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Euroarea PMIs confirm stronger growth in 2015 - Danske



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen, reviews the Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI data release.

Key Quotes

Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.0 in February to 51.9 in March and is now at the highest level since May 2014 (consensus 51.5, Danske Bank Markets 52.0). The details behind the improvement were good and suggest further progress in coming months.

The increase is due to higher new orders, which rose from 51.0 in February to 52.2 in March mainly driven by domestic demand as new export orders increased less.

Stocks of finished goods continued to decline, which means the orderinventory balance suggests further improvement in the manufacturing PMI going forward. It currently signals that PMI manufacturing will increase to around 55.0.

The higher manufacturing PMI likely reflects stronger domestic demand in the euro area as uncertainty fades, while exporters benefit from the weaker euro

Service PMI increased from 53.7 in February to 54.3 in March and is now at the highest level since mid-2011 (consensus 53.9, Danske Bank Markets 53.9).

The continued increase in the service PMI likely reflects the boost to private consumption from the lower oil price.


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Mar 24,2015
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GBP to gain ground against EUR and JPY by year-end – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, views that election uncertainty might make the near-term outlook for GBP cloudy, but the pound might gain ground against EUR and JPY, and stabilize against USD by 2015-end.

Key Quotes

“GBP is flat to yesterday’s close, being supported by ongoing broad USD weakness, which has helped to offset disappointing inflation data. February’s CPI dropped to 0%y/y on headline and 1.2%y/y on core; however there was a slight upside surprise on RPI.”

“Still the combination of low oil and food prices is suppressing inflationary pressures in the U.K., with few signs that currency depreciation to date is adding materially to inflation.”

“The risks remain that inflation turns negative before reversing later this year.”

“With low inflation, election uncertainty and vulnerable BoE pricing, we are cautious over the near‐term outlook for GBP; however into year‐end and 2016 we expect GBP to stabilize against the USD and gain ground against EUR and JPY.”



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Mar 24,2015
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NBH cuts 15bp and likely initiates a short easing cycle - TDS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With NBH cutting rates by 15bp, Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, feels that this is just the beginning of a short easing cycle, further predicting 30bps cuts in upcoming meetings.

Key Quotes

“In line with the nearly unanimous consensus expectations, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) cut the base rate today. However, differently from the median of expectations and our forecast, both looking for a 20bp cut, the Bank announced a cut of 15bp, which we think is preparatory to further easing down the line.”

“The EURHUF dropped by 0.3% seconds after the announcement as the market was positioned for a cut today, while 1yr IRS remained nearly unchanged at around 1.79%. The pair is currently trading at 302.”

“We expect another 30bp of easing in total at the two upcoming meetings. The market seems to be priced for an easing cycle of 50bp by August, which suggests a very slow pace. But this also suggests that a moderately dovish message should be fully priced in.”




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Mar 24,2015
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EUR/USD might see further declines below 1.0920 – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares the technical outlook for EUR/USD, noting that the pair might see additional declines if it breaks below the immediate short-term support at 1.0920.

Key Quotes

“The EUR/USD surged to 1.1002 following the release of strong Manufacturing and Service figures across Europe confirming the sense the area is growing lately. Nevertheless, the pair was unable to break above the critical psychological figure, also the 50% retracement of these last two months decline.”

“US inflation data ticked slightly higher in February, up 0.2% as expected, whilst excluding food and energy, the year-to-year figure rose above forecasted up to 1.7%. Still subdued, the initial market reaction saw the EUR/USD diving down to 1.0936 before quickly bouncing up to a fresh daily high of 1.1029, before regaining the downside.”

“Early in the US session, the pair is under selling pressure, and the 1 hour chart shows that the price is breaking below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head lower around their midlines.”

“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators are retracing from extreme overbought levels, supporting some further declines, particularly on a break below 1.0920 the immediate short term support.”

“Support levels: 1.0920 1.0890 1.0865“

“Resistance levels: 1.0955 1.1000 1.1040”






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Mar 24,2015
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GBP/USD break below 1.4850 to target 1.4770 – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, GBP/USD might extend its decline towards the support at 1.4770 if the pair breaks below the immediate support at 1.4850.

Key Quotes

“The pair has been trading quite rage bound ever since the day started, although the greenback seems ready to extend its advance in the short term, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price is unable to overcome its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators aim lower below their midlines.”

