OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

[OctaFX_Farid]

Will 2015 be about the theme of negative yields? – BAML



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch share that the Central Banks have now embraced negative deposit rates to ward off excess global liquidity, with 10 countries having negative yielding government bonds.

Key Quotes

“Global monetary policy remains a fluid and evolving narrative.

2013 was the story of low yields.

2014 became the story of no yield.

2015 will be all about the theme of negative yields.”

“Central banks have crossed the Rubicon of late, embracing negative deposit rate policies in an attempt to induce animal spirits in the banking sector (lend, not hoard) and ward off the inflow of excess global liquidity. The result has been the rapid growth in negative yielding government debt.”

“ [..] this isn’t just a Eurozone phenomenon. 10 countries now have negative yielding government bonds.”

“Much has been caused by negative interest rates from central banks (ECB, Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden), but not all. Note that Japan 5yr yields went negative yesterday.”

“[…] Japan has by far the largest stock of negative yielding debt, reflective of its sizeable government bond market.”






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Jan 21,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

ECB meeting: Euro to move lower after a short term squeeze higher Investec


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, head of FX dealing at Investec Corporate and Institutional Treasury, expects euro to move lower and weaken further, supported by the ECB pumping Euro 1trn into the market over the next one and half years.

Key Quotes

"In the short term we risk a squeeze higher in the Euro now all policy is announced and there is no additional stimulus for the market to price in or pre-empty - what traders call buy the rumour, sell the fact. Once the dust has settled, we expect the Euro to move lower from here as the continued effect of negative deposit rates, combined with the flooding of over Euro 1 trillion extra into the market over the next year and a half, should continue to weaken the single currency."







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Jan 22,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/DKK hits 3-week high after DNB cuts rates for second time this week


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/DKK rose to fresh 3-week high after the Danish Nationalbank cut its deposit rate to -0.35% from -0.2%, the second cut in 4 days, in response to ECB expanded asset purchase programme. The Danish Central Bank had lowered its deposit rate to -0.2% from -0.05% on Monday.

EUR/DKK climbed to a recovery high of 7.4470 after the ECB and the DNB moves. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 7.4420 area.

The Danish decision came 90 minutes after the ECB announcement as the DNB fights to prevent the krone to appreciate.

EUR/DKK fell to a low of 7.4283 on Jan 15 in the aftermath of the SNB decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor. Increasing pressure on the euro has supposedly force the Danish Bank to intervene in the FX market and to conduct its second rate cut this week.







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Jan 22,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session Recap: Greenback profits taken off table


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Since the ECB made the deaccession to launch its sovereign QE programme, and with the SNB recent chopping the EUR/CHF floor, investors are liking the US more and more.

The greenback is maintaining the top spot, despite profit taking, although it is losing the competitive edge when it comes to the currency wars, strengthening further vs the euro and subsequently across the board and analysts are now citing parity in 2016/17 - not good for US exporting business. Anyway, Stocks performed well as diversification of cash flows continues to favour the US assets. Stocks were posting scores on the board close to January's highs earlier on in the session. There were a handful of data events at the start of the shift, but thereafter, the session was down to traders to determine ebbs and flows of the currency tides for themselves.

EUR/USD took back some ground lost from down on the lows at 1.1114 and managed a close back on to the 1.12 handle, albeit down from the highs of the recovery drift at 1.1289 down to 1.1207.

GBP/USD is essentially following in the tracks of the EUR and this move from the ECB is dangerous for committed and stubborn Sterling bulls, as where the euro goes the pound will likely follow. Bears stamped on attempts through 1.5020 resistance drowning the pound back below the 1.50 handle to 1.4985, although finishing up on the day close to half a cent.

USD/JPY stuck to a tighter range on the session of a choppy week, and settled into a sideways pattern around 117.80 resistance/support level post an early session recovery from 117.53.

USD/CAD was trading better bid with good retails sales figures and the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) coming in higher than expected. We went form 1.2377 to 1.2438 in the session.

