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Credit Agricole: EUR should weaken throughout Q4 - eFXnews

FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team reports that Credit Agricole sees the euro declining further towards the end of the year, as the ECB's focus has fallen on Eurozone's external competitiveness.

Key quotes

"Combined with reserve-rebalancing pressures, EUR/USD should decline to 1.28 during Q4."

"From a pure currency perspective, the latest ECB policy turn is likely to drive an even greater ‘yield-wedge’ between EUR, USD and other core currencies."

"With a majority of investors surprised by this greater ECB determination to lift Eurozone competitiveness, such selling pressure should prove relatively consistent."

"In terms of the external sector, ECB policy actions will also amplify the negative impact of central bank reserve-recycling upon EUR."

'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'

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Sep 11, 2014

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Dollar eases against its rivals - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that the USD is weaker on Thursday, with the EUR/USD trading close to 1.2950, several pips below yesterday's high.

Key quotes

"News shown US weekly unemployment claims picked up above 300K weighting on the American currency, but so far movements seem more corrective than a trend chance."

"Technically, the 1 hour chart shows a mild positive tone, with indicators heading north above their midlines and price above both, 20 and 100 SMAs, in the 1.2925 price zone."

"In the 4 hours chart momentum remains strong above 100 despite price is unable to follow through, while 20 SMA stands flat in the 1.2920 area."

"Further gains may extend up to 1.2990/1.3000 price zone, yet bearish pressure is expected to resume if the area is reached."

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Sep 11, 2014

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Pound continues pricing in a 'no' vote in Scotland - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik suggests, the reports of the scales having turned in favor of a 'no' vote in the Scottish independence referendum caused the GBP/USD to rise, reaching 1.6270 so far today.

Key quotes

"The 1 hour chart shows price well above a bullish 20 SMA, with momentum heading higher above 100 and RSI retracing some from overbought territory."

"In the 4 hours chart technical readings are biased higher, with a break above 1.6280, mentioned Fibonacci resistance, favoring a quick run towards 1.6320 price zone, where it will finally fill the weekly opening gap."

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Sep 11, 2014

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Gold breaks below $1,240

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Spot gold continued to slide and fell to the lowest in 8 months below $1,240/oz. The yellow metal broker earlier below $1,240, dropped to $1,238 but then bounced to the upside $10, only to resume the decline afterwards.

Recently bottomed at $1,235/oz, a level not seen since January 23. The price of the gold is falling for the fourth day in a row.

XAU/USD breaks important support

A consolidation below the $1,240 zone could be a significant event from a technical perspective: the mentioned area capped the downside during May and June.

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Sep 11, 2014

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USD/CAD rises to 4-month highs

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Greenback has been rising against the loonie since the beginning of the day and recently reached the highest price since April 25. USD/CAD started Thursday trading around 1.0935 and moved slowly but always to the upside.

The pair rose back above 1.1000, made a pause around 1.1020 and recently broke above and climbed to 1.1043 (daily high). Currently trades at 1.1033/36, up 0.90% for the day so far.

USD/CAD outlook “messy”

According to the Rates, FX and Commodities Research Team at TD Securities the pair is starting to look messy on the long term charts. “Price action this week—Monday’s rally, Tuesday stall and yesterday’s sell-off—should signal a major top in place at 1.1025/30 via an “evening star” reversal. But the USD has come back well bid this morning and is making new cycle highs.”

“With trend momentum positive and the market apparently brushing off bearish price action with some ease, upside risks are growing again”, the TD Securities Team mentioned.

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Sep 11, 2014

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AUD/USD hovers near 6-month lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD is on track to post its fifth consecutive daily loss, having fallen to fresh near 6-month lows as investors seem more focused on US monetary policy than in Australia economic data.

On Thursday, Australia reported a job growth of 121,000 in August, ten times above expectations, but the Aussie failed to rally on the news and quickly resumed its broader decline with every bounce attempt proving anemic.

AUD/USD make a fresh high at 0.9042 in recent dealings and it is currently trading at the 0.9055 area, down 0.48% on the day. The pair is losing nearly 3.5% from Monday’s opening.

Next week, the Federal Reserve will decide on monetary policy and many are betting the forward guidance, that rates will remain low for a considerable time, might be modified.

AUD/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, next supports could be found at 0.9032 (Mar 21 low) and 0.9000 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.9107 (intraday high), 0.9182 (200-day SMA) and 0.9216 (post-jobs data high Sept 11).

