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EU ready to impose further sanctions on Russia

FXStreet (Łódź) - In the recent developments regarding the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines plane in Ukraine, UK PM David Cameron declared that the EU was prepared to impose further sanctions on Russia, which on Sunday he accused of contributing to the tragedy through its support for the separatists militants.

The sanctions could include an export ban on defense equipment and also focus on advanced industrial goods which might have dual use for defense purposes, Cameron said.

He also called for halting the flow of troops and weapons from Russia into Ukraine and for Moscow to withdraw all its support for the separatists. EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss the situation.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that Russian president Vladimir Putin would hold a meeting with the Security Council on “safeguarding of sovereignty and territorial integrity” later today.

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July 21, 2014

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USD/CAD consolidates in the mid-1.0700 area

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD has barely moved Monday and has spent most of the day consolidating within a narrow range, following price swings seen Friday.

With no much ahead in terms of economic data, the pair might extend its consolidation phase during the American hours as investors refrain from taking big positions. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0745, 0.14% above its opening price.

USD/CAD technical outlook

"For today, we see minor resistance developing in the mid 1.07 area as our session gets underway, which may mean another look at support in the low 1.07 area but we think scope for CAD gains is limited at this point", said the TD Securities team. "We look for firm support on minor weakness to the 1.0710/15 area… USD/CAD trading above 1.0750 should see 1.0800/15 retested".

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July 21, 2014

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Portugal Current Account Balance: €-1.225B (May) vs previous €-0.816B

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July 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD finds support at 0.9370

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie's decline from the 0.9400 area against the US Dollar was supported at 0.9370 where the AUD/USD found buying interest as it bounced back to 0.9380.

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9379, down 0.17% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9402 and low at 0.9371. AUD/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish.

AUD/USD sentiment

"Range 0.9400-0.9370 Struggled to crack 0.9400 in Asia and gave up the ghost as Europe stepped up and sold it back to 0.9370," comments Matt Bacon-Hall from FXBeat. "RBA Governor Stevens and his willing deputy Debelle speak tomorrow. Lets hope they give the market something."

If the pair breaks below the 0.9370, next supports are at 0.9355 and 0.9330. On the upside, resistances re at 0.9380, 0.9400 and 0.9410.

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July 21, 2014

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IMF hikes German growth forecast

FXStreet (Łódź) - In its annual assessment of the German economy the International Monetary Fund raised the country's 2014 and 2015 GDP forecasts to 1.9% from 1.7% and to 1.7% from 1.6%, respectively.

Inflation was seen accelerating to 1.1% next year and to 1.4% in 2015.

The IMF stressed however that the growth outlook remained subdued, in the face of weak global growth, uncertain energy costs and demographic changes . It urged GErmany to step up efforts to reduce the current account surplus.

It advised a cautious implementation of the national minimum wage and added that investing another 0.5% of GDP wouldn't be a violation of fiscal rules.

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July 21, 2014

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Banco Espírito Santo likely an isolated case - Przemysław Kwiecień

FXStreet (Łódź) - In an interview for FXStreet, Financial analyst at XTB Poland Przemysław Kwiecień commented on the troubles of Portugal's Banco Espírito Santo saying that it is most probably an isolated case and it shouldn't damage the Eurozone recovery.

Key qotes

"It matters because it takes place not long before the ECB overtakes the supervision over the most of the EMU banking sector."

"Under circumstances of low growth and high scrutiny banks are unwilling to expand their credit action briskly to disappointment of the ECB."

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July 21, 2014

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EUR/USD trading steady close to 1.3520 - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that following the light spike to 1.3548 with the opening, EUR/USD fell again, trading steady in the 1.3520 price zone at the beginning of the US session.

Key quotes

"Stocks are down in Europe along with US futures, which favors some safe havens, but US yields are also giving up ground, which should keep dollar gain limited."

"For the most, the EUR/USD still looks heavy considering it trades a handful of pips above the year low of 1.3476, but the short term outlook remains neutral, with the hourly chart showing price below a flat 20 SMA and indicators horizontal in neutral territory. "

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July 21, 2014

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EUR/GBP stretches to fresh daily highs

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP edged higher and printed a marginal new high for the day as the pound weakened slightly at the beginning of the New York session.

The EUR/GBP stretched to a high of 0.7926 but lacked follow-through as interest begins to fade with the warm weather. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7923, 0.11% above its opening price.

