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EUR/USD grinds lower on weak EMU Services PMI - FXStreet



FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the EUR/USD fell on Tuesday to 1.3380 following the release of the disappointing Eurozone PMI services numbers.


Key quotes


"Technically, failure to advance beyond the 23.6% retracement of the 1.3639/1.3366 daily fall has helped discouraging buyers."


"The hourly chart presents a strong bearish tone, as indicators continue heading south despite in oversold levels, while price stands now below its moving averages."


"In the 4 hours chart technical readings also present a bearish stance, with 1.3366 this year low coming as immediate support in route to 1.3295."






Aug 05, 2014

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USD/JPY extends gains to 102.90 after a brief rejection



FXStreet (San Francisco) - After breaking 102.70 level and testing daily highs at 102.75, the USD/JPY found selling interest that sent the pair to 102.65; however the pair recovered the mood and now it is extending gains to 102.90.


Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.87, up 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.94 and low at 102.46. USD/JPY spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.


USD/JPY levels


The pair is now focused into 103.00, that works as next resistance ahead of 103.10 and 103.40. On the downside, 102.70, 102.60 and 102.40 are supports.






Aug 05, 2014

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GBP/USD falls on Moody's downgrading the outlook for UK's banking system - FXStreet



FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the rally in GBP/USD to 1.6888 seen in the European morning, on better than expected UK data, was reversed by Moody's announcement of changing the outlook for UK's banking system from stable to negative.


Key quotes


"The pair gave back most of its intraday gains, with the hourly chart showing price struggling around its 20 SMA and indicators heading lower, approaching their midlines."


"In the 4 hours chart indicators corrected oversold readings, but now retrace from their midlines, while price halted a couple pips below the 23.6% retracement of the latest bearish run, suggesting upward potential is limited."






Aug 05, 2014

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USD/CHF hits fresh 6-month highs



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF rose further after Wall Street opening bell and climbed to 0.9110, reaching levels not seen since January 23, slightly above last week highs. Afterwards pulled back and currently is hovering around 0.9100, up 0.37% for the day.


Greenback is among the best performers across the board, after rallying in the last hours following better-than-expected US economic data.


USD/CHF levels to consider


To the upside, immediate resistance lies at 0.9110 (daily high) and above here at 0.9125/30 and 0.9155 (January highs). To the downside, support might be located at 0.9070/75 and below at 0.9050/55.






Aug 05, 2014

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US: Trade deficit (Jun) shrunk to $41.54 billion



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that the trade deficit shrunk to $41.54 billion during June from $44.66 billion in the previous month (revised). The print however exceeded the median at $44.70 billion.






Aug 06, 2014

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EUR/GBP edges higher but lacks momentum



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP edged a tad higher following the UK GDP estimation release, but remained well within today’s range and off the highs scored earlier during the European session.


The latest recovery attempt was capped by the 0.7945 zone sending the EUR/GBP back to the 0.7920 zone before resuming the climb driven by GDP data. UK economy grew 0.6% in the 3 months to July, according to NIESR estimation.


EUR/GBP technical levels


At time of writing, the EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7940, 0.25% above its opening price, with immediate resistances seen at 0.7944 (Aug 6 high) and 0.7965 (Aug 5 high), while supports line up at 0.7915/3 (Aug 6 & Jul 31 lows) and 0.7900 (psychological level).






Aug 06, 2014

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GBP/USD: holds short-term negative perspective - Scotiabank



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank notes that the GBP/USD holds short-term bearish perspective, although she warns uncertainty over the GBP outlook is building.


Key Quotes


“GBP is essentially flat as the BoE left all policy measures on hold, with interest rates at 0.5%. Next week’s Inflation Report (August 13th) will provide clarity on how the BoE’s views are unfolding and is a major hurdle for GBP, followed by the release of today’s minutes on August 20th”.


“GBP/USD short‐term technicals: bearish ‐ however the test down to 1.6786 that we expected is proving a challenge with the European session warning of building uncertainty over the outlook for GBP”.








Aug 07, 2014

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BoE's August Inflation Report expected to provide details on rate hike timing - RBS



FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS suggests that BoE's BoE's August Inflation Report, due out on Wednesday, should contain guidance on the possible timing of the first rate hike.


Key quotes


"It is time to get 'back to basics' by providing a clearer, less convoluted form of policy signaling via a renewed focus on the CPI central projection."


"The key inputs into the August forecast – trends in GDP, inflation, market interest rates, the exchange rate, oil prices – suggest a largely unaltered CPI central projection (ie, a 5-10bp undershoot at the 2-3 year horizon)."


"This is our central case and would nudge the risks towards February 2015 for the first rate hike, while any rise in the CPI projection (and certainly any overshoot of the target) would suggest the first hike is coming in November 2014."







Aug 08, 2014

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Morgan Stanley staying short EUR/USD - eFXnews



FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that Morgan Stanley remains bullish on the USD following the recent string of better than expected US data.


Key quotes


"Barring the safe-haven flows supporting US fixed income currently, money market normalization in the US has begun, in our view."


