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GBP/USD climbs beyond 1.6100

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Better sentiment now surrounding the sterling is pushing GBP/USD back above the 1.6100 mark on Monday.

GBP/USD extends the rebound from 1.6000

The pair is now advancing for the second consecutive session and is looking to extend the recent bounce off recent lows around the psychological handle at 1.6000. Data wise in the UK, the week lacks of appeal, however Consumer Credit, M4 Money Supply and home prices tracked by Nationwide will keep investors entertained. “Net leveraged GBP longs on the CFTC front were reduced significantly for the third consecutive week, mirroring the waning of overly hawkish BOE expectations. In the short term, the pair may attempt to continue base building within 1.6000-1.6200 multi-session”, noted Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is up 0.17% at 1.6116 facing the next up barrier at 1.6130 (high Oct.22) ahead of 1.6146 (Kijun line) and then 1.6164 (30-d MA). On the flip side, a break below 1.6031 (Tenkan Line) would open the door to 1.6018 (low Oct.24) and finally 1.5995 (low Oct.23).

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Corn trades weak after three consecutive weekly gains

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Corn prices declined today after the prices ended higher on Friday, scoring gains for the third consecutive week.

Corn for December delivery is trading 1.02% lower at USD 3.4863/bushel. Prices rallied for the last three weeks, mainly on hopes that the wet weather would delay the harvest of crops. Prices hit a high of USD 3.6475 on Friday before closing at USD 3.5238. Moreover, the latest weather forecast models show warm temperatures and a less probability of rains. A lack of notable rains across the central and western Midwest and Delta until Nov. 2 will favor corn and soybean harvesting, MDA Weather Services said in a report dated Oct. 24.

Moreover, with a warmer weather forecast for this week, the harvests are likely to resume leading to a weakness in the Corn prices.

Corn Technical levels

Corn has an immediate support of 3.48 (Aug 12th low), below which prices can fall to 3.4213 (Oct 20th low). On the flip side, prices may rise to 3.6 levels if the day’s high of 3.5238 is breached.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold trades flat

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices are trading flat in the European session despite the fresh signs of weakness in the European equities.

Gold is trading 0.10% lower at USD 1230.60/Oz, up from the day’s low of USD 1227.50/Oz hit earlier today. The metal has been unable to gain strength so far, despite the fall in the European equity markets after a positive start. The Dax is trading 0.59% lower while the Ftse has lost 0.43% today. Both markets are down more than 1% from the day’s high. The yellow metal has failed to respond even to the disappointing German IFO survey data released during the European session today.

Moreover, the prices are under pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will end its monthly bond buying program this week. However, sustained losses in the equity markets coupled with the weakness in the US Dollar index may push gold prices higher.

Gold Technical levels

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1235, above which prices can test 1238 and 1240 levels. On the other hand, failure to sustain gains above the immediate support of 1227 can send the prices down to 1223 levels today.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF erases intraday losses

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF managed to reverse intraday losses during the European session and regained the 0.95 mark, moving inversely with EUR/USD.

USD/CHF bottomed out at 0.9488 but has been steadily recovery ground over the last hours to trade nearly flat at the 0.9515 zone. On the data front, traders might get some direction from US Markit services PMI and pending home sales.

USD/CHF levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, USD/CHF could find next resistances at 0.9545 (Oct 24 high), 0.9561 (Oct 15 high) and 0.9591 (Oct 10 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.9485 (10-day SMA), 0.9471 (Oct 22 low) and 0.9400/0.9398 (psychological level/Oct 21 low).

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD ready for 1.2700?

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is gathering pace on Monday, lifting EUR/USD to another test of the 1.2685/90 band.

EUR/USD focus on US docket

Traders seem to have shrugged off the disappointment after the IFO figures for the month of October, pushing spot back to the upper-1.2600s after dropping to sub-1.2670 levels. Ahead in the session, Pending Home Sales (0.5% MoM exp.) and Services PMI (58.0 exp.) gauged by Markit will be in the limelight across the Atlantic. Senior Analyst Jens Pedersen at Danske Bank, argued, “We expect the recent high at 1.2885 to be protected and clients should use a bounce in EUR/USD ahead of that level as an opportunity to establish fresh shorts. In the medium to long term, the stress-test results support our call for a recovery in the euro zone in 2015 and hence for a rebound in EUR/USD”.

