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EMU: Trade surplus unchanged at €12B in December

Eurozone Trade surplus s.a. remained unchanged at €12 billion in December, according to data released today by Eurostat. Eurozone trade surplus n.s.a. narrowed to €11.7B in December, from €13.0 billion in November and against expectations of widening slightly to €13.1 billion.

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Feb 15, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD trading at 1.5487/88 after failed recovery attempt

A recent recovery attempt at the 1.5560 mark was stymied, driving the GBP/USD lower during the late morning of the European session Friday. With weak GBP data leaving a bitter taste in investors mouths, the pair breached support at 1.5500 again, and is now trading at 1.5487/88 at the time of writing, down -0.03%.

Earlier today in the United Kingdom, Retail Sales (YoY) were reported at -0.6% In January, against estimates calling for +0.8%. Moreover, Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -0.6% in January, missing expectations of +0.4%. Finally Retail Sales ex-fuel (YoY) grew only +0.2%, against projections of +1.4%.

Briefing the technicals, after a movement below calculated support at 1.5500, the ICN.com analyst team points to additional supports at 1.5455 and finally 1.5415. On the positive side, a break above 1.5525 will trigger resistances at 1.5580 and 1.5610.

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Feb 15, 2013

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Forex Flash: Europe trend growth below "Great Moderation" – Merrill Lynch

After running several scenarios (one hypotheses on the speed at which investment recovers and whether it can reach pre-crisis levels; and another taking into account the impact of higher unemployment (and the capacity to reduce it), demographics and the quality of education) and looking at the fundamentals behind an economy’s capacity to grow (investment in physical and human capital, and the ability to innovate and embed innovation into business) and capacity to innovate, the overall result is that the capacity to grow (trend growth) remains below that observed during the “Great Moderation” (1995-07), according to BofA Merrill Lynch analysts.

"Having said that, assuming European productivity converges with that of the US, we expect healthy trend growth after 2015", they wrote, pointing to elevated deflation risks, due to steep loss in cyclical production. "Consequently, in our exercise, we assume the negative output gap that opened up in 2008 remains large throughout the crisis period and closes only by end-2014 - an assumption in line with most international organizations’ projections", they continued, expecting inflation to decelerate to end-2014. In case inflation decelerates faster, ECB would likely "need to cut rates further and possibly experiment with more unconventional policies".

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Feb 15, 2013

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Forex: USD/CAD rallies after US and Canada data

From 1.0025 area, that was serving as resistance during the European morning, the USD/CAD broke through and rallied to as high as 1.0067 on Canada and US data releases.

Canada manufacturing shipments fell -3.1% in December, a wider drop than the -0.8% expected. US NY empire state manufacturing came in at 10.08 in February, surprising analysts that were only expecting an improvement from -7.78 to -2.00.

Although capacity utilization in the US improved from 78.8% (revised from 79.3%) to 79.1% in January, beating 78.9% consensus, industrial production fell -0.1%, instead of rising 0.2% as expected. Last month's data was revised lower, from 0.4% to 0.3%.

MIG Bank analysts expect the USD/CAD to edge lower as it has failed to break its resistance at 1.0100. "The inability to break the resistance area between 1.0057 and 1.0100 could be the start of a medium-term bearish reversal pattern", wrote analyst Bijoy Kar, pointing to an hourly resistance at 1.0044 (13/02/2013 high), while supports can be found at 1.0000 (14/02/2013 low) and 0.9933 (07/02/2013 low).

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Feb 15, 2013

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American equity markets in the green Friday following G20

The US Stock market experienced a slightly positive opening Friday, as investors digest the statement of the G20, which has sent the yen plummeting. In the United States, Net Long-term TIC Flows (December) were reported at $64.2B, relative to $54.2B in the previous month. Moreover, Industrial Production (MoM) has contracted -0.1% in January, against expectations for a +0.2% growth. Finally, the Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (February) came in at 76.3, vs. projections of 74.8.

Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ rose +0.09% as it settles in region of 3202.20, up +2.76 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in positive territory, operating at 1522.88, ascending -1.52 points or +0.13% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has moved higher at the opening as well, trading in the zone of 13981.15, presently +0.06% after a movement of +7.76 points.

