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GBP/USD capped by 1.6600

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After dipping to multi-month lows in the area of 1.6540, the GBP/USD managed to climb back to the boundaries of 1.6600 the figure on Monday.

GBP/USD surrenders early gains

The initial GBP strength seems to have found selling interest in the vicinity of 1.6600 the figure, with spot being rejected to the 1.6580/75 band. There are no scheduled events in the UK economy today, leaving the US docket as the main catalyst for the pair’s price action. “While the undertone for GBP remains weak, the downward momentum is not strong and any further down-move is expected to struggle near 1.6500. However, only a break back above 1.6585 would indicate that a temporary low is in place”, suggested Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.

GBP/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.06% at 1.6580 with the next resistance at 1.6602 (high Aug.21) ahead of 1.6654 (10-d MA) and finally 1.6680 (high Aug.20). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6501 (low Aug.25) would target 1.6460 (low Mar.24) and then 1.6425 (low Feb.12).

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Aug 25, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

European stocks slow down after sharp gains

FXStreet (Córdoba) - European stocks were mixed Tuesday after a steep rally the previous day that were propelled by prospects of further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank.

The Stoxx Europe 600 was flat at 340.48 in early trade. The index rallied 1.1% yesterday as investors price in further monetary stimulus by the ECB. As for country-specific indexes the UK FTSE rose 0.37%. The Germany’s DAX 30 dropped 0.39% and the France’s CAC 40 shed 0.08%. Spain’s Ibex 35 added 0.12% while Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 0.31%.

In the macroeconomic domain, there is no data scheduled for the Eurozone and focus will be on the US, where durable goods orders and consumer confidence are due.

In the currencies market, the US is taking a breather near multi-month highs, after not-so-dovish Yellen speech in Jackson Hole triggered a rally across the board.

As for commodities, gold gained 0.89% to $1,290 an ounce while crude oil advanced 0.10% to $93.44 a barrel.

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Aug 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold recovers from 2-month low

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The yellow metal recovered some ground Tuesday and climbed back to the $1,290/oz area as the greenback eases across the board following a sharp rally inspired by not-so-dovish Yellen remarks in Jackson Hole.

Gold prices edged higher but remained near 2-month lows as a firm dollar and better risk appetite continue to weigh on the metal. Gold for December delivery was up $9.10 or 0.70% at $1,288 an ounce, having hit a daily high of $1,292 in recent dealings.

Prices hit a 2-month low near $1,273 on Aug 21 amid speculation of an eventual US rate hike.

As for silver, the gray metal also edged higher, hitting a daily peak of $19.55 before easing slightly.

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Aug 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD consolidates near 1.0970

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The greenback is range-bounding vs. the Canadian dollar on Tuesday, with the USD/CAD meandering in a narrow range between 1.0960 and 1.0975 so far.

USD/CAD focus on US docket

Spot is probing the lower band of the intraday range around 1.0960, as the risk-on trade seems to be creeping back to the markets in the first half of the week. Ahead in the day, US Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence and house prices gauged by the S&P/Case-Shiller index will take centre stage. “Corporate sellers ahead of the 1.10 and option expiries mid week at 1.10 (reportedly) may be restraining the topside for USDCAD and funds is getting off to a sluggish start here after the test of 1.10 overnight. But there is still keen interest to buy USDCAD from the real money sector and we look for limited weakness near term – solid support should emerge on dips to the low/mid 1.09s. We target a move to the low 1.11s near-term”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.19% at 1.0963 with the next support at 1.0927 (21-d MA) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0883 (200-d MA). On the upside, a breakout of

1.0998 (high Aug.26) would open the door to 1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1026 (61.8% of 1.1279-1.0616).

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Aug 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY tests 104.00 but rejected again

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar jumped to test the 104.00 level against the Japanese Yen but the pair got a new rejection and now it is trading back to 103.85.