EUR/USD relevant levels

The pair is now up 0.16% at 1.2691 with the next resistance at 1.2723 (10-d MA) followed by 1.2730 (200-h MA) and finally 1.2740 (high Oct.22). On the downside, a break below 1.2635 (low Oct.24) would expose 1.2614 (low Oct.23) and then 1.2605 (low Oct.10)

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Speculators reduce bearish bets on Oil, WTI falls below USD 80.00

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct 21 showed that speculators reduced the bearish bets on Crude Oil.

As per the CTFC data, net-long positions in West Texas Intermediate futures rose 5.7% during the week ended Oct 21. This is the same time period when the prices stabilized around USD 80-81/barrel. Short bets fell 20 %, the most in three months, while longs fell 2.8 %.

Overall, Crude Oil did rise during the reporting period, although the prices are back near multi-month lows on concerns of excess global supply. Moreover, the fall in the bearish bets on Crude is a reflection of bargain hunting demand at lower levels.

WTI Crude for December delivery is trading 1.35% lower at USD 79.92/barrel, inching towards the low of USD 79.10 hit earlier this month.

WTI Crude Technical levels

WTI Crude has an immediate support of 79.10 (Oct 16th high), below which prices can fall further to 77.28 levels. Meanwhile, the commodity can rise to 81.25 levels, if the hourly chart resistance at 80.50 is taken out.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Wall Street may open on a weak note

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The activity in the US Equity futures is indicating that the equity markets in the US are likely to open on a weak note today.

The DJIA December futures are trading 0.40% lower at 16,668.50, while the S&P 500 December futures are down 0.50% at 1949.95. The Midcap Russell 2000 December futures have lost 0.65% to trade at 1108.20. The weakness in the US Equity futures is in line with the European equity indices, which weakened after a positive start. The Dax and the Cac are now trading lower by 1.44% each. Meanwhile, the Ftse is down 1.03%.

Moreover, the earnings shall remain under focus ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision due later in the week. Thirteen companies listed on the S&P 500 Index including Allergan Inc. and Seagate Technology report quarterly results today.

Elsewhere, in Frankfurt, the European central Bank (ECB) will remain the exact amount spent on covered bonds last week. The ECB has bought assets from Germany to Portugal since the beginning of program on Oct 20. A disappointing figure may result in a further slump in the European and the US equity markets.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

A well offered USD/JPY sets support at 107.70, then sideways

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After falling 65 pips from intra-day high of 108.35, USD/JPY broke below the 108.00 area before finding support at 107.70. The pair is trading under pressure amid news that the BoJ may look to moderate inflation outlook.

According to Ryan Littlestone from ForexLive, the BoJ may moderate inflation after fall in oil as the bank is "changing view of CPI to accelerate in H2 FY 2015."

At 107.70, the pair bounced back to 107.95 but the movement wasn't strong enough and it is now trading sideways around 108.85. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.85, down 0.28% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.37 and low at 107.72.

The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/JPY sentiment

"Technically," Valeria Bednarik from FXstreet comments, "the 1 hour chart shows indicators heading south below their midlines, while 100 SMA maintains a strong bullish slope in the 107.50/60 area, acting as immediate support."

If the USD/JPY recovers its mojo, it will find resistances at 107.95, 108.10 and 108.35. On the downside, supports are at 107.80, 107.70 and 107.60.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Treasury yields slide on weak US data

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short end and the long end of the treasury market curve declined after the disappointing US services PMI data and the Pending home sales data hit the wires.

The ten-year yield now trades at 2.243%, down from the day’s high of 2.298%, while the two-year note yield trades at 0.378%, down from the day’s high of 0.402%. Moreover, the bond prices gained, pushing yields lower after the reports came-in that the US Pending home sales increased 1% year-over-year in September, much lower than the market forecast of a 2.2% increase. Meanwhile, the preliminary services PMI reading for October came-in at 57.3, compared to the market expectation of 57.8.

Moreover, the stronger pickup in the wages was expected to push up housing purchases. The treasury yields are likely to remain well supported as markets brace up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet on Wednesday, wherein the central bank is widely expected to end its monthly bond buying program.

Ten-year yield Technical levels

The yield has an immediate resistance at 2.3%, while the support is located at 2.229% (Oct 24th low).

