OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Gartman: Why I'm Selling Japanese Yen

The Japanese government has given a "sell" signal for the yen, Dennis Gartman, editor of The Gartman Letter, said Wednesday on CNBC.

On "Fast Money," Gartman said he was short of yen in US dollar, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar terms.

Over the past six or seven months, Gartman added, the trade is working out.

"I think it's abundantly clear that this new administration has made it very clear it intends to force the Bank of Japan to supply Japanese yen in unlimited terms," he said. ""I can't remember ever having heard that before.

(More From CNBC: Forget Stocks? Why Shilling's Backing Bonds)

"You have to remember, a government has a hard time strengthening its currency. But governments can very easily weaken their currencies simply by printing them. And when the Japanese said they're going to print them in an unlimited fashion, you have to believe them."

Gartman said that Japan was "going to take rates to negative numbers before it's done."

A decline in domestic consumption for Japan meant that its options were limited. "

"They're going to have to continue to export goods and services out of Japan, and the only way they can do it is by devaluing the yen," Gartman said.

"What do I care whether they can or cannot create inflation as long as they are going to create more yen? This is the first time we've seen an authority in Japan use the term 'unlimited,'" he said.

An alternate trade was to buy Japanese equities, Gartman said.

"I think the NIkkei is on its way to 15,000 over the course of the next several years," he added. "If you don't like trading currencies, trade the Nikkei because that's going to be a corollary to the Japanese yen itself."

Dec 27, 2012

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -European sentiment boosts S&P 500

U.S. stock futures are following Europe higher this morning as the Japanese yen weakens and investors bet that politicians in Washington will address the fiscal cliff.

The S&P 500 is indicated to open higher by about one-quarter of a percent. France's CAC-40 is leading gains across the Atlantic with a gain of more than two-thirds of a percent, followed by London's FTSE-100.

The bullish sentiment has increased in the last hour as the euro pushes higher. Japan's Nikkei was the top winner in Asia overnight, climbing almost 1 percent.

There are still no clear signs that U.S. lawmakers will reach a deal with President Obama to avert tax increases and spending cuts at year-end. But the risk has been well known for months and investors appear increasingly comfortable that, even if the situation isn't fixed immediately, it will be addressed by early 2013 after the new Congress is seated.

Worries about the fiscal cliff had caused the S&P 500 to pull back from multi-year highs between mid-October and mid-November. It's been rebounding since then and has been attempting to build support above its 50-day moving average in the last two weeks, which could be leading some chart watchers to expect further gains.

In addition to the political news, the market has a full docket of economic data today. Weekly jobless claims will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by new home sales and consumer confidence at 10 a.m. ET.

Foreign-exchange markets are painting a bullish picture this morning, while commodities are more negative. Currencies that tend to follow risk appetite--the euro, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar--are all higher. The Japanese yen is also lower across the board, which tends to support equities because investors use it as a safe haven.

Oil and copper, however, are modestly lower. Precious metals are down by almost half a percent, and most agricultural foodstuffs are posting small declines

Dec 27, 2012

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 12.27.2012

Prices moved lower as expected after putting in a Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at 0.8470, the February 29 high. Sellers pushed through support in the 0.8317-55 area and are now testing the bottom of a rising channel set from late July (0.8191). A break below that exposes 0.8052. The 0.8317-55 region is now acting as near-term resistance.

Dec 27, 2012

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 12.31.2012

Prices are probing below channel mid-line support at 1.3223 after putting in a bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick, with a break lower targeting the formation’s bottom at 1.3105. Near-term resistance is at 1.3283, the May 1 high, with a push above that exposing the March 27 top at 1.3384.

Dec 31, 2012

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: Dollar, Yen Fall as Markets React to Fiscal Cliff Deal

Talking Points

• US Dollar, Yen Plunge as Risk Appetite Swells on “Fiscal Cliff” Compromise
  
• Status-Quo Eurozone PMI, German CPI Data Unlikely to Derail Momentum
  
• Risk-On Mood May Find Added Fuel in December’s ISM Manufacturing Data
  

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen plunged overnight after the US Congress reached a last-minute deal averting the so-called “fiscal cliff”, scattering fears of a sharp austerity shock in the world’s largest economy and denting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The Senate voted in favor of the compromise measure by an overwhelming 89-8 margin in the early hours of Tuesday morning in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives followed suit by the evening, passing the measure with a 257-167 vote.