EUR/GBP technical levels

In terms of technical levels, the EUR/GBP could find next resistances at 0.7932 (Jul 18 high), 0.7955 (21-day SMA) and 0.7980 (Jul 15 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.7903/00 (Jul 18 low/psychological level), 0.7888 (2014 low Jul 17) and 0.7855 (Aug 21 2012 low).

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July 21, 2014

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USD/JPY bulls have a go at 101.50 resistance

FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/JPY opened at 101.39 in Asia and climbed to 101.47 though medium offers on approach to 101.50 hold USD bulls back.

Range for a change

European players helped USD/JPY to reverse some Asian losses and even to finish the day in the green zone. There were few meaningful catalysts on Monday, so the movement is regarded as technically induced. The support of 101.20 seems to be pretty strong and more broadband USD weakness is needed to crack it. Japanese leading indicators might shed some light on the economic outlooks, but they are unlikely to move the markets gripped by geopolitical fears. Later during the day US consumer prices will be in focus. No change of pricing pressure is expected, though any sighs of inflation growing faster might lead to adjustments of first rate hike timing forecasts.

What are today’s key USD/JPY levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 101.33, with support below at 101.25, 101.11 and 101.03 with resistance above at 101.48, 101.56, and 101.70. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA neutral at 101.46 and the daily 20EMA bearish at 101.61. Hourly RSI is bullish at 58.

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July 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY is trying to settle above 137.00

FXStreet (Moscow) - EUR/JPY took off from 137.09 at the opening and moved to 137.24, deeper to the bullish territory

EUR/JPY is stuck

Has EUR/JPY bottomed out at 136.69, or its just a short respite before a rush to new multi-month lows? The answer to this question is elusive. But there are several observations to be considered. First, the cross cannot close above 137.00 pivot, which is definitely bears despite lack of bearish momentum. EUR/JPY is strongly influenced by overall JPY dynamics and, consequently, risk sentiments that have turned sour lately. On the other side of the equation is potential EUR rebound against USD that may drag EUR/JPY higher. Anyway, we need to see the cross clearly above 137.00 on daily basis to hope for further upside.

What are today’s key EUR/JPY levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 137.06, with support below at 136.94, 136.76 and 136.64, with resistance above at 137.24, 137.36, and 137.54. Hourly Moving Averages are bearish with the 200SMA bearish at 137.70 and the daily 20EMA bearish at 138.05. Hourly RSI is bullish at 58.

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July 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair is confined to a narrow range at the beginning of the week, hovering over the low 1.3500s area against a backdrop of scarce volatility and lack of data releases in Euroland.

“EUR/USD has seen a slight erosion of the 2 year uptrend, this week at 1.3525. It is sitting just above the 1.3476 2014 low and beyond a small rebound we look for this to be eroded. Failure here will trigger losses to the 1.3426 200 week ma en route to the 1.3295 November 2013 low”, observed Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

Furthermore, FX Strategist Emmanuel Ng at OCBC Bank added, “Potential further EU sanctions on Russia may keep the EUR-USD somewhat on edge in the near term while we also note the note the Bundesbank’s cautionary comments on Germany’s 2Q GDP numbers. We continue to see inherent risks of a test towards 1.3500 ahead of 1.3475 in the interim while 1.3600 should serve as a useful resistance level for now”.

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July 22, 2014

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USD/CHF ignored weak Swiss Trade data, but ready to rise

FXStreet (Moscow) - USD/CHF opened the day at 0.8977, edged higher to 0.8987, and looks ready to continue the move up.

The game of contrasts

The pair is in deep consolidation and only really interesting developments during American session may take the pair out of the tight range. The just released weaker than expected Swiss Trade Data failed to trigger any significant moves in the pair. The scheduled for release CPI and housing data may support the view the US economy is gathering pace in its recovery opposite to the euro zone showing some signs of contraction again. If so, the Swissy may come under pressure with initial target at 0.9001 resistance.

What are today’s key USD/CHF levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 0.8981 with support below at 0.8970, 0.8961 and 0.8950, with resistance above at 0.8990, 0.9001, and 0.9010. Hourly Moving Averages are largely bullish, with the 200SMA bullish at 0.8951 and the daily 20EMA bullish at 0.8946. Hourly RSI is bullish at 53.

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July 22, 2014

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Improvement in UK public sector finances is painfully slow - ING

FXStreet (Łódź) - James Knightley from ING observes that despite the pickup in growth and thriving labor and property markets in the UK, public sector finances are still in poor condition.