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY extends fall amid weak data and lower US yields

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar is trading under pressure amid weaker than expected housing and PMI services data in the United States as well as lower US yields. The USD/JPY is extending declines to 107.60 area after breaking previous lows of 107.70.

Services PMI declined to 57.3 in October; more than 58.0 expected and lowest since April. The pending home sales index rose 'only' 0.3% in September, below 0.5% increase expected.

US 10-year yield is now trading at 2.243% after declining from 2.298% daily high amid weak US data. As Omkar Godbole from FXStreet points out, "the yield has an immediate resistance at 2.3%, while the support is located at 2.229% (Oct 24th low)."

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.70, down -0.42% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.37 and low at 107.65. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.

USD/JPY sentiment

The USD/JPY is trading down amid US data and affected by US yields; however, "the ECB announce their ABS spending spree thus far at the bottom of the hour," points out Ryan Littlestone from ForexLive. There shouldn’t be too much market reaction as there’s not much to gauge how they should be doing. That won’t stop some from having a guess at what they think the ECB should be doing so bear it in mind."

Short term supports are at 107.60, 107.45 and 107.35. To the upside, resistances are at 07.90, 108.00 and 108.35.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD jumps to 6-day highs

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD spiked to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session in a bout of dollar selling following disappointing US economic data.

GBP/USD rallied nearly 40 pips in a matter of minutes and printed a 6-day high of 1.6146 before easing slightly. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.6135, recording a 0.31% gain on the day.

US data showed US pending home sales grew 0.3% in September versus a 0.5% gain expected, while Dallas Fed manufacturing business index fell short of expectations at 10.3 in October.

GBP/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.6183 (Oct 21 high) and 1.6200 (psychological level) and 1.6225 (Oct 9 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.6079 (intraday low), 1.6066 (10-day SMA) and 1.6015 (Oct 24 low).

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold edges lower while the DJIA recovers

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold has edged slightly lower tracking the recovery in the US and the European equity markets.

Gold is trading at USD 1228.40/Oz, down from the USD 1230/Oz levels seen at the beginning of the US session. The DJIA has recovered from the initial weakness to trade largely unchanged for the day. Meanwhile, the Dax has recovered from the losses of more than 1.5% to trade 0.80% lower. On similar lines, the Ftse has recovered to trade 0.30% lower.

Moreover, the stock prices across the Europe and the US recovered after reports came-in that the European Central Bank (ECB) settled 1.704 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of covered-bond purchases last week.

Gold Technical levels

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1232, above which prices can rise to 1235 levels. On the flip side, failure to sustain above the immediate support of 1227 shall push the prices down to 1223 levels.

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Oct 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Crude oil remains weak ahead of supply data

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude prices on both sides of the Atlantic are trading near the three-day lows amid speculation that the stockpiles in the US rose to the highest level since July.

WTI Crude is trading 0.13% lower at USD 80.90/barrel while the Brent Crude is trading 0.23% lower at USD 85.63/barrel. The prices resumed their fall yesterday after a major investment bank reduced its WTI and Brent Crude price forecast by USD 15. As per Goldman Sachs, “The scale and sustainability of U.S. shale oil production is making global oil cheaper.”

According to a Bloomberg news survey, Crude inventories are expected to have increased by 3.8 million barrels to 381.5 million last week.

Brent Crude Technical levels

Brent Crude has an immediate resistance of 86.00, above which prices can rally to 86.59 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support level of 85.16, shall open doors for a re-test of 84.56 levels.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP holding to latest gains against USD - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that GBP/USD has been hovering slightly above the 1.6100 level on Tuesday.

Key quotes

"Price stands close to a daily descendant trend line coming from July high of 1.7190 today converging with Monday high in the 1.6145 price zone."

"The lack of directional strength has left 4 hours indicators flat albeit in positive territory, while 20 SMA presents a mild bullish tone below current price, offering dynamic intraday support at 1.6075."

"Neutral to bullish, the upside is favored on a break above mentioned 1.6145 towards the 1.6200 price zone, whilst below 1.6070, the pair’s bearish run may extend down to 1.6030 price zone."

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold declines ahead of the US Durbale Goods Orders data

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have edged marginally lower ahead of the US durable goods data, tracking the rise in the US Equity futures.