The so-called American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 delayed “sequestration” budget cuts created in 2011 by two months to give additional time for negotiation. Meanwhile, a broad-based increase in taxes was averted, instead allowing rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for families to increase from 35 to 39.6 percent. The bill also marked a phase-out of tax deductions and credits on incomes over $250,000 and the expiry of the payroll tax cut put in place in 2010.

European stock index futures are trading sharply higher in late Asian trade, hinting the risk-on mood is likely to carry forward as traders return from the New Year holiday.

Final revisions of December’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI data set and a preliminary look at German CPI headline the economic calendar.

No major changes are expected on either front, seemingly leaving little to stand in the way of existing momentum. The US ISM Manufacturing report may reinforce the chipper mood later in the day, with forecasts pointing to a return to expansionary territory with a print at 50.4 in December after a disappointing 49.5 result in the prior month.

Jan 2, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Strategy: Australian Dollar Sold Against Canadian Counterpart

Strategy: Short AUDCAD at 1.0340, Targeting 1.0260

Prices retesting support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a previously broken rising channel having found initial support at 1.0260 marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. The overall fundamental backdrop appears to favor weakness, with priced-in expectations suggesting the RBA will continue to cut interest rates over the coming year while the BOC remains on hold.

The recent bounce has improved risk/reward parameters and we will now enter short, initially aiming for a return to the 1.0260 level. A stop-loss will be triggered on a daily close above 1.0420.

Mar 07, 2012 11:50

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: US Dollar Resilient Despite Sharp S&P 500 Advance

THE TAKEAWAY:

The US Dollar managed to hold up near familiar technical levels despite a sharp rally in the S&P 500 that might have been expected to sink the haven currency.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing above resistance at 10044, the 32.8%Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 10064. A break above the latter level aims for the 50% level at 10082. Initial support is at 9995, the 23.6% expansion, with a reversal below that exposing a

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen plunged overnight after the US Congress reached a last-minute deal averting the so-called “fiscal cliff”, scattering fears of a sharp austerity shock in the world’s largest economy and denting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The Senate voted in favor of the compromise measure by an overwhelming 89-8 margin in the early hours of Tuesday morning in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives followed suit by the evening, passing the measure with a 257-167 vote.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher in the aftermath of a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, taking out resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-September and exposing 1466.10. A break above that exposes the 1471.60-1474.90 area marked by the October 5 and September 14 swing highs. Initial support is at 1450.10, the December 19 top, with a break below that exposing the trend line at 1441.20 and former resistance at 1432.90.

Jan 3, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: US Dollar Resilient Despite Sharp S&P 500 Advance

THE TAKEAWAY:

The US Dollar managed to hold up near familiar technical levels despite a sharp rally in the S&P 500 that might have been expected to sink the haven currency.

US DOLLAR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS– Prices are testing above resistance at 10044, the 32.8%Fibonacci expansion. This barrier is reinforced by rising trend line support-turned-resistance at 10064. A break above the latter level aims for the 50% level at 10082. Initial support is at 9995, the 23.6% expansion, with a reversal below that exposing a

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen plunged overnight after the US Congress reached a last-minute deal averting the so-called “fiscal cliff”, scattering fears of a sharp austerity shock in the world’s largest economy and denting demand for the go-to safe haven currencies. The Senate voted in favor of the compromise measure by an overwhelming 89-8 margin in the early hours of Tuesday morning in Washington, DC. The House of Representatives followed suit by the evening, passing the measure with a 257-167 vote.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Prices launched sharply higher in the aftermath of a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, taking out resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-September and exposing 1466.10. A break above that exposes the 1471.60-1474.90 area marked by the October 5 and September 14 swing highs. Initial support is at 1450.10, the December 19 top, with a break below that exposing the trend line at 1441.20 and former resistance at 1432.90.

Jan 3, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Pullback Sought for Long

Prices have turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick. Sellers have now cleared support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-November (now at 1.3091) as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (1.3060), exposing the 50% level at 1.2983.

A drop beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1.2907. The 1.3060 level has been recast as resistance. We will look for the pullback to yield a long entry in line with our 2013 outlook.

Jan 4, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: Global stocks tick up, dollar pares gains after U.S. payrolls

NEW YORK (Reuters) - World shares rose and the U.S. dollar pared gains on Friday after a payrolls report scaled back expectations of a change in U.S. monetary policy.