“In the 4 hours chart hover, the price is still holding above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators turning lower, but still above their midlines.”

“A break through 1.4850 the immediate support, should lead to a stronger decline, which can extend down to the 1.4770 support.”

“Support levels: 1.4850 1.4810 1.4770”

“Resistance levels: 1.4925 1.4950 1.5000”







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Mar 24,2015
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EUR/USD challenges lows near 1.0920



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is now losing the grip vs. the US dollar, relegating EUR/USD to test the lower bound of the daily range around 1.0920/15.

EUR/USD softer post-US data

The pair is coming down from session highs beyond 1.1030 following higher than expected inflation figures in the US economy during the last month.

Adding to the current wave of USD-buying, the US manufacturing PMI gauged by Markit surpassed both forecasts and previous print for the current month, coming in at 55.3 while New Home Sales increased by 539K (or 7.8%) from January to February vs. 470K previously estimated.

EUR/USD important levels

The pair is now losing 0.22% at 1.0921 and a break below 1.0909 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.0780 (100-h MA) and then 1.0768 (hourly low Mar.23). On the other hand, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.1062 (high Mar.18) ahead of 1.1115 (high Mar.5) and then 1.1123 (61.8% of 1.1534-1.0457).







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Mar 24,2015
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Continue to expect medium-term gradual depreciation in RMB – JPM



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at J.P.Morgan, maintains their medium-term depreciation view on RMB as China’s growth slows down, and further anticipate USD/CNY to drift higher towards 6.40 by year-end.

Key Quotes

“We maintain our medium-term depreciation view on RMB, reflecting China’s slowing growth, rising capital outflows and risk of competitive depreciation from Euro, Yen and other major EM currencies. CNY REER has appreciated by 3.8% YTD, following 6.5% appreciation in 2H14.”

“….concern on RMB valuation remains widespread especially considering potential more monetary easing from ECB and BoJ this year.”

“The recent downside surprises in China economic data also highlight that capital outflow risk will continue to be reinforced, not only reflecting the expectation of diverging China-US monetary policy cycle, but deteriorating average investment return in a broad sense. This may drive the capital outflows to shift to a more structural bias from current cyclical outflows.”

“We still expect the USD-CNY trading band to gradually drift higher in the coming quarters and likely widen before the end of the year, and for USD-CNY to end the year higher at 6.40.”





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Mar 24,2015
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EM currencies recovering vs. USD – JP Morgan



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at JP Morgan remarked the positive performances of currencies in the EM space following the recent USD softness.

Key Quotes

“The consolidation of the broad dollar over the week offered some respite for EM currencies, though most underperformed the euro”.

“EMEA EM currencies notably led the pack, with RUB, HUF, PLN, RON and ZAR appreciating by at least 3% versus the dollar, and even outperformed the euro between 0.2-0.6%”.

“Meanwhile, EM FX underperformers over the week included PHP and MYR, which weakened 1.3-1.5% versus the dollar, fading the post-FOMC rally as the dominant driver for Asian currencies remains policy, and central banks are likely to capitalize on any delays in the beginning of a Fed lift-off to implement further currency weakening, whether through direct intervention or additional rate cuts”.

“Indeed, while several Asian FX markets saw modest appreciation versus the dollar over the week, none strengthened versus the euro. Outside of EM Asia, BRL and PEN also ranked among underperformers”.





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Mar 24,2015
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June remains fit for a possible Fed hike – RBS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O'Donnell, Head of US Treasury Strategy at RBS, comments on the recent Fed member speech, and views that June 17th remains a possible time for Fed to begin its rate hike plan.

Key Quotes

“Bullard and Williams both spoke with a common theme last night; stating a case that Michelle Girard has made recently. Both regional Fed Presidents appear to be really itchy to get off the zero bound soon.”

“Bullard frets about possible asset price bubbles if rates are left near zero while Williams seems to be taking dollar strength somewhat in stride saying, as Fed VC Chair Fischer argued yesterday, that the strength of the dollar reflects the stronger economy here versus elsewhere.”

“But both Williams and Bullard noted that even as rates rise, monetary policy will still remain accommodative given, among other things, the stock level of the Fed's balance sheet. This is just the point that Michelle has argued when defending her team's September lift-off call.”

“We all view Williams as a key, 'semi-core' FOMC participant so I guess the upshot is that June 17th remains a possible lift-off date even though market implied timing is out to October after Janet's presser last week.”






