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USD/CHF completes 60-pip decline to 0.9040

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CHF is extending its decline from 0.9100 area and following the US retail sales, the pair fell to 0.9040 where the USD found some buying interest. Now it is at 0.9055.

The USD/CHF is joining its negative correlation with the EUR/USD as the unique currency jumped to trade above 1.3400 level just after weaker than expected data.

Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9056, down 0.23% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9100 and low at 0.9040. USD/CHF spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/CHF levels

If the pair holds above 0.9040, next resistances would 0.9070 and 0.9100. On the downside, pair will face supports at 0.9040, 0.9030 and 0.9015.

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Aug 13, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE's August Inflation Report resolutely dovish - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Richard Kelly and Jacqui Douglas, TD Securities economists believe that the BoE August Inflation report today conveys MPC's reluctance to hike rates in the nearest future.

Key quotes

"The August Inflation Report was resolutely dovish when it came to handicapping odds of a 2014 hike, but did suggest more conviction on broader recovery and scope to start tightening next year."

"BoE suggests spare capacity higher than expected and lowered GDP and inflation forecasts."

"We remain comfortable with our forecast for the first hike to come in February 2015, if anything the odds shift slightly later, rather than sooner, and the tone today suggests we may have had no dissent to hike in August."

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Aug 13, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Poland Net Inflation: 0.4% (July) vs previous 1%

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Aug 14, 2014

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United States Export Price Index (MoM) above forecasts (-0.2%) in July: Actual (0%)

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Aug 14, 2014

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United States Initial Jobless Claims up to 311K in August 8 from previous 289K

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Aug 14, 2014

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United States Export Price Index (YoY) climbed from previous 0.2% to 0.8% in July

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD clings to gains after US data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD trades near daily highs above 0.9300, holding onto gains and extending its recovery into a third consecutive day, despite a quick, short-lived drop seen after a series of US data.

US initial jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 311,000 in the week ending August 9, versus 295,000 expected. Meanwhile, import price index fell 0.2% in July versus a 0.4% drop forecasted.

The pair fall to a session low of 0.9299 but quickly bounced after the latest string of US data. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 1-week highs around 0.9320, recording a 0.19% gain on the day.

The AUD/USD is taking advantage of broad-based greenback weakness and extending its recovery from multi-week lows scored last Friday at the 0.9240 zone.

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD reacts to the upside after data; 1.3400 on focus

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro is currently trading higher against the US Dollar as the pair reacted positive following the import and export price indexes and jobless claims in the US.

The EUR/USD jumped around 20 pips from 1.3370 to trade at 1.3390 as the pair is attempting to test the 1.3400 level again. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3386, up 0.17% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3397 and low at 1.3348. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

Jobless claims rises to 311K in Aug 8 week; highest since June. Export prices remained unchanged in July from June while import prices declined 0.2% versus 0.4% drop expected.

EUR/USD sentiment

"To my mind," comments Jamie Coleman from FXBeat, "the fact that the rallies are falling short of important technical levels like 1.3445 and 1.3480/1.3500 suggest that the market remains bearish overall."

Coleman affirms that "it feels to me like the market is getting into better balance, with shorts being pared back, but without rising very far."

Next resistance is 1.3395 ahead of 1.3400, then 1.3415 is the frontier. On he downside, support are at 1.3370, 1.3350 and 1.3335.

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD muted post-data

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback remained mostly apathetic after the US docket on Thursday, with the USD/CAD meandering just below 1.0900 the figure.

USD/CAD down from 1.0920

The pair continues to correct lower from recent peaks in the vicinity of the key handle at 1.1000, retreating for the fourth consecutive session so far. The only relevant release today in the US economy, Initial Claims, came in a tad higher at 311K in the week ending on August 8th, vs. 290K in the previous week. Canadian New Housing Price index advanced 1.5% in a year to June, matching May’s reading. “The recent consolidation around 1.0920/90 is clearly at an inflection point and, although we remain USDCAD bulls, it is hard to hold a strong conviction for pair either side of 1.09 in the short term”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD significant levels

As of writing the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.0894 and a breakdown of 1.0864 (200-d MA) would expose 1.0856 (21-d MA) and finally 1.0808 (Kijun Sen). On the other hand, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.0941 (high Aug.13) ahead of 1.0954 (high Aug.12) and then 1.0986 (high Aug.6).

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD recovers ground but remains vulnerable

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD managed to bounce from fresh 4-month lows and erased intraday gains as the dollar weakens across the board amid falling US yields.

However, the pound follows the greenback among the worst performers Thursday, as the British currency continues to suffer on the back of BoE dovish shift. The GBP/USD has been unable to regain the 1.6700 psychological level, and it is currently trading at 1.6690, virtually unchanged on Thursday.

GBP/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.6700 (psychological level), 1.6755 (Aug 12 low) and 1.6799/1.6800 (10-day SMA/psychological level).

On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.6656 (200-day SMA/Aug 14 low) and the 1.6602/00 area (Apr 8 low/psychological level)

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD recovers ground but remains vulnerable

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD managed to bounce from fresh 4-month lows and erased intraday gains as the dollar weakens across the board amid falling US yields.