The pace of U.S. job growth slowed slightly in December, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 7.8 percent, but details of the Labor Department's U.S. employment report also pointed to a slow but steady recovery.

The stubbornly high unemployment rate was unlikely to make the Federal Reserve rethink its easy-money policies, which have been propping up the recovery. Indications that the Fed could change its easy stance on asset purchases erased gains in stocks on Thursday and pushed benchmark Treasury yields to eight-month highs.

"When it comes to Fed policy, this report should keep (it)steady," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital markets in New York.

He said with the payrolls data "basically where it was when the Fed decided to do more quantitative easing last month," a change in policy was not in the horizon.

An index of global shares was on track to post its best week in six, and its sixth week of gains in the last seven, as a last-minute budget deal in the United States and strengthening global economic data drew investors into riskier assets.

The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) rose 16.55 points or 0.12 percent, to 13,407.91. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) gained 3.54 points or 0.24 percent, to 1,462.91. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 0.87 points or 0.03 percent, to 3,101.43.

An MSCI index of global shares <.MIWD00000PUS> rose 0.2 percent and was up nearly 3 percent for the week, making it its best since late November.

The U.S. dollar pared gains versus the euro and came off a near 2-1/2 year high against the yen after the jobs data bolstered expectations the Fed will not tighten monetary policy anytime soon.

The data "will if anything push out the date for an end to QE, represents solidly risk-positive numbers and will lead to some minor squeeze on recent U.S. dollar longs," said Alan Ruskin, head of G10 FX strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York.

The yen has fallen in recent weeks as investors bet the new government will push the Bank of Japan to weaken the currency by implementing aggressive economic stimulus.

Tentative signs that the euro zone economy may have passed the worst of its downturn also supported risk assets.

Markit's Euro zone Composite PMI, which gauges business activity across thousands of the region's companies, rose in December to 47.2, from 46.5 in November - below the 50 line which divides growth from contraction but at its highest level since March last year.

Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued their climb, but sharply cut gains after hitting a more than eight-month high of 1.9755 percent before the jobs report.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last down 5/32, with the yield at 1.9274 percent.

Bund futures cut losses after slipping over half a point but were still adding to recent losses. They were last down 0.4 percent at 142.95.

Brent crude shed 0.4 percent to $111.66 a barrel while U.S. crude was down 0.1 percent at $92.80.

Jan 4, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 01.04.2013

Prices have turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Gravestone Doji candlestick. Sellers have now cleared support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-November (now at 1.3091) as well as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (1.3060), exposing the 50% level at 1.2983.

A drop beneath that aims for the 61.8% Fib at 1.2907. The 1.3060 level has been recast as resistance.

Jan 4, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex: Japanese Yen Extremely Prone to Reversal With or Without Risk

Japanese Yen Extremely Prone to Reversal With or Without Risk

Experienced traders know that the probabilities in picking a major top or bottom in markets are exceptionally low - and therefore, the pursuit of timing exact turns is foolhardy. That said, extremes cannot last. And, the Japanese yen is certainly pushing the envelope. This past week, the yen crosses advanced another 1.3 (for CHFJPY) to 4.0 percent (NZDJPY) to ratchet fresh multi-month and multi-year highs. That is yet another incredible extension for a six-month run that has seen the yen drop between 12.8 (USDJPY) to 21.2 percent (EURJPY). A cross-the-board currency move of this magnitude is unusual enough, but it is the consistency of the drive that should really unnerve traders.

The most important factor to consider for the yen moving forward is that there are both active and passive market forces that can spur the yen to change course and see a hearty rally (yen cross tumble). For a passive driver, there is the considerable influence of a natural correction. With a USDJPY climb of nearly 1100 pips in the span of 3 months without even a 2 percent pullback, we are faced with an extremely one-sided market with otherwise tepid supports for continued advance. Considering speculative participation (measured through open interest in S&P 500 futures) is just off 15-year lows and carry yields are at historically anemic levels, there is extreme dependency on a sustained rise in risk taking. If speculative appetites were to level out, it could be enough to spark profit taking or catalyze opportunistic bears to shake test convictions.

A natural correction is highly probable. Though, alone it would likely be a restrained catalyst for a yen advance. To really add heat to a downturn on the crosses, the market needs an active catalyst. The most prolific and simultaneously concentrated spark for this particular currency would be a risk aversion move. Risk trends – measured through benchmarks like the S&P 500 – have maintained a persistent advance these past weeks and months, and the result for the yen has been clear. However, should we see the bite of panic start to seep into the speculative ranks – finding exceptional risk taking in for non-existent returns – the yen crosses would certainly be swept up in the move.

