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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD remains capped by 0.8680




FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended its recovery from multi-year lows during the Asian session, but the advance was capped by the 0.8680 zone, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation.

AUD/USD was underpinned by profit taking Monday, with domestic data on housing finance doing little to change the direction of the Aussie. The pair reached its highest level since Thursday at 0.8682 but lacked follow-through and entered a sideways phase. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8670, up 0.43% on the day.

“The AUD/USD pares last week losses. In the absence of important US/Australian data, the focus remains on China”, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, analyst at Swissquote Bank SA. “We see resistance at 0.8747/90 area (21-dma / MACD pivot) and bet for a re-test of 0.85 support”.



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Nov 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Portugal Global Trade Balance dipped from previous €-2.61B to €-2.89B in September




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Nov 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Portugal Global Trade Balance dipped from previous -2.61B to -2.89B in September




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Nov 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold weakens ahead of the US opening




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices are trading weak after failing to capitalize on the gains witnessed during the Asian session as the US indices futures trade flat with equities at record highs.

Gold declined to USD 1165.50/Oz, down 0.37% for the day after having hit a high of USD 1777.40/Oz levels earlier todays. So far, the metal has been unable to extend the sharp bounce witnessed on Friday post the release of the weaker-than-expected US Non-farm payrolls data. Meanwhile, the S&P futures and the DJIA futures are trading 0.17% and 0.14% higher respectively. Gold is unable to sustain gains despite the US dollar index weakening 0.27% today.

The yellow metal also came under pressure after the official data in China showed price pressures remained flat in October. China’s consumer price index was 1.6% higher from a year earlier in October, unchanged from the previous month and in line with analysts’ expectations. Fall in inflation in the world’s second largest economy is likely to reduce the hedge demand for Gold.

Elsewhere, the yellow metal or XAU/EUR trades 1.17% lower at EUR 934.79/Oz levels. Moreover, the yellow metal is down in EUR terms as the single currency gained strength against the US Dollar post Friday’s jobs data.

Gold (EUR) Technical levels

Gold has an immediate support at 929.5, under which the prices can fall to 925.62. On the flip side, the metal may re-test 945, if the immediate resistance at 939.40 is breached.



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Nov 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold weakens ahead of the US opening




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices are trading weak after failing to capitalize on the gains witnessed during the Asian session as the US indices futures trade flat with equities at record highs.

Gold declined to USD 1165.50/Oz, down 0.37% for the day after having hit a high of USD 1777.40/Oz levels earlier todays. So far, the metal has been unable to extend the sharp bounce witnessed on Friday post the release of the weaker-than-expected US Non-farm payrolls data. Meanwhile, the S&P futures and the DJIA futures are trading 0.17% and 0.14% higher respectively. Gold is unable to sustain gains despite the US dollar index weakening 0.27% today.

The yellow metal also came under pressure after the official data in China showed price pressures remained flat in October. China’s consumer price index was 1.6% higher from a year earlier in October, unchanged from the previous month and in line with analysts’ expectations. Fall in inflation in the world’s second largest economy is likely to reduce the hedge demand for Gold.

Elsewhere, the yellow metal or XAU/EUR trades 1.17% lower at EUR 934.79/Oz levels. Moreover, the yellow metal is down in EUR terms as the single currency gained strength against the US Dollar post Friday’s jobs data.

Gold (EUR) Technical levels

Gold has an immediate support at 929.5, under which the prices can fall to 925.62. On the flip side, the metal may re-test 945, if the immediate resistance at 939.40 is breached.



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Nov 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/JPY climbs to 184.00




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The decline of the yen across the board pushed GBP/JPY to 184.00, reaching the highest price last Thursday, when it reached 184.30, the strongest level in six years.

The pair was trading below 182.00 during the Asian session but then jumped and climbed rising more than 200 pips in a few hours. The rally found resistance around 184.00 and currently trades at 183.75/80, up 0.96%, headed toward the highest daily close since 2008. The yen is so far the worst performer across the board.

GBP/JPY testing 2014 highs

Last week the pair reached 184.40 but reversed quickly and ended the week below around 181.50. On Monday the pair stabilized and today is soaring, approaching last week highs. A consolidation on top of 184.00, would expose the highs. The area around 184.40/55 is an important long term resistance, followed by 185.70/80.




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/JPY climbs to 184.00




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The decline of the yen across the board pushed GBP/JPY to 184.00, reaching the highest price last Thursday, when it reached 184.30, the strongest level in six years.

The pair was trading below 182.00 during the Asian session but then jumped and climbed rising more than 200 pips in a few hours. The rally found resistance around 184.00 and currently trades at 183.75/80, up 0.96%, headed toward the highest daily close since 2008. The yen is so far the worst performer across the board.