Pair was affected by US durable goods orders that rose 22.6% in July; However the data was distorted by large orders in airplanes. Ex-transportation fell 0.8%.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 103.92, down 0.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 104.13 and low at 103.75. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bullish.

USD/JPY levels

There are option expiries at New York's cut around 103.00 ($430 mln) and 103.25 ($200 mln). If the pair managers to break above 104.00, next resistances are at 104.10, 104.25 and 104.45.

On the downside, supports are at 103.75, 103.50 and 103.40.

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Aug 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD indifferent after US docket

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD remains in the negative camp following the release of the US Durable Goods Orders, with the USD/CAD hovering over 1.0965/60.

USD/CAD softer-to-consolidative

Spot is now extending the range-bound pattern around the 1.0960/70 band, after US headline Durable Goods Orders jump 22.6% during the month of July, crushing previous estimates; excluding the Transportation sector, orders contracting at a monthly pace of 0.8%. “We have seen a push higher towards the 1.1000 area in Asia but for now the level has held and has failed to break. There is still talk of barrier defence up there, so a clean break through there should induce further Usd buying. To the downside we would expect to see good support on any pull back towards yesterday’s lows ie around 1.0940/1.0950”, noted Stephen Gallo, European Head, FX Strategy at BMO.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.23% at 1.0960 with the next support at 1.0927 (21-d MA) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0883 (200-d MA). On the upside, a breakout of

1.0998 (high Aug.26) would open the door to 1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1026 (61.8% of 1.1279-1.0616).

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Aug 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Consumer Confidence registered at 92.4 above expectations (89) in August

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Aug 26, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY points to 105.40 medium term – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the pair heading towards 105.40 in the medium term.

Key Quotes

“In the major FX-crosses, the DXY index is pausing after the strong rally last week”.

“The EUR will continue to underperform given expectations of ECB easing and the risk that

TLTRO will ‘crowd out’ foreign buying of periphery bonds”.

“We see the JPY and CHF as vulnerable on likely future monetary easing”.

“Technically, USD-JPY may consolidate after the failure to break through important trend-line resistance. Medium-term charts point to 105.40 and 110.10, in line with our fundamental view”.

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CHF remains below 1.2100 – Commerzbank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The cross keeps the trade below the 1.2100 handle, leaving the door open for further pullbacks, suggested Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“EUR/CHF trades in multi-year lows and has so far dropped to an August low at 1.2072, a slip through which will have the late December 2012 low at 1.2064 in its sights”.

“Below it lies the November 2012 low at 1.2030 which is expected to hold”.

“If not, the major psychological 1.2000 mark could be revisited”.

“Minor resistance comes in around the previous August low at 1.2087. Further resistance can be found at 1.2122/33. It is where the mid-March and July lows were made”.

“While trading below there, immediate downside pressure will exist”.

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD retreats from highs

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The bullish attempt in the single currency is now taking a breather, with the EUR/USD easing to the 1.3180 area after hitting highs near 1.3190.

EUR/USD firmer on risk sentiment

The risk aversion seems to be stepping back on Wednesday, allowing the current rebound from overnight lows around 1.3150. There are no data releases in the euro area and in the US today, leaving spot to the mercy of the risk appetite trends. “EURUSD’s weak performance last week confirms the bearish outlook for the single currency in the near-to-medium term. Having broke consolidation support at 1.3335 (bear wedge on the daily chart, above), we expect EURUSD to stage a repeat of the 1.3697/1.3335 move down from the breakdown point (targets a fall to the high 1.29s)”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.11% at 1.3182 with the next hurdle at 1.3221 (high Aug.25) ahead of 1.3297 (high Aug.22) and then 1.3324 (high Aug.20). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) would aim for 1.3089 (low Jul.19) and finally 1.3051 (low Jul.16 2013).

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP doors open for 0.7935 – Commerzbank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The recent price action in the cross would allow a test of the 0.7935 level, suggested Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“EUR/GBP still slides along the 55 day moving average at .7962, having fallen through the and the two month uptrend line at .7975”.