Looking for an ignition point for fear, we have seen the greatest threats to global financial stability (the US Fiscal Cliff, Greece’s lead on the EU debt crisis, the possible exit of global central bank stimulus) back down one-by-one. Yet, each of these outcomes was expected by the market and the underlying issues of thin ‘return’ versus tremendously under-appreciated ‘risk’ remain. In the end, it is the catalyst that investors haven’t had time to prepare for that often carries the market furthest.

The market bearing on whether USDJPY puts in for another 2 percent climb or dramatic reversal next week will no doubt rest with the more severe imbalances of risk trends, but it is important to also remember the underlying yen fundamentals to this picture as well. Yields on the 10-year JGB this past week hit their highest level since September 18 and the 30-year tagged a 13-month high. This isn’t a carry trade advantage (the carry differential with its counterparts is still growing). Rather, this shows a fading demand for the safe haven government debt that lasts only as Japanese investors are comfortable enough to hold risk. Stimulus is another, considerable factor in this multi-month move. New Finance Minister Aso has said the government will present its plan for further stimulus before the BoJ’s next meeting (January 22). And, speaking of the BoJ, Governor Shirakawa (resolutely pushing back against government involvement in monetary policy decision) will see his term end by the beginning of April.

Given the precarious nature of all the factors necessary to maintain the yen’s current pace of decline, it is highly likely that we see a natural correction. However, to be clear, I am still a long-term USDJPY bull. Whether we look to financial and fiscal crisis or a return to risk with carry, the Japanese yen is still heavily over-valued against its benchmark counterpart. – JK

Jan 5, 2013

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Edited January 5, 2013 by OctaFX_Farid

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com -Forex News: Dollar Posts Biggest Weekly Rally in 6 Months

• Dollar Posts Biggest Weekly Rally in 6 Months
  
• Euro Struggles Before ECB Adds Weight
  
• Japanese Yen Crosses Extend Rally to New Highs
  
• Canadian Dollar: FX Traders Pay Little Heed to Strong Jobs Numbers
  
• British Pound Excessive Tumble May Spur Rebound
  
• Swiss Franc: Safety Flows and SNB Reserves Still Issues
  
• Gold Drops For Sixth Week, Longest Slide in 8 Years
  

Dollar Posts Biggest Weekly Rally in 6 Months

Market conditions can supersede both fundamentals and technicals – a truism we witnessed this past week. Typically, the dollar’s position as the preferred reserve currency would have leveraged a selloff with the S&P 500 posting its biggest rally in 13 months. In fact, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) enjoyed its strongest advance in six months over the same period and closed at its highest level since July 25. This unusual correlation between underlying risk trends and the safe haven dollar was facilitated by both the extremely low levels of speculative participation through the passage of the holiday period as well as an intense focus on the on the outcome of the US Fiscal Cliff.

Though pushing the decision beyond the technical deadline, the US government managed to hammer out a solution to the impending doom of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts. Naturally, removing the risk of a sure push into recession for the world’s largest economy lifts a serious cloud of uncertainty and bolsters risk appetite – thereby driving equities and other ‘riskier’ assets higher. However, the dollar also benefits from this turn as the threat of a critical sovereign credit rating downgrade (a move that hits at the dollar’s core value as the benchmark currency) evaporates as well. That being said, the positive correlation between risk trends and greenback is unlikely to last for long. A relief rally for the dollar via reduced rate cut fears has an exceptionally short shelf life. That doesn’t mean we should expect the dollar to simply tumble into a new bear trend though. The ‘solution’ offered up for the Fiscal Cliff, was merely a band aid that carries us over to the bigger threat of a standoff on raising the debt ceiling.

The Treasury runs out of extraordinary means for preventing the US to breaching its debt cap sometime in mid-February and the so-called ‘sequestration’ – or $110 billion in automatic spending cuts – is set for March 1. This can easily set risk trends on fire once again and thereby benefit the safe haven status of the dollar. The deciding factor is whether investors look ahead or enjoys the brief calm.

