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USD/CAD hits 1.0900

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now picking up pace vs. its Canadian counterpart on Monday, lifting the USD/CAD to post multi-day highs around 1.0900 the figure.

USD/CAD in 2-week highs

The pair managed to leave behind the overnight consolidation around 1.0840 to briefly climb above the 1.0900 handle after mixed data from the US docket: Markit manufacturing PMI surprised investors to the upside in May (56.4 act. vs. 55.5 exp.) while the ISM Manufacturing dropped to 53.2 vs. 55.4 forecasted. “The pair has struggled to sustain upward momentum away from the trend line resistance-turned-support drawn off of the March peak. Gains above 1.0868 would open up a run into 1.0940/50; conversely, a break below 1.0819 would enable a slide towards 1.0750”, commented Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.45% at 1.0895 and a break above 1.0942 (high May 21) ahead of 1.0962 (61.8% of 1.1053-1.0814) and finally 1.1001 (21-w MA). On the flip side, the initial support lines up at 1.0814 (low May 8) ahead of 1.0762 (low Jan.8) and then 1.0737 (high Dec.20).

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June 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY stumbles after ISM manufacturing

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY tripped and fell toward the 102.00 area after the ISM manufacturing index came in well below market’s expectations.

The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 53.2 in May from 54.9 in April. That fell short of the 55.8 forecast although readings above 50.0 point to expansion in the sector. The USD/JPY backed away from a 2-week high of 102.28 and slid to 102.04 before finding support. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.10 area, still 0.26% above its opening price.

USD/JPY technical perspective

“In the 4 hours chart indicators also present a strong upward momentum that will prevail as long as buyers surge on dips down to 102.00”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “Daily chart shows 100 SMA around 102.35, offering intraday resistance: accelerations above this latter should lead to the 102.70/103.00 price zone”.

USD/JPY levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, if the USD/JPY next resistances could be found at 102.27/28 (May 14 & June 2 highs) and 102.35/37 (May 13 high/100-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.75 (Jun 2 low), 101.42 (May 29 low) and 101.35 (May 22 low).

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June 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD likely to consolidate either side of 1.1000 - Scotiabank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Camilla Sutton, analyst at Scotiabank commented that the BoC is likely to reiterate its neutral stance next Wednesday, which would support a range bound environment for USD/CAD either side of 1.1000.

Key Quotes

“BoC is likely to reiterate its neutral stance, emphasizing that interest rates are on hold for an extended period. Friday’s Q1 GDP was disappointing, with soft exports and business investment suggesting that the anticipated shift in the economy continues to prove elusive. However with headline inflation at 2% it will be hard for the BoC to signal anything dovish”.

“The market is pricing in a balanced outlook for interest rates, with no probability of a hike or cut priced in. For CAD this is likely to support a somewhat range bound environment; with USD/CAD either side of 1.10”.

“USD/CAD short‐term technicals: mixed—and range bound warns that for near‐term traders there is better risk/reward elsewhere. Support lies at the recent low of 1.0814 while resistance lies at the recent high of 1.0942”.

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June 02, 2014

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Singapore Purchasing Managers Index down to 50.8 in May from previous 51.1

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June 03, 2014

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United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MoM) registered at 47.7 above expectations (46.5) in June

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June 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD remains above 1.0900, BoC eyed

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is appreciating against the Canadian dollar on Wednesday, pushing the USD/CAD to the 1.0925/30 area ahead of the BoC statement.

USD/CAD looks to the BoC

The pair keeps alive the recent rally from the 1.0830 region backed by a better momentum of the US dollar, despite the decreasing yields in the US money markets. In the data front, Canadian trade balance showed a $0.64 billion deficit in April, missing expectations for a $0.20 billion surplus and down from March’s $0.77 billion surplus. Next of note in Canada, the BoC will hold its monetary policy meeting, although there will be no press conference by Governor Poloz. “The BoC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.0%. Thus, the main focus will be on the characterization of the outlook portrayed in the statement, as it will have to balance the disappointing outturn for Q1 real GDP with inflation running ahead of what was forecast in the April MPR”, commented Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to consider

The pair is now up 0.14% at 1.0924 with the next resistance at 1.0962 (61.8% of 1.1053-1.0814) ahead of 1.1001 (21-w MA) and then 1.1014 (low Apr.25). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0814 (low May 8) would target 1.0762 (low Jan.8) en route to 1.0737 (high Dec.20).

