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NZD/USD chugging along the on the downside




FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is trading at 0.8541, down -0.16% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8559 and low at 0.8538.


We are starting-off very quiet, commencing from where we left off after that dramatic fall from above the 0.87 handle last week that leaves NZD/USD here “chugging” along on the downside. Without anything

NZD/USD is trading at 0.8541, down -0.16% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8559 and low at 0.8538.


We are starting-off very quiet, commencing from where we left off after that dramatic fall from above the 0.87 handle last week that leaves NZD/USD here “chugging” along on the downside. Without anything on the calendar until the US opens, it is likely to remain quiet until then, albeit not with anything there particularly key either. However, as the week goes on then the more crowded the US calendar becomes and we may be in for a volatile time. In the mean time for NZD/USD, FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. Daily RSI is in neutral territory at 33.18.

NZD/USD Levels

Spot is presently trading at 0.8541, and next resistance can be seen at 0.8553 (Daily Open) and 0.8559 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.8532 (Daily Classic S1), 0.8510 (Daily Classic S2) and 0.8488 (Weekly Classic S1).

">on the calendar until the US opens, it is likely to remain quiet until then, albeit not with anything there particularly key either. However, as the week goes on then the more crowded the US calendar becomes and we may be in for a volatile time. In the mean time for NZD/USD, FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. Daily RSI is in neutral territory at 33.18.


NZD/USD Levels


Spot is presently trading at 0.8541, and next resistance can be seen at 0.8553 (Daily Open) and 0.8559 (Daily High). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.8532 (Daily Classic S1), 0.8510 (Daily Classic S2) and 0.8488 (Weekly Classic S1).








July 28, 2014

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Leveraged funds increase EUR bearish bets - ANZ




FXStreet (Bali) - Khoon Goh, Senior FX Strategist at ANZ, reviews the latest changes in the CFTC specs positioning for the week ending 22 July 2014, noting that leveraged funds increased their bearish bets against the EUR.


Key Quotes


"Leveraged funds increased their bearish bets against the EUR by 19k contracts (worth USD3.1bn), bringing their total net short position to 68.2k (USD11.5bn). This is the largest short position since November 2012. It is notable that this large shift comes after five weeks of relatively stable positioning, indicating renewed bearishness on the euro’s outlook."


"Of course, the more bearish view on the EUR could also reflect a more positive outlook on the USD. Net short positions against the greenback have been reduced by USD3.0bn to USD0.5bn."


"For the second consecutive week, yen saw the largest net buying, further reducing overall JPY net short positions by 8.5k contracts (worth USD1.0bn) to 45.2k (worth USD5.6bn). However, the shifts in positioning have once again failed to elicit a move in USD/JPY, which continues to trade within a tight range."


"Net long positions in GBP have been reduced for the fourth consecutive week. This is possibly an indication that leverage funds see limited scope for further gains in sterling, and are actively unwinding their net long exposure, which still remains large at 102.6k contracts worth USD10.9bn."


"Positioning in NZD was reduced slightly ahead of the RBNZ decision on 24 July. The sharp decline in the NZD following the RBNZ decision suggests a sharp unwinding of long positions occurred. There were only minor changes to AUD positioning, which was reflected in the AUD/USD’s movements during that period."


"Net long non-commercial position in gold rose by 6.5k contracts to 166.7k. Net long positioning in WTI crude oil fell by 9.9k contracts to 390k. This is the fourth consecutive weekly decline in oil positioning since it reached historic highs in late June."








July 28, 2014

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Lower milk price to highlight ‘unjustified’ NZD - BNZ




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Stephen Toplis, Head of Research at BNZ explained that Fonterra is expected to announce its dividend intentions by Thursday.


Key Quotes:


“This is a grand opportunity for the dairy giant to also revise its milk price forecast for the 2014/15 season. Any milk price change will receive attention, especially with very little else on the local calendar”.


“While both the dividend and milk price forecast are of interest, it is the latter that carries more macroeconomic importance”.


“Indeed, it is the NZD’s resilience to the likes of the dairy (and log) price declines that was very much likely part of the reason why the RBNZ labelled the level of the NZD ‘unjustified’ at last week’s OCR announcement”.


“With words like that it has got the market abuzz with intervention chatter”.


“It will certainly put more attention on Wednesday’s Reserve Bank figures that will show how many NZ dollars the bank bought or sold, on net, even if the data are a bit dated being for the month of June”.









July 28, 2014

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Scope for sustained EUR/AUD bounce limited - TDS




FXStreet (Bali) - According to the FX Team at TD Securities, scope for any sustained EUR rebound against the Aussie appears to be limited.


Key Quotes


"The underlying trend lower in EURAUD remains strongly entrenched in the market, suggesting that in an environment of broader USD appreciation, the EUR is likely to under-perform."