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Mar 24,2015
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Mexico 1st half-month Inflation: 0.18% (March) vs 0.11%



Read more in Forex News






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Mar 24,2015
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Eurozone PMI complements the improving tone for the economy – BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing today’s Euro area data release, the Brown Brothers Harriman Team mentions that the above consensus Eurozone composite PMI print at 54.1 complements the improving tone of the economy.

Key Quotes

“The general improving tone in the euro area continued before the ECB launched its more aggressive asset purchase program. The composite March reading was at a new cyclical higher of 54.1.”

“After a soft patch last year, the German economy has accelerated. The manufacturing PMI (flash) rose to 52.4 from 51.1. The consensus was for 51.5. Services rose to 55.3 from 54.7. This was also a bit better than expected."

“France showed a mixed picture. The manufacturing PMI rose to 48.2 from 47.6but was slightly lower than expected. The service sector slipped to 51.7 from 52.2.”

“In general, the decline in interest rates, oil, and the euro should see the regional economy gain better traction.”

“The euro has tested the $1.10 level. The post-FOMC high was set near $1.1045. Look for a break of this to signal the next leg up in what we continue to regard as corrective gains. Initial support is seen ahead of the 20-day moving average which comes in near $1.0885 now."






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Mar 24,2015
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EUR/USD might slip to 1.0830 – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, technicals suggest that EUR/USD might fall towards 1.0830 levels before fresh demand for the single currency emerges.

Key Quotes

“The daily chart shows the pair has failed for the second time to sustain gains above 1.1 levels. Moreover, the daily candle has dipped into the red after clocking a high of 1.1027, which indicates further losses ahead. The daily RSI and the hourly RSI is bearish as well.”

“Any bounce from the current level of 1.0924 could be restricted around 1.0950-1.0970 levels. Moreover, a fresh demand for Euros is unlikely to be seen so long as it fails to confirm a close above 1.10 on the 4-hour chart.”

“Given the bearish daily and hourly RSI and the overbought 4-hour RSI, the pair could move to its 5-DMA located at 1.0830 before a fresh demand for the Euros kicks-in.“






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Mar 24,2015
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US durable goods orders fall more than expected in February



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data reported by the US commerce department showed today that orders for durable goods in February dropped unexpectedly by 1.2% after a 2% gain in January. The data missed the expectation of a 0.4% gain.

Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft, an indicator of future business investment, dropped 1.4%, its sixth consecutive decline. These orders were estimated to rise 0.3%. Nonmilitary capital goods excluding aircraft used to calculate GDP increased 0.2%, after falling a revised 0.4% in January. Business equipment spending climbed 0.9% last quarter, the weakest since January-March 2014.

A rebound in business investment (Nonmilitary capital goods excluding aircraft) is slightly positive, and may provide lift to the economy. Other than this, the other details are disappointing.







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Mar 25,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD: fresh session high and retreat



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair rose to a fresh session high of 1.4952, before retreating slightly to 1.4927 after the details of the durable goods orders reports revealed an up tick in rebound in business investment.

Rise in business investment could support USD

The USD made a slight comeback after the details of the report showed the Nonmilitary capital goods excluding aircraft (business investment) used to calculate GDP increased 0.2%, after falling a revised 0.4% in January. Moreover, a rebound in business investment is slightly positive, as it may provide lift to the economy.

The pair had shot higher to 1.4952 immediately after the release of an unexpectedly weak headline figure - -1.2% in February after a 2% gain in January.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4952, above which the gains could be extended to 1.4984. On the flip side, a break below 1.49 could push the pair down to 1.4850 levels.







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Mar 25,2015
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EMU’s PMI to keep the upside – Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at Danske Bank, the upside trend in EMU’s PMI could extend its momentum in the upcoming periods.

Key Quotes

“Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.0 in February to 51.9 in March and is now at the highest level since May 2014.

“The details behind the improvement were good and suggest further progress in coming months. The increase is due to higher new orders, which rose from 51.0 in February to 52.2 in March mainly driven by domestic demand as new export orders increased less”.

“Stocks of finished goods continued to decline, which means the order inventory balance suggests further improvement in the manufacturing PMI going forward. It currently signals that PMI manufacturing will increase to around 55.0”.

“The higher manufacturing PMI likely reflects stronger domestic demand in the euro area as uncertainty fades, while exporters benefit from the weaker euro”.