Sectors are all in the green at the opening, however the Energy and Basic Materials sectors have distinguished themselves as the lone losers thus far, falling -0.43% and -0.23% respectively. In other news, the price of crude has settled above USD $94.45 Friday.

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Feb 15, 2013

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Italian campaign works to swing remaining voters in final week before election

Italian voters have braced for the impact of an upcoming onslaught of tax-cut promises and attacks on the European Union as the four leading candidates begin the final stretch of the campaign, taking to airwaves and a mad scramble to visit to all corners of the republic before the polls are opened.

After a prolonged period of suspense and campaigning, Italy goes to the polls February. 24-25 in the first parliamentary election since Europe’s sovereign debt crisis roiled the political establishment into a proverbial maelstrom. However, despite the recent buildup, nearly 20% of Italian voters are still fair game to the candidates, which pollsters say constitutes a large enough proportion as to potentially decide the election in the final week. However, the immediate risk is an inconclusive result that denies victory to any and leads to gridlock, requiring a second vote.

“The biggest issue is, is it going to be easy to form a government?” wrote Marc Ostwald, a rates strategist at Monument Securities Ltd. in London. Silvio Berlusconi kicks off the week with a rally today in Milan, capital of the battleground region of Lombardy near the Alpine foothills. The former premier will reiterate his pledge to hand out more than $5 billion in property-tax refunds as he seeks to build a blocking minority in the Senate. Berlusconi’s main rival, front-runner, Pier Luigi Bersani may appear on the other end of Italy in Cosenza, Calabria.

The duel between Bersani and Berlusconi, whose respective forces have dominated Italian politics since 1994, is muddied by the campaigns of Prime Minister Mario Monti, a professor-turned- politician at age 69, and comedian Beppe Grillo. Monti has sought to position himself as a kingmaker by courting both Bersani and the forces backing Berlusconi. Grillo has excluded alliances and embraced the role of spoiler.

Italians face trying times as they are being called to vote with the economy in a quagmire, culminating in its fourth recession since 2001, and having contracted for six quarters through the final three months of last year. However, despite Italy’s 10-year government bond yield, which reached a euro-era record of 7.261% on Nov. 25, 2011, the yields were holding fast at just 4.409% earlier today.

The election outcome “remains highly uncertain,” Giada Giani, an economist at Citigroup Inc. wrote in a research report last week. “Small moves in the votes can lead to large swings in the Senate seat allocation.” The upper house of Italy’s parliament is where Bersani, a former communist and labor-union favorite, is most vulnerable as seats are doled out on a regional basis, rendering national popularity less meaningful.

Bersani will probably need a post- vote alliance with Monti to secure a majority, a move that would please bond investors satisfied with the premier’s 15-month tenure, according to Citigroup and Eurasia Group. Bersani had 33.8% support in an SWG Institute survey published February 8, the day before Italy’s two-week polling blackout began. That compares with 27.8% for Berlusconi, 18.8% for Grillo and 13.4% for Monti. According to Italian election law, bonus seats are handed out in both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, allowing a party to secure a majority without winning 50% of the votes.

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Feb 18, 2013

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Forex Flash: EUR/USD to target 1.3000 in three-month window – UBS

Alongside the current account data, the ECB is also due to release December's portfolio flow data today. The creation of the ECB's OMT program has had a stabilizing effect on sovereign bond markets, which triggered a return of exiled capital in November. In fact portfolio inflows are now much larger than those associated with the current account surplus. We expect this pattern to continue in December as memories of the crisis fade a little further.

However, “when netted-off against outflows by Eurozone residents, the portfolio effect on the currency is more muted than it first appears. There has been no repeat of the enormous repatriation seen in Q4 2008, and Eurozone investors were net buyers of overseas assets in November. Also, like the temporary current account surplus, the return of portfolio inflows can only go so far. Ultimately, we expect broad-based dollar strength to come through later this year, taking the EUR/USD back down to 1.3000 in 3m.” writes Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS.

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Feb 18, 2013

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Forex Flash: What was real Chinese GDP growth in 2012?

Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Global research questions whether China´s official GDP announcements are reliable or actual GDP growth is closer to 5.5%.

