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USD/JPy gains to remain capped - TDS



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at tD Securities explained that they look for USD/JPY gains to remain capped at or near the cloud resistance base (currently 102.44) from here.


"USD/JPY’s decline stalled around the 200-day MA and the 2014 low just below 101 this week; the large “doji” candle that price action developed mid-week around these technically sensitive support points will allow for a modest rebound in the USD in the near-term but we do not (yet, at least) have any conviction that the recovery in the USD is sustainable".


"Underlying momentum indicators are still negatively aligned on the longer-term studies and the USD’s overall position on the daily cloud chart remains negative".


We look for USD/JPY gains to remain capped at or near the cloud resistance base (currently 102.44) from here. Only a sustained push higher through the mid/upper 102s would imply that there is more recovery potential at the moment.







May 24, 2014

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Lower Canada relative productivity linked with CAD upside – BTMU



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that the productivity growth has long been a concern in Canada, where it has been running lower than that of the US.


Key Quotes:


“The differential has actually widened substantially since the end of the tech boom”.


“From an FX perspective, generally such a negative productivity differential implies longer-term currency weakness”.


“However, the relatively low productivity growth in Canada has been consistent with a stronger CAD (see the Chart of the day, which shows one reduced-form illustration of the link between USD/CAD changes and relative Canadian productivity), despite the usual relationship between weaker productivity and a weaker currency over the longer-term”.


“The persistent relative under performance of Canadian productivity relative to that in the US is consistent with our own longer-term expectations that broader macro conditions should lead to some further Canadian dollar weakness this year, but with some resumption of strength afterward”.







May 24, 2014

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EUR/USD edges higher, eyes on 1.3650



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency remains buoyant on Monday, now lifting the EUR/USD to post fresh intraday highs around 1.3645/50.


EUR/USD in 2-day highs


The pair is partially trimming the recent sharp pullback to the vicinity of 1.3600 the figure, managing to recover the mid-1.3600s. Next of note in the euro area will be the M3 Money Supply figures due on Wednesday ahead of confidence/sentiment gauges on Thursday. However, the main scenario remains unchanged: market participants continue to assess the potential easing measures by the ECB, as we get closer to the June 5th meeting. “Despite oversold conditions, the EUR down-move still appears incomplete. However, waning downward momentum suggests that a sustained break below 1.3600 is unlikely for now. Only a move above 1.3655 will indicate that an interim low is place”, observed Que Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.


EUR/USD key levels


As of writing the pair is up 0.04% at 1.3635 and a surpass of 1.3658 (high May 23) would open the door to 1.3688 (high May 22) and finally 1.3723 (high May 21). On the flip side, the initial support aligns at 1.3616 (low May 23) followed by 1.3585 (low Feb.13) ahead of 1.3563 (low Feb.12).







May 26, 2014

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GBP/USD deflates to 1.6830



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is following the market mood on Monday, with the GBP/USD trading in a narrow range around 1.6830.


GBP/USD extends the correction


The pair seems to have found decent support near 1.6800 the figure, coming down from last week’s tops above the 1.6900 handle. Looking forward, it will be a light week in terms of data releases in the UK economy: BBA Mortgage Approvals (Tuesday), Nationwide Prices (Wednesday) and the Gfk Consumer Confidence survey (Friday). In the view of Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, “The fact that sterling retains its place at the best performing developed world currency over the past 12 months suggests there is a lot of good news priced-in. Long positions and the tendency for the market to allow itself to be carried away suggest that the pound is likely to be subject to bouts of profit-taking in the months ahead”.


GBP/USD levels to consider


As of writing the pair is up 0.03% at 1..6837 with the immediate resistance at 1.6875 (high May 23) ahead of 1.6917 (high May 22) and finally 1.6922 (high May 21). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.6813(low May 23) would expose 1.6802 (low May 20) and then 1.6784 (low May 16).







May 26, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Ukrainian stocks soar on succesful presidential election



FXStreet (Łódź) - As widely expected, billionaire chocolate tycoon Petro Poroshenko won a decisive victory in the Ukrainian presidential election, with former PM Yulia Tymoshenko finishing on a distant second position.


After the release of exit polls Poroshenko pledget to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine as soon as possible and announced that his first trip would be to the regions overcome by unrest, including the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, where pro-Russian separatists took control of governemnt buildings and many roads.. In the 1 million city of Donetsk nobody was allowed to vote and in Luhannsk most of the polling stations were closed.


Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also commmented on the Ukrainian vote, saying that Moscow was ready to hold talks with Poroshenko, but called for toning down the military operation against the separatists in the eastern part of the country.


"Taking into account the expression of will that has taken place, which we respect, we will be prepared to establish pragmatic, equitable dialogue on the existing foundation - by which I mean the fulfillment of all existing agreements, including in trade and the gas sector," Lavrov assured.