Key quotes

"The fiscal year to date (only April and May admittedly) saw the government borrow £2bn more than it did in the same period last year with government receipts down £3.2bn while expenditure was only lower by £1bn.

"Today should show a modest improvement, but it is unlikely to alter the story significantly."

"Part of the disappointment relates to the fact that the cut in the top rate of tax from 50% to 45% last year meant that some high earners (and their employers) delayed bonus payments and other forms of income to take advantage of the lower tax rate."

"Stamp duty receipts have also disappointed and coincide with a sharp drop in mortgage approvals following the introduction of the Mortgage Market Review in April."

"That said, there are improvements in other areas. VAT receipts are up 5.7%, which presumably reflects stronger consumer spending while corporation tax receipts are up 9.3%."

"We believe that the tax revenue figures will improve though given the strength of job creation and the anticipation that wages will eventually start to pick-up – note the national minimum wage will increase 3% in October."

"However, we are not confident on a quick turnaround given the history of disappointment while there is some concern that growing talk of Bank of England rate hikes may make households and businesses a little more cautious, which could hurt VAT and stamp duty receipts."

"This suggests that government spending will continue to be kept on a tight leash while the prospect of a significant preelection inducement to the electorate is looking less and less likely."

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July 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUDUSD downside bias through for .9330 and key .9322 - MarketChartist

FXStreet (Łódź) - Steve Miley, FX analyst at MarketChartist suggests that AUDUSD remains in a negative range theme whilst below .9410/15.

Key quotes

"A roll back lower to the range and we restate the view that 'the threat is back to .9330 and growing risk for a break below key .9322'."

"The previous setback from .9455 leaves a defensive bias to the narrow .9330-.9410/15 range from last week within the broader .9455-.9322 range."

"With the recent rebound capped at .9410/15 and given prior support violations through .9360 and .9340, we still see a defensive bias and Head & Shoulders top risk."

"Downside: Below .9322 sees a better top and bearish shift to target at .9258, 9230 and maybe the key .9208/00 area."

"Upside: Above .9455 aims through the .9505 cycle high to retrace and chart targets at .9525/45."

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July 22, 2014

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BoE's Carney: As UK economy normalizes, rates will have to start to rise

FXStreet (Łódź) - In his speech at the Commonwealth Games Business Conference in Glasgow, BoE head Mark Carney said that the UK economy was normalizing but that the central bank didn't have any "preset course" toward higher interest rates, as the timing of the first hike would be determined by the data.

The governor added that once rates started rising, the process would be "gradual and limited," but that wouldn't happen until real wages began growing consistently.

“The economy is finally producing as much as it did on the eve of the crisis in 2008, and inflation is back near its 2% target," Carney pointed out. “A key judgment for the Monetary Policy Committee is when and to what extent these developments will translate into real wage growth, and in turn that wage growth into price pressures.”

He emphasized that spare capacity being used up faster than expected.

Carney also remarked that the strength of the pound over the past year was one of the headwinds facing the economy. He added that rising housing prices could result in an increase of mortgage debt taken on by households and that "if a lot of people are highly indebted, that could tip the economy into recession.”

Moreover, Carney Carney suggested that the UK should diversify trade away from slow-growing developed markets such as Europe to the Commonwealth and emerging markets.

During Carney's speech the pound fell from 1.7050 to 1.7030 and then sat in the middle at 1.7040

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July 23, 2014

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Lithuania's Eurozone accession officially approved

FXStreet (Łódź) - European finance ministers have officially backed Lithuania's accession to the Eurozone, beginning with January 1, 2015.

ECB executive board member Peter Praet, also present in Brussels, stressed that the newest euro area member should pursue appropriate policies to prevent economic imbalances.

He reminded that three of Lithuania's largest banks' balance sheets were being reviewed by the ECB as part of the central bank's comprehensive assessment of the Eurozone banking system.

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July 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY maintains the range

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY managed to trim intraday losses after bottoming out at 101.30 during the European session, although it continues to trade in negative ground for the day.

The USD/JPY is correcting lower after the upside was capped by the 21-day SMA following 3 consecutive days of gains. However, the subsequent dip was contained by the1 01.30 area, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 101.35, still 0.10% below its opening price.