Green begins by commenting that if there was an index for suspicion about China´s official statistics, it would be off the chart. While the global financial crisis added plenty of statistical smog, the issue with Chinese data is not new but scepticism has to be reasonable deployed as some numbers are better than others and the problems vary across different data sets.

He notes that headline statistics are particularly important. He writes, “The government has very clear annual GDP targets, and these numbers hit newspaper headlines. We believe the GDP numbers, especially the first prints, are possibly subject to smoothing at times of super-fast or unusually slow growth. We have previously explored various proxies to track the industrial and investment cycle (electricity, freight, diesel, and concrete production, for instance).”

Green notes that consumption is trickier to monitor, though he does like “KFC same-store, car and Hong Kong retail sales, to name a few proxies.” Across the board, he notes that the proxies told the same story from Q3-2011 onwards: an economy slowing significantly through to Q3-2012, before those shoots did their green thing in Q4. The official y/y GDP numbers, however, attempt to tell a different story: pretty stable growth. The official q/q numbers suggest that Q3 was actually the strongest quarter in 2012.

Questioning why this is the case, he notes that one e hypothesis is that there is a problem with the GDP deflator, i.e., the number that is used to measure overall inflation and that gets us from nominal to real growth. He cites two studies which conclude that service-sector inflation is underestimated within the GDP deflator. Considering Chinese inflation, he feels that it is not too bad, despite still having some obvious issues however.

Overall, he notes that growth boomed in 1992 with Deng Xiaoping‟s revival of reform, but then slowed sharply with Zhu Rongji‟s retrenchment policies of the mid-1990s. The economy was further weakened by domestic restructuring and the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-98. Then, with the state-enterprise reforms of the mid-1990s feeding through, China‟s entry into the WTO in 2001, and strong global growth, China‟s economy took off again in 2001, peaking out in 2007.

From that point Green notes that growth has slowed considerably since the height of the stimulus. he writes, “Our guesstimates for the past two years look considerably weaker than the official estimates: our guesstimates for 2011 and 2012 are 7.2% and 5.5%, respectively, compared with the official prints of 9.3% and 7.3%.” He continues to explain that “When we say guesstimates, that is exactly what we mean. We have to use official data to question official data; we do not have access to an independent nationwide assessment of service-sector inflation, and it requires a leap of faith to choose the alternative services series we have.”

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Feb 18, 2013

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Forex: AUD/USD trading at support near 1.0310

The AUD/USD has spent the afternoon of European trading in a tailspin, as the yesterday’s gains now seem like a distant memory. After the publication of US data, the pair has found traction at the 1.0310 support, where the pair is presently testing in these moments, already suffering a decline of -0.41%.

In the United States, Building Permits (MoM) were reported at 0.925M in January, beating estimates of only 0.915M. Meanwhile the vaunted Producer Price index ex Food and Energy (MoM and YoY) grew +0.2% in January (in line with expectations of +0.2%), and +1.8% (exceeding projections calling for only +1.6%) respectively. Finally, the Producer Price Index (MoM and YoY) climbed only +0.2% in January (slightly missing a consensus of +0.3%) and yielded +1.4% in January (consistent with projections) respectively.

According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The AUD/USD dropped sharply towards 1.0310, however we still think that the possibility for positivity is valid in that the pair couldn’t break 1.0275 levels. Moreover, the linear regression indicators worry us with negativity, but at the same time we will count on stability above the mentioned support at 1.0275 to keep the suggested scenario valid.”

ICN.com analysts posit the next supports at 1.0310, then 1.0275 and finally 1.0220. Should the pair initiate from a prolonged recovery, a break below the 1.0345 resistance will usher in the additional means of corrective structures at 1.0385 and 1.0400.

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Feb 20, 2013

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Forex Flash: 10-year US treasuries eye FOMC – RBS

According to William O'Donnell at RBS, “We continue to see a near-term 1.70% to 2.11% range for 10-year US Treasuries. Key support remains at 2.11% for 10yrs, while the first resistance is at 1.90% - 1.93%. We recommend to watch for the ascending bear channel lines (1.93% in 10s and 3.10% in bonds) – breaks through could extend the rally while a close above 2.11% in 10s opens up 2.30%.”

