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EUR/USD buyers left the building!




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness remains intact around the EUR at the end of the week, currently dragging the EUR/USD to fresh 1-month lows near 1.3750.


EUR/USD bearish now?


The pair extends its deep pullback from recent ytd tops near 1.4000 the figure, against the backdrop of mounting selling pressure post-ECB meeting. Spot still remains under the sedative effects of Draghi’s presser on Thursday, where he opened the door to further easing in the next meeting in June. “There is strong reason to suspect that ECB action will not have the power to trigger a sustained or sharp downside move in EUR/USD even if policy is adjusted next month. As long as dollar sentiment is weak we expect EUR/USD to remain well supported. We maintain a forecast of EUR/USD1.39 on a 1 month view and while we expect that the USD will win back some ground medium time, we have adjusted higher our 12 mth forecast from EUR/USD1.28 to 1.30”, commented Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank.


EUR/USD levels to consider


The pair is now losing 0.52% at 1.3767 with the immediate support at 1.3740 (100-d MA) ahead of 1.3738 (low Apr.8) and finally 1.3722 (daily cloud base). On the upside, a break above 1.3844 (high May 9) would target 1.3900 (psychological level) and then 1.3997 (2014 highs May 8).









May 09, 2014

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USD/CAD hits 1-week high




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD resumed the upside Tuesday, advancing to a fresh 1-week high during the European session as traders await the BoC quarterly review.


The USD/CAD has gathered momentum and is back headed north following a consolidation phase below 1.0900 after the spike that followed disappointing Canadian employment data last Friday. The pair stretched to a high of 1.0922 and it is currently trading at 1.0915, recording a 0.19% gain on the day.


US retail sales and the BoC quarterly report are on today's docket.


USD/CAD levels to watch


In terms of technical levels, if the USD/CAD breaks above recent highs, it could find next resistances at 1.0960 (May 6 high) and 1.0989 (100-day SMA). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0890 (May 13 low), 1.0873 (May 12 low) and 1.0813 (May 8 low).









May 13, 2014

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EUR/JPY recovery falters after ZEW data




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The recovery of the EUR/JPY faltered a few pips shy of the 141.00 mark as disappointing ZEW survey figures from the EZ and Germany put the shared currency back under pressure.


The German ZEW sentiment survey showed the indicator for economic expectations fell to 33.1 from 43.2 in April. In the Eurozone as a whole, the index fell to 55.2 from 61.2 the previous month. The euro weakened across the board following the figures, with EUR/JPY dropping more than half a cent to a fresh daily low of 140.25.


Having erased completely intraday gains, the EUR/JPY is currently trading at the 140.30 zone, recording a 0.34% loss on the day.


EUR/JPY levels to watch


In terms of technical levels,the pair could find next supports at 140.03 (May 12 low) and 139.87 (May 9 low), while on the other hand resistances are seen at 140.93 (May 13 high), 141.00 (psychological level) and 141.19 (100-day SMA).








May 13, 2014

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EUR/USD remains offered - Investec




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, remarks the weakness surrounding the euro.


Key Quotes


"Comments from ECB's Constancio and Nowotny were the highlight of a very quiet start to the week yesterday. Both took a small step back from Draghi's comments on Thursday, saying it is too early to speculate on June action from the ECB."


"This puts greater emphasis on the data coming out of Europe later this month, although as Draghi stated during the press conference a key influence on their policy decision will be the ECB staff forecasts and bank lending data due in June. A final point worth noting is that Nowotny also hinted that a package of measures could be considered, with his own view being that a rate cut on its own would be insufficient."









May 13, 2014

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Session Recap: Euro weighed by soft ZEW and Buba' story




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro weakened during the European session and fell to fresh lows versus the dollar and the yen following the release of disappointing ZEW data from Germany and the Eurozone. Meanwhile, a media report suggesting the German Bundesbank may be willing to back stimulus measures from the ECB triggered a stronger selloff.


The EUR/USD drop also put the pound and the franc under pressure against the dollar. Elsewhere, the yen and commodity currencies remain little changed as investors await US retail sales data for April.


The EUR/USD broke through Friday’s lows and printed a fresh 5-week trough of 1.3709, while the GBP/USD hit a 10-day low of 1.6824. Meanwhile the USD/CHF rose above 0.8900 and posted its highest in over a month at 0.8902.