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June 04, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoC keeps interest rate steady at 1% in May

FXStreet (Łódź) - As widely expected, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1% at its May monetary policy meeting. The Bank Rate remained correspondingly at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%.

In a statement released after the decision was made known, the BoC said that inflation rose towards the 2% target earlier than projected in the April Monetary Policy Report.

The central bank noted the weakness of global growth in the first quarter of the year, adding that Canada grew “at a modest rate” due to “severe weather and supply constraints.”

Finally the BoC commented that “weighing recent higher inflation readings against slightly increased risks to economic growth leaves the downside risks to the inflation outlook as important as before,” while “the risks associated with household imbalances remain elevated” and therefore the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate.

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June 04, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Welcome to ECB day, expect a rate cut - Societe Generale

FXStreet (London) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale is expecting a rate cut at todays ECB meet.

Key Quotes

"Welcome to ECB day. We expect a rate cut (Refi to 0.1%, Deposit Facility to -0.1%) liquidity injection (end of SMP sterilisation and targeted LTRO) and a modest (Eur 300bn) private sector asset buying programme."

"This is more aggressive than our understanding of the consensus view. Rate cuts are fully priced in, but there is no widespread agreement about liquidity measures."

"Markets are however, pricing in the possibility that the ECB President delivers a risk-friendly message successfully. The reaction to failure to cut rates at all would be bigger than even the announcement a large-scale asset purchase programme (EUR 1trn plus)."

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June 05, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Welcome to ECB day, expect a rate cut - Societe Generale

FXStreet (London) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale is expecting a rate cut at todays ECB meet.

Key Quotes

"Welcome to ECB day. We expect a rate cut (Refi to 0.1%, Deposit Facility to -0.1%) liquidity injection (end of SMP sterilisation and targeted LTRO) and a modest (Eur 300bn) private sector asset buying programme."

"This is more aggressive than our understanding of the consensus view. Rate cuts are fully priced in, but there is no widespread agreement about liquidity measures."

"Markets are however, pricing in the possibility that the ECB President delivers a risk-friendly message successfully. The reaction to failure to cut rates at all would be bigger than even the announcement a large-scale asset purchase programme (EUR 1trn plus)."

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June 05, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a registered at 48.2, below expectations (56) in May

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June 05, 2014

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Mexico Consumer Confidence rose from previous 90.3 to 90.7 in May

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June 05, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY declines to daily lows

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US Dollar is falling across the board and the USD/JPY is declining to session lows as risk appetite eased ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls.

In addition, the "USD/JPY has stalled repeatedly ahead of 102.85, the 61.8% retracement of the 104.14/100.79 drop and prices have come back under pressure," comments Jamie Coleman from FXBeat. So now again.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 102.45, down 0.27% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.79 and low at 102.34. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

USD/JPY sentiment

Supports are at 102.25 and more stops just below. Above the 102.85 USD/JPY has resistances at 103.02 level.

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June 05, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

It is still all about the Fed – Rabobank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank suggested that the ECB’s went further than expected yesterday with its list of monetary policy measures. However, by the close of the European trading session yesterday EUR/USD had already given back all of its post announcement losses.

Key Quotes:

“It seems that after years of extraordinary policy measures from various central banks the market has become sceptical as to their potential impact”.

“Huge volumes of QE by the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE have been successful at stoking stock markets gains and in many countries house prices inflation also”.

“However, slow growth and elevated levels of unemployment are still widespread across the developed world. The ECB’s new TLTRO may appear to be a reasonable concept to push cheap lending out to SMEs in the most stressed regions of the Eurozone”.

“However, it is not clear to what extent banks will want to lend into this very risky sector particularly in an environment in which they are paying back existing LTRO borrowing. All these scepticism sits on top of the fact that the dovish warnings of ECB President Draghi in the May meeting had convinced investors to take short EUR positions.”