As we establish the next phase of the US fiscal crisis, there are other considerations for risk and dollar traders to consider. Though not fully engaged, there is a shift in comfortable expectations for Fed stimulus to remain a driving force for years into the future. After the Fed minutes this past week showed growing support for the $85 billion-per-month QE purchases of MBS and Treasuries by or before the end of 2013, the tepid growth outlook and extreme lows in investment returns look far more daunting to the long-term investor. For a more concise time frame, we will watch the reaction to the beginning of the 4Q earnings season with Alcoa reporting on Tuesday and Wells Fargo on Friday.

Euro Struggles Before ECB Adds Weight

A rebound in risk appetite often has a forgiving influence for currencies or assets that maintain a questionable fundamental outlook. We have seen the general rise in sentiment tides lift the troubled euro numerous times in the past, but the currency showed little of that strength over the past week. Aside from EURJPY, the euro lost ground against all of its freely-floating, major counterparts. This may be a sign that the relief of Greece avoiding catastrophe has been spent. Another consideration that is often overlooked – the euro’s benchmark Libor and Treasury rates are lower than its US counterparts’, which may actually drive carry interests away from the euro. Looking to the week ahead, there is plenty of event risk in sentiment measures (investor, consumer, economy), an ESM bond sale, a number of meetings for officials and Greece unemployment. Most euro traders’ top concern though is the ECB rate decision Thursday. The risk is for further cuts to rates or growth forecasts.

Japanese Yen Crosses Extend Rally to New HighsThe yen’s tumble continued with little check this past week. Though the foundation of risk trends were somewhat dubious, the safe haven and carry funding currency didn’t shy away from a hearty drop against all of its counterparts. Between a 1.3 percent drop against the Euro (a weakened currency) and 4.0 percent plunge versus the New Zealand currency, this tumble is extremely stretched. The implications of a natural correction would find serious leverage should a bout of risk aversion kick in. If fear rises, there isn’t much carry to in these crosses to buffer it.

Canadian Dollar: FX Traders Pay Little Heed to Strong Jobs Numbers

Once again, the Canadian docket would impress on employment. The payrolls figure roundly beat consensus with a 39,800- position increase and the jobless s rate unexpectedly dropped its lowest level since December 2008 (7.1 percent). However, this times, the Canadian dollar (‘loonie’) paid little mind to the positive report. The NFPs report at the same time offered some distraction, but there is further an issue that the market is growing acclimated to ‘beats’ by this data series. Once again, loonie traders must focus on risk trends and symbiotic USD trends.

British Pound Excessive Tumble May Spur Rebound

Over the past three days, the sterling has enjoyed the worst performance amongst the majors. Whether against high yielding counterparts or safe havens like the dollar, the pound was the most afflicted of its counterparts. This intense decline has some grounding in data (like the Services PMI) and the lagging pace of government bond yield growth; yet it is still arguably overdone. Be careful of a speculative reversal.

Swiss Franc: Safety Flows and SNB Reserves Still Issues

Though the panicked drive behind the flight to safety for European capital has let up, the franc is still a shining beacon for investors and citizens that realize the larger issues are far from resolved. The SNB’s report of its foreign currency reserves this coming week will be interpreted for its influence on keeping the franc suppressed. Traders should keep a vigilant eye on EURCHF for any serious changes in interpretations.

Gold Drops For Sixth Week, Longest Slide in 8 Years

Thanks to a late-day rebound this past Friday, gold closed out the week with a mere 0.01 percent decline. Nevertheless, that puts the metal in the red and notches up its consecutive bearish tally to six - its longest tumble in eight years. Futures volume behind the decline is still light, which means the move isn’t panicked (and thereby prone to reversal). The US dollar and debt ceiling will be necessary drivers moving forward.

Jan 5, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 01.07.2013

Prices are testing resistance in the 0.8317-55 area, with a break higher exposing the February 29 high at 0.8470.Near-term rising channel support is now at 0.8206. A drop below that aims for a horizontal pivot support level at 0.8052.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Jan 7, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 01.07.2013

Prices put in a Hammer above rising trend line support set from late July, hinting a rebound may be ahead. Initial resistance is at 1.3150, marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A break above that aims for the 38.2% level at 1.3244. Alternatively, a drop through the trend line (now at 1.2994) aims for the December 7 low at 1.2875.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Jan 7, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Commodity Currencies, Yen Lead Against Weak Euro

ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

After Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report did little to support the US Dollar in the post-December Federal Reserve meeting Minutes trading world, risk-appetite has seemingly steadied if not contracted to start the first full week of the year.

The Japanese Yen has posted a solid rebound versus the world’s reserve currency as well as the European currencies despite gapping lower to start the week, as news headlines over the weekend suggested that new Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to endorse a +2.0% yearly inflation target at its next meeting on January 22.