"'FOMC voting member Fisher’s comments point to an increasing debate within the Fed about bringing forward the first rate hike – we expect US front-end yields to normalize, MS projects'."


"US data have been strong across the board and now the missing piece for more hawkish Fed policy is higher wages. Wages have stayed at a muted 2% YoY level, which is too low for the Fed given its 2% inflation target."


"'Markets will stay tuned, with inflation indicators staying particularly in focus ,' MS argues."


"MS maintains a short EUR/USD position in its strategic portfolio from 1.3620 with a profit-stop at 1.35, and a target at 1.31."


"As a short-term recommendation, MS enters a fresh short today from 1.34, with a stop at 1.3460, and a target at 1.31."


'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'







Aug 08, 2014

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Wall Street up, USD down



FXStreet (Córdoba) - US equities are rising modestly on Friday while European markets finished lower. In Wall Street the Dow Jones was up 0.40% and the Nasdaq 0.16%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 lost 0.46% while the Dax retreated 0.33%. On the positive side, the FTSE MIB gained 0.33% and the Ibex 35 rose 0.26%.


Among currencies, the Euro and the Swiss Franc are rising across the board while the Pound is plunging. The US dollar is little change versus the Aussie and the Kiwi, while the Canadian dollar dropped following employment data from Canada.


Crude oil and gold are flat. The yellow metal pulled back after hitting fresh highs above $1,320 and was trading at $1,313 while the barrel holds around $93.75.







Aug 08, 2014

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GBP/USD testing the bulls commitment’s



FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6773, down -0.35% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6836 and low at 1.6767.


GBP/USD continues to slide and analyst at HSBC suggested that the USD is the next currency getting ready for lift-off. “We are getting to the point where tapering is coming to an end and uncertainty is replacing certainty. This should lead to increased speculation regarding US rate rises”. From a technical point of view, Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained, "GBP/USD short‐term technicals: bearish—all signals point to downside risk and today’s ability of spot to fall to a fresh two‐month low warns of building downside momentum. Support lies at 1.6800; while resistance lies at the 100‐day MA at 1.6875."


GBP/USD Levels


With spot trading at 1.6774, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.6798 (Daily Classic S2), 1.6808 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.6822 and 1.6822. Support below can be found at 1.6774 (Daily Classic S3), 1.6767 (Daily Low), 1.6756 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.6690 (Weekly Classic S2) and 1.6645 (Daily 200 SMA).







Aug 08, 2014

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EUR/JPY rebounds sharply from 8-month lows



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY reversed dramatically and turned to the upside. During the Asian session fell to 135.70 hitting the lowest price since November 2013 but then recovered ground and rose back above 136.00.


On European hours continued moving to the upside and recently spiked higher, climbing to 136.85. Price remains near daily highs ahead of the end of the week, up 45 pips for the day.


The EUR/JPY is erasing yesterday's losses and is gaining ground for the first time in a week, but still down for where it was seven days ago. With the recent recovery the pair has been able to avoid the lowest weekly close in 8-months.







Aug 08, 2014

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China in focus and of great interest – BAML



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch noted events around China of which have been of great interest in markets of late.


Key Quotes


"China economic data have been closely watched by market participants, as investors try to explain changes in the data, and, more importantly, extrapolate the implications for asset prices. In this piece, we explore the long-term relationship between rates and economic activities. We summarize our conclusions below."


"1. The front-end of the curve (2y NDIRS) leads most economic activities (especially financing activities) by one to two quarters. Changes in front-end rates Granger cause changes in economic activities."


"This means when the PBOC eases, activity tends to recover with a one or two quarter lag, and vice versa. In contrast, the belly of the curve (5y NDIRS) does not seem to correlate closely with economic activities."


"2. The back-end of the curve (10y CGB) moves with the CPI in the same direction, but does not correlate strongly with other economic variables as most people have thought. Expectations on the front-end also matter to the back-end."


"3. The curve slope (2s5s) exhibits a strong positive correlation with economic activities, with no meaningful lead or lag. This suggests 2s5s NDIRS should continue to steepen alongside better growth momentum, which our economist predicts."







Aug 08, 2014

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EUR/JPY falls after weak ZEW



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/JPY came under pressure and dropped to fresh daily lows after ZEW surveys for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole came in lower than expected.


German August ZEW economic sentiment index tumbled to 8.6 vs 18.1 forecast while current conditions slid to 44.3 vs 55.5 forecast and 61.8 previous. The euro fell across the board after data, which declines was blamed on geopolitical tensions.


The EUR/JPY has fallen to a 2-day low of 136.43 so far and giving no signs to overcome the selling pressure for now.


EUR/JPY supports and resistances


As for technical levels, immediate supports are now seen at 136.14 (Aug 6 low), 136.00 (psychological level) and 135.72 (Aug 8 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 136.88 (Aug 12 high), 137.00/01 (psychological level/Aug 11 high) and 137.23 (Aug 6 high).






