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ECB's Linde: Asset purchases considered as an option





FXStreet (Łódź) - Bank of Spain head and ECB Governing Council member Luis María Linde said on Wednesday at an event in Valencia that the MPC had been mulling over the possibility of resorting to asset purchases, but that it was a complicated issue, as Eurozone financial markets remain fragmented.


"The ECB has lots of options but none of them are good," Jamie Coleman comments on FXBeat. "It would like to buy asset-backed securities to help revive bank lending but there is no deep market for European ABS. It could buy EZ government bonds but would face legal challenges as well as liquidity problems in some of the smaller euro zone member markets."


Furthermore, Linde said that the Spanish economy was on a steady path to recovery and that the Spanish central bank could upgrade its GDP forecast in July.








June 25, 2014

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US Q1 GDP reading downgraded by much more than expected - ING





FXStreet (Łódź) - Following the third release of US GDP Q1 data, which revealed a revision of the annualized figure from -1% to -2.9%, James Knightley from ING points out that this leaves US annual growth at just 1.5% year-over-year.


Key quotes


"The consensus expectation was for a -1.8% reading. The damage was largely done through the private consumption component, which is now reported as rising just 1% versus 3.1% previously."


"Gross private investment remained an 11.7% contraction while government consumption was left at -0.8%. However, exports were revised down and imports revised up meaning that the contribution from net trade is to subtract 1.5% from GDP growth rather than 0.95% as previously announced."


"Nonetheless, reaction should be fairly muted given widespread expectations of a sharp bounceback in 2Q14 and the fact that the weather had such a damaging impact on 1Q activity."


"Indeed, we suspect that we could see GDP rise by more than 5% annualised in 2Q. High frequency numbers for the quarter have looked good while inventories should also make a significantly positive contribution after having been run down sharply."








June 25, 2014

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BoE's Carney: Immediate action will be taken is imminent risks emerge




FXStreet (Łódź) - Mark Carney assures that the central bank's actions on housing are "graduate and proportionate" and that they don't affect the central outlook for the economy.


• Housing market proposals today will have no impact on current housing activity, but will "bite" if there's a sustained rise in house prices.


• There's no need to divert monetary policy to address a sector-specific risk in the UK housing market.


• Households will be able to get mortgages if they can afford them.


• New measures on mortgages will prevent responsible lending today from turning into reckless lending tomorrow.








June 26, 2014

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Fed's Bullard expects US inflation to move above 2% in 2015




FXStreet (Łódź) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday that he believed US inflation was currently "turning around" and that next year it would most probably exceed the 2% target level, prompting a discussion on interest rates at the Federal Reserve.


Bullard expressed satisfaction with the improvements on the US labor market, suggesting that they had accelerated since the introduction of QE3. He also said that the Q1 GDP reading on Wednesday which revealed a 2.9% drop, was an "aberration."


The Fed head assured that he "doesn't see a bubble anywhere in the economy," but that the central bank would carefully monitor the developments on the US housing market.








June 26, 2014

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GBP/USD holding above the 1.7000 level - FXStreet




FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the pound rose to test 1.7040 against the dollar on Thursday, with little behind the movement but buying interest.


Key quotes


"The pair however stalled around the strong static resistance level and retraces some with US opening, holding anyway above the 1.7000 figure."


"The hourly chart shows indicators turning lower above their midlines while price holds above a bullish 20 SMA around the mentioned figure."


"In the 4 hours chart indicators hover around their midlines while price stands above a bearish 20 SMA, a picture that lacks upward strength: an advance beyond 1.7061 this year high is what it takes to confirm further gains, eyeing then the 1.7100 price zone."








June 26, 2014

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EUR/USD rebounds and rises back above 1.3600




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD rose back above 1.3600 in the last hour and recovers after falling earlier to 1.3574, the lowest price since Monday. Despite the recent recovery the EUR/USD is still down for the day, as it trades at 1.3609, 0.13% below today’s opening price.


Recent moves in the EUR/USD, surging from 1.3583 to 1.3618, were accompanied by a decline of the US dollar across the board. But on a wider perspective price action in the pair remains limited.


