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EUR/CHF negative below 1.2178 – Commerzbank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling bias will prevail in the cross while below the 1.2178 level, observed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Key Quotes

“EUR/CHF dipped to 1.2087 on Friday, a level last seen in December 2012”.

“In case of a drop through it being seen the November 2012 low at 1.2030 will be targeted”.

“For today we expect it to stabilise around the 1.2101 March low”.

“EUR/CHF will considered to be negative while trading below the 1.2178 late July high”.

“Initial resistance comes in around the 1.2133 early July low with more resistance coming in around the 55 day moving average at 1.2158”.

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD still a sell on strength - Societe Generale

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, remains a seller on EUR rallies.

Key Quotes

"There is no new geo-political news over the weekend, and although hopes of a resolution to the Ukraine conflict are faint, we're starting the week with a (timid) risk bounce, and a dollar-negative bias. EUR/USD may test the top of the current mini-range (1.3330-1.3430) but is a sell on rallies; USD/JPY is stuck fast in its 101-103 range but we remain long; GBP/USD needs to break 1.6660 to re-invigorate the downtrend (maybe the CPI data tomorrow will help). Strong employment data have not had much impact on CAD but support a view that selling AUD/USD in a 0.93-0.94 range is a better strategic trade than buying USD/CAD. NOK/SEK continues to test 1.12."

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD consolidates below 1.0900

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD trades a touch softer Monday still capped below 1.0900, with the latest series of domestic data having no impact on the loonie.

Data showed foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by CAD 1.07 billion in June, led by the largest selloff on record of Canadian government bonds.

The USD/CAD barely reacted to data but moved slightly higher within its 20-pip daily range. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0885, down 0.11% on the day.

USD/CAD levels to watch

As for technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0874 (20-day SMA), 1.0864/67 (200-day SMA/100-day SMA) and 1.0848 (Jul 30 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.0920 (10-day SMA), 1.0939 (Aug 13 high) and 1.0952 (Aug 12 high).

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD consolidates below 1.0900

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD trades a touch softer Monday still capped below 1.0900, with the latest series of domestic data having no impact on the loonie.

Data showed foreign investors reduced their holdings of Canadian securities by CAD 1.07 billion in June, led by the largest selloff on record of Canadian government bonds.

The USD/CAD barely reacted to data but moved slightly higher within its 20-pip daily range. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0885, down 0.11% on the day.

USD/CAD levels to watch

As for technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0874 (20-day SMA), 1.0864/67 (200-day SMA/100-day SMA) and 1.0848 (Jul 30 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.0920 (10-day SMA), 1.0939 (Aug 13 high) and 1.0952 (Aug 12 high).

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Norges Bank could revise up its rate path – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief Analyst Thomas Harr at Danske Bank thinks the Nordinc central bank could revise its rate path higher in the next monetary policy meeting.

Key Quotes

“We expect NB to revise the rate path upwards at the next monetary policy meeting on 18 September”.

“NB currently says that rates will be kept at the current level until the end of 2015 followed by a ‘gradual rise’ and that it sees a 30% probability of a rate cut over the next year”.

“The new rate path might remove the probability of a rate cut, bring forward the first rate hike and make the gradual rise in rates in 2016-17 less gradual”.

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: NAHB Housing Market Index up to 55 August

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 55 in August, from 53 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged.

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/NZD resistance level at 1.9735 tested - ForexTrading.TV

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 55 in August, from 53 in July, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to remain unchanged.

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD around 1.3350, US docket eyed

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is trading on the back footing on Tuesday, taking the EUR/USD to the area of 1.3350.

EUR/USD focus on US CPI

Spot continues to trade in the broader 1.3330-1.3450 range, looking for any catalysts to break the pattern either way. Ahead in the day, US consumer prices are due with consensus expecting headline CPI to have increased 2.0% in a year to July, a tad lower than June’s 2.1%; further data will also bring Housing Starts (0.970M exp.) and Building Permits (1.0M exp.). “Our optimal scenario is for price to continue respecting a bearish consolidation (triangle) on the daily chart, which will point to a resumption of the underlying trend lower on a break under 1.3340. Gains through the low 1.34s will raise the risk of a squeeze higher through the upper 1.34/low 1.35 zone, however”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

EUR/USD significant levels

The pair is now losing 0.11% at 1.3347 and a breakdown of 1.3336 (low Aug.12) would target 1.3333 (2014 low Aug.6) en route to 1.3318 (low Nov.8 2013). On the upside, the immediate hurdle aligns at 1.3399 (high Aug.18) followed by 1.3415 (200-w MA) and finally 1.3416 (high Aug.13).