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Sep 12, 2014

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Draghi and Constancio gauges the ECB prospects in the near term – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Sverre Holbek reviewed the recent appreciations by ECB’s Draghi and Constancio.

Key Quotes

“ECB Vice President Constancio and President Draghi shed further light on thinking within the governing council yesterday”.

“Particularly Constancio was quite open in an interview with Börsen Zeitung. He said that while there was no proposal on the table to start buying government bonds and the ECB would prefer not to do so, it ‘certainly is something we cannot exclude’”.

“Constancio declined to give a target for the recently announced asset purchasing programmes and said that the ECB does not intend to do so at the next meeting either”.

“With rates at what Constancio referred to as the lower zero bound, monetary policy has shifted focus to the size of the ECB’s balance sheet”.

“In that regard, Constancio highlighted the attractiveness of the TLTROs, advising banks not to miss the opportunity”.

“In a prepared speech, Draghi elaborated further on the views presented at Jackson Hole in August, urging governments to boost investment efforts if they can afford it, while staying in compliance with existing budget rules”.

“He also said that governments should offer guarantees to encourage lending to small businesses, and support ABSs”.

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Sep 12, 2014

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Session Recap: USD steady with risk events in focus

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Another quiet European session Friday has seen majors consolidating in narrow ranges as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the Scottish referendum and the Fed meeting next week.

EUR/USD is little changed at the 1.2920 zone, having spent most of the day within a 20-pip range. GBP/USD attempted a recovery Friday after a recent YouGov poll showed the ‘no’ leading the vote in Scotland, but the upside has been capped by the 1.6275 zone.

USD/JPY reached yet another 6-year high of 107.39 but lacked follow-through and retreated somewhat. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar continues to underperform despite solid jobs data yesterday, having dropped to a nearly 6-month low of 0.9042 during the European session.

Markets' focus has turned to next week risk events, keeping investors in the sidelines. The Federal Reserve will decide on monetary policy Wednesday Sept 17 amid growing expectations the Fed will take a hawkish turn. Meanwhile, Scottish independence referendum will take place Thursday.

During today’s New York session watch for US August retail sales and the Reuters/Michigan consumer confidence.

Main Headlines in Europe:

Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) rose from previous -0.7% to -0.6% in August

What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

Next week packed with market moving events - - TD Securities

European Monetary Union Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) registered at 2.2% above expectations (1.3%) in July

EMU: Annual Employment rises by 0.4% in Q2

European stocks little changed as investors await key events next week

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Sep 12, 2014

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EUR in consolidation mode again

FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Vladimir Mihaylov observes that the euro remains under pressure ahead of the release of EU ZEW data and the Fed monetary policy decision tomorrow.

Key quotes

"Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but I doubt we shall reach there soon."

"There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better."

"It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week."

"Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a lot worse too."

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Sep 16, 2014

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EUR/USD remains heavy ahead of FOMC – OCBC Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, the pair will keep the heavy tone as we get closer to key events, such as the FOMC meeting and the TLTRO take up.

Key Quotes

“The EUR-USD may continue to loiter amidst a top heavy tone with the OECD yesterday urging further action from the ECB”.

“Data points meanwhile are providing no relief, with the July trade surplus shrinking from the previous month at EUR12.2bn”.

“As noted yesterday, the pair may be expected to bounce within a 1.2900-1.3000 range pending further cues (i.e., FOMC on Wednesday and the TLTRO take up on Thursday)”.

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Sep 16, 2014

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GBP/USD offered below 1.6300 – UOB Group

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling will remain under selling pressure as long as the market keeps trading below the 1.6300 mark, suggested Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

“The short-term upward momentum continues to deteriorate and further GBP strength is unlikely from here”.

“However, another attempt towards yesterday’s high of 1.6275/80 will not be surprising but as long as the major resistant at 1.6300 is not taken out, this could lead to a deeper pull-back towards 1.6200/05.

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Sep 16, 2014

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United States Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in August

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Sep 16, 2014

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Ruble hit by sanction woes while Ukraine grants eastern regions special status

FXStreet (Łódź) - The Russian ruble fell to a record low of 38.5175 against the dollar on Tuesday on fears that sanctions would cause lasting damage to the Russian economy.

Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister under Putin, said during a business conference that West's sanctions "are going to have an effect (on the economy) for the next one or two years because they have limited opportunities for investment in this uncertain environment."

Investor confidence was further undermined by reports that Moscow is planning to strike back by introducing import bans, which could damage domestic consumer spending.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law in line with the ceasefire agreement, granting special self-rule status to the eastern regions of the country overrun by pro-Russian separatists.