Mainly, the Yen’s rebound can be credited to extremely oversold technical condition, with many Yen-crosses posting multi-month or multi-year highs in the past week. The market also remains biased short the Yen, with the most recent CFTC’s COT report showing net non-commercial futures positioning holding near its lowest levels since July 2007, despite short covering into the end of December. Fundamentally and psychologically speaking, any perceived shift in BoJ policy leading up to the meeting could lead to continued Yen weakness from now until then, whereas the Yen could strengthen once policy is solidified (similar to the US Dollar strengthening after the Fed announced QE3 in mid-September).

Away from the safe havens, the commodity currencies remain well-supported with the New Zealand Dollar notably outperforming, while the Euro has led the European currencies lower (the Swiss Franc is a follower given the EURCHF floor). This more or less has to do with the expectation that the European Central Bank will not implement any new policies this week. As I expressed in the Euro’s Weekly Trading Forecast, each meeting following the initial OMT announcement has led to greater and greater weakness; and now that the market is no longer short the Euro versus the US Dollar, there is significantly more room for weakness in the EURUSD.

Taking a look at European credit, weakness in peripheral bonds has weighed on the Euro today. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 1.687% (+4.9-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 2.350% (+3.8-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.291% (+3.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.044% (+2.8-bps); higher yields imply lower prices.

Jan 7, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Eurozone unemployment at record high

Businesses in the eurozone may be feeling more confident but there's no sign of that translating into better employment prospects yet.

Eurostat data published Tuesday showed unemployment in the 17-nation eurozone hit a record high of 11.8% in November, leaving 18.8 million people without work - two million more than a year ago.

At nearly 27%, Spain has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union, and youth unemployment is more than twice as high at 56%. Thousands of Spanish bank employees will lose their jobs as a result of an EU-backed bailout of Spanish banks. Only Greece, which is facing a sixth year of recession, has a greater proportion of young people out of work.

The latest unemployment figures coincided with the release of a survey of European Union businesses and consumers which showed sentiment in December picked up across all sectors of the eurozone economy, with the exception of retail. The Economic Sentiment Indicator hit its highest level since July.

But the sentiment survey also suggested Europe's jobless blight will continue well into 2013. Industrial managers expect hiring to improve, but the retail, services and construction sectors could experience further declines in hiring. That's consistent with consumers' gloomy view about their chances of finding work.

Recent data have suggested the region's purchasing managers are becoming less pessimistic though. Financial data firm Markit's index was at a 9-month high in December, although the reading still reflected declining activity in manufacturing and services rather than growth.

The eurozone economy shrank in the second and third quarters of 2012, and official data due next month are expected to confirm a contraction in fourth quarter output.

Forecasts for 2013 are not much better, ranging from stagnation to another year of recession as governments continue to grapple with the fallout of the credit crisis, cutting spending and raising taxes to rein in budget deficits.

Eurozone consumers have become more cautious. Retail sales rose just 0.1% in November from the previous month, according to data published Tuesday, and were 2.6% lower than November 2011. Sales of food, drink and tobacco were particularly weak.

Hopes that stronger growth in Asia and the U.S. could spark a eurozone recovery also took a knock, as Germany said its exports fell 3.4% in November, from the previous month, and were flat year over year.

Jan 8, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Euro Hit by Growth Fears, Pound to Rally on Sticky Inflation

Talking Points

• Euro: ECB to Preserve ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach Despite Deepening Recession
  
• British Pound: Threatens Bullish Trend Ahead of U.K. Inflation Report
  
• U.S. Dollar: Fed Rhetoric on Tap, Chairman Bernanke in Focus
  

Euro: ECB to Preserve ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach Despite Deepening Recession

The EURUSD gave back the overnight advance to 1.3403 as industrial outputs in Europe fell 0.3% in November versus forecasts for a 0.2% print, and the short-term pullback in the exchange rate may turn into a larger correction as the deepening recession dampens the appeal of the single currency.

As the debt crisis drags on the real economy, Fitch Ratings expects the euro-area to contract 0.1% in 2013, but we may see a more pronounced downturn in Europe amid record-high unemployment paired with the ongoing slack in private sector activity. Nevertheless, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Peter Praet talked down bets for a rate cut as he endorsed a ‘wait and see’ approach for monetary policy, but we may see the Governing Council keep the door open to lower the benchmark interest rate further as the economic downturn threatens price stability.