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Aug 19, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: CPI (Jul) rose 2.0%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Department of Labour informed that US consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 2.0% during July, banging on estimates. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.9% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month.

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Aug 19, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD hits fresh 2014 lows after US data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD fell to fresh year-to-date lows after the latest series of US inflation and housing data.

Although inflation figures were in line with expectations, housing starts jumped to the highest level in 8 months, indicating a pick up in building. Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market’s expectations. Separated data showed housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted.

The dollar strengthened broadly and dragged the EUR/USD to fresh 2014 lows as stops were triggered. The pair rushed to a low of 1.3319 so far and it was last down 0.24% at 1.3330.

EUR/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, next supports are now seen at 1.3295 (Nov 7 2013 low), 1.3250 (mid-September 2013 lows) and 1.3230 (Sep 10 2013 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.3400 (psychological level), 1.3411/14 (Aug 13 & 15 highs) y 1.3432 (Aug 8 high).

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Aug 19, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD back to 1.0900

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD quickly faded the spike to fresh highs just below 1.0920 in the wake of the US data releases.

USD/CAD tests fresh highs on US data

Spot posted fresh 3-day highs after the US consumer prices advanced 2.0% in a year to July, in line with market forecasts. Core prices rose 1.9% over the last twelve months, in line with estimates and previous print. Further data showed both Building Permits and Housing Starts surpassing expectations at 1.052M and 1.093 M, respectively. In the view of Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “Having found firm support late last week around the 200-day MA, USDCAD really needs to make a little clearer headway through the low 1.09 area if it is to stabilize—and improve further – from a technical point of view… We look for support at 1.0890/95 today to provide a base for funds to retest 1.0950 in the days ahead”.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is advancing 0.17% at 1.0906 facing the next hurdle at 1.0919 (high Aug.15) followed by 1.0921 (high Aug.14) and finally 1.0941 (high Aug.13). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0868 (200-d MA) would open the door to 1.0861 (low Aug.15) and then 1.0808 (Kijun).

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Aug 19, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD edges even lower after US data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD stretched to yet another 4-month low at the beginning of the American session as the greenback strengthened after the release of US inflation and housing data.

Annual US consumer price index grew by 2.0% for the headline and 1.9% for the core in July, matching market's expectations. On a strong note, US housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.093 million in July versus 7.6% forecasted, reaching the highest level in 8 months and indicating a pick up in building.

The GBP/USD, that was underperforming in the wake of UK CPI downside surprise, fell to a fresh 4-month low of 1.6622 in recent dealings.

GBP/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, the Cable could find next supports at 1.6602/00 (Apr 8 low/psychological level), 1.6564 (Apr 7 low) and 1.6548 (Apr 4 low). On the flip side, resistances are now seen at 1.6667 (200-day SMA), 1.6700 (psychological level) and 1.6727 (Aug 19 high).

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Aug 19, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD extends its rally - BTMU

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks the USD upside momentum ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Key Quotes

"Upward trend resumes after stalling during the first half of August The US dollar has continued to strengthen in the Asian trading session leading to USD/JPY breaking above the top of its recent tight trading range between 101.00 and 103.00. US dollar upward momentum resumed yesterday with the dollar index rising to its highest level since the 9th September 2013 after finally breaking decisively above resistance at around the 81.50-level."

"The US dollar is continuing to derive support from the ongoing outperformance of the US economy in the near-term which appears to be strengthening while growth in most other major economies is losing momentum. It was revealed yesterday that both housing starts and building permits rebounded by more than expected in July providing further evidence that the US housing market is beginning to rebound after weakness in the first half of this year. Still, the underlying trend in housing starts remains one of only very gradual improvement while permits have flat-lined so far during 2014."

"The release yesterday of the latest US CPI report also revealed that inflation pressures have eased over the last couple of months. Core inflation increased for the second consecutive month by just 0.1% in July."