Treasuries have cheapened further overnight with 10y note yields now sitting a few bp for 10-month highs as the markets fret about today's release of the FOMC Minutes. Very dovish Minutes from the Bank of England were outweighed by a barely covered 10y Bund auction and a solid performance by risk assets (peripheral spreads up to 8bp tighter led by good inflows).

Asian stock markets were led higher by Korean shares, European stocks are mixed and S&P futures are showing +0.5pt here at 7am. Our overnight Treasury flows saw asset managers buying of 5yrs versus FV futures, central bank selling in 3-years, European bank selling in 10-years and a fund manager buying in 30-yrs. Overnight Treasury broker volume perked up to 114% of the 10-day average.

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Feb 20, 2013

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Forex: USD/JPY wavers after US data

USD/JPY wavered smoothly, rising to 93.20 and then pulling back to the 93.10 area, as investors continue to assess the latest string of US data, which showed jobless claims rose more than expected last week, while consumer prices were flat overall in January.

USD/JPY is currently trading around 93.10, still down 0.5% on the day, having bounced from a low of 92.78 during the European session.

As for technical levels, on the upside immediate resistances are seen at 93.52 (100-hour SMA), followed by 93.85 (intraday high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 92.78 (intraday low) and 92.65 (21-day SMA).

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Feb 21, 2013

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Forex Flash: NZD/USD uptrend hinges on stability above 0.8300 – Westpac

The RBNZ inflation expectations survey (Tuesday) will be the week’s highlight for markets. According to Global Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “We don’t expect a dramatic reversal of the 18-month decline in expectations just yet, indeed the last few CPI prints have been surprisingly low so this survey has downside risk.” The other important release is the Q4 terms of trade (Monday), which could surprise with a bounce based on lower import prices (currency effect). Migration (Wednesday), trade balance (Wed), building permits (Thursday) and business confidence (Thursday) complete a busy week.

Ultimately, “the 9 month long uptrend is at risk if 0.8300 below gives way. Global sentiment has soured during the past two days, and RBNZ Governor Wheeler talked the NZD moderately lower in a speech earlier this week. Should the Italian elections this weekend scare the bulls, the extreme long positioning in the NZD would be at risk of being pared. If 0.8300 holds, however, we will retain positive multi-month bias towards

0.8570 next.” writes Callow.

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Feb 21, 2013

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Bearish pressure increases on the Euro

The European currency extended its decline against the dollar on Thursday amid renewed signs the euro zone economy is struggling after the region's PMI came in lower than expected. Besides, the US dollar remains underpinned expectations the Fed may stop providing monetary stimulus after yesterday's FOMC minutes.

"As markets continue to digest the news, the evolving view is that the minutes might not be quite as hawkish as first perceived, but they are still hawkish enough to have global equity markets under significant pressure today and the greenback and yen benefiting from the unsettled market backdrop", says Nick Bennenbroek, Head of Currency Strategy at Wells Fargo Bank. "Next week's testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke now takes on added importance as a barometer of whether the minutes simply reflect ongoing discussion, or a real changed in the Fed's policy view".

Elsewhere, the pound fell to a 2 ½-year low versus the greenback although it managed to trim losses, while the yen strengthened dragging USD/JPY below the 93.00 mark. Stocks and oil are broadly lower on risk aversion, but gold advanced slightly.

Euro falls below trendline support

The EUR/USD broke below the 1.3200 psychological level, and more importantly below an ascendant trendline coming off July 2012 lows, turning the immediate term and longer term bearish for the cross. A close below this level would reinforce the bearish perspective with 1.3110 as next target (100-day SMA) ahead of the 1.3070 zone (38.2% retracement of the 1.2041/1.3710 rally).

On the upside, the 1.3235 area offers immediate resistance to the EUR/USD, but the pair would need to regain the 1.3300 level to ease the immediate pressure.

In this regard, the BBH analyst team notes that "serious technical damage" is being inflicted. "The euro is falling through the uptrend drawn off last July (Draghi-induced) lows", they commented. "It comes in just below $1.3200 today. The next technical target is near $1.3070-80".

Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analysts note that for the balance of the week their view remains tilted to U.S. dollar strength and foreign currency weakness "as market potentially remain somewhat unsettled after the Fed comments, and depending on whether Germany’s IFO confidence survey shows similar weakness to today's Eurozone confidence data".

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Feb 21, 2013

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Forex Flash: Spain remains on the edge - BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that Spain´s situation remains notably precarious, with EC calculations showing Spain as having ran a budget deficit of 10.2% of GDP last year, the most in three years.

They comment that it projects that a deficit this year of 6.7%, which seems a Herculean task to meet. They finish by writing, “There has been some suggestion that Spain could be given more time to reach its deficit targets, but given the lack of progress last year and some backtracking this year, it too may undermine credibility.”

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Feb 22, 2013

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Forex Flash: 10-year US treasuries await Fed testimony tomorrow – RBS

Markets continue to see a near-term 1.70% to 2.11% range in 10-year US treasuries Monday – According to the RBS Research Team, “key resistance remains at 2.11% in 10yrs. We recommend watching for ascending bear channel lines (1.945% in 10-years and 3.135% in bonds) – a break of which could extend the rally while a close above 2.11% in 10-years opens up 2.30%.”

Treasuries are little changed as markets await Ben Bernanke's testimony tomorrow and following the exit polls of the Italian election. Once past these, market focus is likely to shift to month end and a decent Treasury extension along with a likely trip over the Sequester cliff at the end of the week.

China's HSBC Flash PMI slipped to a 4-month low but Japanese stocks rallied sharply on word that Kuroda of the ADB would likely become the next BOJ Governor. EU spreads see semi-core little changed and peripherals modestly tighter. Moody's warned that the recent European Commission forecast for economic contraction this year is a credit negative for all European sovereigns.

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Feb 25, 2013

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Forex Flash: 10-year US treasuries await Fed testimony tomorrow – RBS

Markets continue to see a near-term 1.70% to 2.11% range in 10-year US treasuries Monday – According to the RBS Research Team, “key resistance remains at 2.11% in 10yrs. We recommend watching for ascending bear channel lines (1.945% in 10-years and 3.135% in bonds) – a break of which could extend the rally while a close above 2.11% in 10-years opens up 2.30%.”

Treasuries are little changed as markets await Ben Bernanke's testimony tomorrow and following the exit polls of the Italian election. Once past these, market focus is likely to shift to month end and a decent Treasury extension along with a likely trip over the Sequester cliff at the end of the week.

China's HSBC Flash PMI slipped to a 4-month low but Japanese stocks rallied sharply on word that Kuroda of the ADB would likely become the next BOJ Governor. EU spreads see semi-core little changed and peripherals modestly tighter. Moody's warned that the recent European Commission forecast for economic contraction this year is a credit negative for all European sovereigns.

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Feb 25, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD trapped around 1.5110/20

The sterling continues its march north on Monday, advancing above the key level at 1.5100, as investors continue to digest the UK’s sovereign debt≠≠≠ downgrade by agency Moody’s.

Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU, commented, “With fiscal policy set to remain tight, the burden to stimulate growth remains upon the BoE through looser monetary policy, and a weak/weaker pound”. The analyst added that a fragile external demand could hamper any support from a weak GBP, and these efforts could echo in higher inflation, affecting real incomes and consumption.

As of writing, GBP/USD is up 0.09% at 1.5108 facing the next resistance at 1.5330 (high Feb.22) ahead of 1.5393 (MA10d) and finally 1.5452 (high Feb.20).

On the downside, a breach of 1.5073 (hourly low Feb.25) would bring 1.4949 (low Jul.12 2010) en route to 1.4873 (low Jul.1 2010).

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Feb 25, 2013

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Forex: USD/CAD testing Friday’s tops, around 1.0260

The Canadian dollar is depreciating against the buck on Monday, breaking above the congestion range between 1.0220 and 1.0240 to revisit Friday’s highs around 1.0260, as risk aversion is creeping back to the markets,

“USD/CAD has run into better selling interest in the mid 1.02 area since Friday but the chart patterns suggest consolidation rather than a reversal in what remains, in our opinion, a very strongly-entrenched bull trend across a range of timeframes… We rather expect USD losses to remain limited currently and for USD dips will remain well supported and are a buy”, assessed the research team at TD Securities.