EUR/CHF was a choppy affair recovering from 0.9791 to 99.11 before dropping back to 0.9843, spiking again to 99.10 and chopping its way down through a drift to 98.50 and recovering for a close at 0.9870.

USD/CHF was volatile with large swings, more so than EUR/CHF but with a load up on dips strategy with a low of 0.8707 for a high of 0.8811.

Key Events:

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) bullish -0.3 vs -0.4 expected

Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) bearish -0.7% vs -0.6% exp

Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) bullish 0.4% vs -0.2% exp

US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) bearish 53.7 vs 54.0 exp

US CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Dec) bullish 0.5% vs 0.4% exp

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec) neutral 2.4%







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Jan 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session Recap: Greenback profits taken off table


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Since the ECB made the deaccession to launch its sovereign QE programme, and with the SNB recent chopping the EUR/CHF floor, investors are liking the US more and more.

The greenback is maintaining the top spot, despite profit taking, although it is losing the competitive edge when it comes to the currency wars, strengthening further vs the euro and subsequently across the board and analysts are now citing parity in 2016/17 - not good for US exporting business. Anyway, Stocks performed well as diversification of cash flows continues to favour the US assets. Stocks were posting scores on the board close to January's highs earlier on in the session. There were a handful of data events at the start of the shift, but thereafter, the session was down to traders to determine ebbs and flows of the currency tides for themselves.

EUR/USD took back some ground lost from down on the lows at 1.1114 and managed a close back on to the 1.12 handle, albeit down from the highs of the recovery drift at 1.1289 down to 1.1207.

GBP/USD is essentially following in the tracks of the EUR and this move from the ECB is dangerous for committed and stubborn Sterling bulls, as where the euro goes the pound will likely follow. Bears stamped on attempts through 1.5020 resistance drowning the pound back below the 1.50 handle to 1.4985, although finishing up on the day close to half a cent.

USD/JPY stuck to a tighter range on the session of a choppy week, and settled into a sideways pattern around 117.80 resistance/support level post an early session recovery from 117.53.

USD/CAD was trading better bid with good retails sales figures and the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) coming in higher than expected. We went form 1.2377 to 1.2438 in the session.

EUR/CHF was a choppy affair recovering from 0.9791 to 99.11 before dropping back to 0.9843, spiking again to 99.10 and chopping its way down through a drift to 98.50 and recovering for a close at 0.9870.

USD/CHF was volatile with large swings, more so than EUR/CHF but with a load up on dips strategy with a low of 0.8707 for a high of 0.8811.

Key Events:

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) bullish -0.3 vs -0.4 expected

Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) bearish -0.7% vs -0.6% exp

Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) bullish 0.4% vs -0.2% exp

US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) bearish 53.7 vs 54.0 exp

US CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Dec) bullish 0.5% vs 0.4% exp

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec) neutral 2.4%







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Jan 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session Recap: Greenback profits taken off table


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Since the ECB made the deaccession to launch its sovereign QE programme, and with the SNB recent chopping the EUR/CHF floor, investors are liking the US more and more.

The greenback is maintaining the top spot, despite profit taking, although it is losing the competitive edge when it comes to the currency wars, strengthening further vs the euro and subsequently across the board and analysts are now citing parity in 2016/17 - not good for US exporting business. Anyway, Stocks performed well as diversification of cash flows continues to favour the US assets. Stocks were posting scores on the board close to January's highs earlier on in the session. There were a handful of data events at the start of the shift, but thereafter, the session was down to traders to determine ebbs and flows of the currency tides for themselves.

EUR/USD took back some ground lost from down on the lows at 1.1114 and managed a close back on to the 1.12 handle, albeit down from the highs of the recovery drift at 1.1289 down to 1.1207.

GBP/USD is essentially following in the tracks of the EUR and this move from the ECB is dangerous for committed and stubborn Sterling bulls, as where the euro goes the pound will likely follow. Bears stamped on attempts through 1.5020 resistance drowning the pound back below the 1.50 handle to 1.4985, although finishing up on the day close to half a cent.