"It supports Fed Chair Yellen’s view that the pick-up in inflation in the first five months of this year may prove to be just “noise” with underlying inflation pressures still subdued. As a result the Fed is likely to feel more comfortable to maintain its current loose monetary stance for longer which will help dampen upward pressure on US yields and the US dollar from strengthening economic growth momentum in the US."

"It leaves us a little cautious about chasing further US dollar gains in the near-term ahead of Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Before that the release of the latest FOMC minutes from their 29th-30th July meeting will be in focus today. We do not expect a more detailed discussion of the Fed’s expect strategy until later this year after the Fed has brought an end to QE in the autumn."

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD clinches to 1.6650

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling remains on the right footing on Wednesday, with the GBP/USD meandering around the mid-1.6600s so far.

GBP/USD bid despite the risk-off tone

The upbeat sentiment post-BoE minutes is currently bolstering the upside in the sterling, managing quite well to keep the middle area of 1.6600. It is worth recalling that the GBP reacted positively following the MPC vote, where members M.Weale and I.McCafferty favoured an immediate rate hike. “The August MPC Minutes symbolically brought the first dissenting policy votes, but we do not believe that a November 2014 Bank Rate hike is materially more likely following these Minutes… The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015”, suggested Ross Walker, Analyst at RBS.

GBP/USD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is up 0.20% at 1.6650 with the next hurdle at 1.6722 (10-d MA) followed by 1.6728 (high Aug.19) and finally 1.6739 (high Aug.18). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6567 (low Apr.7) would target 1.6555 (low Apr.4) en route to 1.6500 (psychological level).

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

No November BoE rate hike expected despite dissenting votes - RBS

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that even though two MPC members decided to vote for a 25 bp rate hike in August, as BoE minutes showed, the rise should not be carried out as soon as November 2014.

Key quotes

"We continue to regard Mssrs Weale and McCafferty as outliers not bellwethers – at the margin, our confidence in this view is reinforced following yesterday's CPI inflation data and today's MPC Minutes."

"The RBS forecast remains for the first 25bp hike to come in February 2015, with 25bp increases in the Inflation Report months of May, August and November 2015 – ie, Bank Rate at 1.5% at end-2015."

"The risks around this forecast are tilted modestly towards later and slower tightening (eg, heightened financial market volatility around the May 2015 election might augur in favour of unchanged policy settings)."

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Poland Producer Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -1.7% to -2% in July

Read more in Forex News

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP trend line and MA important short term support for continuation - ForexTrading.TV

FXStreet (Łódź) - Laith Marmarchi, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, suggests that the EUR/GBP trend line and MA provide important short term support for continuation.

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Encouraging price action for USD/CAD bulls - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of analysts suggest that the gains in funds over the past few days from the upper 1.08 area is very encouraging for USD/CAD bulls.

Key quotes

"The market is ripe for another, broader squeeze up in the USD under the right circumstances."

"Today in particular that would come in the form of disappointing Canadian wholesale trade data (weaker data may point to softer growth) and a constructive undertone to the FOMC minutes."

"Technically, a push through resistance at 1.0960—the top of the broad bull flag consolidation channel in formation over the past few months—should set the USD up for more medium-term gains (towards 1.16/1.17 potentially in the next 6-9 months)."

"This level should resonate a little more with the market than the neckline of what looks to be an inverse H&S low/reversal formation which comes in at 1.0990; sustained gains through here would point to the USD rallying to the mid 1.13s in the next 3 months or so."

"We remain bullish on the near-term outlook for the USD and target a rally to 1.1050; sustained, short-term gains in funds would suggest building risks of an extended run higher in funds moving into 2015 (formally, we target 1.15 in Q1)."

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: Wholesale sales grow less than expected in June

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Canadian Wholesale Sales data released by Statistics Canada today shows 0.6% growth in June, compared with the May 2.3% rise. Market consensus pointed to a 1.3% increase.

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY finds resistance at 103.40

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Extending gains into a third consecutive day, the USD/JPY broke above 103.00 and printed fresh 4-month highs amid broad dollar strength ahead of the FOMC minutes.

The USD/JPY climbed to its highest level since early April at 103.39 as the dollar continued to build on yesterday’s housing data-inspired gains. However, the USD/JPY found resistance at the 103.40 zone and pulled back slightly to currently trade around 103.20, recording a 0.29% gain Wednesday.