“Failure at yesterday’s .7953 low will push the .7935 August 13 low to the fore”.

“We still expect EUR/GBP to remain below the .8033/36 resistance zone, made up of the late June and current August highs”.

“A break above the .8033/36 area would introduce scope to challenge the .8074/82 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-to-July decline and May low”.

“Such a rally should fail ahead of the .8136/59 50% retracement, February low and late May high at the very latest”.

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Session Recap: USD backs away from multi-month highs

FXStreet (Córdoba) - With no clear drivers during the European session, the USD weakened somewhat and pulled back from multi-month highs versus the euro and the yen, while commodity currencies continued to outperform.

The EUR/USD rebounded from a fresh almost 1-year low of 1.3152 and reached the 1.3180 zone, while the GBP/USD also recovered but stays below 1.6600. The USD/JPY consolidates just below the 104.00 mark.

As for commodity currencies, the USD/CAD has dropped more than a full cent after being rejected by the 1.1000 area the previous day. The NZD/USD recovered from a 6-month low and climbed to a high of 0.8378 while the AUD/USD remains firm near 0.9350, with buyers appearing in every dip to 0.9300.

"Despite the minor dollar setback today, the uptrend remains intact", says the BBH analyst team. "There still is a strong bias toward buying dollar dips".

European stocks were little changed after a sharp 2-day rally and following a record close above 2000 in the S&P 500 yesterday.

There is no first-tier data scheduled for the Eurozone or the US until tomorrow.

Main Headlines in Europe:

Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey came in at 8.6 below forecasts (9) in September

EUR/USD on its way to 1.3000? – Commerzbank

Italy Consumer Confidence below forecasts (104) in August: Actual (101.9)

European stocks little changed after steep gains

Month-end flows behind USD sales

IMF’s Lagarde under formal investigation for negligence in French political fraud case

Risk-on sentiment pushes higher – Danske Bank

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR poised for further downside - BTMU

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, sees the single currency heading towards lower levels.

Key Quotes

"The foreign exchange market is relatively quiet this morning with narrow trading ranges evident in most currency pairs. The S&P 500 closed above the 2,000 for the first time on record while 10-year US Treasury bond yields declined further."

"It seems pretty clear that until there is something to question the building belief of further ECB easing, the euro is set to gradually grind lower. There are no real obvious events to question that growing belief perhaps through until the ECB monetary policy meeting next week and hence the negative sentiment is set to continue."

"The data calendar is very quiet today but what has just come out is consistent with this growing belief of additional ECB monetary easing. The German import price data for July has just revealed the annual rate fell to -1.7% from -1.4% in June."

"Admittedly through the ECB should become less concerned over the deflationary impetus from import prices given the movement of the euro. Remember, the ECB believes that for every 10% change in the EUR TWI there is an equivalent 0.4-0.5ppt change in the annual inflation rate."

"The ECB Daily Nominal EER-20 index is currently down around 3.6% from its peak earlier this year – so the exchange rate is going in the right direction for alleviating the deflationary impetus through imported prices. Still, the TWI needs to move considerably more to have a meaningful impact."

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US data supportive of the greenback - BTMU

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, observes the performance of the USD post-yesterday releases.

Key Quotes

"The negative momentum in EUR/USD specifically is also being fuelled on the dollar side with the data from the US yesterday solid once again. The durable goods orders report revealed a decent underlying picture once the noise of transport is stripped away."

"The capital goods orders, ex-air and non-defense fell 0.5% in July but this was after a hefty upward revision to June to a gain of 5.4%. The 3-month average annualised rate has been over 11% for three consecutive months."

"Shipments of capital goods are also running at impressive rates as well with the same 3-month average measure running at over 7% for three consecutive months. These underlying details suggest the scope for positive momentum in the capex side of the economy in H2 is notable."