However, the pound follows the greenback among the worst performers Thursday, as the British currency continues to suffer on the back of BoE dovish shift. The GBP/USD has been unable to regain the 1.6700 psychological level, and it is currently trading at 1.6690, virtually unchanged on Thursday.

GBP/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.6700 (psychological level), 1.6755 (Aug 12 low) and 1.6799/1.6800 (10-day SMA/psychological level).

On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.6656 (200-day SMA/Aug 14 low) and the 1.6602/00 area (Apr 8 low/psychological level)

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Dollar lower across the board - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that the dollar remains weak on Thursday, falling after the rise in US jobless claims.

Key quotes

"The EUR/USD trades near its daily high of 1.3403, and with the hourly chart showing price advancing above its moving averages while indicators head north in positive territory, supporting the upward strength."

"In the 4 hours chart price advances above its 20 SMA that remains flat around 1.3370, while momentum grinds higher above its midline, supporting the shorter term view."

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD fresh lows likely before recovery - Scotiabank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, strategist at Scotiabank, said they expect the GBP/USD to eventually recover and retrace some of its weakness, but in the near-term fresh lows are likely.

Key Quotes

“GBP is weak, having dropped to a fresh multi‐month low and flirting with its 200‐day MA at 1.6664. The market is still adjusting to yesterday’s less hawkish BoE comments leaving GBP notably weak on all its crosses”.

“Profit taking on long GBP positions has been an ongoing trend over the last several weeks (CFTC data suggest that the peak gross long was mid‐June); while the options markets have been pricing for the risk of GBP downside since early July”.

“We expect GBP to eventually recover and retrace some of its weakness; however for the near‐term we are likely to see fresh lows first”.

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Aug 14, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY jumps to 10-day highs at 102.70

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/JPY advanced 20 pips post-US data from 102.55 area to break above 102.60 and to trade at highs since August 5 at 102.73.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.67, up 0.21% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.73 and low at 102.44. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

PPI rose 0.1% MoM during July; +1.7% YoY. NY empire state manufacturing index declined more than expected to 14.69 in July; lowest since April.

USD/JPY levels

In terms of options expiring in the NY cut, there are orders at 101.80/85 ($200 mln), 102.00 ($100 mln), 102.25 ($100 mln), 102.50 ($150 mln), 103.00, ($220 mln) and 103.50 ($455 mln) as FXBeat informed earlier in the day.

If the pair broke above the 102.70 area, it will fce resistances at 102.80 and 103.00. On the downside, 102.60 becomes as the first support ahead of 102.45 and 102.30.

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook.

Key quotes

"The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical."

"While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention."

"In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual."

"At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook.

Key quotes

"The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical."

"While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention."

"In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual."

"At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook.

Key quotes

"The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical."

"While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention."

"In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual."

"At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook.

Key quotes

"The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical."

"While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention."

"In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual."

"At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Jackson Hole outcome not expected to signal delay in Fed tightening - TD Securities

FXStreet (Łódź) - Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities believes that the outcome of the Jackson Hole conference, which kicks off on Thursday next week, will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side in terms of the Fed monetary policy outlook.

Key quotes

"The theme of this year’s conference is 're-evaluating labour market dynamics,' an area that has raised a lot of questions for central bankers lately. For the US, the big question is whether the drop in the participation rate is structural or cyclical."

"While Yellen has always leaned toward the latter, any research placing more weight on the structural explanation and suggesting that the Fed needs to start tightening policy sooner rather than later could certainly get some market attention."

"In the UK in particular, there’s an ongoing discussion around why wage growth has been so slow to pick up while the unemployment rate has been tumbling, and there may be some debate around whether this type of scenario is going to be the new normal for some developed economies, or whether the lags are just longer than usual."

"At the end of the day, we think that the outcome will be tilted slightly toward the hawkish side, with nothing coming from Jackson Hole to suggest that the Fed needs to put off the beginning of tightening any more than markets are already expecting."

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD steady in the lows for week

FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6687, up 0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6703 and low at 1.6677.

GBP/USD is steady in the lows for the week and as analysts at Rabobank noted, if there is was one take-away from the Inflation Report this week is that there is no real pressure on the BoE to hike rates until wages push higher. “It is difficult to argue this point. We would therefore suggest that the message from the Bank is fairly clear. That said, evaluating the outlook for wage changes could yet be contentious. The lack of wage inflation has surprised most economists this year and, in light of the fairly rapid drop in the unemployment rate, no doubt there will be some forecasters expecting wage growth to accelerate in the near–term. In fact the minutes of the July policy meeting concede that “some survey indicators of wage growth has already picked up materially”.

GBP/USD hourly levels

Spot is presently trading at 1.6688, and next resistance can be seen at 1.6690 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.6699 (Yesterday's High), 1.6703 (Daily High), 1.6704 (Daily Classic R1) and 1.6723 (Daily Classic R2). Support below can be found at 1.6686 (Weekly Classic S2) and 1.6680 (Daily Classic PP).