In turn, the ECB’s monthly report on tap for later this week may continue to highlight the downside risks for growth and inflation, but we may see the central bank strike a more neutral tone for the policy horizon as European policy makers increase their efforts to address the debt crisis.

As the relative strength index on the EURUSD falls back from a high of 66, the downward trend on the oscillator may foreshadow a bigger downturn in the exchange rate, and we may see the bearish divergence threaten the ascending channel carried over from the previous year as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area deteriorates.

British Pound: Threatens Bullish Trend Ahead of U.K. Inflation Report

The British Pound pared the rebound from the previous week, with the GBPUSD slipping to a low of 1.6036, but the sterling may regain its footing over the next 24-hours of trading as the economic docket is expected to show stick price growth in the U.K.

Indeed, the headline reading for inflation is expected to increase an annualized 2.7% for the third month in December, but an unexpected uptick in the consumer price index may spark a sharp rally in the British Pound as the Bank of England (BoE) adopts a hawkish tone for monetary policy. As the central bank sees above-target inflation over the policy horizon, we anticipate the Monetary Policy Committee slowly move away from its easing cycle, and we may see the central bank start to discuss a tentative exit strategy as the U.K. emerges from the double-dip recession.

However, as the GBPUSD comes up against the lower bounds of the upward trending channel dating back to June, a move back towards the 1.6000 figure would dampen our bullish forecast for the sterling, and we will keep a close eye on the inflation report as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

U.S. Dollar: Fed Rhetoric on Tap, Chairman Bernanke in Focus

The greenback extended the rebound from Friday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to a high of 10,077, and the reserve currency may appreciate further during the North American trade should we see Fed officials scale back their dovish tone for monetary policy.

As the economic docket remains fairly light throughout the U.S. session, we should see risk sentiment dictate price action for most of the day, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may increase the appeal of the USD as the FOMC takes note of a more broad-based recovery. Indeed, all eyes will be on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as he’s scheduled to speak on the economylater today, and we may see the central bank head talk down speculation for more quantitative easing as the region gets on a more sustainable path.

Jan 14, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex Trading: Buying EUR/USD and EUR/AUD Dipsn

Trading focus this week is on the EURUSD and EURAUD, specifically on identifying the end of corrective weakness (buying dips).

Eventual EURUSD targets extend to 13800-13900 and 14400 and risk (for longs) is the 1/10 low at 13038. Former resistance at 13270-13308 is now estimated support. In Friday’s DailyFX PLUS video, I mentioned the 5 day average as a trigger point. The 5 day average is only at 13220 today but that level will increase quickly with each passing day.

If 2013 is the ‘year of the breakout’, then the EURAUD is probably next in line. A late December break above the inverse head and shoulders neckline proved false and price is back testing the line again today. Near term support has been reached at 12626 (intraday Friday pivot). The decline from last night’s high is probably the first wave of a 3 wave corrective drop. 12530/70 would be an ideal level to look for a low if reached. I’ll be closely following the near term pattern and updating via Twitter @JamieSaettele.

What many really care about I’m sure if the EURJPY. Those that wish to fight this (and I’m looking to do just that) may wish to do so on strength into 11967 with a stop above last night’s high and a 11760 target.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

Jan 14, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - FOREX Trading: EUR/USD and EUR/AUD Corrective Weakness Underway

FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations

Trading focus this week is on the EURUSD and EURAUD, specifically on identifying the end of corrective weakness (buying dips).

Eventual EURUSD targets extend to 13800-13900 and 14400 and risk (for longs) is the 1/10 low at 13038. Former resistance at 13270-13308 is now estimated support. In Friday’s DailyFX PLUS video, I mentioned the 5 day average as a trigger point. The 5 day average is only at 13220 today but that level will increase quickly with each passing day.

If 2013 is the ‘year of the breakout’, then the EURAUD is probably next in line. A late December break above the inverse head and shoulders neckline proved false and price is back testing the line again today. Near term support has been reached at 12626 (intraday Friday pivot). The decline from last night’s high is probably the first wave of a 3 wave corrective drop. 12530/70 would be an ideal level to look for a low if reached. I’ll be closely following the near term pattern and updating via Twitter @JamieSaettele.

What many really care about I’m sure if the EURJPY. Those that wish to fight this (and I’m looking to do just that) may wish to do so on strength into 11967 with a stop above last night’s high and a 11760 target.

