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US Treasury Secretary: Pace of US economic recovery too slow




FXStreet (Barcelona) - In a speech delivered before the New York Economic Club US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the US economy was improving but that the pace of economic growth was still unsatisfactory and that unemployment remained excessively elevated.


"The ultimate test for all of us will be how inclusive tomorrow’s economy becomes and how widely our economic gains flow," he said. "The crisis we face today is the need to make sure the economy is expanding fast enough to support a growing middle class."


Lew urged employers to give long-term unemployed a fair chance. Furthermore, he stressed the need for an increase in infrastructure spending and for an overhaul of the tax code.






June 11, 2014

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EUR/USD unable to attract buyers limited below 1.3570/80 price zone - FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik EUR/USD remarks that EUR/USD bounced some after posting a daily low of 1.3521, still unable to attract buyers limited below 1.3570/80 price zone, former lows and immediate resistance.


Key quotes


“The hourly chart shows price above its 20 SMA but indicators turning flat around their midlines, loosing early upward momentum.”


“In the 4 hours chart indicators aim slightly higher from oversold levels, supporting current upward corrective movement, albeit 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope, offering dynamic resistance also around 1.3580.”


“With no much news to move the pair, market players are keeping their eyes on yields differentials and stocks, the first shrinking the second falling.”






June 11, 2014

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GBP/USD rally stalls a few pips below 1.6800 - FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes, the GBP/USD rally stalled a few pips below the 1.6800 figure after better than expected UK employment reading gave Pound a lift across the board.


Key quotes


“The hourly chart shows the strong upward momentum prevails as per indicators heading north above their midlines, and price steady above a mild bullish 20 SMA currently around 1.6750.”


“In the 4 hours chart price was unable to extend beyond its moving averages 20 SMA and 200 EMA, both converging in the 1.6790 price zone while indicators lost upward strength around their midlines. ”


“Critical resistance stands around 1.6820, yesterday’s high and the daily descendant trend line coming from this year high. Only above this level the pair will be able to extend its rally, looking then for a test of 1.6860 price zone.”






June 11, 2014

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AUD/USD fails to hold above 0.9400



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD made an appearance above 0.9400 at the beginning of the American session but failed to sustain gains for long and pulled back slightly.


The AUD/USD briefly rose above the 0.9400 mark and scored a fresh 1-month peak of 0.9405 before sliding back to the 0.9385 zone, where it holds onto a 0.14% gain on the day. The AUD/USD has risen 6 out of the 8 trading days of June, printing higher highs on daily basis, helped by carry trades flows.


AUD/USD technical perspective


Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that short-term technical indicators are losing their bullish strength, but she notes that “only below 0.9360 the pair will come under some selling pressure, while steady gains above 0.9400 are required to confirm an advance up to 0.9460 this year high”.


Bednarik locates next resistance levels at 0.9390, 0.9430 and 0.9460, while supports are seen at 0.9360 0.9325 0.9290.





June 11, 2014

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USD/JPY stuck around 102.00 - FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that USD/JPY remains stuck around the 102.00 level, having been unable to move anywhere far over the last 24 hours.


Key quotes


“The hourly chart shows 100 SMA crossing to the downside 200 one both above current price, while indicators head lower in neutral territory.”


“In the 4 hours chart a mild bearish tone prevails, albeit showing no directional strength, as indicators stand flat in negative territory.”


“Break below 101.70 is now required to confirm a leg lower, eyeing the 101.20/30 price zone.”





June 12, 2014

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Policy rate cut limits MXN appreciation potential - UBS



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The UBS analyst team observes that the recent policy rate cut by the Mexican Central Bank limits the appreciation potential of the Mexican peso (MXN).


Key Quotes


"The recent policy rate cut by the Mexican central bank limits the appreciation potential of the Mexican peso, in our view".


"Meanwhile, faster growth and inflows from foreign direct investments, triggered by the implementation of recently approved reforms, are expected to remain supportive factors".


"Still, we trim our benign view on the Mexican peso somewhat and therefore revise our three, six and 12-month forecasts to 12.9, 12.9 and 12.7, respectively, from 12.7, 12.7 and 12.5 previously".







June 13, 2014

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Trying to gauge the impact of the ECB – Rabobank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that for months there has been speculation as to what reaction a negative deposit rate from the ECB would have.


Key Quotes:


“It is still very early days the past couple of sessions have offered a little insight”.


“Unsurprisingly overnight deposits at the ECB plunged to their lowest level since 2011 on the first day the negative rate took effect. Deposits by Eurozone banks totalled a meagre EUR13.6 bln down EUR25 bln from the previous day (though banks deposited an additional EUR16.7 bln in their current accounts held at the national central banks)”.


“At least one bank has made the announcement that it will no longer deposit surplus cash at the ECB, although it seems likely that many international banks have had a strong incentive to swap into alternative currencies since the deposit rate was pushed down to zero”.


“While it is difficult to drawn firm conclusions as to any changes in banks’ behaviour at this stage, money market rates have pushed lower as a consequence of the ECB action to levels well below last month’s average and the yield on Germany’s 2 year note has hit its lowest level in a year”.


