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EUR/JPY contained above 137.60



FXStreet (San Francisco) - The EUR/JPY jumped to 3-week highs at 137.85 overnight, however the pair wasn't able to hold at highs but the rejection was contained at 137.60.


Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 137.64, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 137.87 and low at 137.47. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bullish.


EUR/JPY levels


If the pair breaks below 137.60, it will face supports at 137.50, 137.45 and 137.20. On the upside, resistances are at 137.80, 138.00 and 139.00.







Aug 21, 2014

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Eurozone PMIs signal decelerating but positive growth in August - BNP Paribas




FXStreet (Łódź) - Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas, suggests that the slowdown in Eurozone PMI to 52.8 in August sends mixed signals regarding the evolution of activity in Q3.


Key quotes


"In the Eurozone, the composite output PMI index lost in August the whole point it

gained in July."


"It fell to 52.8, a level consistent with GDP growth well above zero recorded in Q2 though, around 0.3%q/q according to Markit."


"The surveys suggest that the deceleration in activity was widespread, but significantly larger in industry than in services."


"In the latter, the business activity index fell by less than a point and remained at a still comfortable level of 53.5."


"In the manufacturing sector, however, the output index, after stabilizing in July, started again to lose substantial ground. It fell by almost two points in August, and, at 50.9, suggests output is hardly increasing in that sector."


"In Germany especially, manufacturing activity and business climate is likely to be badly hit by increasing geopolitical tensions, and especially by sanctions against Russia."








Aug 21, 2014

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EUR/USD finds no inspiration in data



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD barely moved following the latest series of economic data as investors seem unwilling to push the dollar further ahead of Fed Yellen speech tomorrow in Jackson Hole.


Data showed Eurozone consumer confidence declined further in August with the index hitting -10 versus -9.0 expected. On the other side of the Atlantic, July existing home sales rose 2.4% versus a fall of 0.4% expected while the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 28.0 against 19.2 forecasted. US leading economic index rose to 0.9% versus consensus of 0.6%.


The EUR/USD moved a few pips lower before bouncing to fresh daily highs, although the move was tame, with the pair stalling at a high of 1.3280. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is at 1.3275, 0.13% above its opening price.


EUR/USD technical outlook


“Dollar momentum seems temporarily interrupted, with US indexes at record highs and US 10Y yields above 2.40%, giving high yields a breath”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “Technically however, the pair is far from suggesting a strong upward potential, with the 1 hour chart showing indicators flat above their midlines and price above a still bearish 20 SMA. In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain their bearish slope despite in oversold levels, supporting the shorter term view”.


Bednarik locates immediate supports at 1.3250, 1.3210 and 1.3170 while she sees resistances at 1.3300, 1.3330 and 1.3370.








Aug 21, 2014

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USD/CAD making steady progress- TD Securities



FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts expect the USD/CAD to reach 1.1050 in the near-term and then the 1.12 level in the next few weeks.


Key quotes


"USD/CAD closed firmly Wednesday and made a little more progress overnight to eek out a marginal new cycle high in the upper 1.09s before drifting back."


"After working through corporate selling interest in the mid 1.09s, yesterday afternoon’s push up in the USD broadly took funds through important technical resistance at 1.0960 into the close—just. But 'just' might be good enough."


"We are still bullish and think the rise through 1.0960 will underpin the broader rebound in USD/CAD that really got under way in late July."


"We continue to target 1.1050 near-term but we think 1.12 is reachable in the next few weeks. We target 1.15 in Q1 2015."


"Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USD/CAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment."


"Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more."








Aug 21, 2014

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USD/JPY pulls back after faltering at 103.95



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following another rejection ahead of the 104.00 level, the USD/JPY turned south and corrected some of its recent gains.


The USD/JPY found resistance once again at the 103.95 area and pulled back, turning intraday negative and hitting a daily low of 103.67 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 103.70, 0.12% below its opening price.


With no US data scheduled for today, focus remains on the Jackson Hole symposium where not only Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today, but also other top central bankers as BoJ Kuroda and ECB Draghi.


