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USD/CAD in narrow range around 1.1250

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is sidelining vs. its fellow neighbor on Monday, taking USD/CAD to a tight range between 1.1260 and 1.1280 so far.

USD/CAD eyes on the BoC

The pair has started the week almost unchanged, looking to consolidate the recent decline after posting multi-year tops in the boundaries of 1.1400 the figure last week. Currently meandering around the mid-1.1200s, the main events for the CAD ahead in the week will be the BoC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, followed in importance by Retail Sales. From the other side of the border, US housing data, CPI figures and manufacturing gauges will add to the potential catalysts. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, commented, “dips to the 1.1220/30 were well-supported last week and firm, underlying trend momentum suggests limited downside for the market initially this week at least. From here, we might need a break below 1.12 or above 1.14 to get a better sense of direction”.

USD/CAD important levels

The pair is now retreating 0.13% at 1.1262 facing the next support at 1.1234 (Tenkan Sen) followed by 1.1211 (low Oct.17) and finally 1.1205 (23.6% of 1.0620-1.1385). On the upside, a break above 1.1294 (high Oct.20) would target 1.1360 (high Oct.16) en route to 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15).

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Oct 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD attacks 1.6150 again; 1.6185 next frontier

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief rejection from the 11-day high at 1.6153, the GBP/USD is reassuming its upside move from 1.6080 as the pair is now retesting the 1.6150 level again.

The move is being fueled by a weak dollar trade in the European session. Ahead of the American opening, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6139, up 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6153 and low at 1.6080.

GBP/USD sentiment

“The GBP/USD trades at its daily high after finally breaching above 1.6125, level that contained the upside for most of these last 2 weeks,” comments Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet. “The upside is favored with 1.6185 as next target once the daily high gives up.”

If the pair manages to break above 1.6150, next resistances are at 1.6155 (21-d MA) followed by 1.6200 (50% of 1.6525-1.5875) and Oct. 09 high at 1.6225.

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Oct 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD breaks above 0.7960

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar is falling on Monday against commodity currencies despite risk aversion. NZD/USD/strong> recently broke above 0.7960 reaching a fresh daily high.

The pair opened the week steady and dropped to 0.7914 (daily low) during the Asian session but then rebounded, and since then moved with an upside bias. The 0.7960 area capped the upside and become an important short term resistance. The pair hit a fresh high at 0.7971 and remains near the lows.

The kiwi still holds a bullish bias in the short term, after posting the on Friday the second weekly gain a row, as it continues to recover from 1-year lows. The next key resistance area lies around 0.8000, that capped the upside last week.

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Oct 20, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Lower crude oil prices beneficial for Japanese economy - RBS

FXStreet (Łódź) - Junko Nishioka, Chief Economist at RBS discusses the possible impact of the dropping oil prices on the Japanese economy.

Key quotes

"Lower crude-oil prices will improve trade income, strengthen corporate profits via reduced input costs, and lighten the household burden for the Japanese economy that relies on imports for almost all of its resources."

"Specifically, we estimate that a 20% decline in the crude-oil price will boost trade income by about JPY4tn and corporate recurrent profit by 11%."

"Benefits of lower crude-oil prices differ for industries, and we expect upstream industries with extensive intermediate input, such as basic chemicals and other petroleum-related products, to benefit most."

"We also envision a lighter burden on households, the final demand sector, on the simple assumption that companies can reduce output prices by half from the input cost savings."

"We believe this can return to the economy at least one-third of lost disposable income from the FY14 consumption tax hike, as well as cushion future tax increases from tax system revisions and rising social entitlement costs. Indeed, we expect a favourable overall impact on real economic activity from lower crude-oil prices."

"At the same time, a sudden steep drop in crude-oil prices will contribute to downward pressure on prices and may generate concerns about a delay in reaching the 2% inflation target."

"Yet, if crude-oil prices stay at current levels, we anticipate only a 0.1-0.2pp downward shift in the core CPI from our existing main scenario."

"We thus do not foresee crude-oil prices significantly delaying the realization of the 2% target, and doubt the BoJ will find it necessary to substantially lower its inflation outlook – even if it needs to reduce growth rate projections – in its end-October Outlook Report."