Main Headlines in Europe:


Asia EM Express: India awaits election result, Chinese data confirms slowdown


What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? Commerzbank and Scotiabank


European Monetary Union ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment missed forecasts (63.5) in May: Actual (55.2)


Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment missed forecasts (41) in May: Actual (33.1)


New Australian budget favors business


Bundesbank source: Bundesbank open to significant ECB stimulus in June if 2016 inflation forecasts lowered - Dow Jones









May 13, 2014

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EUR/USD locked in consolidation




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD continues to consolidate in a tight range Wednesday, having stabilized after previous date selloff.


The EUR/USD has spent most of the day in a 20-pip range above 1.3700 as investors remain sidelined as they await someone to shed more light on the ECB future action. On Tuesday, media cited unnamed sources stating even the Bundesbank will back ECB easing measures if needed putting Buba’s Head Jens Weidmann’s speech (scheduled at 14:30GMT) in the spotlight.


However, the EUR/USD managed to halt the decline at 1.3688 and is enjoying a quieter phase today. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3707, virtually unchanged since opening.


EUR/USD technical outlook


Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the EUR/USD holds a quite neutral technical tone in short-term charts, and commented that as long as it remains below 1.3745 the downside is exposed “with a break below 1.3690 favoring a downward continuation towards 1.3640/6”.









May 14, 2014

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EMEA EM Express: Polish zloty advances as inflation hits 10-month low; Peace talks begin in Kiev




FXStreet (Łódź) - Peace talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials, with the participation of Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe representatives, have begun on Wednesday in Kiev. On Tuesday Ukraine had suffered the haveiest losses of its troops so far, as pro-Russian militants killed seven of them in an ambush.


Earlier on Wednesday Sergei Naryshkin, the speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, said that the president elected in the Ukrainian vote scheduled for 25 May would not be legitimate, as long as there is no dialogue with the pro-Russian separatists in the eastern regions of the country.


As the RBS economists note, despite the fact that the situation in Ukraine is drifting towards civil war, „the market appears to be taking a view that the economic fallout from this conflict and potential sanctions will be contained.” The Russian ruble reached its strongest level since February on Tuesday, while the RTS Russian stock index gained 1.6% since February.


"Russia is planning its first government RUB bond auction tomorrow in more than a month, a sign of investor confidence returning,” the analysts add. "The EUR is modestly weaker and it may be moving somewhat counter to the RUB, reflecting capital returning to RUB after recent flight.”


Economic data


Polish inflation remained flat month-on-month in April, after rising 0.1% in March, the Central Statistical Office informed on Wednesday. Market consensus pointed to a 0.3% rise.


On an annual basis CPI growth slowed down to a 10-month low of 0.3% from 0.7% and below expectations of 0.6%. The lower than expected reading was brought about by “the disinflationary trend in the rest of Europe and yesterday’s downside surprise in Hungary (albeit very specific to local drivers in the country),” in the opinion of Jacqui Douglas, Senior Global Strategist at TD Securities.


The Polish M3 Money Supply annual numbers came in at 5.4% in April, up from 5.1% in March and above forecasts of 5.2%.


Earlier on Wednesday South Africa published annual Retail Sales for March, which increased by 1%, down from 2.3% in February, a notch below expectations.


Furthermore, the South African Business Confidence Index slid to 92.6 in April from 92.7 in March, the South African Chamber of Commerce & Industry said.


Technicals


Following the release of Polish inflation numbers, the zloty strengthened to 4.1856 against the euro. USD/PLN was up 0.08% at 3.0551.


On Tuesday the USD/PLN daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index overbought. RSI was at 61 at the last close, and has climbed to 65 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 95 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 180 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 3.0790, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 3.0315.


USD/RUB was down 0.45% at 34.7139 at the moment of writing.


On Tuesday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 36 at the last close, and so far it climbed to 49. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 3362 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 3489 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.8589, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.4410.









May 14, 2014

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GBP/JPY falls to 1-month lows below 171.00




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/JPY is falling sharply on Wednesday and recently bottomed at 170.61, the lowest price since April 15. Afterwards bounced slightly but it was unable to rise above 171.00.


The Pound is among the worst performers across the board weakened after the release of the quarterly inflation report from the Bank of England and M. Carney press conference. On the other side, the Yen is having the best day of the week as Treasuries rise pushing US long term bond yields to 2014 lows.