“The reaction in interest rates has led to talk of the EUR potentially being used as a funding currency for carry trades. However, in a region as complex as the Eurozone, the term ‘carry trade’ should be used with caution. Positive ‘carry’ on peripheral bond yields has been fundamental to EUR resilience since late 2012”.


“The ECB’s threat that QE could yet be invoked could therefore lend the EUR support if it increased demand for bonds. The ECB will be aiming to engineer a fall in net demand for the EUR through the changes in monetary policy instruments”.







June 13, 2014

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Session recap: consolidation mode at end of a dramatic week for GBP



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Markets were somewhat in consolidation mode at the end of the week and the session has been somewhat sleepy, with World Cup distractions no doubt! We prepare now for the week ahead and the FOMC, focusing o the yield differentials, but meanwhile:


EUR/USD remained pretty steady after slipping to the lows of 1.3520 in sleepy markets bar some of the short covering up to 1.3540. Markets attention will likely revert back to the interest yields ahead of the FOMC next week although today’s upset for the EZ from Italy in respect of short falls in bank capital is a reminder of the euro crisis in the background.


USD/JPY was a non-event and very quiet post yesterday’s gains.


GBP/USD was in consolidation mode after the bulls took the pair higher on Carney’s hawkish speech yesterday which gave the sense that a rate hike is coming sooner than we had been expecting. 1.7000 is a number that the bulls see as a relatively easy task ahead as move into next week while the range today has been between a cool 30 pips around the middle of the handle.


Key Events:


US producer price fall


University of Michigan consumer sentiment disappointed


Canadian manufacturing sales were weaker than expected


Meanwhile, Spain lost 5-1 to the Netherlands – just saying! Have a good weekend.







June 14, 2014

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Session recap: consolidation mode at end of a dramatic week for GBP



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Markets were somewhat in consolidation mode at the end of the week and the session has been somewhat sleepy, with World Cup distractions no doubt! We prepare now for the week ahead and the FOMC, focusing o the yield differentials, but meanwhile:


EUR/USD remained pretty steady after slipping to the lows of 1.3520 in sleepy markets bar some of the short covering up to 1.3540. Markets attention will likely revert back to the interest yields ahead of the FOMC next week although today’s upset for the EZ from Italy in respect of short falls in bank capital is a reminder of the euro crisis in the background.


USD/JPY was a non-event and very quiet post yesterday’s gains.


GBP/USD was in consolidation mode after the bulls took the pair higher on Carney’s hawkish speech yesterday which gave the sense that a rate hike is coming sooner than we had been expecting. 1.7000 is a number that the bulls see as a relatively easy task ahead as move into next week while the range today has been between a cool 30 pips around the middle of the handle.


Key Events:


US producer price fall


University of Michigan consumer sentiment disappointed


Canadian manufacturing sales were weaker than expected


Meanwhile, Spain lost 5-1 to the Netherlands – just saying! Have a good weekend.







June 14, 2014

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USD/JPY uninspired by US data



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY edged a tad higher but remained down on the day after data showed US industrial production grew slightly above expectations in May.


US industrial production rose 0.6% in May after falling 0.3% in April, surpassing forecast of a 0.5% increase, while capacity utilization rose to 79.1 from a revised 78.9 in April. The USD/JPY climbed a few pips after the data, which hardly classifies as a recovery, but lacked momentum. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 101.85 zone, still down 0.2% on the day.


USD/JPY technical outlook


Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the USD/JPY maintains a short-term bearish tone. “Nevertheless, the pair is seeing little action this Monday, finding short term support around 101.70”, said the analyst. “Some follow through either below 101.70 or above 102.35 is required to confirm some directional move in the pair”.







June 16, 2014

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USD/JPY jumps after US CPI



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY jumped and hit fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session after data showed US consumer inflation rose at a faster pace in May.


US consumer inflation index rose 2.1% YoY in May, while core CPI hit 2.0%, matching the Fed target. On the other hand, housing starts dropped more than expected, leaving room for the Fed to continue withdrawing monetary stimulus at at a moderate pace.


As for the USD/JPY, the pair climbed back above 102.00 as the greenback gains on the data, hitting a 6-day peak of 102.18 before slowing. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.15 zone, recording a 0.32% gain Tuesday.


USD/JPY technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find next resistances at 102.20 (100-day SMA), 102.38 (Jun 11 high) and 102.56 (Jun 10 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at

101.80 (Jun 17 lowl), 101.60 (Jun 12 low) and 101.54 (200-day SMA).








June 17, 2014

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Bumpy ride for GBP/USD on US and UK inflation numbers



FXStreet (London) - GBP/USD has seen a choppy day of trading, first declining on weaker-than-expected UK inflation numbers before recovering, followed by a second decline on higher US inflation numbers.