USD/JPY stuck to a tighter range on the session of a choppy week, and settled into a sideways pattern around 117.80 resistance/support level post an early session recovery from 117.53.

USD/CAD was trading better bid with good retails sales figures and the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) coming in higher than expected. We went form 1.2377 to 1.2438 in the session.

EUR/CHF was a choppy affair recovering from 0.9791 to 99.11 before dropping back to 0.9843, spiking again to 99.10 and chopping its way down through a drift to 98.50 and recovering for a close at 0.9870.

USD/CHF was volatile with large swings, more so than EUR/CHF but with a load up on dips strategy with a low of 0.8707 for a high of 0.8811.

Key Events:

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) bullish -0.3 vs -0.4 expected

Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) bearish -0.7% vs -0.6% exp

Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) bullish 0.4% vs -0.2% exp

US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) bearish 53.7 vs 54.0 exp

US CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Dec) bullish 0.5% vs 0.4% exp

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec) neutral 2.4%







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Jan 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session Recap: Greenback profits taken off table


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Since the ECB made the deaccession to launch its sovereign QE programme, and with the SNB recent chopping the EUR/CHF floor, investors are liking the US more and more.

The greenback is maintaining the top spot, despite profit taking, although it is losing the competitive edge when it comes to the currency wars, strengthening further vs the euro and subsequently across the board and analysts are now citing parity in 2016/17 - not good for US exporting business. Anyway, Stocks performed well as diversification of cash flows continues to favour the US assets. Stocks were posting scores on the board close to January's highs earlier on in the session. There were a handful of data events at the start of the shift, but thereafter, the session was down to traders to determine ebbs and flows of the currency tides for themselves.

EUR/USD took back some ground lost from down on the lows at 1.1114 and managed a close back on to the 1.12 handle, albeit down from the highs of the recovery drift at 1.1289 down to 1.1207.

GBP/USD is essentially following in the tracks of the EUR and this move from the ECB is dangerous for committed and stubborn Sterling bulls, as where the euro goes the pound will likely follow. Bears stamped on attempts through 1.5020 resistance drowning the pound back below the 1.50 handle to 1.4985, although finishing up on the day close to half a cent.

USD/JPY stuck to a tighter range on the session of a choppy week, and settled into a sideways pattern around 117.80 resistance/support level post an early session recovery from 117.53.

USD/CAD was trading better bid with good retails sales figures and the Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) coming in higher than expected. We went form 1.2377 to 1.2438 in the session.

EUR/CHF was a choppy affair recovering from 0.9791 to 99.11 before dropping back to 0.9843, spiking again to 99.10 and chopping its way down through a drift to 98.50 and recovering for a close at 0.9870.

USD/CHF was volatile with large swings, more so than EUR/CHF but with a load up on dips strategy with a low of 0.8707 for a high of 0.8811.

Key Events:

Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Dec) bullish -0.3 vs -0.4 expected

Canadian Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Dec) bearish -0.7% vs -0.6% exp

Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) bullish 0.4% vs -0.2% exp

US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jan) bearish 53.7 vs 54.0 exp

US CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Dec) bullish 0.5% vs 0.4% exp

Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) (Dec) neutral 2.4%







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Jan 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/SEK hits highs near 9.3500



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The euro is appreciating vs. the Swedish krona on Monday, lifting EUR/SEK to test session highs around 9.3500.

EUR/SEK supported by 100-d MA

The Nordic cross seems to have found decent support around the 100-day moving average in the 9.3000 area, correcting lower from Decembers tops near 9.7400. In the meantime, disinflationary pressures in the Swedish economy remain the main concern for the Riksbank ahead of its February meeting, and with the recent announcement by the ECB likely to increase further inflows to the krona.

Analysts at TD Securities suggest, we expect to see the rate cut come at the February meeting, as in December it said that it was was preparing further measures that could be presented with effect from the next monetary policy meeting.

