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GBP/USD closing London in mid 1.71 handle





FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.7149, down -0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.7181 and low at 1.7131.


GBP/USD was taken out in mid point London after posting the high for the year 1.7181. It is settled in at and around 1.7150 as we approach London closing which leaves the long term and committed bulls in for action next week and room for those who cashed in to re-enter if their sights are still set on the psychological 1.72 handle. The main risk events ahead for the pair will be the FOMC minutes and then the BoE next week. Looking to a daily chart, we see that RSI is neutral at 71.82.


GBP/USD Levels


With spot trading at 1.7150, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.7151 (Hourly 20 EMA), 1.7155 (Daily Open), 1.7166 (Monthly High), (Weekly High) and (Annual High). Support below can be found at 1.7142 (Daily Classic PP), 1.7141 (Hourly 100 SMA), 1.7131 (Daily Low), 1.7114 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.7114(Weekly Classic R2).







July 04, 2014

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ECB watching exchnage rate with "great attention"- BBH





FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the euro has shed a big figure against the dollar this week after it failed to establish a foothold above the 1.3700.


Key Quotes:


"There were no substantial near-term policy developments from the ECB yesterday. The focus was on the announcements of lengthening the time between meetings to six weeks and the eventual release of minutes from the meetings. Last month Draghi was understood to say that interest rate policy had been exhausted, but today he seemed to backtrack a bit."


"He said that a technical adjustment could not be ruled out. It is not clear what this means, but it could be a cut in the corridor by bringing the marginal lending rate down."


"On the exchange rate, Draghi shed little fresh light. It is not a policy target, but it is an important input into inflation."


"He did seem a bit frustrated with the euro's resilience despite the rate cuts and other measures. He said he was watching the exchange rate with "great attention.""







July 04, 2014

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EUR/USD year end target 1.3000 - BAML





FXStreet (Guatemala) - Team BAML explained that their forecast for EUR/USD at year end is 1.30, a move of less than 5%.


Key Quotes


" This seems eminently achievable (25% of FX forecasters agree), but options imply only a 10% probability that it will occur."


"This probability seems very low yet by most measures the options are fair or even expensive so how can this be? This simple example illustrates how extreme low volatility creates a disconnect between perception and pricing of what constitutes a tail event."


"This phenomenon is particularly pronounced for currencies because they are a low volatility asset class. Currencies are not historically close to equilibrium levels, so that the size of adjustments that a tail event would produce should be at least comparable to prior instances. Subdued global inflation suggests that a tail event is unlikely, but almost by definition tail events always seem unlikely, so how can we prepare in the most cost efficient manner?"







July 04, 2014

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BoE in the limelight this week - Investec



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, underlines the relevance of the MPC meeting ahead in the week.


Key Quotes


"Very little out on the data front today so it’s likely the market will continue to be driven by the result of Thursday’s impressive payroll figures. However, the main event of the week will be when the Monetary Policy Committee makes its July announcement at midday on Thursday."


"This will be the first MPC meeting since Mark Carney’s Mansion House speech, when the BoE Governor warned that interest rates could rise sooner than markets were expecting. However the motivation behind the statement is likely to have been to warn markets of a general trend, not an imminent event".


"Accordingly policy looks set to be held steady again for now, with the Bank rate on hold at 0.5% and the stock of asset purchases at £375bn."







July 07, 2014

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No additional easing expected from the BoJ this week - RBS



FXStreet (Łódź) - The RBS team of analysts believe that the results of the June BoJ Tankan Survey, released last week, point to no action from the BoJ at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday.


Key quotes


"While large manufacturer sentiment D.I., the headline value, fell by more than our expectation to +12 points in the June BoJ Tankan Survey (+17 points in the previous survey), the value for the outlook improved in line with our estimate and the content was reasonable, in our view."


"The BoJ expressed considerable confidence in achieving the price target by the middle

of the outlook period through FY16."


"The latest Tankan Survey confirms that the overall economy continues to run at a robust pace considering the absence of a sharp drop in employment and production and operational equipment D.I. values, despite encountering a demand setback from the consumption tax hike."


"We expect the BoJ to sustain its assessment that 'the economy’s macro supply-demand balance continues to tighten' in light of the Tankan Survey results because it directly estimates and assesses a supply-demand balance for the utilisation of employment and economic capital."


"We hence think that the BoJ will retain its bullish price outlook even without relying on a

more complicated trend of an 'upward shift' by or 'steepening' of the Phillips curve

presenting the average relationship between the macro supply-demand balance and

inflation rate."








July 07, 2014

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Dijsselbloem urges Greece to step up work on its bailout program



FXStreet (Łódź) - Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem urged Greece today at the monthly meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers in Brussels to make more efforts to meet the bailout program requirements.