USD/JPY technical levels


As for technical levels, above 103.95/104.00, next resistances could be found at 104.12 (Apr 4 high), 104.32 (76.4% Fibo of 105.44-100.75) and 104.84 (Jan 23 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 103.59 (Aug 21 low), 103.00 (psychological level), 102.88 (Aug 20 low) and 102.51 (Aug 19 low).








Aug 22, 2014

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Risk sentiment in ‘wait-and-see’ ahead of Jackson Hole – Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The risk-on trade remains dormant at the end of the trading week, ahead of the events from the Jackson Hole Symposium, commented Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank.


Key Quotes


“Risk sentiment overall remains positive but the market is gradually going to wait-and-see mode ahead of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech this afternoon”.


“Yesterday’s macroeconomic data were mixed. In the US data were better than expected across the board and the housing data particularly continued to suggest that the recovery in the euro area and China remains fragile”.


In the US S&P 500 closed at a new record high yesterday and Asian stock markets are mostly higher this morning, taking their lead from the US. In the FX market the USD is taking a breather after the recent sharp appreciation and the major FX crosses have been largely range trading overnight”.


“10-year US bonds yields have also declined slightly since market close in Europe yesterday, as the market has turned its attention from the slightly hawkish Fed minutes to Yellen’s speech later today”.


“In connection with the official opening of the Jackson Hole central bank conference yesterday, some of Fed’s hawks had the opportunity to express their views”.


“Kansas City Fed President Esther George, the conference host, in her opening remarks said broad-based employment gains suggest that the US economy is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates”.


“Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser, who dissented at the last Fed meeting, said that very easy monetary policy is increasingly risky. Plosser also warned against making wage development the centrepiece of monetary policy, as its relationship with inflation is not strong”.








Aug 22, 2014

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What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is staging some sort of recovery from yesterday’s multi-month lows near 1.3250, ahead of the key Jackson Hole Symposium.


“In the run-up to Yellen and Draghi later today, market skepticism towards any rebound beyond 1.3330 is expected to mount while 1.3230 may continue to attract. As noted previously, any hawkish hints out of the Fed are likely to be juxtaposed against the ECB’s ongoing dovishness and this may continue to weigh on the pair”, noted Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.


Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, observed the pair “probed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-14 rise at 1.3249 and briefly made a new August low at 1.3242 before stabilising on Thursday. A minor bounce is thus likely to be seen… Minor resistance comes in around 1.3333/36 and more important resistance along the three month downtrend line at 1.3422”.








Aug 22, 2014

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USD/JPY points to consolidation near term – Commerzbank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, the pair could attempt a consolidation pattern in the very near term.


Key Quotes


“USD/JPY has now risen above the March high at 103.77 and so far rose to 103.96. It continues to have the April peak at 104.13 in focus but is expected to consolidate below it today”.


“Together with the 104.45 78.6% retracement, 104.13 is regarded as the last defence for the 105.45 2014 high”.


“Minor support comes in around the July peak at 103.15”.


“We will retain our bullish view while USD/JPY remains above the current August low at 101.51”.








Aug 22, 2014

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USD/CAD in highs near 1.0960



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is resuming its rally on Friday, taking the USD/CAD to test session highs near 1.0960.


USD/CAD focus on CPI


The pair is extending its bounce off overnight lows in the 1.0930 area, ahead of the key inflation figures due in Canada later. Market consensus expects headline consumer prices to expand at an annual rate of 2.3% in July, down from June’s 24%; Core prices are expected to tick higher to 1.9% over the last twelve months vs. 1.8% YoY previous. “Short, medium and long-term trend studies are still bullishly aligned so we expect softness to base around short-term trend support at 1.0934 currently”, noted Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.


USD/CAD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is up 0.14% at 1.0957 and a breakout of 1.0987 (high Aug.21) would open the door to1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1053 (high Apr.23). On the flip side, the next support aligns at 1.0933 (low aug.20) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0870 (200-d MA).








Aug 22, 2014

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USD bullishness remains intact



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, observed the firmer tone from the US dollar.