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US stocks falls amid tensions in Ukraine

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Equities in Wall Street started the day with gains but following reports about an escalation of tensions Ukraine turned sharply to the downside. European markets also suffered and erased gains in the last hours of trade.

The FTSE 100 finished slightly higher, with a gain of 0.06% at 6,689 far from 6,740 (daily high) while the Dax lost 1.43% and the Cac 40 declined 0.75%. In The US, the Dow Jones was falling 0.55% while the S&P 500 was down 0.37%.

The US dollar was mixed in the currency market where the Swiss Franc was rising. On a volatile day, gold was trading above $1,300 after falling to $1,293 while crude oil was rising more than 1%, trading near $97.00 a barrel.

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD consolidating while on the offer sub key 1.6825

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Equities in Wall Street started the day with gains but following reports about an escalation of tensions Ukraine turned sharply to the downside. European markets also suffered and erased gains in the last hours of trade.

The FTSE 100 finished slightly higher, with a gain of 0.06% at 6,689 far from 6,740 (daily high) while the Dax lost 1.43% and the Cac 40 declined 0.75%. In The US, the Dow Jones was falling 0.55% while the S&P 500 was down 0.37%.

The US dollar was mixed in the currency market where the Swiss Franc was rising. On a volatile day, gold was trading above $1,300 after falling to $1,293 while crude oil was rising more than 1%, trading near $97.00 a barrel.

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Aug 15, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Refugee convoy in Ukraine suffers missile attack

FXStreet (Łódź) - Tensions is Ukraine do not subside at the beginning of the week, with the Ukrainian military reporting that a refugee bus convoy has been struck by a missile. The attack, which took place close to the city of Luhansk, has most probably been carried out by Russian separatists, although their leader denies the accusations.

Andriy Lysenko, spokesman for Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said that nine Ukrainian troops have been killed in clashes with separatists over the last 24 hours. He stressed that Russia amassed 45000 troops on the border with Ukraine.

The talks on the situation in Ukraine held between foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France on Sunday failed to bring an agreement on a ceasefire.

"Our Ukrainian counterparts, unfortunately, continue setting conditions - and rather vague ones at that - including, as they say, the establishment of an impenetrable border," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said.

Nevertheless, he informed that an agreement between Russia, Ukraine and the Red Cross was struck on the issue of the controversial Russian aid convoy to Ukraine.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been invited to hold talks on the Ukraine situation in Kiev on Saturday.

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Session Recap: USD little changed ahead of key events this week

FXStreet (Córdoba) - A quiet European session to start the week, with the USD broadly unchanged within familiar ranges, as investors remain sidelined ahead of big events this week.

The calendar is pretty light for today but data flow picks up tomorrow with the US releasing housing and inflation data. Then Wednesday the Fed will publish last meeting’s minutes and finally the Federal Reserve's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole is scheduled for Friday.

The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3380 but bounced to the 1.3400 area afterwards. The GBP/USD started the week a tad higher and consolidates around 1.6730 after comments from BoE Governor Carney over the weekend. The USD/JPY edged higher to the 102.40 zone on easing geopolitical concerns. Currencies linked to commodities were broadly unchanged.

In Europe, stocks were posting big gains, with regional indexes around 1% up, underpinned by better risk sentiment. Gold was down 0.2% at $1,303 an ounce while crude oil lost nearly 1.0% to $96.37 a barrel.

Main Headlines in Europe:

What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

European stocks open with sharp gains as concerns ease

Fed minutes and Jackson Hole Symposium US highlights this week - BNZ

EMU: Trade surplus n.s.a. widens against forecasts in June

Barclays: All eyes on Jackson Hole - eFXnews

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Aug 18, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Yellen unlikely to support the greenback – BTMU

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, expects the USD to weaken in the very short term.

Key Quotes

"Fed Chair Yellen’s speech unlikely to support US dollar The foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable in the Asian trading session. After strengthening modestly in July, the US dollar has since stabilized so far in August with the dollar index failing to break decisively above resistance at around the 81.50 level."

"The US dollar has lost upward momentum alongside the fall back in US yields which has been partially offset by lower yields outside of the US as well. The two-year US Treasury bond yield has declined sharply from a peak of 0.58% at the end of July to 0.41% at the end of last week."

"The main focus in the week ahead from the US will be a keynote speech from Fed Chair Yellen on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. The title of the speech is “Labour Markets” which is one of Fed Chair Yellen’s specialist subjects."

"We do not expect the speech to signal a shift in the Fed’ s monetary policy stance and is more likely to explore in more detail their views on the labour market from their last monetary policy meeting at the end of July. The Fed signalled at their last meeting that labour market conditions have improved. However, a range of labour market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labour resources."

"Fed Chair Yellen is also viewed as being at the more dovish spectrum of the Fed especially with regards to the amount of slack still in the labour market. As such Fed Chair Yellen’s speech is unlikely to prove supportive for the US dollar in the near-term signalling that there is still plenty time before the Fed needs to begin tightening monetary policy despite strengthening labour market conditions."

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Aug 18, 2014

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