EUR/USD supported by a weak USD


According to the Global Markets Research Team, from the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, the euro is likely to weaken but only modestly against the US dollar in the week ahead. “We do not expect EUR/USD to break below pivotal technical support at around the 1.3500-level. The US dollar is likely to derive support in the week ahead from further evidence that the US economic recovery is strengthening in Q2”.


Analysts expect another solid Non-farm payrolls report in eight days but warned that the Fed’s dovish policy stance will likely “remain a dampener on potential upside for US yields and the US dollar in the near-term”.








June 26, 2014

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Weakening of Eurozone economic sentiment in June is no reason to panic - ING




FXStreet (Łódź) - Martin van Vliet from ING suggests that today's below consensus European Commission business and consumer survey numbers add to concerns over a recovery slowdown in the area.


Key quotes


"The fall in the overall economic sentiment index (ESI), from 102.6 to 102.0 confounded the consensus forecast of a rise to 103.0 and fully reversed the 0.6 point increase in May. However, the index remains well above its long-term average (100) and is still at a level consistent with quarterly gains in GDP of 0.3%/0.4%."


"The decline in overall sentiment in June was led by a drop in the export-sensitive industrial sector. Confidence in the services and retail trade sector actually improved, although the drop in consumer confidence raises questions over the durability of this further improvement."


"The country breakdown, meanwhile, revealed that the decline in sentiment was fairly broad-based, with Spain, the Netherlands and especially Greece notable exceptions (the ESI in Greece rose above its long term average for the first time since August 2008)."


"All in all, the weakening of Eurozone economic sentiment in June is no reason to panic. Business and consumer confidence remain at levels consistent with ongoing economic recovery."


"But it further vindicates the ECB’s recent decision to implement further policy easing. The Eurozone economy simply needs stimulus to sustain this recovery and avert a Japan deflation scenario."









June 27, 2014

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Session Recap: USD mixed heading into the weekend




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The European morning ends with the USD broadly unchanged against majors, with the main exception of the yen, which is outperforming.


The EUR/USD and the GBP/USD show a similar picture, trading flat on the day at 1.3610 and 1.7025 respectively, after peaking during the Asian session.


the USD/JPY fell to a 1-month low of 101.30 before stabilizing in a range. “Japan data out overnight suggests consumption is weathering the April tax hike, and supports the case for no near-term BOJ action”, says the BBH analyst team.


Stocks are broadly higher in Europe, although still on track for weekly losses, while US futures point to a negative open.


During the New York session, the Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence data would be the highlight.


Main Headlines in Europe:


EUR creating some artificial volatility towards the end of month


Gold still moving inside the negative daily cloud


European stocks rise, still headed for weekly losses


Scope for further USD weakness in the short term - TD Securities


UK: GDP grows 0.8% in Q1, as expected


European Monetary Union Economic Sentiment Indicator came in at 102 below forecasts (103) in June


European Monetary Union Consumer Confidence registered at -7.5, below expectations (-6.7) in June










June 27, 2014

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ECB successful with its message to markets?– Rabobank




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analyst at Rabobank explained with its June rate decision, the ECB has brought its key repo rate to the lowest, practically feasible, level.


Key Quotes:


“To acknowledge this, its forward guidance language now reads “the key ECB interest rates will remain at present levels for an extended period of time in view of the current outlook for inflation.” Compared to the previous guidance, the possibility of a further cut has been removed”.


“However, the ECB has been keen to stress that the conventional measures, which accompanied the rate cuts, imply that its message of forward guidance has been further strengthened”.


“The extension of the full allotment procedure until at least end-2016 and the introduction of fixed rate TLTROs (which potentially may extend to end-2018 if banks meet certain criteria) are the ECB’s main exhibits to support this claim”.


“So, has the ECB been successful in getting its message across? It would certainly appear so”.


“First of all, market expectations of future interest rates have dropped markedly since May, when Draghi hinted at “action in June” and even further since the actual announcements in June”.


“This is illustrated in figure 1. Secondly, the variance in future rate expectations by analysts has dropped almost to zero1, which is illustrated in figure 2 where we have used results from Reuters ECB polls since October last year. There is very little doubt among market participants that the ECB will keep its refi rate at 15bp until, at least, 2015Q4”.