Dijsselbloem stressed that Eurozone Member States should continue implementing structural reforms, not only promising to do that. The European Commission would assess the reforms' effectiveness, he added.


Furthermore, the Eurogroup chief expressed his optimism about the outcome of EU bank stress tests.








July 07, 2014

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EUR/USD treading water near 1.3600



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is looking to consolidate the recent bounce off session lows, taking the EUR/USD back to the vicinity of 1.3600 the figure as markets enter the US session.


EUR/USD poised to remain sidelined?


With the recent Payrolls numbers still hovering over markets and no relevant releases in both the euro area and the US until Wednesday, where the FOMC minutes are due, expectations for volatility in the pair remain pretty flat. In the view of analysts at Westpac Global Strategy Group, “Multi-month, EUR weakness should be driven by: 1) less supportive flow dynamics as signalled by the region’s shrinking basic balance surplus; and 2) near certain prospects for relatively faster growth in the ECB’s balance sheet vs the Fed, especially later this year as TLRTO comes into play. Draghi’s reference to EUR1 trillion in the latter prevented a break of 1.37 so the sell zone may now be the mid-1.36s”.


EUR/USD levels to watch


As of writing the pair is retreating 0.01% at 1.3592 and a breakdown of 1.3576 (low Jun.26) would open the door to 1.3574 (low Jun.23) and then 1.3565 (low Jun.20). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.3611 (high Jul.4) followed by 1.3664 (high Jul.3) and finally 1.3677 (200-d MA).








July 07, 2014

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EUR/USD mixed signals – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank noted that the EUR comes with mixed signals.


Key Quotes:


"EUR/USD short‐term technicals: mixed—EUR buy signals have faded and sell signals are beginning to form”.


“We expect EUR to trade within a broad range, loosely defined as 1.35 to 1.37 for the near‐term."









July 07, 2014

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EUR/GBP heading for 0.78 region - Rabobank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that even though recent comments from ECB hawk Weidmann warned about risks to financial stability from keeping monetary policy too loose, he made clear that he was fully on board with the measures announced by the committee last month.


“He remarked that “the point is to prevent a phase of inflation that is too low for too long, as this could cripple the economy in the Eurozone””.


“Although to date, the dovish sentiments from ECB officials have had limited effect on undermining the value of the EUR, as the market becomes increasingly confident in its assessment of the divergence of the policy outlooks between the ECB and other central banks, a reaction is likely to be played out in the EUR crosses”.


“We see scope for EUR/GBP to end the year in the 0.78 region and to continue heading lower into 2015 towards the 0.77 level on a 12 mth view”.








July 07, 2014

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US stocks decline after holiday



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Stocks finished lower in Europe and are falling in Wall Street at the beginning of the week. A decline in german industrial output weight on European stocks. The FTSE 100 lost 0.62% while the Dax fell 1.03%. The worst among European indexed was France’s Cac 40 that dropped 1.41%.


Trading resumed in Wall Street after Friday’s holiday. Main indexes are falling as speculation about when the Federal Reserve will move rates increases, particularly ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes. The Dow Jones is losing 0.35%, holding slightly above the 17,000 mark while the Nasdaq losses 0.73% and the S&P 500 drop 0.48%.


As US stocks are pulling back from record highs, gold and crude oil are also falling. The yellow metal trades at $1,317/oz, down 0.25% while the barrel is losing 0.60% at $103.40.








July 07, 2014

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Impervious to better US data? - WIB



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporation ABN put the question out there of, “Delayed reaction or are financial markets simply impervious to better US data?”


Key Quote:


“Last week's strong NFP outcome makes it five in a row of 200k+ outcomes, yet US yields and the US$ remain in well rehearsed ranges”.








July 07, 2014

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BoE and rate outlook for Q2 2015 - Rabobank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank noted that there is already a lot of good news priced into the pound.


Key Quotes:


“UK data releases from the third quarter of last year have revealed far more momentum behind the UK economic recovery than almost anyone had expected. This has culminated in widespread expectations that the BoE will be the second developed world central bank to hike rates this cycle, after the RBNZ. The latest survey from Reuters reveals that half of respondents now expect the first hike in the initial quarter of next year, with a decent minority looking for a move late this year”.


“Only a few weeks ago, the market consensus for the first BoE rate hike stood at Q2 2015, but confidence in this view was rattled by the remarks of BoE Governor Carney at the Mansion House on June 12. Carney commented that he was surprised by the relatively low probability that the market was attaching to the likelihood of a hike in the bank rate this year; the market consensus duly shifted”.


“The outlook for BoE rates, however, is not clear cut. As Carney remarked later in June, wage inflation in the UK remains surprising low. This would appear to suggest that there is more spare capacity in the labour market than the aggressive fall in the unemployment rate would suggest”.