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Oct 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Comex Copper rises to 4-day high

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Copper, on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, is trading at a four-day high after having recovered from the losses of the Asian and European session.

Copper is trading 1.16% higher at USD 3.023/pound, after having recovered from the day’s low of USD 2.975/pound. Prices hit a high of USD 3.035 just ahead of the US opening today. Moreover, the metal has recovered from the day’s low tracking the strong performance of the European and the US Equity markets. Speculations are rife that the European Central Bank (ECB) bought Italian covered bonds as it returned to the market for a second day under its asset purchase program.

Copper prices also got a boost after the US National Association of Realtors reported the existing home sales at a one year high in September. Existing home sales rose 2.4 percent to an annual rate of 5.17 million units, beating the Reuters forecast of 5.10 million sales growth.

Copper Technical levels

Copper may rise to 3.05 levels, if the metal manages to sustain above 3.026 levels. On the other hand, prices may fall back to 2.975 levels if the support level of 3.00 is breached.

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Oct 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD hits fresh daily lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD fell to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the New York session as the greenback gathered pace, especially against European rivals.

Following a short-lived bounce, GBP/USD resumed the slide, extending its pullback from a 12-day high of 1.6185 to a low of 1.6130, although the 20-day SMA is helping to contain the downside. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.6135 zone, 0.14% below its opening price.

GBP/USD: supports & resistances

As for technical levels, below 1.6130, next supports could be found at 1.6100 (psychological level) and the 1.6084/1.6079 area (10-day SMA/Oct 20 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.6198/1.6200 (50.0% Fibo of 1.6523-1.5873/psychological level) and 1.6225 (Oct 9 high).

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Oct 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD finds support ahead of 1.1200

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD has entered a consolidation phase right above the 1.1200 level after a short-lived bounce was capped by the 1.1240 zone.

USD/CAD hit a 1-week low of 1.1203 earlier on the day as commodity currencies outperformed the USD over the last sessions, but buyers contained the slide ahead of the psychological level. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.1230 zone, still 0.47% below its opening price.

USD/CAD short-term outlook

“The low 1.12 zone has been pivotal since early October and should continue to hold; below here (trend channel support at 1.1195) and the USD should head back to 1.10/1.11”, said the TD Securities team. “Shorter-term weakness reflects the negative patterns on the longer-term charts that we also highlighted Monday but we rather expect support to hold today”.

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Oct 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY breaks below 136.00

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro continues to weaken against the yen, having fallen to a fresh weekly low, on reports that the ECB is discussing corporate bonds buying, which would expand its balance sheet and bypass banks in the transmission of policy.

EUR/JPY extended its decline to below 136.00 and hit its lowest level since last Thursday at 135.68 in recent dealings. At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at the 135.80 area, recording a 0.78% loss Tuesday, following four consecutive days of rising.

EUR/JPY levels to watch

As for technical levels, EUR/JPY could find next supports 135.02/00 (Oct 14 low/psychological level) and 134.13 (2014 low Oct 16). On the flip side, resistances could be faced at 137.00 (Oct 20 high/psychological level) and 137.20 (20-day SMA).

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Oct 21, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD climbs to highs pre-BoC

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is extending its upbeat momentum vs. its northern neighbour, pushing USD/CAD to session highs beyond 1.1240.

USD/CAD attention to the BoC, data

Key day for the Canadian dollar, as the BoC will hold its monetary policy meeting followed by the more relevant October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Paul Fage, Senior EM Strategist at TD Securities. Assessed, “Governor Poloz has no incentive to sound upbeat and recent developments will give him ample justification to maintain his cautious tone. The forward looking language is not likely to change substantially with the Bank holding on to their neutral bias, but the document as a whole is likely to feel dovish”. Still in Canada, Retail Sales are also due, with consensus expecting a flat reading in August and a 0.2% gain from the core print. In the US economy, the focus will be on September’s inflation figures gauged by the CPI, with headline consumer prices expected at 1.6% YoY.

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.13% at 1.1236 with the next resistance at 1.1297 (high Oct.21) ahead of 1.1360 (high Oct.16) and then 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1216 (low Oct.22) would open the door to 1.1202 (low Oct.21) and finally 1.1200 (psychological level).