“The ECB over the past few weeks has thus managed to engineer only a “buy of the rumours, sell on the fact” pattern for the EUR; it seems that the ECB’s ability to set the EUR into a new downtrend is still limited. Going forward there is reason to suspect that downside potential in EUR/USD could be evasive until USD bulls re-emerge in force”.

“Although there are signs that US growth is picking up after a horrible winter, economic data are not sufficiently strong to draw the bulls back to the market”.

“Adding to the torpor of the dollar is the perception that it would take a rocket to move the Fed from its present course of monetary policy. While the Fed is gradually reducing the size of its monthly assets purchases, it has persuaded the market that rates will remain at their all time long for a prolonged period. We expect that the Fed funds rate will not be raised until the very end of 2015 at the earliest and afterwards that the pace of tightening will be slow”.

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June 06, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD back to the start again

FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD> is trading at 0.9326, down -0.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9360 and low at 0.9319.

AUD/USD is back into Asia levels where FX ranges were vey narrow as traders awaited the events in the US session in the jobs data. The US non-farm payrolls rose by 217k in May, very close to consensus. Still, this is a bit of a relief, according to Teunis Brosens, analyst at ING Bank NV, as earlier indicators this week on balance pointed towards some downward risk. “This is the fourth month in a row with job growth above 200k. This includes the winter bounce back, however. Average job growth over the past 6 months is 192k, which is a continuation of the trend growth seen since early 2011. A major hallmark today is that the total number of jobs finally rose above the pre-crisis peak of 138.4m jobs reached in January 2008”…. "In total, this is a solid report showing the continuing gradual improvement of the US labour market”. However, he added that there simply is no evidence of wage inflation yet. “Consequently, we see little likelihood that the Fed will deviate from their established $10bn per meeting taper pace at the upcoming FOMC-meeting (18-19 June)”.

AUD/USD next week

In respect of the week ahead for Australian, strategists at TD Securities noted the following highlights: “May Business Confidence and Conditions will be keenly watched to gauge whether sentiment has shifted significantly following the Federal Budget and after last week’s poor Building Approvals data, Apr Home loan data takes on more importance, both data releases out on Tues. Westpac Consumer Confidence for Jun is out on Wed followed by the May Jobs report on Thurs”.

AUD/USD Levels

Spot is presently trading at 0.9327, and next resistance can be seen at 0.9332 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.9340 (Weekly High), 0.9341 (Daily Open), 0.9348 (Yesterday's High) and 0.9357 (Weekly Classic R1). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.9319 (Daily Low), 0.9315 (Daily Classic PP), 0.9288 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.9284 (Weekly Classic PP) and 0.9283 (Hourly 100 SMA).

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June 06, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY remains capped on the upside, 140 remains key

FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is trading at 139.82, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 140.00 and low at 139.38.

EUR/JPY has recovered from below the half way mark on the handle but offers are protecting ground much beyond 139.80 on the bid. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted that the market’s correction higher has so far stalled at 140. “The near term move higher will make little impact on our negative bias while capped by 141.00 and the 2014 downtrend at 141.93. We look for it to struggle above 140”.

EUR/JPY is about ECB and EUR/USD ranges

Jim Reid , analyst at Deutsche Bank A explained that the ECB has bought itself some time and seems to be ready to wait for quite a while, possibly next year, for the next step. In terms of the performance of the euro, and taking into consideration of the implications for the EUR/JPY cross, Strategists at the bank explained that conditions are still set in place for a range-bound EUR/USD over the summer months but are worried near term about a potential squeeze higher, particularly given the currency’s propensity to rise after every ECB meeting over the last 12 months and real rates suggesting fair value closer to 1.38. Meanwhile, analyst at Rabobank said to expect EUR/USD to remain mostly confined in the 1.36 to 1.38 area on a 3 mth view and edge down towards the 1.35 area by the end of the year.

EUR/JPY Levels

Spot is presently trading at 139.83, and next resistance can be seen at 139.90 (Weekly High), (Daily Open), 140.00 (Daily High), 140.02 (Yesterday's High) and 140.12 (Weekly Classic R2). Support below can be found at 139.71 (Hourly 20 EMA), 139.56 (Hourly 100 SMA), 139.55 (Daily 20 SMA), 139.53 (Daily Classic PP) and 139.44 (Weekly Classic R1).