USD/JPY technical levels

In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate supports at 101.19 (Jul 21 low), 101.08/05 (Jul 18 & 10 lows) and 100.81(May 21 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 101.60 (Jul 22 high), 101.78 (Jul 16 high) and 101.93 (200-day SMA).

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July 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD: near-term test of 1.3380 expected - Scotiabank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank noted that there is ongoing downside pressure on EUR and they expect EUR/USD to test 1.3380 in the near term.

Key Quotes

“EUR is weak, flat since yesterday’s close, but having broken below its recent range and the February lows”.

“Downside pressure has also built on EUR crosses, with EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/CAD and EUR/AUD all having dropped to fresh lows in the last 24 hours”.

“Building on yesterday’s comment, we see this build as suggesting there is ongoing downside pressure on EUR, which is likely to pull it lower still”.

“News flow has been quiet, with no fundamental releases except for mixed second tier data from France. We look for a near-term test of 1.3380”.

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July 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD bounces at 1.0710; back to 1.0730

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CAD tested the 1.0710 key level post Canadian retail sales data but the pair bounced there and now it is trading back around 1.0730.

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0726, down 0.11% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0744 and low at 1.0709. USD/CAD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/CAD levels

If the pair manages to break above 1.0725, next resistances are at 1.0760 and 1.0790. On the donwside, supports are at 1.0710, 1.0690 and 1.0625.

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July 23, 2014

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EUR/USD consolidating its latest losses - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the EUR/USD is consolidating its latest losses , trading in a tight 20 pips range below former year low of 1.3476, level that capped the upside so far today.

Key quotes

"With no fundamental data to lead the way, EU consumer confidence and US crude stocks may bring some action later today, albeit seems we are going nowhere far."

"Technically, the bearish bias remains favored with price hovering around a bearish 20 SMA and indicators turning lower around their midlines."

"In the 4 hours chart technical readings also favor the downside, with a break below 1.3440/50 area required to confirm a new leg down."

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July 23, 2014

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European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence registered at -8.4, below expectations (-7.5) in July

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July 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD tests 1.3470 post EU consumer confidence

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro is trading slightly higher against the US Dollar following the worst than expected EU consumer confidence in July.

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3469, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3475 and low at 1.3455. EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

The EU consumer confidence declined to -8.4 pts in Juy from -7.5 pts in June. Worst than expected

EUR/USD levels

If the pair manages to break 1.3470, it would find resistances at 1.3490 and 1.3500. On the downside, supports are at 1.3460, 1.3450 and 1.3400.

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July 23, 2014

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Barclays: BoE expected to raise rates in Q4 - eFXnews

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that following the release of BoE minutes today Philippe Gudin and Fabrice Montagne from Barclays Capital see the MPC hiking rates in the last quarter of 2014.

Key quotes

"The UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to keep monetary policy on hold at its July meeting, with Bank Rate unchanged at 0.50% and the stock of asset purchases maintained at £375bn."

"Members of the MPC had an extensive discussion about the margin of spare capacities, especially in the labour market, and continued to hold a wide range of views about the degree of slack in the UK economy, which is likely to be the main focus of the August Inflation Report."

"We continue to expect the first increase in Bank Rate to take place in the fourth quarter of this year."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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July 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR making new lows for the month - BBH

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the EUR has been making new marginal lows for this month and looked else where to other G10’s.

Key Quotes

"EUR/USD is trading at levels not seen since November 2013".

“Elsewhere, EUR/JPY is breaking a key retracement level from the 2013-2014 rise near 136.75 and points to a test of the November 2013 low near 131.20."

"EUR/JPY has yet to break below the February low near 136.25. EUR/USD already has broken below its February low and so the move is being led by this pair, it seems".

"USD/JPY remains stuck in its recent narrow ranges."

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July 23, 2014

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USD/JPY holding on 101.50

FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading at 101.54, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 101.57 and low at 101.47.

USD/JPY spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, all the while we are still unchanged with the Tokyo open and trade data already posted. However, in the 4 hours chart, as noted by Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained, “Indicators head higher in positive territory, yet chances of an advance are subdue to a break above mentioned resistance”.

USD/JPY Levels

Spot is presently trading at 101.54, and next resistance can be seen at 101.56 (Yesterday's High), 101.60 (Daily 20 SMA) and 101.67 (Weekly High). Next support to the downside can be found at 101.47 (Daily Low) and 101.40 ahead of 101.20.

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July 24, 2014

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