“Not only is wage inflation still subdued but UK CPI inflation at 1.5% y/y is well below the BoE’s 2.0% target. Disinflation is a common theme across Europe currently and sterling strength will be contributing to downward pressure on UK import prices. For this reason we have left our forecast for the first BoE rate hike of the cycle at Q2 2015, at least for the time being. Not so many months ago, we were more hawkish than the market consensus, now we find ourselves in the dovish camp”.








July 07, 2014

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ECB's Constancio: Strictness of stress tests not only about results



FXStreet (Łódź) - Vice-President of the ECB Vítor Constâncio commented on the details of Eurozone bank stress tests, released by the central bank on Thursday, saying that their strictness was not only about the results, as they have already prompted many lenders to raise new capital.


“Banks know what we expect and have advance notice to prepare for the outcome of the comprehensive assessment,” the ECB policymaker said in a statement. “Much work has already been undertaken to repair banks’ balance sheets and, encouragingly, this work is continuing.”


Constâncio admitted that some of the financial institutions would fail the stress tests but that there shouldn't be too many of them. He also added that the current strength of the euro reflected the improvement in market sentiment.


"The upcoming stress tests have the potential to create some large volatility," Ryan Littlestone speculates on ForexLive. "Bad news and the euro plummets, good news and it rockets."







July 17, 2014

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EUR/USD finds support at 1.3520



FXStreet (San Francisco) - The EUR/USD reacted to the upside following the better than expected jobless claims in US as the pair is trading slightly bullish at 1.3530 after supporting the 1.3520.


Earlier in the day, the EUR/USD peaked to 1.3540 where the pair found selling interest and it was launched down to test the 1.3520. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3531, up 0.04% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3541 and low at 1.3521.


EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish.


EUR/USD sentiment


"EUR/USD is seeing some light short-covering, now at 1.3530. A sustained move through 1.3540 is needed to make the weak shorts sweat," comments Jamie Coleman from FXBeat. "A move above 1.3580 is needed to make them puke."


To the upside, resistances are seen at 1.3540, 1.3560 and 1.3570. Supports are at 1.3520, 1.3500 and 1.3510.








July 17, 2014

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GBP/USD struggling around 1.7100



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD has extended its decline below the 1.7100 psychological level at the beginning of the American session as the USD benefits from decline in risk appetite.


The GBP/USD dipped to a low of 1.7093 but bears lacked determination to take the GBP lower. A series of mixed US data barely affected the pair that continued to hover around 1.7100. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.7105, 0.17% below its opening price.


US housing starts fell 9.3% in June, while consensus was looking for a small uptick. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims dropped to 302K last week, beating the 310K expected.


GBP/USD levels to watch


In terms of technical levels,on the downside next supports could be found at 1.7073 (23.6% Fibo of 1.6692-1.7190) and 1.7058 (Jul 15 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.7190 (2014 high Jul 15) and 1.7200 (psychological level).







July 17, 2014

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GBPJPY sees successful rejection from Fibonacci retracement 61.8% - ForexTrading.TV



FXStreet (Łódź) - Petar Jacimovic, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV, observes that GBPJPY is experiencing a successful rejection from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.







July 17, 2014

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Aussie strengthens against the dollar - FXStreet



As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes, AUD/USD has moved above 0.9370 and is approaching the 0.9400 level.


Key quotes


"The hourly chart shows indicators heading higher above their midlines and 20 SMA acting as dynamic support currently near strong static support of 0.9370."


"In the 4 hours chart a mild bullish tone is also present, with indicators aiming to cross their midlines to the upside and price above moving averages. "







July 17, 2014

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Risk aversion increasing in the global markets - BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, remarks sentiment around safe havens are building up.


Key Quotes


"Financial markets have been unsettled by the upturn in geopolitical risks after the downing of a civilian airplane over Eastern Ukraine and after Israel began a ground-offensive operation in Gaza. The VIX index jumped a huge 32% to close at 14.54, crude oil was up 2% while the price of gold increased 1.5%."


"With the EU and US sanctions being digested by the markets yesterday, USD/RUB jumped 2.2%. However, outside of the rouble move, the foreign exchange market remains remarkably stable."


"One-month USD/JPY implied volatility is currently at 4.89%, up from 4.45% on Wednesday, which was another record low. Volatility in EUR/USD and other major currency pairs remains subdued as well."


"In part we think this is explained by the latest downturn in UST bond yields in the US – the 10-year yield fell to 2.44% yesterday, matching the low from May, a level not seen since May last year. The 10-year yield is down 20bps since early July."