"Finally, consumer confidence defied expectations of a drop rising to 92.4, the highest since October 2007. The expectations component did drop but this was more than offset by the rise in the current conditions component. The jobs plentiful minus hard to get jumped to -12.4, the highest since May 2008."

"The 10-year UST bond-German bund spread is now at 145bps and this historically has been a strong dollar buy signal. A widening spread to these levels was last in place way back in 1999, the early stages of a very strong dollar buying period."

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Potential for JPY weakness in the medium term - BTMU

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks the probability of further downside for the Japanese currency.

Key Quotes

"The period after the release of Q2 GDP data was always going to be the testing time in Japan on whether the next sales tax increase from 8% to 10%, due in October 2015, should be implemented. Etsuro Honda, advisor to PM Abe now says the increase is risky."

"Earlier this year Honda stated that the second increase was possible if real GDP growth was over 3.0% in Q3. This debate could intensify over the coming months and any sense of a delay (rather than abandonment) would be equity supportive and yen negative."

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CHF hits fresh 20-month low

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/CHF pushed lower and broke below the 1.2070 support area to hit its lowest since December 2012 in recent dealings.

The EUR/CHF has been under increasing pressure this month, having lost more than 100 pips so far, which is outstanding for a cross that moves very little ever since the SNB placed a floor back in September 2011.

At time of writing, the EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2063, down 0.14% on the day, having printed a low of 1.2058 so far.

“There has been talk the last several sessions that the SNB has placed bids at 1.2060 to provide a little cushion for the 1.20 CHF cap. Well that line in the sand looks like it is about to get its first test”, said Jamie Coleman, analyst at FXBeat. “Perhaps a small punt to the long side with a very tight stop and a modest t/p, say 1.2080/85 might be worthwhile. Don't expect much in the way of fireworks”

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD dips below 1.0900

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD lost more than 100 pips over the last session after being rejected from the 1.1000 resistance area and amid month-end dollar selling flows.

The loonie is among the best performers Wednesday, having briefly dropped below 1.0900 to hit an 8-day low of 1.0888 before finding support. The USD/CAD has managed to trim some of its recent losses and it is currently trading at the 1.0895 area, still 0.46% below its opening price.

USD/CAD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, a decisive break below 1.0888/81 (Aug 27 low/200-day SMA), could open the way toward 1.0862/59 (100-day SMA/Aug 15 low) and 1.0820 (Jul 25 high). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.1000 (Aug 26 high) and 1.1022 (61.8% Fibo of 1.1277-1.0619).

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Aug 27, 2014

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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at -2.07M, below expectations (1.1M) in August 22

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Aug 27, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change registered at -2.07M, below expectations (1.1M) in August 22

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After a promising start of the session climbing to fresh weekly highs around 1.3220, the EUR/USD has rapidly deflated to test intraday lows near 1.3170 so far.

In the view of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, “EUR/USD has so far slipped to an August low at 1.3153 while en route to the 1.3105 September low and the psychological 1.3000 region. Today it is expected to recover, though”.

In addition, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank Emmanuel Ng commented, “Note that the pair managed to regain its footing somewhat on Thursday on the back of wire reports indicating no further initiatives from the ECB next week but we expect sentiment to remain fragile in the intervening period with key event risks expected from German CPI numbers today and EZ CPI reading tomorrow. In the interim, we stay the course with a heavy EUR-USD stance with the next visible support expected at 1.3150 if the foothold at 1.3200 is lost”.

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Aug 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR, GBPNand the chance of a bounce - Societe Generale

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, sees the likelihood of a rebound in both GBP and the EUR.

Key Quotes

"The conditions, therefore, are ripe for a euro short-covering bounce. The speculative market is short; EUR/USD has been falling despite tightening peripheral spreads, and looks too low in the short-term on regressions of spreads and rate differentials."

"Month-end FX reserve re-balancing is also a possible trigger for a bounce. Indeed, there's even talk of SNB euro buying at these levels of EUR/CHF."