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June 06, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Technical market observations - RBS

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at RBS offered a snap shot of technical observations across the markets.

Key Quotes:

"Bunds stuck between retracements, a 144.00 – 146.00 range likely for the next week".

"Treasuries reached the downside targets, but bounced from 50-DMA; more downside expected after correction".

"Gilts reached the 109.24 level; after a bullish correction, further move South expected".

"S&P-500 might have a correction from the 1,949 resistance, but remains bullish overall targeting 2,030".

"Italian 10-yr yield broke a key resistance level, making the market bullish towards 2.41% and potentially below".

"EUR/USD FX seems to have formed a long-term base after bouncing from 1.35 amid H&S pattern".

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June 06, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD bearish/neutral outlook - Scotiabank

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla Sutton, CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank explained GBP is ending the week having made gains and broken out of its tight range.

Key Quotes:

Data today included falling inflation expectations, rising interest rake hike expectations and a widening of the trade deficit; however as the market continues to digest ECB policy and anticipates nonfarm there was limited GBP reaction to the domestic side."

"GBP/USD short‐term technicals: bearish but rapidly shifting towards a more neutral outlook. GBP’s ability to break through the topside of its range is encouraging for GBP bulls; however a significant catalyst, like a hawkish turn at the BoE, would be needed to see GBP break above its ytd high of 1.6996."

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June 06, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Have a good weekend, it’s been a dull one – Societe Generale

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Kit Jukes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale bids us a good weekend at the end of the week.

Key Quotes:

“My parting thought for the weekend after a 'meh' NFP that points to a better Q2 for the US economy than Q1, an uptrend in wage growth so gradual it makes a tortoise look energetic, and a pace of hours worked which is barely keeping up with GDP".

"The US economy can generate enough jobs to keep the unemployment rate going down, but not enough to worry the Fed. The result is a a very risk-friendly environment as investors are forced to look for some kind of return, somewhere else. Mexico's response, taking the opportunity to cut rates by 50bp as money flows into their bond market, sums it up which entertained me, it shows the standard deviation of the last 24 monthly payroll changes, over the last 50-something year. Not only are we at less than half the average, but we are at an all-time low. Never has the first Friday of the month been so dull! And it's going to get even worse next month, when the first Friday is July the 4th”.

“So, have a quiet one...”

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June 06, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Have a good weekend, it’s been a dull one – Societe Generale

FXStreet (Córdoba) - On a low volatility American session, the US dollar consolidate modest daily gains, trimming part of yesterday's losses. The US employment report generated little impact among currencies: Greenback initially fell but then rebounded strongly.

Over the week the best performers were the Pound and the Australian Dollar. The GBP/USD ended the week above 1.6800, rebounding from 1.6700 while the AUD/USD, supported by 0.9200, was able to climbed back above 0.9300.

The Euro and the Swiss Franc surged on Thursday and consolidate on Friday, to end the week little changed. The EUR/USD ended hovering around 1.3640, at the same level it had a week ago, but far from Thursday’s lows that lie at 1.3502.

The Kiwi and the Aussie were supported by risk appetite and managed to closed the week with gains but still facing some downside pressure ahead of the RBNZ meeting and the Australian employment report.

Main headlines in the American session

USD/JPY giving us a bullish technical play

Wall Street rallied for third day

GBP/JPY post highest weekly close in a month

GBP/USD sustained uptrend in place

EUR/USD steady around 1.3635

NZD/USD testing downside ahead of dovish RBNZ prospects

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June 07, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD to regain recent uptrend? – ANZ

FXStreet (Guatemala) - Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research, explained the recent slippage below 1.3775 in EUR/USD has increased the possibility that a medium-term cycle has completed on the virtual test of 1.4000.

Key Quotes:

“This does not necessarily mean a collapse, but more likely a corrective pullback over coming months”.

“Although a distinct wedge-like pattern has been broken, confirmation of the potential pullbacks towards 1.3250 (or even 1.3015) would only be gained on a weekly close below 1.3475”.