GBP/JPY levels to watch


The pair is breaking an important support and finally moving away from 172.00. To the downside, below 170.60, the next support might be located at 170.00 and then 169.30/40 (April lows).









May 14, 2014

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AUD/USD slips to 0.9370



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The AUD is now giving away part of the recent gains, dragging the AUD/USD back to the 0.9370/65 area.


AUD/USD deflates from 0.9410


After reaching 4-week highs in the boundaries of 0.9410, spot failed to sustain the bull run and is now deflating to the 0.9370 region. Next of relevance in the Australian docket will be April’s Consumer Inflation Expectations due tomorrow (2.4% prev.), ahead of the RBA minutes on Tuesday. “The market is now pricing in just a 16% chance of an interest rate hike in the next 12 months. We hold a Q22014 target of 0.93 and a year-end target of 0.92”, signalled Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank.


AUD/USD key levels


As of writing the pair is up 0.21% at 0.9378 with the next resistance at 0.9427 (high Apr.11) ahead of 0.9461 (high Apr.10) and then 0.9500 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.9227 (low Apr.29) would open the door to 0.9225 (low Apr.4) and finally 0.9184 (50-d MA).










May 14, 2014

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EUR/USD another attempt to 1.3720



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Resilience seems to be the name of the game for the euro so far, with the EUR/USD treading water around the upper band of today’s range at 1.3715/20 so far.


EUR/USD well supported by 1.3700


Nothing of note in the euro area, as German consumer prices and industrial production in the euro bloc both matched consensus. In another tone, Buba’s J.Weidmann poured some cold water over recent comments regarding the implementation of easing measures in the euro area, stating that any new measure should be thoroughly studied and that nothing is decided yet. In the opinion of Tim Riddell, Head of Global Markets Research at ANZ, “last week’s price action has materially damaged the uptrend and raised the opposing potential that a top may have developed at 1.3995 and that EUR may now be poised for retrenchments back to 1.3520 (38.2%) if not 1.3375 (50%)”.


EUR/USD levels to consider


As of writing the pair is advancing 0.08% at 1.3714 with the next resistance at 1.3722 (daily cloud base) followed by 1.3741 (100-d MA) and finally 1.3771 (high May 13). On the downside, a break below 1.3689 (low May 13) would open the door to 1.3672 (low Apr.4) and then 1.3643 (low Feb.27).











May 14, 2014

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EUR/USD little changed on US data



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency kept the composure after a set of positive results from the US docket on Thursday, with the EUR/USD clinging to the 1.3650 region.


EUR/USD supported near 1.3650… for now


The pair is now attempting to stabilize the ongoing decline in the mid-1.3600s region so far, after US Claims dropped below 300K for the first time since 2007 and the Empire State index jumped to 19.01 in May from April’s 1.29. Further data showed acceleration in the consumer prices gauged by the Core CPI, rising 1.8% YoY vs. 1.7% previous and headline CPI is back to 2% (last time was July 2013). “Expect initial resistance into 1.3725 while any failure to reclaim 1.3750 may confine the pair lower subsequently. Meanwhile, the 1.3690/00 region may support on initial dips”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.


EUR/USD levels to watch


As of writing the pair is losing 0.36% at 1.3665 facing the next support at 1.3643 (low Feb.27) followed by 1.3625 (50% of 1.3477-1.3773) and finally 1.3585 (low Feb.13). On the upside, a break above 1.3723 (high May 15) would target 1.3731 (high May 15) en route to 1.3741 (100-d MA).











May 15, 2014

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GBP/USD recovers from 1-month low



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD climbed to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session as the greenback lost momentum following a short-lived spike.


The GBP/USD managed to recover after hitting a 1-month low of 1.6732 amid broad USD strength and despite solid US data recently released the greenback failed to hold gains. The GBP/USD bounced to a high of 1.6782 and it is currently trading at 1.6775, up 0.07% on the day.


GBP/USD technical levels


In terms of technical levels, next supports are seen at 1.6722 (50-day SMA) and 1.6700 (psychological level) ahead of 1.6669 (Apr 15 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.6782 (May 15 high), 1.6800 (psychological level) and 1.6839 (21-day SMA).