“Improved bank lending is also supporting the recovery, in contrast to previous years”.

“Our model for composite PMI, new orders, which is based on real M1 growth and the effective euro, also suggests the PMIs will continue to increase in coming months”.







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Mar 25,2015
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Germany shows signs of solid growth – MP



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With recent German data creeping to the positive side, Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at MarketPulse, mentions that the economy is showing signs of solid growth, with businesses unaffected by any grexit risks.

Key Quotes

“The EUR’s rebound has come amid some improving economic data in the eurozone. Yesterday’s Euro regional (Germany and France) and composite business activity numbers happened to expand more than expected for March.”

“While today’s German Ifo index print (107.9 vs. 106.8) provides further evidence that the recovery in the eurozone’s largest economy continues in Q1. It seems that German firms have managed to shrug off fears over Greece, and a weaker EUR supported by QE, which is having a net positive effect as it helps to boost export expectations.”

“The index reports that businesses expectations for the next six-months improved, while the current conditions indicator has also picked up, reversing last month’s fall.”

“The reports details suggest that the pickup is broad based with manufacturing rising strongly.”

“Perhaps the only concern for Germany is underestimating a potential Greek exit. There is a clear risk that if the crisis intensifies it will weigh heavily on German and Euro business activity.”








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Mar 25,2015
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GBP keeps the negative bias in the short term – JP Morgan



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of analysts at JP Morgan, the outlook for the sterling remains on the bearish side in the run up to the May elections.

Key Quotes

“One contributory factor to the 50-60bp reduction in the Fed’s own rate projections is the tempering effects on growth and inflation of the stronger dollar”.

“The feedback loop from excessive currency appreciation to policy is not confined to the dollar – interest rate expectations are falling in most strong currency countries versus weak currency countries (the main exception is SEK, where the central bank is overtly prioritizing an even weaker currency)”.

“This reappraisal is most pronounced in GBP, where rate expectations have fallen heavily in the past two weeks on: 1) an increased emphasis from the BoE on the currency, 2) a lessening in upward wage pressure, and 3) the comment from BoE chief economist Haldane that rates were as likely to fall as to rise”.

“We increase sterling shorts as this erosion in interest rate support intersects with the May election to undermine sterling’s extremely rich valuations”.








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Mar 25,2015
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Investment banks reduce US Q1 GDP forecasts



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The major investment banks have reduced their Q1 US GDP forecasts, since the last week’s release of a dovish fed minutes.

Barclays lowered its US Q1 GDP estimate to 1.2%, from the previous forecast of 1.3%. The bank downgraded its estimate citing the weak shipments figure in the durable goods report released today. Feb shipments were 0.2% vs 0.3% expected and January numbers were revised to -0.4% from -0.3%.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs also downgraded its Q1 US GDP forecast to 1.8% from 2.00%. The downward revisions have come ahead of the third reading of Q4 2014 US GDP, which is seen rising to 2.4%, from the second estimate of 2.2%.








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Mar 25,2015
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USD correction likely to be limited and temporary BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, views that the current USD correction might be limited as the strengthening of the greenback is still not complete.

Key Quotes

The US dollar is still correcting lower following last weeks more dovish than expected FOMCs meeting. The US dollar has been undermined by the decline in US yields as more gradual tightening is discounted.

We remain comfortable with our view that the US dollars strengthening trend is not yet complete. US dollar strength could even overshoot relative to the economic fundamentals.







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Mar 26,2015
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AUD/USD forced below 55 DMA; problematic for bulls



FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7840 with a high of 0.7840 and a low of 0.7799.

AUD/USD has been supported as across the board of commodity currencies, there is strength on the back of oil bouncing yesterday. However, today is a slightly different story with supply coming back in to the sector and $50 for WTI being a psychological number, bulls were finding it tough territory to hold on in there while the initial fears for escalating problems in the oil exporting nations have calmed somewhat vs the initial knee jerk reaction.

We have had some upbeat US data of late also which may be putting the US jobs numbers in to good light next week, strengthening the US dollar. Today, initial jobless claims beat expectations as did Markit Service PMI's. Technically, the major is back below the 55 day MA at 0.7851 which brings back the downside in to view and the two month support line at 0.7534 could be the bears target should 0.78 give way to 0.7740 and on to and through 0.7620.