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: CPI (Sep) rose 1.7%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Department of Labour informed that US headline consumer prices rose at an annual pace of 1.7% in September, surpassing estimates and matching August’s print. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.1% MoM.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold at day’s low after CPI data

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices declined after the Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data in the US surprised markets on the upside.

Gold is trading 0.57% lower at the day’s low of USD 1243.80/Oz after the official data in the US showed CPI in September rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared to the market expectation of 0.0%. Moreover, the CPI has increased when compared to August month’s reading of -0.2%. Year-on-year the CPI increased 1.7%, above expectation of 1.6%.

Moreover, markets were expecting the CPI data to highlight weakening price pressures. However, a strong data is likely to push inflation expectations higher. Thus, the data is likely to erase the bets of a delay in the interest rate hike in the US. The US ten-year treasury yields have so far not reacted to the better-than-expected CPI data.

Gold Technical levels

Gold can fall to 1238 levels if the prices fail to sustain above 1245 levels. On the other hand, a rebound could see Gold re-test 1250 levels.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD drops further after US CPI numbers

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD fell from 1.2700 to 1.2665, hitting a fresh 1-week low. The pair weakened after the release of US inflation numbers that boosted the USD across the board.

The euro was recovering from 1.2679 (previous daily low) and before the report climbed back above 1.2700 to 1.2727. Then started to retreated and plummeted after the data. Currently trades at 1.2674/75, down 0.30% for the day.

USD gains momentum after CPI

According to the US Department of Labor Statistics the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% in September, slightly above the increase of 0.2% expected. The annual rate remained unchanged at 1.7%; analyst were expecting a decline to 1.6%.

Greenback rose across the board after the report. Higher inflation numbers increase expectations about a rate hike by the FED sooner than previously expected.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD jumps to 1.1270

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is now quickly appreciating vs. its Canadian counterpart, taking USD/CAD to session highs around 1.1270.

USD/CAD weaker on data

The pair is trading on an upbeat mood after Canadian retail sales disappointed investors during August, contracting 0.3% inter-month. In addition, better-than-expectec inflation figures in the US economy gave extra legs to the greenback, boosting spot from the 1.1220 neighbourhood pre-releases. Spot now remains well positioned for another leg higher, as markets expect a dovish tone from Governor Poloz in today’s statement and press conference. “We really think USDCAD is trapped within a 1.12/1.14 range for the moment—justifiably to an extent as our work suggests that the currency is largely in line with fundamental fair value—and developments today are liable to foster the impression of a volatile though largely directionless range trade in place at the moment”.

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is up 0.39% at 1.1265 with the next resistance at 1.1297 (high Oct.21) ahead of 1.1360 (high Oct.16) and then 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1216 (low Oct.22) would open the door to 1.1202 (low Oct.21) and finally 1.1200 (psychological level).

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF bounces to fresh highs after US CPI

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US Dollar is recovering its mojo versus the Swiss Franc after the US inflation data released today as the pair is trading now at daily highs.

US CPI rose 0.1% MoM in September, higher than the 0.0% expected while the yearly inflation remained unchanged on yearly basis at 1.7%.

Earlier in the day, the USD/CHF rallied from 0.9475 area but the movement was capped at 0.9410 where the paur found some selling interest that sent it to test back lows. However, the US CPI data fueled the Greenback to bounce at minimums and to price as high as 0.9525.

Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9516, up 0.27% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9526 and low at 0.9472. USD/CHF spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is strongly bullish.

USD/CHF levels

With a sustained break above the 0.9525, USD/CHF will face resistances at 0.9550 and 0.9560. On the downside, supports are at 0.9475, 0.9445 and 0.9400.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Ten-year Treasury yields at day’s high

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Treasury yields across the short end and the long end of the bond market curve inched higher after the better-than-expected US CPI number hit the wires.

The Ten-year treasury yield is trading at a day’s high of 2.246%, up from 2.22% hit just before the release of the CPI number. Though, the data for September month managed to beat the market expectation, it still remained well below the 2% target for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the two –year yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, is trading at 0.378%.

Moreover, a better than expected CPI released today is likely to push up the short term inflation expectations in the US.