"And finally, as a potential catalyst, there's a chance of positive economic news from German unemployment and Euro area money supply today. All in all, reason enough to think a bounce is possible. Only a correction through 1.340 would break the current downtrend and excite technicians, and the more modest the bounce, the worse the technical outlook."

"The lack of fresh news also opens up the possibility of GBP/USD bouncing a bit further today, with CBI distributive trends the only data of note. As observed yesterday, GBP weakness has been more about long positions being cut than shorts being built, and this too argues for a modest bounce."

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Aug 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Further easing by ECB next week, a close call? – BTMU

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, says inflation figures in EMU and Germany could be relevant in next week's ECB meeting.

Key Quotes

"The euro has rebounded back above the 1.3200 level after Reuters yesterday quoted ECB sources as stating that there would be no monetary easing steps announced at next week’s policy meeting. With euro short positioning becoming more substantial, unsubstantiated stories of this kind can have the necessary impact on stabilising the currency."

"In reality, if any decision is finely balanced, the flash estimates for August inflation from Germany today and the euro-zone tomorrow may well have a bearing on any decision taken next week. After ECB President Draghi’s comment at Jackson Hole that inflation expectations have become unanchored, the ECB will be sensitive to any further evidence of downside inflation risks worsening."

"The German EU harmonised annual inflation rate is expected to come in unchanged at 0.8% in August – any undershoot will just serve to intensify speculation of easing next week. Both a small rate cut and/or the start of ABS QE are possibilities for next week and we would lean toward ABS QE as being the more likely of the two, simply because it is one of the measures that was announced in June, is already being worked on and looks like less of a panic move. Draghi believes in the June measures and therefore full implementation is the natural conclusion."

"We should also perhaps be careful not to overplay the inflation expectations comments from Jackson Hole. It was very significant but how reliable are financial market indicators during the month of August, during holiday thin trading conditions? It would appear very rash for the ECB to undergo additional monetary easing based just on falling inflation expectations during August."

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Aug 28, 2014

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United States Gross Domestic Product Price Index came in at 2.2%, above forecasts (2%) in 2Q

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Aug 28, 2014

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US: GDP (Q2) expanded 4.2% YoY

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that the US economy expanded at an annual pace of 4.2% during the second quarter, exceeding forecasts for an expansion of 3.9% and reverting the previous 2.1% contraction.

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Aug 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD consolidates 0.9340 bounce

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie is consolidating levels versus the US Dollar as the pair found support at 0.9340 after a 35-pip decline from 0.9375. Then the AUD/USD bounced to 0.9360 where the pair remains trading now.

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9355, up 0.20% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9376 and low at 0.9332. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is also neutral.

AUD/USD sentiment

If the pair continues to advance, it will face resistances at 0.9375, 0.9415 and 0.9450. On the downside, 0.9350, 0.9340 and 0.9330.

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Aug 28, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD makes fresh daily lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD moved a step lower and printed fresh daily lows early New York session, weighed by renewed geopolitical tensions and solid US data.

While US GDP and jobless claims beat expectations, recent data showed pending home sales dropped 2.7% in July versus a 3.5% fall expected. However, USD reaction has been subdued as investors' attention turns to tomorrow’s Eurozone inflation figures as according to sources, it could prompt the ECB to announce easing measures next week should they point to growing deflation pressures.

At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3168, recording a 0.18% loss on the day, having been rejected by the 1.3220 zone.

EUR/USD technical outlook

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the EUR/USD shows increasing bearish potential. “A break below 1.3150 should see the pair extending its decline towards the 1.3100 price zone, albeit market is expected to remain on hold, ahead of tomorrow EZ inflation data, and next week Central Bank meeting”, said Bednarik.

The analyst locates immediate support levels at 1.3150, 1.3120 and 1.3090, while she sees resistances at 1.3215, 1.3240 and 1.3280.

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Aug 28, 2014

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