Poroshenko's victory was a positive development for both the Ukrainian and the Russian bond markets, where yeilds were seen dropping.


Russia’s Micex Index climbed by 1.2% to 1,455.59 while the Ukrainian Equities Index soared 4.9% to 1,233.73, the most worldwide. It was the highest level recorded by the index in two years.


Economic data


The Polish Central Statistical Office informed on Monday that on a monthly basis Unemployment has decreased to 13% in April from 13.5% recorded in March, slightly missing expectations of a decline to 12.9%.


Polish annual Retail Sales grew 8.4% in April, up from the 3.1% increase the previous month and below forecasts of +9.1%.


Turkish Foreign Arrivals jumped to 8.2% in April, from 0.6% in March, according to data published by TurkStat.


Technicals


The Ukrainian hryvnia was up 0.3% at 11.915 against the greenback on Monday.


On Friday, ahead of the elections, the USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index was strongly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 56 at the last close.


The Russian ruble was little changed against the central bank’s target dollar-euro basket at 39.7695, as well as against the dollar, at 34.17. It fell against the euro by 0.1% to 46.6355.


On Friday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index oversold. RSI was at 26 at the last close, and has climbed to 59 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 5355 pips, with ATR (14) shri







May 26, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Zuluaga wins the first round of the Colombian presidential election



FXStreet (Łódź) - Colombia held presidential elections on Sunday and exit polls suggest that Former Finance Minister Oscar Ivan Zuluaga has won in the first round with a 29.3% support, which is a blow for incumbent Juan Manuel Santos who received only a 25.7% backing. The runoff election will take place on June 15.


Both rivals for the post have similar policies, although Zuluaga calls for adopting a tougher stance against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). In case of his victory the ongoing peace talks could be broken off.


Economic data


On Friday Brazil released Current Account data which showed a widening to a $ -8.29B deficit in April from $ -6.25B in March, above expectations of a $ -6.70B result. Foreign Direct Investment increased to $5.23B from $5.00B, below forecasts of $5.40B.


Argentina's annual preliminary Industrial Production dropped 4% in April, up from the 5.9% decrease in March and beating expectations of a 6.1% fall.


Colombia's Trade Balance numbers revealed that the $-505.6M deficit seen in March narrowed to $-276.2M in April


On Monday Mexican flash Trade Balance data showed that the $1.027B surplus recorded in March narrowed to $0.510B in April, against consensus of a shift to a $-0.758B deficit.


Technicals


The Colombian peso was little changed at 1,909.76 against the dollar on Monday.


The Brazilian real on the other hand was boosted by the successful Ukrainian election and increased rose a three week low on Monday, strengthening by 0.1% 2.2217 against the greenback.


On Friday the USD/BRL daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish and the OB/OS Index was neutral. RSI stood at 47 at the last close, and has slid to 46 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 98 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 161 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.2999, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2228.







May 26, 2014

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ECB's Mersch: All three rates could be cut next week




FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking on panel in Tokyo on Wednesday ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch signaled that the ECB was comfortable with adopting a combination of conventional as well as unconventional measures at the upcoming meeting on June 5.


The ECB policymaker suggested that if the Governing Council decided to cut rates they would most probably affect all three rates: the main refi rate, the deposit as well as the marginal lending facility.


He said that the exchange rate plays an important role as far as inflation is concerned, but that the ECB didn't have an exchange rate objective.






May 28, 2014

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EUR/USD warming up for 1.3600?




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is extending its intraday decline on Wednesday, with the EUR/USD putting to the test the key support at 1.3600.


EUR/USD in multi-week lows


The pair is losing ground for the fourth consecutive week after hitting ytd tops just below the 1.4000 handle, drifting back to levels last seen in early February near the critical 1.3600 support. The demand for the EUR remains subdued amidst speculations of further easing by the ECB in its next meeting on June 5th. “EUR dipped overnight to retest the recent low at 1.3615. While the undertone is negative, the rebound from the low has resulted in a mixed outlook for today. Expect 1.3670/75 to limit any further recovery but a sustained down-move is likely only upon a clear break below 1.3610/15”, noted Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.


EUR/USD relevant levels


As of writing the pair is losing 0.16% at 1.3612 with the next support at 1.3585 (low Feb.13) ahead of 1.3563 (low Feb.12) and finally 1.3552 9low Feb.7). On the upside, a break above 1.3638 (high May 28) would open the door to 1.3669 (high May 27) and then 1.3672 (Tenkan Sen).






May 28, 2014

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ECB Financial Stability Review: Eurozone banks seen strengthening, but risks remain



FXStreet (Łódź) - In the ECB Financial Stability Review, released on Wednesday, the central bank said that the Eurozone economic recovery is expected to remain uneven and continue at a slow pace. Sentiment could be undermined by political tensions in Ukraine and a possible growth slowdown in China, the report stated.