Ten-Year yield Technical levels

The yield has an immediate resistance of 2.264%, above which it can rise to 2.303%(Aug 15 low). Meanwhile, a failure to sustain above the immediate support of 2.229% can push the pair back to 2.20% level.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD approaches daily lows after US data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD fell from 1.6060 to 1.6030 after the release of inflation data in the US, that triggered a USD rally in the currency market.

The pair was recovering, after bottoming affected by BoE minutes at 1.6010; the upside was capped by 1.6065 and turned back to the downside following the US CPI that showed an increase of 0.1% in September.

GBP down vs US, but up versus EUR and CHF

Despite falling against the US dollar after inflation numbers, the pound beneficiated against other currencies. EUR/GBP fell back below 0.7900 and GBP/CHF rebounded sharply.

While GBP/USD still remains above daily lows, EUR/USD is trading at fresh 1-week lows, USD/JPY soared to 107.30 from 107.00.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Equity futures point to flat opening on Wall Street

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets are likely to open on a flat note today, despite a strong performance of the Asian and the European equity markets.

The S&P December futures are trading 0.02% higher at 1938.45, while the DJIA December futures are trading 0.08% higher at 16,560. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Dec futures have gained 0.04% to trade at 1110.70. Elsewhere, the Dax is trading 0.37% higher at 8920 levels, while the Ftse is trading 0.27% higher at 6389.

The action in the US Equity futures points to a flat opening with a weak underlying tone. Moreover, the futures erased gains after a better-than-expected US CPI data hit the wires.

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD consolidates below 0.8800Street

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD has entered a consolidation phase Wednesday, unable to break free from its recent range, with inflation data from both Australia and US offering only short-lived propulsion.

AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.8742 during the Asian session as the immediate knee-jerk reaction to in line with expectations Australian CPI. However, the Aussie quickly recovered from lows, but the upside was capped by the 0.8800 area, confining the pair to a slim range. At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8780, virtually unchanged on the day.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate supports at 0.8742 (intraday low), 0.8700 (psychological level) and 0.8685 (Oct 16 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.8800/02 (psychological level/intraday high), 0.8832 (Oct 20 high), 0.8860 (Oct 15 high) and 0.8898/0.8900 (Oct 9 high/psychological level).

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Mexico Retail Sales (MoM) up to 0.6% in August from previous 0.4%

Read more in Forex News

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Oct 22, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/CHF (a)pathetic around 1.2060

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/CHF is slowly inching higher on Thursday, although the 1.2070 level seems too tough a barrier so far.

EUR/CHF bounced off 1.2055

The trade remains heavy around the cross, now managing to recover ground from session lows in the mid-1.2000s, although currently USD buying is hampering the bullish intent. Next of note in the Swiss economy will be the KoF Leading Indicator (Monday) and the UBS Consumption Indicator (Tuesday). “Intraday rallies are now indicated to halt circa 1.2080/87, the 55 day ma. This guards the 1.2133 July low and the 200 day ma at 1.2164”, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

EUR/CHF key levels

At the moment the pair is up 0.02% at 1.2064 with the next resistance at 1.2074 (Tenkan Sen) ahead of 1.2088 (38.2% of 1.2140-1.2057) and then 1.2096 (high Oct.14). On the flip side a break below 1.2053 (low Sep.30) would expose 1.2030 (low Nov.28 2012) and finally 1.2007 (low Jul.23 2012).

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Oct 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US: CB Leading Indicator rises 0.8% in September

FXStreet (Łódź) - The US CB Leading Indicator grew 0.8% in September, following a 0.2% rise in August, according to data released by the Conference Board. Market consensus pointed to less increase of 0.6%.

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Oct 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/JPY breaks above 173.00, 2-week high

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The decline of the yen across the board pushed GBP/JPY to the upside. The pair broke above key short term resistance levels and jumped to 173.14, reaching the strongest level since October 10.

Cable remains near the highs, rising more than a hundred pips and headed toward the strongest daily close in two weeks, extending the recovery after falling last week to 168.00.

JPY driving GBP/JPY to the upside

The bullish rally of the pair is being boosted by the decline of the yen in the market. While GBP/USD continues to trade around daily lows, near 1.6000; USD/JPY recently broke above 108.00, to trade at fresh weekly highs, with a gain of more than a hundred pips.