EUR/SEK levels to consider

The pair is up 0.05% at 9.3498 with the next resistance at 9.4735 (high Jan.19) ahead of 9.4855 (high Jan.16) and then 9.6012 (high Jan.15). On the downside, a break below 9.3015 (low Jan.23) would target 9.2914 (100-d MA) en route to 9.2410 (low Dec.1).




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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Data ahead: Eurozone CPI expected to fall BBH


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the Eurozone CPI data to be released later this week, anticipating it to register a negative print at -0.5%.

Key Quotes

The January flash CPI report will give a taste of the challenge of the ECB's efforts to put prices back on track to reach its target of near, but below 2% on the headline rate. By simply deciding that its target is really the core rate, some pressure would be alleviated. Egos and inertia, more than economic rationality, lies behind the reluctance. Deflation is likely to have intensified.

January CPI is expected to have fallen to -0.5% from -0.2% in December. The core rate is expected to be unchanged at 0.7%; low but not deflation. The ECB model projects its asset purchases will push CPI up by 0.4% this year and 0.3% next.







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Jan 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

SEB: EUR/GBP sees some support at the long-term trendline eFXnews


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team shares SEBs intraday outlook for the EUR/GBP pair, noting that the pair stands supported by the long-term descending trendline.

Key Quotes

A descending 2010-2012 trendline ought to inspire some profit-taking when conditions are so short-term stretches as they currently are. But the bounce may become both short & shallow with daily and weekly mid-body points at 0.7525/55 providing presumed resistance.






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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR might see heightened volatility when Greek negotiations start MP


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at MarketPulse, comments that at the moment markets should be pricing a fair value EUR QE vs. an expected high margin win for Syriza, and that the high volatility for the single currency will arrive at a later stage when the external negotiations begin for Greece.

Key Quotes

The markets initial reaction was to further penalize the EUR, pushing it briefly to a new 11-year low (1.098) in Asia as the Greeks radical leftist vowed to tear up terms of the countrys bailout. However, the EUR weakness has been short lived, with the single unit riding higher outright (1.1246) and against the yen during European trading (133.00).

The market seems a tad more confident that last weeks QE support by the ECB leaves the markets less vulnerable to break up fears. Many are viewing Draghis backstops have effectively firewalled Greek developments and should limit contagion.

In translation, investors will have to gage the EURs natural price weakness that is supported by QE and not by euro-zone periphery fears.

Many will interpret the larger than expected victory by Syriza could be leaving the EUR vulnerable for further short selling in the short term. The fact that the single unit is down 14-big figures since December, with little or no retracement, consolidation and some profit taking could be a risk factor to some of the weaker EUR short positions.

The Greek results gives Tsipras a strong mandate to push through major national changes, however, the external negotiations will be more of a market risk factor, and are sure to heighten volatility over the coming months. But, that is a tomorrow problem; for now the market should be pricing fair value EUR QE vs. an expected Greek result with a wider margin win.






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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Foreign investors sell Japanese bonds for the fourth consecutive week BBH


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team shares last weeks MOF data, noting that foreign investors sold Japanese bonds for the fourth consecutive week, and also trimmed holdings in Japanese shares.

Key Quotes

Last week's MOF data showed Japanese investors bought a record amount of foreign shares. There was a spike up in JGB bond yields. The combination of the two may reflect the ongoing diversification of Japanese pension funds and the reform of GPIF.

For their part, foreign investors have sold Japanese bonds for four consecutive weeks, a streak not seen in a year. Foreign investors have also pared their holdings of Japanese shares for the fourth week in the past five.






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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD bounce may hinge on Fed TDS


FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist, at TD Securities, looking at the one sided positioning and the recent drop in lower, the EUR/USD pair risks an upside bounce in the short run, which may hinge on the FOMC meeting this week.

Key Quotes

We remain bearish on the outlook for the EUR overall but we remain cognizant of the risk that positioning (IMM data released at the end of last week highlight just how one-sidedeven before the bulk of the latest dropthe market has become positioned), plus the scale of the move lower in spot over the past three months or so might limit scope for an immediate or significant extension of last weeks slide.