Key Quotes


"more strong US data ahead of speech from Fed Chair Yellen The US dollar has weakened modestly in the Asian trading session paring gains recorded after the release of the more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes. The dollar index has almost fully retraced its initial move higher following the release of the minutes on Wednesday alongside the pullback in long-term US yields, although short-term US yields still remain higher. The US dollar has been able to hold onto more of its recent gains against the yen with USD/JPY having broken out to the upside from its recent tight trading range between the 101.00 and 103.00 levels."



"The relative underperformance of the yen is also likely a reflection of both building expectations of accelerated monetary easing from the BoJ, and the ongoing easing of safe haven demand for the yen. Global investor risk sentiment has continued to improve this week with US equities rising to a new record high overnight having fully retraced their correction lower from earlier this month. Risk assets and more high beta currencies like the Australian dollar are reacting favourably to further evidence that the US economy is continuing to strengthen while US yields continue to remain close to recent lows."


"A batch of stronger than expected economic reports was released yesterday from the US which has supported global investor risk sentiment and reinforces the case for a stronger US dollar in the near-term. The release of the latest manufacturing PMI survey revealed that business confidence increased by 1.2 point to 58.0 in August."


"It was the highest level since April 2010 providing further evidence that robust manufacturing growth momentum has been sustained so far in Q3. The Philly Fed business outlook survey also increased by 4.1 point to 28.0 in August, and the index of leading indicators by a robust 0.9% in July. The leading index has increased by an average of 0.7%/month over the last three months bringing it back into line with the strong growth momentum evident late last year prior to the Q1 slowdown."


"The pullback in the US dollar overnight ahead of today’s keynote speech from Fed Chair Yellen is understandable following the strong gains recorded earlier this week and the likelihood that Fed Chair Yellen continues to sound dovish which is likely encouraging a paring of long US dollar positions. As we have stated before we do not expect Fed Chair Yellen’s speech on the labour market today to a signal a shift in Fed monetary policy rather she is more likely to reiterate her view that labour market conditions continue to improve but that there is still significant underutilisation of labour market resources allowing the Fed to maintain loose monetary policy."









Aug 22, 2014

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Canada: CPI (Jul) rose 2.1% YoY



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Canadian headline consumer prices rose 2.1% on a year through July, missing forecasts for a 2.3% gain. On a monthly basis prices contracted 0.2%, vs. -0.1% expected. The Bank of Canada Core CPI rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and dropped 0.1% inter-month.








Aug 22, 2014

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USD/CAD spiked to 1.0980 on data



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar has abruptly depreciated just beyond 1.0980 vs. the greenback on Friday, although the USD/CAD quickly returned to the mid-10900s.


USD/CAD neutral post-CPI


The quick climb to fresh tops around 1.0980 proved to be ephemeral, as spot is now hovering over the 1.0950/45 region. Consumer prices in the Canadian economy expanded 2.1% on a yearly basis and contracted 0.2% inter-month, both prints missing previous estimates at 2.3% and -0.1%, respectively. Core prices, gauged by the BoC also disappointed traders, coming in at 1.7% YoY and -0.1% MoM. The positive news followed a better-than-expected Retail Sales figures, advancing 1.1% in June. Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank commented that “short term technicals are mixed with some studies warning of upside risk and others warning of downside risk, leading to a range bound environment”.


USD/CAD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is up 0.10% at 1.0952 and a breakout of 1.0987 (high Aug.21) would open the door to1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1053 (high Apr.23). On the flip side, the next support aligns at 1.0933 (low aug.20) ahead of 1.0899 (high Aug.18) and finally 1.0870 (200-d MA).








Aug 22, 2014

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USD/JPY bulls let their chance slip through the fingers; 104.00 is still unbroken



FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY touched the intraday high at 104.06 on the back of Yellen's comments, but the bullish momentum was not strong enough as the pair returned to its old range, currently trading at 103.90


Unhelpful Yellen


Janet Yellen has driven markets crazy with her so long awaited speech in Jackson Hole. She stated that rates might be raised sooner if there is a faster progress on goals, while slower progress will delay rate increase. Sounds like she tries to have something for bears and something for bulls at the same time. Investors hoped that this speech will help them to shape a clear USD direction, but they might get nothing more that just a bout of volatility. Thus USD/JPY returned below 104.00 level. The nearest support is still at 103.60.