Gold is trading 0.19% lower at USD 1227/Oz, after having hit a high of USD 1231.70/Oz during the European session. Moreover, the US Equities are trading higher ahead of the release of the Durable goods orders number for September due at 12:30 GMT. The DJIA December futures are trading 0.47% higher, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.53% higher at the time of writing. Consequently, the ten-year treasury yields have inched higher to 2.287%.

The yellow metal may extend losses if the durable goods orders rise more than the market expectation of 0.5% growth.

Gold Technical levels

Gold has an immediate resistance of the day’s high of 1231.30, above which prices can rise to 1235 levels. Meanwhile, prices may slip to 1225 levels since the metal has failed to sustain gains above 1230 levels.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CHF regains 1.2060

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/CHF is posting fresh session highs now, hovering over 1.2060/65 after dropping to the mid-1.2000s in early trade.

EUR/CHF bounces off 1.2050

The cross keeps the trade in a very tight range, currently coming up after a brief dip below 1.2050 on Monday. Data wise in the Alpine economy, the only releases of note this week will be the Consumption Indicator gauged by UBS and the KOF Leading Indicator, both due on Friday. In the meantime, market participants slowly commenced to turn their attention to the referendum regarding the SNB gold holdings on 30th November. “Initial resistance is found circa 1.2083, the 55 day ma. This guards the 1.2133 July low and the 200 day ma at 1.2159”, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

EUR/CHF key levels

The cross is now up 0.02% at 1.2062 and a breakout of 1.2080 (30-d MA) would expose 1.2086 (38.2% of 1.2140-1.2053) and finally 1.2096 (high Oct.14). On the other hand,

The initial support lines up at 1.2053 (low Oct.2) ahead of 1.2045 (low Sep.4) and then 1.2030 (low Nov.28 2012).

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gains in WTI Crude capped by weak US data

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The gains in the Crude oil prices have been halted by a weaker than expected US Durable goods orders data. The prices had rallied from the three-day lows in anticipation of a strong data.

WTI Crude for December delivery is trading 0.47% higher at USD 81.37/barrel. However, the prices slipped from a high of USD 81.65 levels hit just ahead of the release of the US data. The Durable goods orders in the US contracted 1.2% in September, missing market expectations of a 0.5% increase.

Earlier today, the prices were pushed lower on forecasts that U.S. crude inventories increased last week. Moreover, the major investment banks have reduced their price forecasts for Crude oil on the both sides of the Atlantic. The latest one to do so is the Barclays, which reduced its estimate for the average Brent price in 2015 to $93 a barrel from $96, and for WTI prices to $85 from $89.

Crude prices may dip once again if the US consumer confidence data for October fails to meet the market expectation of 87.00.

WTI Crude Technical levels

WTI crude has an immediate support at 81.06 on the hourly chart, below which the prices can fall to 80.47 levels. On the flip side, prices can test 82.31 levels if the day’s high of 81.65 is breached.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: Durable Good Orders (Sep) dropped 1.3%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that orders for US long-lasting goods have contracted 1.3% MoM during September, missing expectations at 0.5% although better from August’s 18.3% drop (revised). Excluding the Transportation sector, orders fell 0.2% vs. forecasts for a 0.5% advance.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Faster, higher, stronger; GBP/USD extends advance amid dollar weakness

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is joining the US Dollar's weakness environment after the US durable goods orders report and its price versus the Greenback is now testing October 21 high at 1.6180.

Durable goods orders extended last month 18.3% decline after posting a 1.3% fall in September; against 0.5% rise expected. Ex-transport item, durable goods declined 0.2%.

The GBP/USD jumped 70 pips from 1.6110 to break yesterday's high at 1.6145 and after triggering stops around 1.6160, the pair rallied to test October 21 highs around 1.6180. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6179, up 0.37% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6184 and low at 1.6088.

The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

GBP/USD sentiment

Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet points out that in the short term "the hourly chart shows price extending above its 20 SMA and RSI heading strongly up above its midline, while the 4 hours chart also presents a bullish bias, with 200 EMA at 1.6190 acting as immediate resistance and the level to break to confirm more intraday gains in the pair."

If the pair breaks above 1.6180, it will find resistances at 1.6190 and 1.6200. To the downside, supports are at 1.6145, 1.6100 and 1.6090.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD extends gains after disappointing US data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD gathered momentum and reached its highest level in nearly 3 weeks as the USD weakened on the back of disappointing US durable goods orders.