June 28, 2014

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US: PMI Manufacturing falls to 57.3 in June




FXStreet (Łódź) - US Markit Manufacturing PMI dropped to 57.3 in June, from 57.5 in May, according to data released today by Markit.









July 01, 2014

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GBP/JPY consolidates highs around 174.00




FXStreet (San Francisco) - The GBP/JPY is joining the sterling strength this week and after climbing 70 pips from 173.40 to nearly 6 month highs at 174.20 in the European morning, the pair is now trading in consolidation mode around 174.00.


Currently, GBP/JPY is trading at 174.06, up 0.44% on the day, having posted a daily high at 174.25 and low at 173.27. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.


GBP/JPY levels


If the pair holds above 174.00, the GBP/JPY would face resistances at 174.50 and 175.00. On the downside, 173.90, 173.40 and 173.10 are supports.









July 01, 2014

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Italian PM expresses faith in EU institutions




FXStreet (Łódż) - Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who spoke before the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday, expressed his faith in EU institutions, adding however that change is necessary as well.


He suggested that if Britain decided to exit the EU, it would be a great loss. Moreover, Renzi urged the MEPs to "bring back confidence and hope to the EU."


On July 1 Italy took over the six-month EU presidency from Greece.









July 02, 2014

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Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet



FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools.


Key quotes


"Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun."


"'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed."


"There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007."


"The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it."








July 02, 2014

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Draghi expected to signal 'wait and see' stance at tomorrow's press conference - FXStreet



FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Analyst Jamie Coleman suggests that ECB chief Mario Draghi will focus on two main themes during tomorrow's post-decision press conference: ECB's need to assess the impact of last month's measures and the availability of additional policy tools.


Key quotes


"Draghi will stress that the programs announced in June have not yet been fully implemented. TLTROs won't even launch until September. ABS market rejuvenation is a long-term project and has barely begun."


"'We have additional tools.' He won't go into much detail, frankly because there is no there there. Draghi will bluff, however, saying the governing council stands united if additional easing measures are needed."


"There are outside risks that since the euro heads into the July meeting on firmer footing than it entered the June meeting, he could attempt to talk down the currency. I put the odds of that at about 1-in-3. Perhaps he will repeat that 'brutal' FX moves are unwelcome, as his predecessor Trichet did in 2004 and again in 2007."


"The risk for the ECB is that the market determines that it is truly out of bullets and pushes the euro even higher in an effort to provoke a policy response. Markets love to inflict pain, and that would be a very good way to do it."








July 02, 2014

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EUR/USD 1.3647 is key - Scotiabank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank notes the conditions surrounding the EUR/USD as we are getting two sides to the story here.


Key Quotes:


"Yesterday, EUR reached a multi-month high, flirting with 1.37; however into the NA open it has softened, down 0.1%”.


“Recent data has been mixed; the Eurozone manufacturing PMI suggest expansion but at a slower rate than expected; the flash CPI hints at a bottoming in disinflationary pressures; while today’s PPI warns of ongoing disinflationary pressures."


"We expect it is the above that will shape the tone at the ECB. Last month’s actions were dramatic but it is still early to judge the impact."


"Accordingly we expect a fairly cautious tone, but one the market is prepared for. For EUR this implies it should be comfortable trading in a broad range of 1.35 to 1.3750."


"EUR/USD short-term technicals: bullish—most studies warn of upside momentum; however a break and close below Monday’s open of 1.3647 would warn of fading upside pressure. Support lies at 1.3600; while resistance comes in at the 100-day MA at 1.3740."








July 02, 2014

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US labor market gaining momentum, but 'shadow unemployment' still severely high - BNP Paribas



FXStreet (Łódź) - Alexandra Estiot, Senior Economist at BNP Paribas comments on the surprisingly strong US NFP report which showed an increase in hiring of 288K in June, saying that a momentum is definitely

building, although the level of underutilization of labor remains high.


Key quotes


"On a 3-month average basis, job creations reached 272k in June. On a year-on-year basis, payrolls growth is a notch below 2.5 million, i.e. the highest reading since the end of 2005."