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Mar 26,2015
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Canadian dollar in a technical snapshot - TDS





FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the Canadian dollar in a technical snapshot.

Key Quotes:

"USD/CAD's intraday bounce stalls at 1.25; medium-term technical backdrops remains negative – look to fade USD gains and for losses to extend below major support at 1.2360."

"EUR/CAD rise capped, may turn lower again."

"AUD/CAD rally fades, trend still positive – just."

"GBP/CAD retains a weak bias – we look for a 1.83 test still."

"CAD/JPY stuck in a sideways range trade."





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Mar 26,2015
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German economic outlook is bullish - ING





FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ING Bank explained, like a sailboat, the German economy only needs to hoist the sail and lean back and relax.

Key Quotes:

"Stormy tailwinds could usher in the strongest economic performance since 2011. The German economy ended a volatile year on a very strong note. With GDP growth of 0.7% QoQ in 4Q14, the economy proved that the summer weakness was only a soft spell, driven by one-offs like vacation and public holidays, rather than a drastic structural change."

"Looking ahead, the economy looks set to continue surfing on a wave of economic wellbeing.

"Particularly the domestic segment of the economy continues to be a source of happiness."

"The labour market is likely to continue moving along the line of its current natural rate of unemployment of c.5.5% (or 6.5% according to the national definition)."

"The implementation of the minimum wage, another year with wage increases of c.3% YoY and low energy prices should also increase German consumers’ purchasing power. Last but not least, the ECB’s QE has started to feed into the domestic economy, with consumers’ willingness to save at all-time lows. In all, private consumption looks set to become an even more important growth driver than in recent years."





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Mar 26,2015
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SNB will intervene in the foreign-exchange market as necessary SNBs Zurbruegg





FXStreet (Mumbai) - Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Fritz Zurbruegg said on Thursday that the countrys central bank is prepared to purchase foreign currencies if needed, as the franc remains significantly overvalued.

Key Quotes:

The SNB's decision to remove the franc's cap doesnt mean that we will simply be a passive observer,

(SNB) will intervene in the foreign-exchange market as necessary in order to influence monetary conditions.

Sustained negative inflation, or even a deflationary spiral - a negative feedback loop involving an economic downtrend and falling price levels - is thus not expected,

Negative rates will certainly pose a challenging phase for the Swiss economy.






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Mar 27,2015
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SNB keeps looking to ‘unconventional’ methods regarding strong CHF – Danske Bank





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, recent comments by SNB officials remarked the possibility of further actions by the SNB in order to quell the franc’s strength.

Key Quotes

“The two speeches from SNB board members last night are also worth noting”.

“Board member Zurbrügg said after commenting on the discontinuation of the EUR/CHF floor that negative rates are having the desired effect in Switzerland and that rates will take a more prominent role in monetary policy”.

“However, he did reiterate the SNB’s stance that the CHF is significantly overvalued and that it should weaken over time and that the SNB will continue to intervene as deemed necessary”.

“Notably he twice made references to the effective CHF rate, which may fuel speculation that the SNB is looking at the CHF against a basket of currencies now”.

“The fact that Zurbrügg reiterated comments from alternate board member, Thomas Moser, earlier this week that the SNB is looking at the IMF suggestion of buying foreign-currency assets, suggests that the SNB is not in pure wait-and-see mode as last week’s meeting may have suggested”.

“Also, at the same event yesterday, another alternate board member, Dewet Moser, said that the SNB will ‘continue to deploy unconventional methods’ to fight CHF strength”.






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Mar 27,2015
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US Q4 GDP expected to be revised higher – BBH





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, previews today’s US data releases – US Q4 GDP revision, and University of Michigan's March consumer confidence numbers.

Key Quotes

“US Q4 GDP is expected to be revised slightly higher to 2.4% from 2.2%. Personal consumption, which may be more important for policy makers than the overall economic growth is expected to be revised to 4.4% from 4.2%. The softer consumption data in Q1 15 should be placed in that context.“

“In addition, the University of Michigan's final March consumer confidence figures will be reported. In addition to the headline, the inflation expectations component will be scrutinized. The long-term expectation (5-10 years) is at 2.8%. With a brief exception, it has been between 2.7%-2.9% since the end of 2013.”

“The Fed has seemed to emphasize this over the market-based measures though as we noted yesterday, US 10-year breakeven rates are rising.”






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