More space for loose BoE policy


The Office for National Statistics reported that consumer prices index-measured inflation (CPI) grew by 1.5 percent in the year to May 2014, down from 1.8 percent in April. Prices rose less than the consensus expectation of a 1.7 percent gain year-on-year. Sterling fell sharply against its peers on the assumption that the benign inflation data would give the Bank of England room to leave rates low for longer, despite the conspicuously more hawkish tone adopted by BoE governor Mark Carney and deputy governor Charlie Bean in recent comments


According to the ONS, falls in transport services costs, notably air fares, provided the largest contribution to the decrease in the rate. Other large downward effects came from the food & non-alcoholic drinks and clothing sectors. The largest offsetting upward effects came from motor fuels and recreation & culture.


The weaker UK inflation helped to buck a four-day rally in GBP/USD after it climbed to a multi-year highs, breaking through USD1.700 for the first time since 2009.


Data checks GBP gains


The pair recovered through the morning session but declined again on stronger-than-expected US inflation numbers.


Stronger US inflation numbers


The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis. Year-on-year, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.


The BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, which was the largest since February 2013, was broad-based. The indexes for shelter, electricity, food, airline fares, and gasoline were among those that contributed. The food index posted its largest increase since August 2011, with the index for food at home rising 0.7 percent. The increases in the electricity and gasoline indexes led to a 0.9 percent rise in the energy index.


GBP/USD is currently trading at USD1.6964, hitting a session-low of USD1.6941 on the UK inflation numbers before testing resistance at USD1.6950 on US data. The pair is currently down 0.09 percent on the session.








June 17, 2014

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USD/JPY trading at weekly high






FXStreet (London) - Following better than expected US CPI data, USD/JPY has pushed on to post a weekly high at 102.23.


USD/JPY led higher by US inflation data


While the main act this week is undoubtedly the FOMC meet tomorrow, US CPI numbers led the way this afternoon, coming in better than expected


YoY CPI bettering expectations at 2.1%/2% and MoM 0.4%/0.2%. CPI ex Food and Energy also beat expectations too. However, both Housing Starts and Building permits missed forecasts and declined on previous.


The pair had had a choppy start to the days trading, climbing to post an overnight high at 102.02 before retracing into a range throughout the European session. However, US data gave the pair the impetus to crack on higher to post a high at 102.23.


Dating back to June 12th, the pair has faced resistance just above the 102 mark, but managed to get its head above the June 12th and 13th highs at 102.14. Spot has edged back from highs and is finding support at the 1H 200 SMA at 102.20.


USD/JPY Technicals


USD/JPY is up 0.36% on the day at 102.19, having previously posted a daily high at 102.26 and a low at 101.81. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.


Meanwhile, daily RSI is in neutral territory at 45.59. Hourly 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is currently 38 pips, and has been expanding, while the ATR (14) is currently 6 pips. On a daily chart, 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is shrinking at 152 pips.


USD/JPY Levels


Current price is 102.20, with resistance ahead at 102.22 (Daily 100 SMA), 102.26 (Daily High), 102.28 (Daily Classic R2), 102.35 (Weekly High) and 102.46 (Daily Classic R3). To the downside we see next support at 102.19 (Hourly 200 SMA), 102.11 (Yesterday's High), 102.10 (Weekly Classic PP), 102.08 (Daily 20 SMA) and 102.06 (Daily Classic R1).








June 17, 2014

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Dollar strength sends USD/JPY back above 102.00 - FXStreet






FXStreet (Barcelona) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik remarks, post-CPI dollar strength sent USD/JPY back above the 102.00 figure, with the hourly chart showing price advanced up to its 200 SMA where it halted.


Key quotes


“The hourly chart shows a strong upward momentum coming from technical readings, albeit this area has proved tough over the last few days.”


“In the 4 hours chart technical readings present a mild positive tone, yet some follow through past 102.35 is require to confirm a stronger advance in the short term. ”








June 17, 2014

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Dovish BoE Minutes weigh on GBP/USD - FXStreet






FXStreet (Barcelona) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out, GBP/USD has lost some ground amid dovish BoE Minutes that have shown no change in the votes, down to 1.6931 on the day, but the pair is back at 1.6950 currently.


Key quotes


"The hourly chart shows a mild bearish tone, as per price holding below its 20 SMA and indicators in negative territory, while the 4 hours chart shows indicators turning also lower around their midlines."


"Price has stood above post Carney’s wording on rate hikes high, so the upside continues to be favored, with a break above 1.7000 still required to confirm a new leg up."








June 18, 2014

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USD/CAD holds above 1.0855 ahead of the FED






FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD remains quiet on Wednesday, as investors await for the FOMC statement and Yellen’s press conference. The Loonie is falling modestly against the US dollar for the second day in a row, but trading remains limited.


Currently the pair trades at 1.0866, up 0.06% for the day, moving in a range below 1.0875 and above 1.0855.


USD/CAD technical outlook


According to FX Analysts at TD Securities, the pair is picking up more support on the short term chart but the market remains essentially range-bound. “We look for a little more topside progress over the course of the session but we still have to think that near-term gains will struggle to push on through resistance in the high 1.08s for the moment”.







June 18, 2014

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