"The cross has rebounded modestly through the latter part of the week but, with the DMI oscillator reflecting an intense trend lower unfolding across a range of time frames, we rather think that scope for any sustained EUR rebound is limited."


"With the EUR slipping and holding below the base of the June/July consolidation channel (bear flag), we continue to look for a drop to the 1.39 area."


"We also think the early June low at 1.4364 will help slow EURAUD rebounds near-term. Look to sell modest rallies."








July 28, 2014

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Kiwi resumes its stone-like flight



FXStreet (Moscow) - NZD/USD started Monday with the gap higher at 0.8551 after closing at 0.8536 on Friday, but the upside was not sustained and the pair dipped to current level of 0.8541.


Is kiwi doomed?


NZD/USD finished the second deeply bearish week in a row, which is a gloomy sign for the longer-term kiwi perspective. But strictly speaking, weekly technical picture has not turned completely bearish yet, as the series of rising bottoms is not broken. It means that kiwi bulls might try to seize the power and drive NZD/USD at least to 0.8675 resistance are. This development would be regarded as a healthy correction from deeply oversold levels, but further upside is questionable as some kiwi bearish factors might come into play any time soon. Risk sentiments, RBNZ verbal interventions and milk prices - just to name a few. On the intraday basis NZD/USD might return to Friday’s low at 0.8536, where new buying interest is likely to limit further downside, while the upside might be limited by 0.8550.


What price levels and patterns have to be considered?


Current price is 0.8536, with resistance ahead at 0.8538 (Yesterday's Low), 0.8553 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.8553 (Daily Open), 0.8555 (Monthly Low) and 0.8555 (Weekly Low).


Support below can be found at 0.8533 (Daily Low), 0.8532 (Daily Classic S1), 0.8510 (Daily Classic S2), 0.8488 (Weekly Classic S1) and 0.8481 (Daily Classic S3).


Regarding candlestick formations, we can see Dark Cloud Cover formation on the 4-hour .








July 28, 2014

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US economy posted strong GDP in Q2 - BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, underlined the solid data from US GDP in the second quarter.


Key Quotes


"The report revealed that the US economy rebounded more strongly than expected after the sharp contraction in Q1 providing further reassurance that it was only a temporary slowdown. Real GDP expanded by a robust annualized rate of 4.0% in Q2 which was boosted by a large inventory build adding 1.66 percentage points."


"The underlying pace of growth firmed with personal consumption growth accelerating to an annualized rate of 2.5% and capital investment expanding by an annualized rate of 7.0%. There were also upward revisions to growth in the previous three quarters revealing that economic growth was stronger over the past year."


"As a result of the revisions and despite the temporary economic contraction in Q1, real GDP expanded on average by annual rate of 2.4% over the last twelve months accelerating from an expansion of 2.0% in the previous twelve months. The report reinforces our view that the US dollar will likely continue to strengthen in the year ahead alongside the strengthening US economy. The release yesterday of the latest ADP survey also revealed that employment growth likely remained robust in July remaining consistent with non-farm employment increasing in line with its’ average over the last six months of around 230kjobs/month."








July 31, 2014

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USD Strength Hurting the Canadian Dollar - ForexTrading.TV



FXStreet (Łódź) - Nick Jordan, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, observes that the strength of the greenback has been hurting the Canadian dollar and wonders if we will see the 1.10 level shortly.









July 31, 2014

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EUR/USD falls to 1.3370 after US Data



FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro broke below the 1.3380 support against the US dollar and now it is testing the 1.3370 following US jobless claims and employment cost index data.


Employment cost index advances 0.7% in Q2; biggest rise since Q2 2011; on the other hand, initial jobless claims rose to 302K new claims in the Jul 25 week while previous week was revised down to 279K from 284K.


Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3395, down 0.10% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3416 and low at 1.3367. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.


EUR/USD sentiment


"So far we've been down to 1.3372, near the 1.3368 lows posted a bit over 24 hours ago," comments Jamie Coleman from FXBeat. "US yields continue to rise, up another 5 bp this morning to 2.605%. 1.3350 barriers are the next hurdle for EUR/USD."








July 31, 2014

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USD/CAD climbs to 1.0930



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD gained further impulse on Thursday following the release of the US and Canadian dockets, briefly lifting the USD/CAD to session peaks near 1.0930.


USD/CAD firmer despite US releases


After hitting multi-week tops in the vicinity of 1.0930, spot is now returning to the comfort zone around 1.0920/15, following mixed data from the US economy: Initial Claims increased to 302K in the week ended on July 25th vs. estimates at 301K, while the Employment Cost index rose above forecasts 0.7% during the second quarter. On the other hand, the Canadian economy expanded at a monthly pace of 0.4% in May, surpassing both estimates and April’s print. “USDCAD still trades ‘rich’ relative to its current main drivers, but despite that ‘richness’, we can highlight three reasons for the upward bias in the pair: long USD positioning is adjusting upwards to align with rate differentials and market sentiment, AUD and CAD are moving lower to catch up with currencies like EUR, NZD, NOK and SEK which have been weaker for longer, and the main drivers of USDCAD may be migrating towards interest rate differentials which are very much in the USDs favour”, assessed Stephen Gallo, European Head FX Strategy at BMO.