GBP/JPY testing 2014 highs

Last week the pair reached 184.40 but reversed quickly and ended the week below around 181.50. On Monday the pair stabilized and today is soaring, approaching last week highs. A consolidation on top of 184.00, would expose the highs. The area around 184.40/55 is an important long term resistance, followed by 185.70/80.




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Yen Weak, USD/JPY stronger - BBH




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman views the decline in the yen having a nearly immediate effect on the yen-value of the income earned from overseas investments, and sees USD/JPY heading towards 118.

Key Quotes

“The yen is off almost 1% against the US dollar and nearly as much against the euro. The greenback poked through the JPY116 level, after having dipped barely and briefly through JPY114 yesterday. For its part, the euro has bounced from JPY142 yesterday to nearly JPY144 today.“

“Once the US dollar can establish a foothold above JPY116.00, the next target is near JPY118.00. “

“The JPY113.50-114.00 area should now provide support.”

“Given the higher volatility, the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations above the 20-day average), which the dollar had been bumping against last week, is now near JPY117.30.”




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Uncertainties Weigh on JPY – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Forex Research Team at TD Securities view the USD/JPY path higher to be risky in lieu of the uncertainties revolving around the BoJ policy outlook.

Key Quotes

“Concerns that Japan’s fiscal reform efforts are stalling and that PM Abe may call a snap election if he decides not to push ahead with the second-leg of the proposed sales tax increase in 2015 have weighed on the JPY through the overnight session.”

“USDJPY traded through 116 briefly, the highest level seen since 2007.“

“These uncertainties are clear JPY negatives on the face of it but the broader outlook for USDJPY will hinge on the BoJ’s response to the government’s fumbling of the sales tax increase—inflation expectations and inflation may edge lower as a result of the delayed sales tax increase but, without more obvious efforts to rein back Japan’s sovereign debt burden, the BoJ may be reluctant to provide further monetary stimulus—as well as where US yields head from here.“

“We think the longer-term direction in USDJPY remains higher but, with US nominal yields reluctant to move up and the BoJ policy outlook perhaps a little more uncertain, USDJPY’s path higher is not without risks.“




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/JPY breaks above 100.00, 1-year high



FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY broke above 100.00 for the first time since May 2013 and printed a fresh high at 100.09. A weak yen in the currency market boosted the pair.

Ahead of Wall Street opening bell amid a US holiday, the pair is hovering around 100.00 rising for the fourth day in a row as USD/JPY continues near multi-year highs around 116.00 and as AUD/USD erases losses and rises back above 0.8600.

AUD/JPY and the best day of the month

The aussie is having the best day since the beginning of the month against the yen and has risen so far more than a hundred pips. AUD/JPY accelerated to the upside after rising above 99.30 and broke 99.70 (last week high) without making a pause.




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[OctaFX_Farid]

No OPEC output cut this month – Kuwait Oil Minister



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Kuwait Oil Minister Ali Al-Omair contradicted market expectation yesterday by stating that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will not cut its output in order to stabilize the falling Crude prices.

Speculations have been rife that the OPEC group, at its Nov. 27 meeting, may announce an output cut due to the rout in Crude prices. However, Saudi Arabia cut its price of Oil to the US, which did signal that the OPEC members do not intend to cut their output.

As per Bloomberg data, the OPEC, which has a production target of 30 million barrels a day, pumped 30.974 million barrels a day in October. “I don’t think there will be any cut in the production,” Al-Omair said at a conference in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. “We feel prices will settle down once surplus oil is absorbed.”

The Oil Minister also stated that Kuwait has no plans to cut its own crude production. As per Bloomberg data, Kuwait produced 2.85 million barrels a day in October.

WTI Crude is trading 0.08% lower at USD 77.36/barrel, while Brent Crude for December delivery is trading 0.38% lower at USD 82.64/barrel. Brent futures fell to a four-year low earlier today on the increased threat of a supply glut.

Brent Crude Technical Levels

Brent has an immediate support located at 82.20, under which the prices can fall to 81.85 (daily low). Meanwhile, Brent may rise to 83.38, if the immediate resistance at 82.80 is breached.




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Do not fight the SNB - MP



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse notes that upcoming SNB referendum could force the Swiss central bank to “rip apart its monetary policy rules.”

Key Quotes

“A handful of traders have been ignoring that rule and are quietly buying CHF, three weeks ahead of a SNB referendum that could force the Swiss central bank to “rip apart its monetary policy rules.”

“The EUR/CHF (€1.2025) currently sits atop of its 26-month low – the highly publicized lower limit that has been guarded by the SNB (€1.2000). This is the psychological “line in the sand” that Swiss central banker’s declared that under no circumstance would be breached, a policy that was introduced three-years ago to prevent the market from trading a ‘stronger’ CHF.”