Aug 12, 2014

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GBP traders anxious ahead of BoE Quarterly Inflation Report release - FXStreet



FXStreet (Łódź) - Economist and Lead European Editor Pablo Piovano points out that tension is rising among GBP traders ahead of the release of BoE's Quarterly Inflation Report due out on Wednesday.


Key quotes


"Traders will look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike, and investors will scrutinize anything in connection with that ‘slack’ that prevent the BoE to be the first of the G4 central banks to hike rates."


"In the meantime, waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging Cable from multi-year peaks in levels just shy of 1.7200 the figure to this week’s lows in levels last seen in early June, around the mid-1.6700s."


"The renewed USD strength has been collaborating with the downside as well, bolstered by a firmer momentum in the US economy."


"Levels-wise, the initial hurdle remains 1.6800 ahead of August top at 1.6890; the interim support lines up at 1.6750 followed by June low at 1.6698."






Aug 12, 2014

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GBP/USD: Will the BoE make any difference? - FXStreet



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Pablo Piovano, editor at FXStreet, commented that waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging GBP/USD from multi-year peaks to levels sub-1.6800. In this line, tomorrow's Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE will take special attention as investors look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike.


Key Quotes


“In light of tomorrow’s Quarterly Inflation Report by the BoE, traders will look for any clue regarding the timing of the rate hike, and investors will scrutinize anything in connection with that ‘slack’ that prevent the BoE to be the first of the G4 central banks to hike rates”.


“In the meantime, waning expectations of a rate hike plus speculative positioning keep taking a toll on the sterling, dragging Cable from multi-year peaks in levels just shy of 1.7200 the figure to this week’s lows in levels last seen in early June, around the mid-1.6700s”.


“The renewed USD strength has been collaborating with the downside as well, bolstered by a firmer momentum in the US economy”.


“Levels-wise, the initial hurdle remains 1.6800 ahead of August top at 1.6890; the interim support lines up at 1.6750 followed by June low at 1.6698”.






Aug 12, 2014

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NZD/USD trims losses after hitting 2-month lows




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD fell sharply during the Asian session and bottomed at 0.8406, reaching the lowest price since June 4 afterwards rebounded and trimmed losses.


Currently trades at 0.8437, down 0.25% for the day. The recovery from the lows found resistance at 0.8440. Price was able to rise back above previous lows, avoiding so far a daily close at the lowest level since March.


NZD/USD levels to consider


To the downside, the key support area is located around 0.8400/10; and below here support might lie at 0.8380 and then 0.8345. To the upside, resistance is seen at 0.8440 (intraday level) and above here at 0.8455 followed by 0.8475 (August 11 high).






Aug 12, 2014

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Geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment – Danske Bank






FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Pernille Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, signaled the situation en Ukraine continues to be a critical factor for markets’ sentiment.


Key Quotes


“Yesterday most equities declined as uncertainty about Ukraine returned after Russia sent 280 trucks carrying what it said was humanitarian aid for eastern Ukraine”.


“Kiev said any unilateral attempt to deliver aid would be viewed as an act of aggression”.


“The risk sentiment was affected by a new decline in the German ZEW expectations”.


“Despite the recent weakness in data, Bundesbank President Weidmann said yesterday that the central bank sticks more or less to its forecast (GDP of 1.9% in 2014 and 2% in 2015)”.







Aug 13, 2014

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EUR/USD jumps to 1.3400 post US retail sales






FXStreet (San Francisco) - the Euro accelerates its gains versus the US Dollar as the pair reacted positive after the weaker than expected US retail sales data.


The EUR/USD jumped around 50 pips post data to trade above the 1.3400 area and price t daily highs around 1.3405. US dollar is trading under pressure as data, unchanged in July, was below 0.2% rise expected by market.


Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3398, up 0.22% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3407 and low at 1.3342. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.


EUR/USD sentiment


"Small offers are seen at 1.3495/00 but another batch of stops are seen just above that level. If triggered, the familiar 1.3430/50 zone becomes the next battle ground," Jamie Coleman from FXBeat comments. "A move through that area should prompt a test of the downtrend at 1.3480."







Aug 13, 2014

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Adjustments to CPI projections the highlight of BoE's August Inflation Report - RBS






FXStreet (Łódź) - The RBS team of analysts believe that the most important takeaway from the BoE August Inflation Report was the fact that the MPC lowered the inflation forecast at 2-year point (1.77% from 1.89%) and barely altered at 3-year point (1.96% vs 1.95%).


Key quotes


"So a slightly larger undershoot over the policy-sensitive 2-3 year forecast period as a whole, but an essentially unchanged/at-target forecast at 3-years."


"There was no change to the (neutral) skew of the forecast."


"Overall, this gives the Report a marginally dovish feel. "


"At any rate, had the MPC been materially closer to raising Bank Rate then we would have expected a higher CPI projection."


"A high degree of uncertainty surrounds the timing of the first hike but we feel marginally more confident about our forecast for the first Bank Rate rise to come in February 2015 than we had done prior to the August Report."







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