Indeed, these issues could actually point to the risk of a trading bounce in the single currency in the short run. That may hinge on the FOMC meeting this week; if the Fed stays on positive message, and ignores the USDwhich we think it canEURUSD is likely to remain heavy.

US Treasury Sec. Lew, who is entitled to have a beef with the USD if he feels like it, suggested that USD strength was fundamentally justified when speaking in Davos Friday. No push back there. But a cautious-sounding Fed could check the USDs advance and prompt a modest bounce in the EUR potentially.

From a technical point of view, that fact that the EUR has steadied around major, long-term support (1.1214 is the 61.8% retracement support of the 0.83/1.60 rally) warrants attention. Holding this level last week gives some legitimacy to the idea that the EUR sell off may stop or reverse, if only briefly; a weekly close below opens the door to par.






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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY to remain range-bound Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates that USD/JPY may keep trading in the 116.93-118.87 range in the short-term.

Key Quotes

USDJPY is relatively stable, trading within its five session range of 116.93 to 118.87. The trade balance narrowed, as exports were stronger than expected, rising 12.9%y/y and imports slightly softer at 1.9%y/y. Thursdays release of CPI is this weeks most important domestic release.

USDJPY short‐term technicals: bearishbut studies lack conviction, leaving the over arching theme as range bound for USDJPY.

Support lies at the recent low of 116.93; while resistance lies at 118.87 followed by the psychologically important 120.





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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD little upward risk below 1.1290 FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, EUR/USD short-term picture favours the upside, with the pair now moving closer to the immediate resistance at 1.1285 levels.

Key Quotes

Following a recovery from a fresh 11-year low at 1.1097 posted early Asian session, the EUR/USD pair advances to fresh daily highs in the 1.1270 price zone.

The lack of relevant data, stocks momentum, and market speculation the SNB continues to intervene the currency markets to keep franc down despite lifting the cap, is giving the common currency a breather this Monday.

The pair continues to trade in wide intraday ranges, having so far moved around 180 pips.

Technically, the short term picture favors the upside, with the 1 hour chart showing indicators aiming higher above their midlines, and price approaching 1.1285 area, the immediate static resistance.

In the 4 hours chart indicators lost upward strength after recovering from extreme oversold levels, whilst 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope limiting the upside around 1.1325 in case of further advances.





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Jan 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD rises further after US durable goods orders


FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD shrugged off below-expectations UK GDP data and pushed above 1.5100 toward fresh daily highs following negative durable goods orders figures.

Cable managed to climb back above 1.5100 and stretched to a fresh daily peak of 1.5165, its highest level since Friday, as the dollar continues to weaken across the board and remains as one of the worst performers of the day.

US durable goods orders fell 3.4% in December versus an increase of 0.4% expected, while excluding transportation orders dropped 0.8% against a 0.6% rise of consensus. Next on tap, US data includes, consumer confidence, new home sales and Markit services PMI.

At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5160, recording a 0.54% gain on Tuesday, with immediate resistances seen at 1.5185 (20-day SMA) and 1.5200 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.5058 (daily low) and 1.5033 (Jan 8 low) ahead of 1.5000 (psychological level).





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Jan 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Feds forward guidance unlikely to change BBH


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the FOMC meeting, expecting Feds forward guidance in terms of patience to remain intact.

Key Quotes

The Federal Reserves two-day meeting concludes Wednesday. To the extent the FOMC meeting is ever routine, this should be it. Its forward guidance evolved at the end of last year. The considerable time between the end of the asset purchase program (which it never called quantitative easing) and the first hike has been replaced with patience.

At Yellens first press conference last year, she abandoned the Feds purposeful strategic ambiguity, and suggested considerable time was around six months. She again yielded to temptation in December to define patience as a couple of meetings.

The January meeting is covered by that forward guidance. It is unlikely to change. The next meeting in March is a different story. If the Fed wants to prepare the market for a potential rate hike in the middle of the year, the March meeting, which will see updated macro-economic forecasts and a press conference, is more important. Patience at the March meeting would seem to preclude a June hike.

