contracts to total the overall weekly net change of 8,300 contracts. Moreover, non-commercial net position has now gained three out of the last four weeks, after having declined for six consecutive weeks.

Meanwhile, the ratio of long-to-short positions fell from 12:1 to less than 3:1. This ratio was almost 15:1 just three weeks earlier, the biggest since 2006. Moreover, the slump in prices witnessed in the last two weeks was partly driven by the race to dump losing long positions, which accelerated the price fall.

The WTI Crude for January delivery traded 0.97% lower at USD 75.09/barrel at the time of writing, while Brent for January delivery traded 1.205 lower at USD 78.46/barrel.


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Nov 17, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD attempts to climb above 1.2500


FXStreet (San Francisco) - The euro is attempting to recover some ground against the US Dollar following a weaker than expected NY Empire Manufacturing index in October. The EUR/USD rose 20 pips in the last few minutes from 1.2485 to trade above 1.2500.

The NY Empire Manufacturing Index bounced in October to 10.16 from 6.17 in September. However, the data was less than the 11.00 expected.

Earlier in the day, the EUR/USD extended its rejection of the 1.2575 area to trade at the 200-hour MA at 1.2485 where the pair found buying interest. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2501, down 0.21% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2575 and low at 1.2480.

The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing oversold conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.

EUR/USD levels

If the pair breaks above 1.2500, it will find next resistances at 1.2545 and 1.2575. To the downside, supports are at 1.2485, 1.2542 and 1.2400.


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Nov 17, 2014
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Edited November 17, 2014 by OctaFX_Farid