OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Personal Income (Sep) rose 0.2%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Commerce Department informed that US Personal income rose at a monthly pace of 0.2% during September, missing estimates while Personal Spending dropped 0.2%. Further data showed US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 1.4% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. Core PCE, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.5% YoY and 0.1% MoM.

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Wall Street to open higher

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets are likely to open higher today after Bank of Japan announced a surprise expansion of its monetary stimulus earlier today, which triggered a “risk-on”rally in the stock markets across the globe.

The DJIA December futures are trading 1.12% higher at 17,304 levels, while the S&P 500 December futures are trading 1.26% at 2013.65 levels. Meanwhile, the Midcap Russell 2000 December futures are trading higher 1.88% at 1174.80 levels. Moreover, the “risk-on rally” is likely to push down the implied volatility levels in the market. Thus, S&P 500 VIX November futures are trading lower by 3.72% at 15.53 levels.

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD slumps to 1.5950

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is now suffering the USD strength, with GBP/USD testing multi-day lows in the mid-1.5900s, levels last seen in mid-October.

GBP/USD next support at 1.5900

The greenback is extending its upbeat momentum following the hawkish tone from the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, hurting the risk-associated assets and sending spot on a possible way to test ytd lows around 1.5900 the figure. “Below 1.5950 leaves the 1.5874 mid October low exposed. We continue to target the 1.5855 November 2013 low. Beyond this we look for losses to 1.5721 the 61.8% retracement of the move from 2013”, argued Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is losing 0.23% at 1.5964 with the immediate support at 1.5940 (low Oct.16) ahead of 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) would expose 1.6066 (21-d MA) and finally 1.6182 (high Oct.28).

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Natural Gas rises on weather reports

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Natural gas prices have inched higher despite a bearish weekly storage report released yesterday as the updated weather forecast models indicate the chilly weather in the days ahead.

Natural Gas for December delivery is trading 1.57% higher at USD 3.887/mmbtu. The prices gained strength after the updated weather forecast models predicted cold Canadian air to make its way south in the lower 48 states in the coming days. "I think people are a little leery of selling it down further when you've got your first real cold front coming in," said Kyle Cooper, managing partner of research consultancy IAF Advisors in Houston.

Moreover, the heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for US gas consumption.

Natural Gas Technical levels

Natural Gas has an immediate support at 3.874, under which the prices can fall to 3.83 levels. On the flip side, the prices can rise to 4.00, if the immediate resistance located at 3.955 is breached.

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

No change expected from BoE at its November MPC meeting - RBS

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist suggests that the upcoming BoE monetary policy meeting will be uneventful, with no changes expected and no statement to be released.

Key quotes

"It is not so long ago that November’s MPC meeting was being eyed as the most likely point for the first Bank Rate rise (a 25bp hike was fully priced as recently as mid-June, while the market was evenly split between November 2014 and February 2015 in mid-August)."

"Evidence of weaker global demand and more broad-based (if still mild) domestic disinflationary pressures mean that the prospects of any policy change or statement on November 6thare fairly remote."

"We expect the BoE Inflation Reporton 12thNovember to broadly validate current market pricing for the first Bank Rate hike to come around August 2015."

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US equity indices rise above closing highs

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity indices hit record high levels as an unexpected expansion of stimulus program from the Bank of Japan spurred a “risk-on” buying the financial markets across the globe.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.85% to 2011.60, topping its all-time high from Sept. 18. The DJIA advanced 0.84% to 17,340 levels. Surpassing a record high hit on Sept. 19. Moreover, the latest rally begun after Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said on Oct. 16 that policy makers should consider delaying the end of quantitative easing. The rally was extended further on better-than-expected earnings and optimism about the US economy.

The DJIA index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 27:3. Among the top gainers are shares of Intel, Visa, Merck&Co, Walt Disney. On the other hand, The shares of Chevron, IBM and McDonald’s are trading in the red.

DJIA Technical levels

The index is trading near an immediate resistance located at 17,350 levels, above which the prices may re-test 17,374 levels (daily high). On the flip side, support is seen at 17,223 and 17,145 levels.

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Oil price rally falls on Thursday on USD rise

FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood notes that yesterday's rise in the greenback on positive US GDP data and Fed members' comments pushed oil price further down.