The decline in yields at the short-end of the curve, including the Fed funds and Eurodollar futures, suggest that the consensus expectations for a June hike may be fraying.





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Jan 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD rises further after US durable goods orders


FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD shrugged off below-expectations UK GDP data and pushed above 1.5100 toward fresh daily highs following negative durable goods orders figures.

Cable managed to climb back above 1.5100 and stretched to a fresh daily peak of 1.5165, its highest level since Friday, as the dollar continues to weaken across the board and remains as one of the worst performers of the day.

US durable goods orders fell 3.4% in December versus an increase of 0.4% expected, while excluding transportation orders dropped 0.8% against a 0.6% rise of consensus. Next on tap, US data includes, consumer confidence, new home sales and Markit services PMI.

At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5160, recording a 0.54% gain on Tuesday, with immediate resistances seen at 1.5185 (20-day SMA) and 1.5200 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.5058 (daily low) and 1.5033 (Jan 8 low) ahead of 1.5000 (psychological level).





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Jan 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD to move towards 0.68 in the longer term Rabobank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the RBNZ may be required to extend its dovish tone to maintain the pressure on NZD, further expecting NZD/USD to move towards 0.68 and AUD/USD to see 0.70 levels in the longer term.

Key Quotes

In our view the risks to growth justify the more dovish tone of the RBA. However, with RBNZ rates at 3.5% the carry trade still has the ability to thwart a broad based decline in the value of the NZD and the RBNZ may have to extent its dovish tone further if it wants to keep the currency under pressure.

Earlier this month the AUD/NZD hit a new low in the 1.0355 area sparking a round of talk that the exchange rate was heading to parity.

Speculation that the RBA could be cutting rates again in the coming weeks heightens the risk that the RBNZ could also be forced to cut rates and so protect New Zealands competitive position in the region.

In view of the change in the RBNZ tone last night and the Feds apparent lack of concern about the value of the USD, we have extended our bearish NZD/USD view and look for a move towards 0.68 on a 12 mth view.

We have also extended our bearish AUD/USD forecast to 0.70 on a 12 mth view.





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Jan 29,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold wavers after weekly jobless claims in the US fall


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell to a low of USD 1265/O, only to recover back to USD 1271, a level seen before the release of the strong weekly jobless claims data in the US.

Jobless claims at lowest level since 2000, Gold steadies around USD 1270

The labor department data in the US showed a number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits fell 43,000 to 265,000 in the week that ended Jan. 24, hitting the lowest tally in 14 years. However, Gold remained largely uninspired after recovering from a quick slump as analysts cautioned over reading too much into claims reports this time of the year, citing volatility from the holidays and weather.

Gold prices have steadied around USD 1270/Oz levels post the data release. The metal is now down 1.27% for the day mainly as the interest rate hike expectations in the US remained unchanged post the FOMC statement yesterday.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 50-WMA located at 1266.76, under which losses could be extended to 1250.16 (5-WMA). On the flip side, the resistance is seen at 1272.3 and 1280.00 levels.




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Jan 29,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

FTSE declines 0.4%


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Londons Ftse index declined today, despite which it looks set to post best monthly performance in more than a year.

Energy shares and Miners under pressure

The Ftse Oil and Gas index weakened 0.51% as Crude prices continue to hover near six year low. Meanwhile, the Ftse Indsutrial Metals and Mining Index declined 2.43%. Telecom index has weakened 1.84%, while the Bank index is down 0.62%.

Among stocks, Shares in Bunzl are down 2.69%, followed by a 2.18% fall in Sainsbury. On the other hand, Fresnillo and Randgold are up 4.00 and 2.68% respectively. Fresnillo share price rose after Deutsche Bank research note reissued hold rating on the stock.

FTSE Technical Levels

The index currently trades 0.43% lower at 6781.00 levels. The immediate support is seen at 6773.14 (Nov. 21 high), under which losses could be extended to 6750.22 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 6816.80 and 6866.80 levels.