It was stressed however that the advancing preparations for the banking union in the euro area and the financial institutions' efforts to strengthen their balance sheets have reduced stress in the banking sector considerably. Furthermore, the intensification of the search for yields has been beneficial for Eurozone banks and Member States so far.


The three main risks for financial stability in the Eurozone during the next 18 months, listed in the report include an “abrupt reversal of the global search for yield, amid pockets of illiquidity and likely asset price misalignments,” a “continuing weak bank profitability and balance sheet stress in a low inflation and low growth environment,” as well as “re-emergence of sovereign debt sustainability concerns, stemming from insufficient common backstops, stalling policy reforms, and a prolonged period of low nominal growth.”







May 28, 2014

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Another failing bounce in the EUR/USD; back below 1.3600



The EUR/USD failed again to bounce back above the 1.3600 area following the weak US GDP number and after a brief jump from 1.3585 to trade as high as 1.3625, the EUR/USD returned below the 1.3600 in the latest few minutes.


Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3599, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.3627 and low at 1.3586. EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bearish.


EUR/USD sentiment


"The hourly chart shows 20 SMA offering short term support around the figure and with a shy bullish slope, while indicators turn lower above their midlines," affirms Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet. "In the 4 hours chart technical indicators present a mild bearish tone while 20 SMA caps the upside around the daily high."


Jamie Coleman from FXBeat commented that the EUR/USD is back below 1.3600 as "the dollar index is taking another peek at 80.58/60. That level is key for further broad USD strength." Coleman points that the pair support "remains clustered in the 1.3550/70 zone; sovereign bids have been rumored ahead of that area this morning."







May 29, 2014

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NZD/USD tumbles to 0.8450



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD broke broke below 0.8470 and fell quickly to 0.8450 reaching the lowest price since March 12. The Kiwi is falling sharply across the board.


After bottoming the NZD/USD rebounded slightly and currently trades at 0.8468, down 0.29% for the day so far. The pair is falling for the second day in a row, accumulating a decline of a hundred pips.


NZD/USD technical outlook


The pair weakened earlier after being unable to hold above 0.8700 and accelerated to the downside after breaking short term support levels. Now headed toward the second daily close in a row below 0.8500, the outlook remains bearish.







May 29, 2014

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GBP/USD: recovery falters


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The recovery of the GBP/USD from 1-month lows proved to be short-lived after the Cable stalled at 1.6757 during the European session.


The GBP/USD failed to overcome the 1.6760 area and came under renewed pressure, retracing most of its intraday gains ahead of the American opening. No UK data is scheduled for today but a bunch of US key figures are on the calendar while 3 FOMC member are set to speak, which could offer some catalyst to the pair.


GBP/USD technical levels


The GBP/USD is currently trading at the 1.6725/30 zone, still 0.09% above its opening price, with immediate resistances lining up at 1.6757 (May 30 high), 1.6768 (50-day SMA) and 1.6815 (May 28 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.6692 (May 29 low), 1.6663 (100-day SMA) and 1.6603 (Apr 8 low).








May 30, 2014

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EUR/USD edging higher, eyes on 1.3620


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency looks to put further distance from the key support at 1.3600 on Friday, taking the EUR/USD to test the upper band around 1.3615/20.


EUR/USD indifferent after data


The pair has practically paid no attention to today’s mixed results from the German retail sales and lower than expected consumer prices in Italy, managing to keep the trade above the 1.3600 handle so far. However, the heavy trade is set to prevail, as the ECB meeting is closer. “Recent euro weakness in advance of next week’s ECB policy meeting highlights that monetary easing expectations have likely already been discounted. For euro weakness to accelerate after next week’s meeting, it would likely require the ECB to either adopt some form of asset purchases or indicate that they are becoming a more realistic policy option in the near-term”, suggested the research team at BTMU.


EUR/USD key levels


At the moment the pair is up 0.08% at 1.3614 and a break above 1.3638 (high May 28) would open the door to 1.3644 (200-d MA) and finally 1.3655 (Tenkan Sen). On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 1.3586 (low May 29) followed by 1.3585 (low Feb.13) and then 1.3563 (low Feb.12).








May 30, 2014

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EUR/USD: recovery capped by 200-day SMA





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD saw a short-lived spike to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session but lacked follow-through and surrendered gains.


The dollar also managed to temper losses after the US Chicago PMI came in better-than-expected in May. The PMI rose to 65.5 rather than the expected fall to 61.0 from 63.0 points scored in April.


The EUR/USD reached 2-day high of 1.3638 but was halted by the 200-day SMA. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3620, still up 0.15% on the day. However, the euro is set to end the week little changed and the month with a 1.7% loss, pressured by perspectives the ECB might ease its policy further when it meets on Jun 5th.