US durable goods orders fell 1.5% in September, marking the second straight decline after a 18.3% drop the previous month and versus a 0.5% rise expected. Excluding transportation, orders declined by a smaller 0.2% against a 0.5% increase forecasted.

AUD/USD broke above previous daily highs and reached a peak of 0.8881 before easing a tad. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.8860 area, recording a 0.69% gain Tuesday.

The Australian dollar was already outperforming supported by upbeat domestic data and rising stocks.

AUD/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.8891 (intraday high), 0.8898/0.8900 (Oct 9 high/psychological level) and 0.8926 (Sept 23 highs). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8785 (10-day SMA), 0.8770 (21-day SMA) and 0.8742 (Oct 22 low).

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Oct 28, 2014

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Natural Gas remains weak, speculators cut bullish bets

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Natural Gas continues to hover near 11-month lows as the prices fail to rebound on bargain hunting demand.

Natural Gas for the December delivery is trading at USD 3.641/mmbtu, after having failed to capitalize on the gains during the European session. Moreover, a record high production and warm weather have kept the bulls at bay. Temperatures will be above normal across most of the lower 48 states over the next five days before readings in the East drop to seasonal or lower levels, according to the Commodity Weather Group LLC.

As per the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data, Hedge funds cut bullish bets by 51 % in the week ended Oct. 21 to the lowest level since April 2012. Net-long positions on four U.S. natural gas contracts declined by 35,257 futures.

Natural Gas Technical levels

Natural Gas has an immediate resistance at 3.7, above which prices can rise to 3.83 levels. On the other hand, prices may fall to 3.5 levels if the immediate support of 3.623 is breached. is breached.

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Oct 28, 2014

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US: Consumer Confidence improves to 94.5 in October, against forecasts

FXStreet (Łódź) - US Consumer Confidence jumped to 94.5 in October, from 89.0 in November, according to data released by the Conference Board. Analysts expected a drop to 87.0. d.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

DJIA gains 0.30%

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets have opened higher, in line with the action witnessed the gains in the European equity markets. The negative Durable goods number released earlier today has failed to have a big impact on the stock markets.

The DJIA is trading 0.33% higher at 16,873.50 levels. The index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 24:6. Among the index stocks, Merck&Co is trading 1.64% lower after it reported the disappointing sales of its Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine. The stock had tumbled 2% yesterday. Meanwhile, the biggest chemical maker by market value, Dupont share price is trading 0.30% up, despite reporting a surprise drop in the third-quarter sales. On the other hand, Caterpillar and Intel share prices are trading higher by 1.69% and 1.16% respectively.

Moreover, the stock markets in the US may extend rally if the consumer confidence number for October due later in the day manages to surpass the expected print of 87.00.

DJIA Technical levels

The index has an immediate support at 16,800 levels, below which the prices can drop to 16,652 levels. On the other hand, the index may extend gains to 17,000 levels if the immediate resistance of 16,900 is breached.

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY expected to continue holding above 105.52 - RBS

FXStreet (Łódź) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS suggests that USD/JPY should continue trading above the key support level of 105.52.

Key quotes

"The USD/JPY has accomplished its correction, which we anticipated after reaching the 109.30 target, as our key support level of 105.52 held on close and dips offered buying opportunities for 112.00 and more upside targets."

"The level was not only 50% swing extension of the 2013 impulse wave and 2013 – 2014 high lie, but also the Ichimoku cloud support."

"I believe the pair will continue to hold above 105.52 and Ichimoku cloud, as our targets of 109.30 and 112.00 remain intact. A break through the cloud cancels the view."

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Oct 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Treasury Secretary Lew confident about soundness of US recovery

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a business forum in South Africa US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the current positive trend in US economy should continue, although he expressed concerns about the weak rebound on the housing market.

He called for easing lending conditions to boost mortgages. He also pointed to the need of a tax reform and improvements in the US infrastructure.

Moreover the suggested that Europe needs a more responsible fiscal policy while China should concentrate on implementing the necessary economic reforms, making its policy more market oriented. However, the Chinese growth slowdown woes are exaggerated, Lew stressed.

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Oct 29, 2014

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