Key quotes

"With the price of Brent being about the same as the beginning of the week traders have reported that the market has felt a little better this week but…"

"Early estimates of October Opec production are coming in and if they are to be believed it was another big month."

"I have so far had a number of 30.9m b/d which would be a 14 month high and up on September’s figure."

"With Saudi output down slightly it means that everyone else is doing what comes naturally to them, ie belting out as much as possible before the Opec meeting."

"And the European Union, with much to play for have secured a deal for Russian gas through Ukraine for the winter, sanctions aren’t that important really…"

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 86.9 in October

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index grew to 86.9 in October, from 84.6 recorded the previous month, according to data released by the Reuters/University of Michigan. Analysts expected an increase only to 86.4.

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Oct 31, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoJ QE increase and Fed QE end could impact USD/JPY - J.P. Morgan





FXStreet (Łódź) - The J.P. Morgan team of analysts see believe that the sharper divergence between the BoJ's and the Fed's monetary policies could have a considerable impact on USD/JPY.

Key quotes

"Possible change in relative balance sheet between the BoJ / the Fed and real yield differentials between Japan / US suggest a significant upside risk in USD/JPY."

"We now see USD/JPY to appreciate to 120 by September 2015. We recommend buying a 6-mo 114-120 USD/JPY call spread against selling a 6-mo 107 put, RKI 104. This costs 12bp."

"Today, the BoJ unexpectedly decided to expend QQE by a 5-4 vote."

"Todays decision indicated BoJ's seriousness to push up Japan's inflation to 2%. Indeed, in their semi-annual Outlook Report, BoJ did not change their forecast of core CPI for FY 2016 at 2.1% (excluding the impact of consumption tax hike)."

"BoJ decided to hold more risky assets in their asset side and put liability side (the yen note) at risks. BoJ seems to be very serious to devalue the currency they issue."

"If the BoJ, who issue the yen note, are so serious to devalue of the yen, probably it will happen. The next question may be if they can stop the devaluation once Japanese people start worrying about holding the yen note."

"Indeed, the giant fund who manages pension money of Japanese people already shows the way. The GPIF also announced new target for their portfolio today."

"Under the new portfolio, GPIF will have to sell large amount of JGB, which will be absorbed by the BoJ, and buy more stocks and foreign assets. Actually, new allocation was also surprising to us because they will increase more foreign assets compare to we thought."


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Oct 31, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bitcoin erases gains





FXStreet (Mumbai) - Bitcoin prices erased early morning gains after the virtual currency struggled near a technical resistance level.

The BTC/USD is trading 0.62% higher at 327, after giving faced rejected at the days high of USD 335.47 levels. The virtual currency continues to see a chart based trading as the market lack fresh fundamental trigger. Meanwhile, CoinDeskss Bitcoin Price index is trading 1.39% higher at 328.25. Elsewhere, the BTC/EUR has gained 0.565 to trade at 261.93 levels.

Bitcoin Technical Levels

Bitcoin has failed to sustain above the immediate resistance located at 331.08, opening doors for a 315 levels on the downside. On the other hand, prices may rise to 339 levels if the immediate resistance of 331.08 is breached.


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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

SEB: EUR/USD fell down to a fresh trend low - eFXnews





FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that the SEB observes EUR/USD's decline to a fresh trend low on Monday.

Key quotes

"Following the recheck and validation of the neckline break the market continued its descent down to a fresh trend low hence fulfilling an absolute minimum target for the move, a new low."

"Looking forward more likely targets for the current wave 5 should be sought at 1.2398, 1.2326 or 1.2220."

"To maintain a healthy downside momentum it is rather important that a rebound ends below 1.2614."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'


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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

All eyes on ECB monetary policy meeting - BNZ





FXStreet (Łódź) - Spiros Papadopoulos, economist at BNZ, suggests that th eECB shouldn't make any unexpected moves at its monetary policy meeting this Thursday.

Key quotes

"With interest rates at the zero bound, there is nothing that practically can now be done on rates unless the corridor between the deposit and refinance rates is widened. We do not look for this to happen."

"The ECB is hoping that the results of the banking stress tests and AQR will see Eurozone banks acquire enough capital to be able to lend freely to corporates, which then leaves the ABS scheme as a cheap form of funding for further lending."