“As noted, the expected profile is one of corrective pullbacks and so it is highly likely that there will be periods of sharp squeezes to threaten - but fail - to regain the recent uptrend”.

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June 07, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Euro wakes up from lethargic range – FXStreet

FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests that even though the European calendar is light today, earlier remarks from Angela Merkel on the fragility of the recovery in the area and ECB policymakers' comments on the easing measures caused the euro to wake up from its lethargic range, breaking lower and reaching 1.3556.

Key quotes

“Nevertheless, the technical picture shows an increase in the bearish potential, with indicators finally detaching from their midlines and accelerating south, while the slide extends below moving averages. ”

“Pressuring daily lows, immediate short term support stands in the 1.3520/30 price zone, followed by 1.3476, this year low. Large stops should lay under it and if triggered, the selloff will likely extend over the upcoming days.”

“To the upside now, 1.3600 figure stands as immediate resistance, with a break above it pointing for a recovery up to 1.3640 price zone, albeit hardly seen at this point.”

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June 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Positive UK Industrial Production data gives GBP/USD a brief boost – FXStreet

FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik, data released today showing a considerable annual increase in UK Industrial Output gave GBP/USD a lift up to 1.6817 daily high.

Key quotes

“However, the pair was unable to hold to its gains and quickly fell back below the 1.6800 mark, posting a lower low for the week at 1.6765.”

“In the 4 hours chart, price accelerates below its 200 EMA and points to close current candle below it, first time in a week and a first sign on increasing bearish pressure. The same chart shows price also below 20 SMA, albeit indicators remain flat in neutral territory not yet reflecting latest slide. ”

“Finding some buyers around critical 1.6770 support, renewed selling pressure below the level should favor a retest of the 1.6700/20 price zone, next bit support. Further falls are not yet seen, yet once below 1.6690, the path is quite clear down to the 1.6650 level.”

“200 EMA at 1.6795 acts as immediate short term resistance, followed by 1.6820 the daily descendant trend line coming from this year high. Gains above this last are required to deny the bearish tone, not seen for today.”

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June 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD deflates from highs

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD-rally is now losing vigour, dragging the USD/CAD to test the critical 1.0900 handle after hitting session tops near 1.0920.

USD/CAD capped by 1.0960

Spot continues to correct lower from recent peaks around 1.0960 bolstered by better risk sentiment, although the greenback seems to be recovering from recent pullbacks. “We still view the broader trend here as positive, however, and still prefer to look for opportunities to buy USDs. USDCAD has struggled to push back through the 40-day MA in the past few weeks so an extension through the low 1.09s and a firm close is a basic pre-requisite for a more positive, short-term view of the market”, observed Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is up 0.01% with the next hurdle at 1.0.962 (high Jun.5) ahead of 1.1001 (21-w MA) and finally 1.1007 (high May 2). On the downside, a break below 1.0875 (low Jun.9) would expose 1.0814 (low May 8) and then 1.0762 (low Jan.8).

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June 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD recovery capped by 1.3560

FXStreet (Córdoba) - After the latest recovery attempt was capped by the 1.3560 area, the EUR/USD is back headed south following better-than-expected US wholesale data.

US wholesale inventories rose 1.1% in April, while wholesale sales climbed 1.3%, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The EUR/USD dropped back below 1.3550 and it is currently trading at 1.3545, recording a 0.35% loss on the day.

EUR/USD outlook

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that US-Eurozone yield spreads are weighing on the EUR/USD in absence of economic data. “The 4 hours chart shows a strong bearish momentum, with indicators finally moving away from neutral readings. 1.3520 comes as immediate support, and once broken, the pair has room to extend down to 1.3476, YTD low”.

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June 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY holds support at 102.20

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY bounced off lows and reached fresh session highs following the release of better-than-expected US wholesale inventories.

The USD/JPY found support once again at the 102.20 area, which has already contained the downside during the European morning, and turned north, climbing to a session high of 102.41. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 102.35 area, still 0.17% below its opening price.

USD/JPY technical outlook

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the USD/JPY holds a slightly negative tone. “Below 102.05, the pair can extend its slide down to 101.70, while below this latter, bears will take full control”.

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June 10, 2014

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