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Oct 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Natural Gas extends slide ahead of inventory data

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Natural gas fell to a fresh 2014 low today as traders expect news on a big addition to winter stockpiles.

Natual gas for November delivery is trading 1.24% lower at USD 3.614/mmbtu. Moreover, the commodity fell in six of the last seven sessions, falling more than 6%.

Moreover, a record high production has kept prices under pressure by putting the demand side under more focus. However, Weather forecasts are still showing above-normal temperatures through the end of the month. This means the heating demand for the fuel is likely to stay low. Meanwhile, the long term weather forecasts are indicating that cold winter weather will not arrive before January.

However, the Natural gas prices may recover today if the weekly supply report shows an increase of less than 97 billion cubic feet for the week ending Oct. 17.

Natural Gas Technical levels

Natural Gas has an immediate support of 3.54, below which prices can fall to 3.37 levels. On the other hand, prices may rise to 3.8 levels if the day’s high of 3.74 is breached.

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Oct 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD making lower highs below key 0.88 handle

FXStreet (Barcelona) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.8773, down -0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8809 and low at 0.8749.

Shunned from the 0.88 handle on bullish attempts, the pair is back on it's knees having been crucified all the way to the mid point of the 0.87 handle by the bears. On these attempts higher, the pair is making lower highs each time as the greenback just keeps coming in strong. However, 0.8650 remains the key support zone and until this eight-month low is breached, we are still caught in a neutral to bearish range. Overnight, there was support for the Aussie from the HSBC Chinese PMI Manufacturing and that was coupled with previous upbeat results for the Chinese economy earlier in the week in the form of Industrial Production and GDP.

For the Aussie, this is sure to offer some background support and while the RBA will likely remain with current stance on policy into November, should China continue on proving resilient into next year, this could transpire into bullish rhetoric from the RBA in respect of the wages outlook in the Australian economy and be further supportive to the Australian dollar in the medium term. However, for now focus and attention will be with the FOMC next week which will be the main driver for the pair in the absence of events from Australia.

AUD/USD noteworthy levels

Spot is presently trading at 0.8774, and next resistance can be seen at 0.8776 (Hourly 20 EMA), 0.8780 (Daily Open), 0.8780 (Daily Classic PP), 0.8782 (Hourly 100 SMA) and 0.8783 (Weekly High). Support below can be found at 0.8767 (Hourly 200 SMA), 0.8752 (Weekly Classic PP), 0.8749 (Daily Low), 0.8746 (Yesterday's Low) and 0.8744 (Weekly Low).

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Oct 23, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session recap: USD consolidation ahead of FOMC

FXStreet (Guatemala) - The FX market was in a phase of consolidation after taking some profits out of the USD.

Stocks in the US were the main event today, which helped the dollar to some extent, but focus was much more about next week. There was finally no chatter around Ebola but more on the condition in Europe. Draft copies of the stress test were leaked and it seems that there are 25 banks that have been or will be confirmed to be required to raise money with 10 out of the 190 that are on the watch list.

GBP/USD was consolidating after an up day in Europe despite the inflation results that actually tailed off and is now sitting at just 1.2% headline CPI. The core printed at 1.5% and hopes for an early rate rise are diminished. 1.61 was the highs and ranges below were down to 1.6017.

USD/CAD bulls defied the bears and the 1.12 handle remained in formation for the session after a little test below the figure. The pair was meeting supply through 1.1240 and was capped within a range here.

USD/JPY finished up in the middle of its range on the 108 handle at 108.10. The yen has been a volatile currency this week but today was put back into its place with only managing a high vs the dollar in the early US session sub the 108 handle at 107.78 the low.

AUD/USD was not very favourable to the shorts out there on the handover from Europe on demand for commodities but that was short lived when the greenback took control again and became bid taking the pair back on the 0.88 handle in a relatively non eventful session for the pair.

Key Events:

Stress test leaks reveal 25 banks failed

USD new home sales for Sep 0.467m vs 0.470m exp m/m

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index made scores of its best week since 2013

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Oct 25, 2014

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