What price levels and patterns have to be considered?


Spot is presently trading at 103.94, and next resistance can be seen at 103.97 (Yesterday's High), 104.01 (Daily Classic R1), 104.07 (Daily High), 104.18 (Daily Classic R2) and 104.39 (Daily Classic R3).


Support below can be found at 103.85 (Daily Open), 103.85 (Monthly High), 103.85 (Weekly High), 103.81 (Daily Classic PP) and 103.78 (Hourly 20 EMA).








Aug 22, 2014

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Geopolitical risks remain alive – Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, the situation in Ukraine continues to be alarming.


Key Quotes


“On the geopolitical front, Ukraine on Sunday marked its independence day, while intense


fighting continued around the rebel-held city of Donetsk”.


“On Friday, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that the alliance had observed ‘an alarming’ build-up of Russian ground and air force near the border of Ukraine”.


“Rasmussen’s comments likely have contributed to the negative sentiment in the markets since Friday”.









Aug 25, 2014

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European stocks boosted by Draghi



FXStreet (Córdoba) - European stocks rose Monday as sentiment improved after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi lifted expectations of further policy easing. Speaking at a symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Draghi said late on Friday the ECB is prepared to respond with all its available tools if inflation continues to fall.


The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.61% to 338.81 in early trade Monday. The index gained 2.1% last week, the most since February. As for country-specific indexes the Germany’s DAX 30 advanced 1.13% while the France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.03%. Spain’s Ibex 35 added 0.83% while Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.97%. The UK market is closed today for a holiday.


In the macroeconomic domain, German IFO survey showed German economy continues to lose strength. Business climate index fell to 106.3 vs 107 expected in August while current assessment dropped to 111.1 versus 112.0 and expectations index slid to 101.7 vs 102.0.


In the currencies market, the US dollar continues to consolidate near multi-month highs after Fed Yellen not-so-dovish comments Friday.


As for commodities, gold shed 0.17% to $1,278 an ounce while crude oil was nearly flat at $93.61 a barrel.










Aug 25, 2014

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What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Westpac



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is putting the 1.3200 critical support to the test on Monday, largely ignoring the poor IFO results and following the dovish appreciations from ECB’s Draghi over the weekend.


“To the delight of the ECB, EUR/USD is probing lows since Sep 2013 and seems on track for substantial further decline multi-week/month… The data week ahead should tend mildly negative for EUR/USD but is overshadowed by the early Sep data flurry, so while retaining a downward bias on the week, we suspect new lows will only be marginal, with 1.3105 support to hold”, observed strategists at Westpac Global Strategy Group.


In addition, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank Axel Rudolph commented the pair “has slipped through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012-14 rise and the last week’s August low at 1.3249/42 and thus nears the September 2012 high at 1.3173 while en route to the 1.3105 September low and the psychological 1.3000 region”.










Aug 25, 2014

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EUR/USD reclaims 1.3200




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now picking up pace and lifting the EUR/USD back to challenge the significant 1.3200 barrier.


EUR/USD remains bearish


The bearish tone from Mario Drgahi at the Jackson Hole Symposium is still weighing on the pair at the beginning of the week. Although spot seems to have absorbed quite well the disappointment from the German IFO series, the results added to a negative streak of data releases in the euro region, supporting the idea of further easing by the ECB at some point in the medium term. Analysts at BTMU assessed, “The deteriorating euro-zone economic growth outlook appears in more marked contrast to the improving US growth outlook in the near-term undermining the relative appeal of the euro compared to the US dollar… The elevated scale of speculative euro shorts may help to dampen further downside in the near-term, although widening economic divergences still argue in favour of a weaker euro.