USD/CAD levels to consider


As of writing the pair is up 0.12% at 1.0916 and a breakout of 1.0949 (50% of 1.1279-1.0620) would aim for 1.0962 (high Jun.5) and then 1.1007 (high May 2). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 1.0900 (low Jul.31) ahead of 1.0850 (low Jul.30) and finally 1.0840 (200-d MA).







July 31, 2014

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What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is seeing a recovery attempt to the 1.3400 handle today, despite the softer tone from the final manufacturing PMIs in Euroland and ahead of July’s Payrolls.


“We are waiting for a rebound to reinstate shorts and are not willing to chase this lower as momentum indicators remain in oversold territory. Nonetheless following the demise of the 2 month uptrend we remain in sell the rally mode, and a negative bias will remain entrenched below the 1.3535 2 month downtrend”, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.


In addition, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank, suggested, “Note that the pair has leaked below 1.3400 this week and a sweater may be in order for EUR bulls as the balance of risks emanating from the US/EZ headline flow (ECB meeting next Thursday) may continue to guide the pair towards the 1.3300 neighborhood in the coming sessions”.







Aug 01, 2014

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USD/JPY is closer to 103.00 every coming minute



FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY slid to 102.50 area after reaching 102.72 session high.


Not a knockout yet


The pair got a knockdown from the Non-Farm Payroll data, but not a knockout meaning the comeback above 103.00 area is still a possibility especially given quite interesting events calendar for the week ahead. We must say, there are practically no first-tier fundamental releases except for ISM report, but the still going on earnings season, and the behavior of stocks and credit market may help to settle above 103.00 area again.


What are today’s key USD/JPY levels?


Today's central pivot point can be found at 102.67, with support below at 102.29, 101.96 and 101.58 with resistance above at 103.00, 103.38, and 103.71. Hourly Moving Averages are bullish, with the 200SMA bullish at 102.07 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 101.96. Hourly RSI is bearish at 47.






Aug 04, 2014

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Stock markets collapse as predicted- ForexTrading.TV



FXStreet (Łódź) - Nick Jordan, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, comments on SP 500's break lower, in the steps of European markets.






Aug 04, 2014

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Morgan Stanley: EUR/USD year-end forecast at 1.31 - eFXnews



FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that Morgan Stanley sees EUR/USD standing at 1.31 at the end of 2014 and the downward move continuing in 2015 towards 1.24.


Key quotes


"'Indeed, we believe relationships established over the past two years between the EUR and financial markets have already started to break down, leaving the EUR exposed to the underlying bearish fundamentals,' MS argues."


"'Private investor flows into peripheral bonds, equity markets, and central bank diversification will be declining sources of support for the EUR in our view. The increased potential for currency hedging of European assets in an environment of rising volatility is another EUR negative,' MS adds."


"In line with this view, MS maintains a short EUR/USD position in its medium-term portfolio from 1.3620, with a revised profit-stop at 1.35, and a target at 1.31."


"Short-term, MS looks to use any EUR/USD rebounds to add short positions via a limit order at 1.3480, with a stop at 1.3580, and a target at 1.31."


'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'






Aug 05, 2014

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USD/CAD loses around 4.00% of face value in less than a month - ForexTrading.TV



FXStreet (Łódź) - Nicole Elliott, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, observes that the USD/CAD has lost around 4.00% of face value in less than a month.






Aug 05, 2014

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EUR/USD offered near 1.3380



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling interest remains alive around the single currency on Tuesday, dragging the EUR/USD to a test of recent lows around 1.3380.


EUR/USD focus on US docket


The euro has reacted adversely after the mixed results from Services PMIs in the euro bloc, with sellers stepping in to fade the recent spike to levels around 1.3440/50. Next of note will be US Factory Orders (0.6% exp.) and the ISM Non manufacturing for the month of July (56.3 exp.). In the view of Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, “The combination of ongoing downside pressure on inflation, weak confidence, disappointing PMIs and the negative impact of falling trade with Russia are likely to keep a relatively cautious tone at the ECB and support EUR downside”.


EUR/USD relevant levels


As of writing the pair is losing 0.27% at 1.3385 with the next support at 1.3366 (2014 low Jul.30) followed by 1.3359 (low Nov.12 2013) and then 1.3345 (low Nov.11 2013). On the other hand, a break above 1.3425 (high Aug.25) would target 1.3433 (high Aug.4) en route to 1.3445 (high Aug.1).






Aug 05, 2014

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