The new bill legislates Russian as the second official language, establishes a special economic rule in the region, sets the early local elections date for December 7 and offers amnesty to the militia members.

Still, the leaders of the rebels stated that they are not interested in enjoying a special status, and demanded full independence from Ukraine. The fighting, which continues in Donetsk, as well as the presence of about 25,000 Russian soldiers close to the Ukrainian border, highlights the fragility of the truce.

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Sep 16, 2014

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USD/JPY faces the 107.00 frontier

FXStreet (San Francisco) - It seems the 107.30 area is providing more problems that initially thought for the USD/JPY as the pair hasn't been able to break above it despite several attempts.

The last try was in the European morning with a daily high of 107.30 but the pair was rejected to test the 107.00 area where it remains pricing in sideways mode.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.12, down 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.35 and low at 106.93. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

USD/JPY levels

If the pair manages to hold the 107.00 level, it will face next resistances at 107.30, 107.40 and 107.80. On the downside, supports are at the mentioned 107.00, then 106.90 and 106.60.

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Sep 16, 2014

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AUD/USD advances within range - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that after setting the daily high of 0.9052 at the beginning of the Asian session, and a low of 0.8988 in early Europe, AUD/USD is now rising within range.

Key quotes

"The 1 hour chart shows price a few pips above a flat 20 SMA and momentum around 100, showing no actual strength."

"In the 4 hours chart indicators correct from oversold levels yet remain in negative territory, while 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above current price, which helps keep the upside limited."

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Sep 16, 2014

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AUD/USD advances within range - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that after setting the daily high of 0.9052 at the beginning of the Asian session, and a low of 0.8988 in early Europe, AUD/USD is now rising within range.

Key quotes

"The 1 hour chart shows price a few pips above a flat 20 SMA and momentum around 100, showing no actual strength."

"In the 4 hours chart indicators correct from oversold levels yet remain in negative territory, while 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above current price, which helps keep the upside limited."

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Sep 16, 2014

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USD/CAD completes the 1.1000 trip, but it holds

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CAD fell around 70 pips from 1.1070 in the latest few hours to test the 1.1000 level where the pair found buying interest that launched the pair back to 1.1020.

CAD gained strength after Canadian Shipments published better than expected numbers in July, expanding at a monthly pace of 2.5% vs. 1.0% forecasted and up from June’s 0.9% gain.

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.1022, down 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1073 and low at 1.0998. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/CAD levels

If the pair holds above the 1.1000, it will next resistances at 1.1035 and 1.1070. On the upside, supports are at 1.1000, 1.0970 and 1.0930.

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Sep 16, 2014

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EUR/USD recovers its quietness and trades at 1.2935

FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief decline to 1.2920 and a shy test of MA 200 hours at 1.2965, the EUR/USD is now trading quietness around 1.2940.

Investors are focused on Wednesday's FOMC. As Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet comments: "If something, FED meeting on Wednesday can be the trigger market is waiting for to decide whether to resume the trend or begin a recovery."

Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2941, up 0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2967 and low at 1.2922. EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

EUR/USD levels

If the pair manages to break below 1.2940, it will face supports at 1.2920 and 1.2905. On the upside, resistances are at 1.2950, 1.2965 and 1.2980.

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Sep 16, 2014

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EUR/JPY continues to play on inflation expectations

FXStreet (London) - EUR/JPY is currently trading at JPY138.7185 after hitting two-month highs above JPY139.2 on Friday.

The recent euro gains have broken a six-month down trend in the pair on diverging inflation expectations.

On Thursday the European Central Bank will roll out the first round of its targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) with an auction allowing banks access to cheap four-year loans. With Eurozone inflation numbers set to be released tomorrow, and despite the drastic measures being put in place by the ECB, there remains doubt that the central bank can achieve its 2 percent inflation target. After having gone through a period of deleveraging, the six planned TLTROs in conjunction with the ECB's purchase of asset-backed securities are expected to take the size of the ECB's balance sheet back to 2012 levels at around EUR3 trillion.

Japan inflation "on target" - Kuroda

While the statement contains an element of jawboning, speaking at an event in Osaka overnight, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that he expects Japan to reach its inflation target after aggressive monetary policy. “The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI, which is likely to be around 1.25 percent for some time, is expected to subsequently follow an uptrend again from the second half of this fiscal year and reach about 2 percent around the middle of the current projection period from fiscal 2014 through 2016” said the central bank governor.