"As we have argued for a long time, even if very strong over the last five months –and

longer, actually, if December 2013 and January 2014 are analysed as harsh winter related weakness –this pace is still insufficient for rapidly absorbing the very high level of under-utilised labour."


"What Janet Yellen recently called 'shadow unemployment' remains severely high. We can always argue about how to measure it, as the labour force participation rate definitely went down partly because of an ageing population, but its effects are clear."


"Indeed, despite the rapid fall in the unemployment rate, which reached a 6-year low of 6.1% in June, average hourly earnings did not accelerate at all. In June, they gained 0.2% over the month, i.e. +2% from a year earlier, incredibly stable over the last four years."


"Still, there are signs that optimism is allowed. The duration of unemployment episodes is going down. On average, they last 33.5 weeks in June, as compared with37.1 in February. This improvement is noticeable in broad measures of unemployment."


"As long as wage inflation remains that subdued and the labour force participation rate

does not go up again, there will be no reasons to call it a victory over mass unemployment."







July 03, 2014

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EUR/USD finds support at 1.3595, back to 1.3620


FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Euro finally found support at the 1.3600 area against the US dollar as the pair is bouncing back to trade around 1.3620.


The EUR/USD fell around 55 pips from 1.3650 post US employment report to trade below the 1.3600 mark at 1.3595, lowest since June 26. Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3614, down 0.33% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3665 and low at 1.3595.


The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.


EUR/USD sentiment


EUR/USD is trading in consolidation mode around former support at 1.3620. If the pair manages to recover above this level, next resistances are at 1.3640 and 1.3660. On the downside, supports come at 1.3600, 1.3575 and 1.3560.







July 03, 2014

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USD/JPY extends advance to 2-week high at 102.25


The USD/JPY extended its post-NFP gains from 101.80 area and now it is testing the 102.25 level where the pair found some selling interest.


Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.19, up 0.43% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.30 and low at 101.75. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.


USD/JPY Sentiment


"US 10 year notes are now at a 2.657% yield, up a bit less than 3 bp on the day. Earlier they rose to 2.69%, briefly," points Jamie Coleman from FXStreet. "USD/JPY may struggle to maintain its altitude if yields ease further. We trade now at 102.15 after reaching 102.26 highs earlier this morning."


If the pair manages to break above 102.25, it would face resistance at 102.40 and 102.60. On the downside, supports are at 102.00, 101.75 and 101.60.







July 03, 2014

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USD/CAD strongly rejected at 1.0680; now at daily lows


FXStreet (San Francisco) - After trying to break above highs around 1.0680, the USD/CAD was rejected at this level and launched to trade at daily lows around 1.0630.


Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.0636, down 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.0682 and low at 1.0633. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish.


USD/CAD levels


On the downside, a break below 1.0620 would expose the 1.0600 area ahead of 1.0590. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0645, 1.0680 and 1.0695.






July 03, 2014

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UK Industrial Production expected to rise 0.3% in May - RBS





FXStreet (Łódź) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, predicts that month-on-month UK Industrial Production data, due out next Tuesday, could rise 0.3% in May.


Key quotes


"Industrial production rose 0.4% m/m in April, taking the y/y rate up to 3.0% from 2.5% and growth in the latest 3 months up to 1.1% from 0.7%."


"The rise in April was underpinned by a 0.4% rise in manufacturing output – the fifth successive monthly rise, with a positive contribution from electricity, gas & steam being offset by declines in oil & gas and water supply."


"Survey evidence has remained positive, with the PMI output balance remaining at elevated levels in May. CBI industrial trends orders and output balances were barely altered in May (at relatively buoyant levels)."


"Similarly, the BoE Agents scores for manufacturing output were broadly maintained in May, with domestic activity more buoyant than the export-facing sector."


"We forecast IP to rise 0.3% m/m in May, taking the y/y rate up to 3.2% and leaving the sector on course to expand by 1.0% q/q in Q2."


"For manufacturing output, the risks appear skewed towards a slightly higher outturn (given the more-often-than-not drag from the energy components – in 7 of the previous 8 months)."







July 04, 2014

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