EURUSD - Daily

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jan 14, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: US Dollar Classic Technical Report 01.15.2013

Prices turned lower from resistance at the top of a rising channel set from mid-September, taking out near-term support at smaller channel bottom to expose the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 10038. A further push below that aims for the 61.8% level at 10009. Near-term resistance is at 10066, the 23.6% retracement, followed by the channel bottom at 10091.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Jan 15, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 01.15.2013

Prices broke above 50% Fibonacci expansion resistance at 1.3320 to test the 61.8% level at 1.3397. A Star candle warns of a possible turn lower in the works but confirmation is lacking for now. The 1.3220 level has been recast as near-term support, with a drop below that aiming for the 38.2% expansion at 1.3244. Alternatively, a push through resistance targets the 76.4% Fib at 1.3492.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Jan 15, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Classic Technical Report 01.16.2013

Prices turned lower as expected, completing a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Initial support is at 1.3243, with a break below that targeting the 1.3119-29 area. Near-term resistance is at 1.3403, the January 14 high.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

Jan 16, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - FOREX ANALYSIS: US Dollar Strengthens on Europe an BOJ Meeting

THE TAKEAWAY: After a volatile start to the week, the US Dollar ended higher as the Yen weakened and Euro-zone worries resurfaced.

A resurfacing of US debt ceiling concerns on Monday saw a sharp fall in the S&P500 index, and a rally in the US Dollar as investors sought the safer asset. Asian stocks opened higher in Tuesday trading on the back of the China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman implying that China could increase the quota for foreign investors to invest in domestic stocks. This saw the Greenback sell off in Asian trade as the main Asian Indexes surged higher.

Tuesday saw increased volatility as newswires reported that markets were beginning to price in a potential Euro-zone break up which saw the Euro fall sharply forcing the USDOLLAR index higher. After a period of consolidation, the Euro was again in the spotlight as Germany cut its growth forecast citing Euro-zone worries and weak demand within the region as the catalyst.

After these volatile moves higher, the Dollar started to trend upwards less aggressively toward the end of the week as the Yen weakened and the Australian Dollar lost ground. Australia’s relatively weak employment data saw the so called ‘Aussie’ fall and as trading comes to a close before the Bank of Japan’s meeting, the Yen lost ground potentially due to speculation that Tuesday could see aggressive monetary easing from the Bank.

Jan 18, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Australian Dollar May Struggle to Find Bid Despite Sticky Inflation

Australian Dollar May Struggle to Find Bid Despite Sticky Inflation

Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish

The Australian dollar struggled to maintain the rebound from the beginning of the year, with the AUDUSD slipping to a low of 1.0484, and the high-yielding currency may depreciate further in the week ahead as the weakening outlook for the $1T economy raises the scope for additional monetary support. Nevertheless, Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan tried to talk down the risks surrounding the region and said that the economic outlook remains strong, but we may see the Reserve Bank of Australia continue to carry out its easing cycle over the coming months in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

Although Australian consumer prices are projected to expand at a faster pace in the fourth-quarter, the core rate of inflation is expected to hold steady at an annualized rate of 2.4%, and the data may fail to increase the appeal of the high-yielding currency should the print fall short of market expectations. Indeed, the recent weakness in the labor market along with the slowdown in private sector consumption may ultimately produce a weaker-than-expected inflation report, and a further slowdown in price growth is likely to fuel bets for more easing as the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens maintains a cautious tone for the region. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants still see the central bank lowering the benchmark interest rate by nearly 50bp over the next 12-months, and Governor Stevens may show a greater willingness to cut borrowing costs further at the February 4 meeting in an effort to stem the downside risks for growth and inflation. At the same time, Fitch Ratings continued to highlight the risk for a ‘hard landing’ in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – as the new government appears to be moving away from its export-driven market to a more consumer-based economy, and the shift in public policy is expected to have an adverse effect on the Australian economy as the resource boom comes to an end.

As the relative strength index on the AUDUSD continues to find resistance around the 67 figure, the short-term pullback in the exchange rate may gather pace in the days ahead, and we are looking for a move back towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 2011 high to low around 1.0430 as it carves out a lower top just below 1.0600. However, should Australia CPI disappoint, speculation for further rate cuts may threaten the upward trend carried over from 2012, and we may see the pair give back the rebound from earlier this year as interest rate expectations remain tilted to the downside

Jan 19, 2013

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