"However, this will only become clear in December when the second TLTRO auction is held. Until then, the ECB will be crossing its fingers and hoping."

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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

SEB:Caution if USD/JPY closing below 112.14 - eFXnews




FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that the SEB sees a risk of a correction in USD/JPY.

Key quotes

"Friday’s buying spree brought the pair up above the estimated ceiling line at 112.08."

"The move is however starting to look stretched so there’s clearly an increasing correction risk lurking."

"Ending today back into the channel will increase such a risk and will probably trigger a few stops."

"Should a setback occur the mid body point, 110.75, of Friday’s rising benchmark candle, will be a first hand target."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY hits fresh 6-month high




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY advanced to fresh 6-month highs as the yen continues to underperform across the board as investors continue to assess Friday's BoJ easing move.

After briefly dropping below 141.00 to a low of 140.39 during the Asian session, EUR/JPY resumed the upside and climbed toward its highest level since early May at 141.97 so far. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at 141.85, recording a 0.82% gain Monday, after gaining 2.16% Friday following the announcement of BoJ easing measures.

EUR/JPY levels to watch

On the upside, EUR/JPY could find next resistances at 142.00 (psychological level) and 142.35 (May 8 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 140.39 (daily low) and 140.00 (psychological level).





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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Chinese demand rises amid falling Gold prices




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Gold prices have lost almost USD 50 since the Federal Reserve ended its QE program while sounding upbeat about the US economy. Despite this, Chinese demand as reported by Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) appears to have increased sharply.

The latest weekly withdrawals figure from the SGE hit 59.7 tonnes, which takes the aggregate total total Chinese gold demand this year to 1 600 tonnes. Moreover, the total demand for 2014 may exceed 2000 tonnes if the size of the weekly withdrawals remains constant in the days ahead. Last year, Chinese demand was huge even though Gold prices were pummeled.

The yellow metal is trading largely unchanged today at USD 1171.30/Oz. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index is capping gains in the yellow metal. Meanwhile, Gold may post gains if the US manufacturing data due for release at 15:00 GMT disappoints market expectations.

Gold Technical Levels

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1183.50, while the immediate support is located at 1160.50 levels.






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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD looking to recover 1.1300




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming out in sub-1.1270 levels, USD/CAD is now recovering the ground lost and aiming for the 1.1300 handle.

USD/CAD eyes on US docket

Spot is advancing for the second consecutive session so far, targeting the interim resistance at Friday’s peaks around 1.1330 against a backdrop of a persistent USD strength. Next of relevance for the pair will be the reports of both Canadian and US manufacturing sectors, with the releases of the RBC PMI and the ISM and PMI gauged by Markit, respectively. According to the last CFTC report, strategists at Rabobank noted, “CAD positions were mostly consolidative, though soft oil prices have pushed CAD shorts to their highest level since June”.

USD/CAD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.14% at 1.1282 and a surpass of 1.1332 (high Oct.31) would open the door to 1.1360 (high oct.16) and then 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15). On the other side, the immediate support lines up at 1.1264 (low Nov.3) ahead of 1.1227 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1183 (low Oct.31).





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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Crude long positions at 17-month low




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude oil traders trimmed their long positions in line with the falling prices ahead of the more hawkish Fed commentary.

The data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows long positions fell to their lowest level in 17 months. Hedge funds reduced net-long positions in WTI Crude by 2.3% for the week ended Oct 28. Net-longs for WTI declined by 4,288 to 182,486 futures and options combined during the week ended Oct. 28. Long positions dropped to 249,841, lowest since May 2013, while short positions slipped 2.5% to 67,355.

Moreover, their decision to trim the long positions proved to be correct as the Crude prices tumbled 18% in October. The WTI Crude for December delivery is trading 0.47% higher at USD 80.92/barrel.

WTI Crude Technical levels

Crude has an immediate resistance at 81.26, above which the prices can rise to 81.73 levels. On the flip side, prices may test 80.00 levels if the immediate support at 80.73 is breached.



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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD capped by 1.6020




FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD rose through the 1.60 mark and printed fresh daily highs, filling the weekly opening gap in the process, following stronger than expected UK manufacturing PMI.