The ECB meeting is not the only major event next week. The Eurozone will release CPI figures and the US will publish the nonfarm payrolls report.


EUR/USD technical levels


In terms of technical levels, if the EUR/USD breaks decisively above 1.3638 (200-day SMA), next resistances could be found at 1.3668 (May 27 high) and 1.3700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3585 (May 29 low), 1.3561 (feb 12 low) and 1.3520 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2757/1.3993).








May 30, 2014

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AUD/USD keeps session lows





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar remains unable to pick up pace on Monday, confining the AUD/USD to the lower band of the intraday range around 0.9260.


AUD/USD hurt by data


Poor data from Building Permits in Oz during April prompted investors to sell the Aussie overnight, sending spot to session lows just above 0.9240. Further data showed TD Securities Inflation generally in line with expectations (2.9% YoY, 0.3% MoM) although the release had no incidence on the pair. “The key question is whether domestic data can save the Aussie dollar from sliding iron ore prices. .. But 0.9200/10 remains very strong support, having held since March. And if the RBA’s language on Tue is little changed and Q1 GDP is near our expectations (3.2% y/y), the Aussie probably won’t test that key support. Broad range still 0.92-0.94, albeit with most action likely to be in the lower half of the range near term”, observed the research team at Westpac Global Strategy Group.


AUD/USD levels to watch


As of writing the pair is losing 0.57% at 0.9258 with the next support at 0.9210 (low May 29) ahead of 0.9208 (low May 21) and then 0.9179 (200-d MA). On the flip side, a break above 0.9303 (50-d MA) would open the door to 0.9330 (high May 30) and finally 0.9336 (high May 20).







June 02, 2014

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Session Recap: Euro weighed by PMIs





FXStreet (Córdoba) - It was a lively session for the Euro amid Eurozone PMIs releases as investors await the ECB meeting Thursday.


The EUR/USD was weighed by disappointing PMIs across the Eurozone and soft German inflation figures ahead of the Eurozone CPI tomorrow. The EUR/USD remains vulnerable near recent lows ahead of teh European Central Bank policy meeting Thursday.


Consensus is now calling for cuts of the 3 main rates. However, with much of this move already priced in, EUR bears might want to take profits if the bank does not surprise.


The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.3593 before quickly bouncing back above 1.3600. Elsewhere, majors had a quiet session. The GBP/USD was steady around 1.6750 while the USD/JPY steadied around 102.00 after rising during Asian hours. The USD/CHF moved in tandem (although inversely) with the EUR/USD and reached a 5-day high of 0.8985 before pulling back.


Meanwhile, the Aussie is among the worst performers weighed by weak Aus building permits. The AUD/USD hit a 4-day low of 0.9242 before bouncing slightly.


During the New York session watch for US Markit manufacturing PMI, the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending.


Main Headlines in Europe:


What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank


European stocks open broadly higher


Fed's Evans: Inflation expected to remain below 2% for some time


Germany: PMI Manufacturing slides to 52.3 in May


EMU: PMI Manufacturing drops more than expected in May







June 02, 2014

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Germany: CPI (May) at 0.9% YoY




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The preliminary May CPI in Germany showed that consumer prices expanded at an annual pace of 0.9%, missing forecasts for 1.1% gain and lower than the 1.3% previous. On a monthly basis, prices contracted 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected. The HICP rose 0.6% over the last twelve months and contracted 0.3% inter-month.








June 02, 2014

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EUR shorts increased last week - Societe Generale




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, noted the increase in EUR short positions, according to the last CFTC report.


Key Quotes


"CFTC positioning data for last Tuesday show that EUR shorts increased. They are back to levels which preceded the Euro bottoming-out after the last ECB rate cut in November, though relative to a longer-term history the short position is small."



"A 10-bp cut in both Refi and Deposit rates is universally expected this week, and the market is merrily muttering about what more the ECB can do. The result is that we may see a lack of trend for the next few days."


"SG Economists are looking for a targeted LTRO, an end to SMP sterilisation, and a EUR 300bn asset purchase programme, targeted at the private sector. That would amount to a slightly more aggressive package than the market is priced for."


"This would be risk-friendly, helping peripheral and financial sector debt and equity, rather than moving EUR/USD very far, though we remain seller of the Euro vs PLN, TRY, GBP and NOK and a short-covering rally in EUR/USD, would be a chance to sell. In the meantime, we watch peripheral European PMIs this morning and preliminary German CPI data for May. On which note, so far, a soft Saxony figure."








June 02, 2014

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Indo-Investasi.com, is since 2008, one of the prime online destinations for information and discussion about forex trading, and online investments.

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Financial Disclaimer: Trading FOREX on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for everyone. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Please see our Terms & Conditions for more information.
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