May 15, 2014

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GBP/USD looks to extend above 1.6800




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is now pushing higher on Friday, lifting the GBP/USD to test intraday highs near 1.6820.


GBP/USD rebounds from 1.6790


It seems the buying interest returned around the sterling during the European afternoon, with spot now looking to break above the overnight’s congestion pattern and extend the advance beyond 1.6800 the figure. “The strong performance of the UK economy, related market belief that the BoE could move on rates ahead of its own (Inflation Report) expectations, and (for now) diminished political risk as the government’s poll standings improve, justifies a firmer track for GBP that extends beyond the next two quarters”, observed the Currency Research team at BNZ.


GBP/USD levels to consider


As of writing the pair is up 0.13% at 1.6813 with the next resistance at 1.6840 (21-d MA). On the downside, a break below 1.6727 (23.6% of 1.5854-1.6997) would expose 1.6721 (low Apr.16) and then 1.6700 (psychological level).












May 16, 2014

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USD/JPY pops after solid US housing data




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY received a mild boost and printed a marginal new high for the day after better-than-expected US housing data.


US housing starts grew 13.2% in April to 1072 K vs. 980K expected, while building permits rose to 1080K vs 1010K expected. The USD/JPY climbed nearly 20 pips on the data and hit a daily high of 101.66 although the movement lacked momentum as investors remain pretty much sidelined ahead of the weekend.


USD/JPY technical levels


At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 101.55 area, little changed on the day but headed for its second weekly loss in a row. As for technical levels, the pair could find next supports at 101.30 (May 15 low), 101.10 (200-day SMA) and 100.75 (Feb 5 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 101.66 (May 16 high), 101.85 (10-day SMA) and 102.10 (May 15 high).












May 16, 2014

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USD/CAD remains capped by 1.0900




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD remained little changed near daily highs after the latest string of US data showed housing starts rose more than expected in April.


On the macroeconomic domain, data showed foreign investment in Canadian securities unexpectedly dropped in March, while US housing starts grew 13.2% in April to 1072 K vs. 980K expected. However, the USD/CAD was barely affected, and trades nearly flat at the 1.0880 zone. However, the USD/CAD is on track to post its third weekly loss in a row.


USD/CAD technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate resistances at 1.0890 (May 15 high), 1.0925 (May 13 high) and 1.0950 (21-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0850 (May 16 low), 1.0813 (May 13 low) and 1.0800 (psychological level).












May 16, 2014

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EUR/USD around 1.33 in 12-month – J.P.Morgan Private Bank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Sara Yates, Global Head of FX Strategy at J,P.Morgan Private Bank, keeps the target at 1.33 for the EUR/USD in a 12-month horizon.


Key Quotes


“In our opinion, EURUSD is unlikely to fall much below 1.35 unless the ECB does something to aggressively reverse its shrinking balance sheet and/or US 10y yields break above 3%”.


“We think there is some possibility that the ECB announces its intention to stops its drain of liquidity created by the Securities Market Programme (SMP) at the June meeting. However, we believe this would slow the speed at which the ECB’s balance sheet shrinks rather than increase it”.


“We think there remains too much political resistance to launch a quantitative easing programme (which would dramatically increase the size of the balance sheet) and that US yields are unlikely to move substantially higher until Q4 2014”.


“We continue to forecast EURUSD at 1.33 in 1 year”.













May 19, 2014

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UK housing sector, a challenge for the BoE? - Investec




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, notes the BoE will be closely watching the developments in the housing sector.


Key Quotes


"The big story over the weekend was Pfizer’s renewed £69bn bid for AstraZeneca which would create the world’s largest pharmaceutical company if it goes ahead. It remains to be seen how many overtures the UK giant can resist from its American rival and as it stands, the FX markets are yet to factor in a takeover that seems increasingly likely as GBPUSD opened where we left it on Friday."



"In other UK news, the rapid growth of the housing market is some cause for concern for market commentators who await to see how the Bank of England will look to take the steam out of the housing sector. BoE Governor Mark Carney, speaking to Sky news over the weekend, talked of ‘deep, deep’ structural problems in the sector and his concern that the BoE itself couldn’t build more houses. He again indicated the BoE would do what it could from its end, via the Financial Policy Committee, with adjustments to lending standards and loan limits on income mentioned."













May 19, 2014

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