Market attention now turns to the FOMC minutes release scheduled for 18:00 GMT for clues of the Federal Reserve next steps.

USD/JPY levels to watch

If the USD/JPY manages to break above 103.40, next resistances could be found at 103.75 (Mar 7 high), 104.00 (psychological level) and 104.12 (Apr 4 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 102.88 (Aug 20 low), 102.51 (Aug 19 low) and 102.24 (Aug 18 low).

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

FOMC minutes to support a stronger USD - Scotiabank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, strategist at Scotiabank, commented that the Fed minutes are the focus and expected to support a stronger USD as it will refocus markets on diverging interest rate paths.

Key Quotes

"The Fed minutes are expected to showcase the more hawkish stance of both non‐voting members like Bullard and Lacker and voting members like Plosser and Fisher. Accordingly, the risk is that the focus on the timing of normalization to begin sooner rather than later".

"In addition, the minutes might provide further clues as to the exit plan; but a full reveal of this is more likely to be delivered directly from Chair Yellen".

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Merkel: Europe needs to work on construction flaws

FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at an economic event in Lindau, Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel stressed that to definitively overcome the debt crisis in Europe, EU Member States should tighten their cooperation further.

She called for improving the construction of the EU and for making the Eurozone banking system more transparent. She also suggested G20 countries should tighten shadow banking rules.

Furthermore, Merkel stressed that sustainability is the main principle of the German government's decisions on fiscal policy. She pointed to the demographic challenge in Germany as one of the most important to deal with currently in order not to overburden future generations.

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Aug 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD potential downside to 0.82 – ANZ

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sam Tuck, ANZ Research, expects the pair to head towards 0.82.

Key Quotes

"Recent events continue to affirm our 24 July trade recommendation to sell NZD/USD targeting 0.82."

"Dairy prices have stabilised, but prices have flattened, implying downside risks remain."

"Political risks mean the election is not the fait accompli it once was."

"ANZ monthly inflation gauge validates markets move to reducing probabilities for RBNZ action."

'USD developments remain positive in line with ANZ’s ahead of consensus FOMC March lift off call."

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Aug 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Yellen could address financial bubble concern at Jackson Hole - John Kicklighter Yellen could address financial bubble concern at Jackson Hole - John Kicklighter

FXStreet (Łódź) - John Kicklighter, Senior Currency Strategist for FXCM in New York suggests in an interview for FXStreet that Fed head Janet Yellen could speak about the financial bubble woes at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday.

Key quotes

"The Fed Chair has made a concerted effort to maintain a dovish leaning status quo through both the FOMC policy meetings and her own press conference outings."

"From her perspective, inspiring confidence in the markets is critical."

"The central bank is trying to keep interest rates down to support growth, acclimatize the market to a future where normalization will have to take place and attempt to curb a financial bubble."

"The rate focus has been consistent and the preparation of a withdrawal of stimulus has grown consistent over the past six months."

"The financial bubble concern has only recently found its way into the commentary."

"And yet, it can pose a serious problem to the entire effort. I would not be surprised to see the most substantial new ground broken on this topic."

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Aug 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD dips to lows around 1.0950

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now losing the grip vs. its neighbour, dragging the USD/CAD to fresh lows in the boundaries of 1.0950.

USD/CAD softer after US docket

The selling pressure has accelerated around the USD despite Initial Claims came in a tad better than estimates, dropping to 298K in the week ended on August 15th vs. 300K forecasted and 312K from the previous week. Next of relevance will be the manufacturing PMI tracked by Markit, Existing Home Sales and the Philly Fed manufacturing survey. “Technically, short-term price action is turning a little heavy as our session gets underway but we think the 1.0950/60 area should provide support for USDCAD near-term; the underlying bull trend in funds continues to strengthen and that should limit downside corrective potential for the moment. Below 1.0950 may see the low 1.09s retested but no more”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategy at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.0950 facing the next support at 1.0899 (high Aug.18) ahead of 1.0870 (200-d MA) and finally 1.0861 (low Aug.15). On the upside, a breakout of 1.0986 (high Aug.6) would open the door to1.1007 (high May 2) and then 1.1053 (high Apr.23).

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Aug 21, 2014

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