“Under the new rules (if voted in), would require the SNB to buy gold to balance any EUR purchases. It’s no wonder that Swiss policy makers oppose this particular motion as it would “tie policy makers hands” when trying to conduct standard monetary policy.”

“There is added pressure on the SNB to defend, especially with the ECB expanding its balance sheet and looking at other assets it can purchase, within its mandate – the downward pressure should be expected to increase, and by default, even more pressure will indirectly be put on the SNB.”

“A “yes” vote will only invite more aggressive speculation – the SNB would be left with few teeth to weaken the CHF.”




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Natural Gas declines on Profit booking



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Natural gas prices declined extending the sharp losses witnessed on Monday on profit booking after prices rallied for ten consecutive sessions.

Natural Gas for December delivery is trading at USD 4.164/mmbtu, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 4.255. Moreover, prices saw gains of almost 23% in ten-straight sessions as investors rushed to buy contracts due to the looming onslaught of fiercely cold weather over much of the U.S. in the next two weeks.

However, many analysts believe that the rally was overdone and that the supplies would be enough to get through the peak demand season. Analysts are also projecting another strong rise in supplies this week.

Natural Gas Technical Levels

Natural Gas is trading near an immediate support located at 4.154, under which the prices can fall to 4.10. Meanwhile, a breach of the immediate resistance at 4.199 could lead to a re-test of 4.247.




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

The theme of Friday set to continue – selling dollars! - Investec



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Investec Research Team notes that with little to keep the markets occupied it would appear that Friday’s volatility is set to continue.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday’s main events were speeches made to the CBI by David Cameron and Ed Milliband who both for once seemingly agreed on something along with the business leaders in the audience, and that was leaving Europe would be bad for the UK’s prosperity and ‘would close us off from the rest of the world’.”

“However despite the uproar over the EU demand for an additional UK financial contribution to the EU, after UK GDP was revised up over recent years, it would seem with many UK politicians still favour EU membership.”

“Today sees a quiet day on the data front with the NFIB small business optimism survey the only release of note. With little to keep the markets occupied it would appear that the theme of Friday is set to continue – selling dollars!”




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY fails to hold above 116.00dollars! - Investec



FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY printed a fresh 7-year high at 116.09 during the European session but lost momentum and pulled back below 116.00 as the US dollar weakened in the market.

The pair failed to hold on top off 116.00 and ahead of Wall Street opening dropped to 115.54. Stock futures point to a positive opening in the US, while European markets are also rising.

USD/JPY levels to watch

The area around 115.50/55 is the immediate support level to consider, below here the next comes at 115.10 and 114.60 (daily low). To the upside, 116.00 continues to offer resistance.

Despite moving off daily highs, USD/JPY still holds more than 50 pips above yesterday’s closing price, headed toward the highest daily close since October 18, 2007.




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Nov 11, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Kuroda aimed for a surprise-driven decline in Yen - Nomura



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Koo, Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute notes that the additional easing measures unveiled by the BOJ on 31 October were made by an official well versed in currency intervention, and also used to dealing with investors and speculators.

Key Quotes

“Mr. Kuroda previously handled forex interventions when he was at the Ministry of Finance, and his methods appear to have carried over to the BOJ. The 31 October announcement emphasized the element of surprise.”

“According to the Nikkei, an inner circle of staff was tasked with preparing for the announcement in strict secrecy because Kuroda feared that any leaks would greatly reduce its impact. This attempt to maximize the surprise is precisely how currency interventions are conducted and is an important part of timing them for maximum impact.“

“When the forex market is dominated by hot money flows, the policy effect of intervention can be enhanced by surprising the investors and speculators responsible for those flows. Speculators in particular are taking risk with their own money, and an unexpected event can force them to close out positions, thereby changing the market’s direction.”

“In contrast, when exchange rates are determined largely on the basis of real demand from importers and exporters, the impact of any intervention is necessarily limited since their behavior is unlikely to change in response to surprise actions by the authorities.”



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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD Forecast: focus on wages FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet comments that the GBP/USD pair saw a short term downward spike to 1.5880 after UK employment figures, as the report shows both, unemployment rates and jobless claims missing expectations.

Key Quotes

The BOE is about to release its quarterly inflation report, which means things can turn as sudden as it did earlier, but at this point, seems Pound may continue rising against the greenback."

The 4 hours chart shows price advancing above a mild bullish 20 SMA that currently converges with the mentioned daily low, whilst indicators hold in positive territory, lacking strength at the time being. Price advances towards the week low posted late US session yesterday of 1.5944, so it will take an upward acceleration above 1.5950 to confirm further gains, eyeing first 1.5990 price zone, and later 1.6020/30.

The downside seems now more limited, as it will take a break below mentioned 1.5880 to see the pair turning intraday bearish towards recent lows in the 1.5820/30 price zone.