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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD jumps to 1.2800


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar accelerates its decline vs. its neighbor on Friday, once again pushing USD/CAD to fresh multi-year highs around 1.2800.

USD/CAD in March 2009 levels

The pair continues to push higher, this time via further CAD weakness after the Canadian economy contracted 0.2% during November vs. a forecasted flat reading. Data in the US economy showed the GDP grew 2.6% during Q4 2014, missing prior surveys for a 3.6% advance; Employment Cost Index gained 0.6%, matching estimates and down from 0.7% previous.

Next on tap will be the Chicago PMI and the Reuters/Michigan index.

USD/CAD significant levels

At the moment the pair is advancing 1.29% at 1.2776 with the initial barrier at 1.2900 (psychological level). On the downside, a breach of 1.2608 (low Jan.30) would aim for 1.2512 (low Jan.29) and finally 1.2390 (low Jan.28).




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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold struggles to extend gains


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices struggled to extend gains despite of a weaker-than-expected preliminary US Q4 GDP data released now.

Resilient USD

The yellow metal has not been able to extend gains despite weak US GDP as the US dollar failed to weaken. In fact the USD Index is back above 95.00 levels. Most of the major currencies continue to stay weak against the USD except the Japanese Yen.

Hence, the yellow metal could not extend gains as the strong USD continued to weigh on prices. The metal did clock a high of USD 1266.66, although the gains could not be sustained.

Gold Technical Levels

The metal currently trades largely unchanged post the data at USD 1263.10/Oz; up 0.575 for the day. The immediate resistance is seen at 1265.8, above which gains could be extended to 1272.08 (hourly 50-SMA). On the flip side, the support is seen at 1261.6 and 1256 levels.




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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/RUB to climb over 75 in a month Danske


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team, comments on Russian Central Bank decision to cut interest rates by 200bp, and further expects RUB to attain an equilibrium price of 75 with USD.

Key Quotes

Today (30 January 2015) Russias central bank unexpectedly cut its key rate to 15% from 17% p.a., while consensus expected the rate to stay unchanged.

The main reason given by the central bank for the cut was that the previous hike by 650bp in December 2014 calmed inflation and depreciation expectations.

The central bank expects a further decrease in the CPI due to falling economic activity.

We expect that the rouble will be actively trying to what we estimate as its equilibrium price of 75 against the USD, given the current oil price.

New sanctions and the escalation of fighting in Eastern Ukraine will be adding a fear premium to that level.

We welcome the decision to cut, as last years aggressive monetary policy has caused a massive monetary contraction and is likely to send the Russian economy into deep recession this year (we expect GDP to fall -7.9%), with a further -0.8% y/y fall in 2016.

Yet, in current conditions 200bp is still a small cut to help lending growth and support economic activity.

We expect CPI to rise to 20% y/y in H1 15, which leaves no space for further monetary easing. The next meeting of the central bank on the key rate is scheduled for 13 March 2015.




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EUR/USD shows no reaction after US data FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares the technical outlook for EUR/USD, with the pair showing no major reaction post the US and EZ releases.

Key Quotes

The EUR/USD pair cant find a way this Friday, trading around its daily opening and despite key macroeconomic data has been released for both economies.

Earlier on the day, EZ inflation turned out negative, a confirmation of the ongoing deflation in the area. In the US, GDP figures showed the economy expanded at a slower pace than forecasted in the QE, printing 2.6% against an expected 3.3% grow.

The EUR/USD however, continues to trade in the lows 1.13 with the 1 hour chart showing price moving back and forth around 20 and 100 SMAs, both flat in a 10 pip range, while indicators hold in neutral territory.

In the 4 hours chart indicators turn slightly lower but also around their midlines, lacking directional strength at the time being.

Selling interest has surged again earlier on the day near the 50% retracement of the latest bearish run at 1.1365, becoming the critical resistance to break to confirm an upward extension.

The main support on the other hand, stands at 1.1250 a static support as per several intraday lows posted around it during these last few days.



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