The pair is currently trading at JPY138.7185, just over its opening of JPY138.6930 after a choppy day of trading.

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Sep 16, 2014

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Scottish independence referendum remains a close call – Danske Bank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to different opinion polls, the outcome from tomorrow’s Scottish referendum is yet far from decided, commented Anders Fischer, Analyst at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday’s three polls (from Daily Telegraph, Survation and Scotsman) all put support for remaining in the UK at 52% with 48% backing independence, when undecided voters are excluded – and all suggested that support for a Yes vote was rising”.

“However, the three polls gave differing estimates for the proportion of voters still undecided, ranging from 14% to 6%”.

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Sep 17, 2014

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United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0%) in August

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Sep 17, 2014

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US: CPI (Aug) rose 1.7% (YoY)

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Department of Labour informed that US inflation figures measured by the CPI rose at an annual pace of 1.7% in August, missing estimates for a 1.9% gain. On a monthly basis, prices dropped 0.2%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.0% inter-month.

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Sep 17, 2014

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USD/JPY falls on weak US inflation

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US reported its first negative monthly CPI since October 2013 and a weaker than expected yearly inflation in August that put the USD under pressure as it hints more problems for the Fed in case they are thinking to hike rates.

The US is back on negative inflation in August with -0.2% MoM. First negative reading since October 2013. In the same line, yearly inflation was reported weaker than expected with 1.7% YoY, down from previous month of 1.9%. It is not a good news for those rate hike believers.

The USD/JPY fell to 107.10 after a 25-pip decline from 107.35 following US data. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.19, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.37 and low at 107.09.

USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

USD/JPY levels

Weak CPI data fueled a renewed dip within recent ranges for the greenback. According to Gerry Davies from FXBeat, there are options expiries at today's New York cut at 106.75 ($300 mln), 107.00 ($100 mln) and 107.25 ($200 mln).

If the pair extends negative figures, it will face next support at 107.00 and 106.80. On the upside, next frontiers are at 107.35, 107.40 and 107.60.

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Sep 17, 2014

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EUR/USD jumps after US inflation data

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD pushed to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session after data showed US consumer prices grew less than expected in August.

The greenback weakened across the board and EUR/USD surged to fresh highs as both the core and the headline US CPI came in at 1.7% year-over-year in August versus 1.9% expected. The CPI fell 0.2% MoM (0.0% exp) while the core was flat (vs +0.2% exp).

EUR/USD jumped 25 pips on the news and hit a peak of 1.2980 but lacked follow-through as investors seem unwilling to take big positions ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement. Markets are expecting a hawkish shift in Fed stance, so any change in forward guidance might increase the appeal of the US dollar.

EUR/USD technical levels

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2970, 0.09% above its opening price, with immediate resistances lining up at the 1.2994/1.3000 zone (Sept 16 high/psychological level), 1.3059 (21-day SMA) and 1.3100 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.2939 (10-day SMA), 1.2908 (Sept 15 & 12 low) and 1.2900 (psychological level).

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Sep 17, 2014

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USD/JPY at 110.00 in medium-term – Rabobank

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, the pair could reach 110.00 in the medium-term.

Key Quotes

“One year Japanese government yields reportedly traded at a yield of -0.005% this morning, the first time 12 mth paper has sunk below the zero mark”.

“The drop in yields to below zero is a function of the huge demand for government assets from the BoJ to meet to needs of its huge stimulus plan”.

“There is no question that the easing measures that the BoJ has put in place are very aggressive. It is very likely that without them Japan’s economic woes would be deeper than they already are”.

“In general recent data releases have been weak. This suggests that the economy is failing to bounce back as well as hoped in the current quarter after the Q2 economic contraction that followed the hike in the consumption tax in April”.

“Even though it is clear that QE is no silver bullet, in view of limited alternatives available, there is speculation in the market that the BoJ will be forced to increase its easing measures even further in the coming months; though it may have to become increasingly inventive”.

“Into the summer months BoJ optimism had repressed talk of a step up in policy action so this change in expectations has had some impact on yen positions”.

“That said, we have argued for some time that the outlook for the USD is key for the direction of USD/JPY and that further upside will be facilitated by a recovery in the greenback”.

“While we expect that the USD faces set backs from here, not least because we do not expect a rate hike from the Fed until the end of 2015, we do view the USD as having embarked on a long-term recovery”.

“We maintain a medium-term target for USD/JPY at 110.00”.

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Sep 17, 2014

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