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Nov 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Carney: UK inflation outlook is materially lower



FXStreet (London) - "Main development is that inflation outlook is materially lower. It's more than likely I'll have to write to the chancellor" – Bank of England governor Mark Carney speaking on the release of the Quarterly Inflation Report.



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Nov 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP rebounds to 0.7850



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After challenging the 0.7800 key support, EUR/GBP has now reverted the decline and is posting fresh session highs in the 0.78500 neighbourhood.

EUR/GBP boosted by BoE

The renewed weakness around the pound is allowing the current rebound in the cross following the key BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report. The central bank remained apathetic regarding the first rate hike, although it stressed that inflation risks are broadly balanced and expectations anchored. The BoE also revised lower its GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 2.9% from 3.1%, mainly due to the euro zone fragile condition. On the critical wage growth subject, Carney argued its recovery will continue pari pasu with the improvement in the labour market.

EUR/GBP relevant levels

As of writing the cross is up 0.08% at 0.7844 with the immediate resistance at 0.7864 (high Nov.6) followed by 0.7875 (21-d MA) and finally 0.7885 (high Oct.31). On the downside, a breach of 0.7799 (low Nov.6) would open the door to 0.7791 (low Oct.2) and then 0.7767 (2014 low Sep.30).



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Nov 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

UK labour market data – Initial reaction – RBS



Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS notes the UK labour market data to be neutral, and sees it to be softer than expected.

Key Quotes

“Employment rose by 112k in the 3-months to September, a little below forecasts (consensus: 125k, RBS: 130k), though there was a very wide range of City forecasts (35k-245k). This is a fairly solid outturn (growth of 0.4% 3m/3m, 2.3% 3m y/y), though the detail of the employment data hint at some moderation, as previous out-sized gains from self-employment reverse (-88k in latest 3 months).”

“By and large, 'more of the same' UK labour market data. The employment data were marginally softer than expected, though still robust in an absolute sense, while wage inflation was fractionally above forecasts but still anaemic in any absolute sense (still running below CPI inflation).”

“Overall, a broadly neutral set of data. Perhaps the uptick in wage inflation will leave the 'hawks' feeling vindicated but, against this, the more telling developments may be moderating employment growth and average working time and some signs slowing growth in vacancies.”




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Nov 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

BOE’s QIR pushes GBP down - TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities notes that the dovish tone of the BOE’s inflation report were the prime catalyst to push GBP to set new lows for the day.

Key Quotes

“GBP initially received some support from the employment data, having traded down against USD prior to the release. Although the unemployment rate was a bit higher than expected, it was the upside surprise in earnings growth which really caught the market’s eye. However, the dovish tone to the BOE inflation report caused GBP to trade back down to set new lows for the day. GBP is now down –0.35% against USD on the day.”





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Nov 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD softer near 1.1310



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip vs. its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, dragging USD/CAD to the lower band of the range around 1.1315/10.

USD/CAD supported at 1.1300

Apathetic first half of the week for the pair so far, with no relevant releases in both Canada and the US. Spot continues to meander between 1.1300 and 1.1400 in response to the lack of relevant catalysts, while market participants wait for the weekly report on the US labour market and the BoC Review, both due tomorrow, and Retail Sales and the Reuters/Michigan index to be published on Friday.

USD/CAD levels to watch

The pair is now losing 0.05% en 1.1321 with the immediate support at 1.1300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.1294 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1264 (low Nov.3). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1359 (high Nov.12) would target 1.1402 (high Nov.11) en route to 1.1450 (high Nov.7).





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[OctaFX_Farid]

India Industrial Output increased to 2.5% in September from previous 0.4%0



Read more in Forex News [/b]





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Nov 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY Volatile on Abe Spec – TD Securities



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at TD Securities note that the JPY is likely to remain in focus for the markets following reports suggesting that PM Abe’s government is mulling a snap election in December, and see USD/JPY slipping below to 115.00/10 to find a firmer support at 114.00/10.

Key Quotes

“The swing factor in this respect may be next Monday’s Q3 GDP report (released late Sunday ET); a weak rebound in growth after the sharp Q2 decline (-7.1% q/q, ann.) will shift the balance of expectations against the government pushing on with the sales tax increase—and in favour of a snap election therefore.“

“Reports suggest that the government will be concerned if growth fails to reach at least 2.0% - which is right where the market consensus for the report currently stands.“

“USDJPY ran higher to retest 116 again in overnight trade as political rumours continued to swirl but faded as officials attempted to downplay the election/sales tax delay talk.“

“USDJPY may slip a little more below 115.00/10 but we expect the USD to find firmer support at or close to 114.00/10. We think the broader trend in USDJPY remains higher.”





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