GBP/USD managed to bounce off a daily low of 1.5925 and rose nearly 100 pips throughout the day toward a high of 1.6020 before finding resistance and settling in a slim range over the last hours. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.5998, virtually unchanged on the day.

GBP/USD technical outlook

“The short-term momentum is negative as long as prices remain below the hourly resistance at 1.6038 (30/10/2014 high). Another hourly resistance stands at 1.6088 (28/10/2014 low)”, said Peter A Rosenstreich, analyst at Swissquote Bank SA.

“In the longer term, given the significant deterioration of the technical structure since July, the strong resistance area between 1.6525 (19/09/2014 high) and 1.6644 (01/09/2014 high) is expected to cap any upside in the coming months. Monitor the current consolidation phase near the strong support at 1.5855 (12/11/2013 low)”, the analyst added.




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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Equities to open on a flat note




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets are likely to open on a flat note today ahead of the monthly manufacturing data.

The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.17% at 17,280 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.10% down at 0.10%. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.06% lower at 1170.30.

The equity futures remained flat throughout the Asian and the European session after the weak Chinese manufacturing data renewed the concerns of a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.




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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bullish outlook for USD/CAD - TD Securities



FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts observe that the headwinds for the CAD such as weaker commodities, continue this week so the bull trend for USD/CAD should remain in place for now.

Key quotes

"The week ahead will be hallmarked by two dual releases in the form of US and Canadian trade figures tomorrow and both countries’ employment reports on Friday."

"In a nutshell, we are expecting Canadian trade to surprise on the upside and we have an on-consensus view on Canadian employment, whereas we are slightly below consensus on US trade but above consensus on US employment."

"The first hurdle for the CAD will be trade—and we think risks here are somewhat asymmetric; ok-to-good data do little positive for the CAD but another disappointing outcome will hurt the CAD more. If both our employment forecasts come to fruition (-10K in Canada vs +239K in the US), funds will surely have another big up day Friday."

"Governor Poloz speaks this afternoon at an event organized by the Canadian Council for Public Private Partnerships. We do not expect his speech to break new ground on the BoC latest thinking but the press conference scheduled at 14.00ET bears watching, as it will provide journalists the opportunities to ask the questions they could not ask upon the release of the MPR on October 22nd."

"We remain conviction bulls on USDCAD; the headwinds we noted for the CAD last week—softer commodities and wider (more USD-supportive– remain evident at the start of the week and the charts are shaping up quite bullishly; the 40-day MA hold last week suggests the broader bull trend is intact, the consolidation (bull flag) break out points to more immediate gains and new highs, the higher weekly high negates a mildly negative weekly candle in the week before last."

"We think modest dips are a buy and we would be reluctant to fade gains from here—USDCAD is shaping up for a move (recall weekly technicals point to 1.18+)."



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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI rose from previous 53.5 to 55.3 in October


Read more in Forex News



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Nov 03, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012).




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Nov 04, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185”.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012).




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Nov 04, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD wobbling around 1.6000


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains in a sideline pattern on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area around the psychological limestone at 1.6000.

GBP/USD looks to the US for direction

Absent relevant data or events in the UK economy, spot will focus on the US data releases later on today for better clues regarding direction, at least until the BoE MPC meeting due on Thursday. In the meantime, the pair seems comfortable hovering over the 1.6000 neighbourhood today, unable to break the consolidative mood either way. According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, “Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.6062 (20 day ma) ahead of key resistance at 1.6185. Short term onus remains on the downside, while we trade below 1.6185”.

GBP/USD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.16% at 1.6000 with the immediate hurdle at 1.6027 (high Nov.3) ahead of 1.6038 (high Oct.30) and then 1.6055 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.5928 (low Nov.3) followed by 1.5875 (2014 low Oct.15) and finally 1.5854 (low Nov.12 2012).




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Nov 04, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US index futures hint at a weak opening on Wall Street




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The equity futures in the US declined as investors await evidence, in the form of macro data, that the economy can sustain a withdrawal in stimulus.

The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.19% at 17,253 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.25% down at 2006.15. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.35% lower at 1162.00.

Earnings reports may provide further clues to the health of the U.S. economy. Prudential Financial Inc., 21st Century Fox Inc., and Walt Disney Co. are among the S&P 500 companies posting financial results this week.




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Nov 04, 2014
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