"Higher yields in the US is going to be the key catalyst for increased volatility in the foreign exchange market as investors eye greater divergence with other major economies and general risk appetite conditions become less favourable. These latest developments, it is believed, make it more likely that all central banks will remain on the same page for longer, thus limiting the risk of any major change in financial market developments."






July 18, 2014

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EUR/USD at levels not seen since last February - FXStreet



FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that EUR/USD is moving close to levels handful only several pips away from the critical 1.3476 year low.


Key quotes


"The EUR/USD finally moved away from the 30 pips range that contained price for most of the week, with the hourly chart showing an increased bearish potential as per price accelerating below its 20 SMA and the 4 hours chart showing indicators resuming the downside after repeated failure around 1.3535 static resistance."


"Immediate support comes at 1.3476, this year low, and a large amount of stops should stand below so if trigger, the slide may quickly extend. "





July 18, 2014

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USD benefits from prospects of monetary policy normalisation - Commerzbank



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Ulrich Leuchtmann, analyst at Commerzbank, notes that the FX market displayed a notable reaction to Fed Yellen testimony this week, a fact that is quite remarkable following times of continuously falling volatility. He attributes this mainly to prospects of normalisation of US monetary policy, which at the same time supports a dollar appreciation.


Key Quotes


“Two factors are likely to have been decisive for this development: Mrs Yellen had such a dovish reputation that even a neutral statement comes as a surprise. The normalisation of US monetary policy is progressing so notably that the markets are increasingly pricing a return to normal circumstances in the US”.


“The second factor in particular is likely to influence exchange rates in the future, which is why we feel confirmed in our view of a (initially slow but then increasingly rapid) dollar appreciation”.


“The US dollar is increasingly benefiting from the increasingly certain prospect of a normalisation of US monetary policy. Fed signals pointing in this direction are becoming increasingly important for the FX market – even if they should not come as much of a surprise”.





July 18, 2014

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More USD/CAD range trading expected - TD Securities



FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities Rates, FX and Commodities Research team note that USD/CAD continues to struggle to push above short-term resistance in the upper 1.07 range.


Key quotes


"We had been looking for a push to 1.0766 as a consequence of the move above 1.0695 resistance zone earlier this week and while the USD is lacking the incentive—and momentum—to extend the rally at the moment."


"We think neutral directional momentum at this point suggests more range trading, rather than a renewed turn lower, in USD/CAD from here."


"The daily chart for USD/CAD reflects the strong overhead resistance in funds in the upper 1.07 zone, with trend line resistance off the major cycle high above 1.12 capping gains."


"After five waves down and last week’s strong rejection on the daily and weekly charts of the 1.0600/50 area, however, we still rather think risks are geared towards a push higher."


"Gains should pick up above 1.0810/15 where the 200-day MA and the May/June lows converge."


"We think a rebound to the 1.10 area (at least) is achievable still (1.1027 equals a 61.8% retracement of the 1.1277/1.0622 drop). We remain bullish above 1.06."





July 18, 2014

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GBP/USD closing before the pivot on 1.70 handle



FXStreet (Barcelona) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.7084, down -0.09% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.7119 and low at 1.7036.


GBP/USD has fallen shy of the trophy 1.71 handle at the end of this week after a valiant effort to withhold its champion status. Rumours that Carney had given a dovish interview to the press was eventually gathered as being untrue. We are closing here below the pivot by the looks of it.


GBP/USD Levels


Spot is presently trading at 1.7086, and next resistance can be seen at 1.7101 (Daily Open), 1.7110 1.7114 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 1.7119 (Daily High). Support below can be found at 1.7085 (Yesterday's Low), 1.7082 (Daily 20 SMA) and 1.7075 (Weekly Classic S1).





July 18, 2014

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Geopolitical tensions boosting the JPY - BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, observed the strength around the Japanese currency following geopolitical jitters.


Key Quotes


"The yen has continued to strengthen modestly in the Asian trading as global investor risk sentiment has been soured in the near-term by heightened geopolitical tensions".


"The leaders of Britain, France, and Germany on Sunday called on Russian President Putin to ensure that pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine allow the recovery of bodies from the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17."


"They also agreed that the EU must be ready to impose further sanctions on Russia when foreign ministers meet on Tuesday according to a spokesperson from the UK prime minister. Britain will reportedly push as early as today for a UN Security Council resolution to ensure that the Ukraine-led crash enquiry can proceed without delay".


"German Chancellor Merkel reportedly spoke by telephone with Russian President Putin and her spokesperson confirmed that they had agreed that an independent investigatory commission led by the International Civil Aviation Organisation should get quick access to the crash site. Australian prime minister Abbott has also threatened to block Russian President Putin from attending the G20 summit in November if Russia does not help to facilitate an independent investigation."






July 21, 2014

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