EUR/USD key levels


At the moment the pair is losing 0.30% at 1.3200 with the next support at 1.3157 (low Sep.9 2013) followed by 1.3105 (low Sep.6 2013) and finally 1.3089 (low Jul.19 2013). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.3297 (high Aug.22) would aim for 1.3324 (high Aug,20) and then 1.3361 (21-d MA).









Aug 25, 2014

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GBP/USD fills the opening gap, nears 1.6600




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has managed to extend its recovery during the European session, filling the downward opening gap in the process.


The GBP/USD has been in slowly moving away from fresh 5-month lows scored at the opening, having regained the 50-hour SMA and moving closer to the 1.6600 zone. At time of writing, the Cable is trading at the 1.6590 zone, 0.10% above its opening price.


In the absence of fresh economic data, investors are still assessing Friday’s Yellen speech, which was perceived as less dovish by markets.


GBP/USD technical outlook


“The overall outlook below 1.6600 intraday resistance remains bearish, for a slide towards 1.6460”, said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at Deltastock. “Crucial on the upside is 1.6650-70 area”.









Aug 25, 2014

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NZD/USD potential decline to 0.8300 – Westpac




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at Westpac Global Strategy Group expects the downside pressure to drag the pair lower to the 0.8300 region.


Key Quotes


“The decline in NZD/USD, which started on 10 July from 0.8836, has resumed. From here we should see a continuation to 0.8300 during the days/weeks ahead”.


“US factors pushing the USD higher are the main explanations, but NZ’s soft economic patch has also contributed (our short term economic data pulse model is currently pointing downwards), as has the RBNZ’s intervention threat voiced in July”.


“We continue to target 0.8200 by year end”.









Aug 25, 2014

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USD longs keep building up - ANZ




FXStreet (Barcelona) - ANZ Strategists, Khoon Goh and HuiYing Chan, assessed last spec positioning report.


Key Quotes


"Leveraged funds’ net long USD positioning increased, rising from USD16.1bn to USD19.6bn. Notably, this is the fifth consecutive week of increases. The increase this week was primarily against EUR and GBP."


"Net short positioning in EUR was increased by USD2.2bn (13.4k contracts), likely as a result of lower-than-expected Q2 growth in the Eurozone. Total net short positions now stand at USD20.0bn. With 10 year German bond yields now below 1.0%, EURUSD could likely stay depressed for a short while."


"Net long positions in GBP continued to be reduced for the eighth consecutive week, falling by USD1.3bn (11.8k contracts) with the release of Carney’s dovish comments at the Quarterly Inflation Report’s press conference on 13 August compared to his comments at the Mansion house. While Bank of England August Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes on 21 August revealed that 2 out of 9 members voted for an increase in the base rate by 25bps, GBP/USD rallied only temporarily before falling further. Price action in this pair indicates that the reduction in net long positioning in GBP might continue even after 8 weeks of declines."


"Net short Positioning in the JPY was increased by 5.0k contracts worth USD0.6bn to 71.9k contracts for an overall short position of USD8.7bn."


"Net long positioning in the AUD increased by 7.6k contracts (USD0.7bn) as low volatility encouraged carry-seeking positions in AUDUSD."


"The net long non-commercial position in gold fell by 13.1k contracts to 152.8k. Net long positioning in WTI crude oil fell by 2.8k contracts to 325.5k. This is the eighth consecutive weekly decline in oil positioning since reaching record highs in late June."









Aug 25, 2014

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USD/CHF in multi-month peaks – Commerzbank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, suggests the pair could climb to the 55-month MA round 0.9360.


Key Quotes


“USD/CHF is trading at levels last seen in November 2013 and now probes the 200 week moving average at .9157 and has the 55 month moving average at .9351 in its sights”.


“This held the topside in 2012 and 2013 and is expected to do so again, at least for several days”.


“Above here, at .9392, lies the 29 year downtrend. Only unexpected failure at the current August low at .9020 would allow for losses back to the three month uptrend line and the 55 day moving average at .9013/.9004 to occur”.


“While this holds the bull trend remains entrenched”.









Aug 25, 2014

OctaFX.Com News Updates





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N Farid,

OctaFx Support Team!

[email protected] | +32 2792 4855

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