USD/CAD is up 0.35% at 1.0260 with the next resistance at 1.0342 (high Jun.29) ahead of 1.0363 (high Jun.28) and then 1.0382 (high Jun.6).

On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0113 (MA10d) would expose 1.0101 (high Jan.25) and then 1.0055 (low Feb.18).

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Feb 25, 2013

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Forex Flash: Fed's Bernanke speech about QE as main focus TD Securities

More important than US housing reports (house prices for December and new home sales for January) and Conference Boards consumer confidence index for February (where markets are looking for a bounce from the 14-month low of 58.6 up to 61.2), TD Securities analysts point to Fed Bernankes semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT as the main focus of the day.

This will be the first update since the Fed adopted open-ended QE, and there is little doubt that Congress will be interested in exactly how and when the Fed will end the program, wrote analyst Annette Beacher.

Aside from Bernankes updated outlook on the economy (probably slightly more upbeat), the market will be looking for any further clarification on when QE will end and what specific triggers the Fed may use to gauge the end of the program, she added.

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Feb 26, 2013

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Forex Flash: Fed's Bernanke speech about QE as main focus TD Securities

More important than US housing reports (house prices for December and new home sales for January) and Conference Boards consumer confidence index for February (where markets are looking for a bounce from the 14-month low of 58.6 up to 61.2), TD Securities analysts point to Fed Bernankes semi-annual testimony to the Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT as the main focus of the day.

This will be the first update since the Fed adopted open-ended QE, and there is little doubt that Congress will be interested in exactly how and when the Fed will end the program, wrote analyst Annette Beacher.

Aside from Bernankes updated outlook on the economy (probably slightly more upbeat), the market will be looking for any further clarification on when QE will end and what specific triggers the Fed may use to gauge the end of the program, she added.

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Feb 26, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD rejected from 1.5215

The recovery of the pound against the dollar stalled once again at the 1.5215 area, where the 100-hour SMA reinforces static resistance. GBP/USD then fell back below the 1.5200 mark and even hit a fresh daily low of 1.5127, weighed by BoE's Tucker saying "real fx rates need to be lower".

However, GBP/USD found support and managed to recover some ground. The pair is currently trading around 1.5160, where it remains virtually unchanged since opening.

"Cable tried moving up but is facing resistance near 1.5200-15 levels. The bigger trend remains bearish and a failure to rise past 1.5200-15 will be a signal that the short covering is losing steam and a fall towards 1.4850 can well be seen in the coming days", says the Kshitij Consultancy Services Team. "A rise above 1.52 can push it further towards 1.5250-300".

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Feb 26, 2013

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Forex Flash: USD to weaken on today, helping EUR/USD to consolidate - Commerzbank

After last FOMC minutes making investors think the Fed is “hawk in a dove plumage”, Bernanke's speech yesterday “has caused market participants to rethink this view” and Fed's Chairman will speak again today in front of the House of Representatives’ committee.

“Just like yesterday he will show his commitment to QE3 and underline that the Fed will support QE3 for as long as necessary and that at present the benefits of QE3 outweigh the risks – even though he discussed the risks in detail”, wrote analyst Antje Praefcke.

“The statement in the minutes that “many” FOMC members showed concern about the side effects and risks of QE3 was omitted by Bernanke yesterday”, Praefcke continued, explaining that there was no indication yesterday of a possible end or changes to the scale of QE3 and he will avoid that again today.

However, solid and better than expected US data (Richmond Fed Index, consumer confidence, home sales) made up for Bernanke’s dovish approach. Commerzbank analysts expect US Durable goods orders for January to disappoint today. “However this is due to one-off effects and the underlying trend still continues to point clearly upwards”, they explained, predicting USD weakness today, helping the euro to consolidate somewhat. “But in the end the effect is likely to be limited while the crisis bogey still puts pressure on the euro”, Praefcke concluded.

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Feb 27, 2013

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US: Durable Good Orders fell 5.2% in January

The Commerce Department has informed that orders for US long-lasting goods contracted 5.2% during January, missing expectations at -4.4%, and down from +3.7% (revised) in December.

If we strip the Transportation sector, orders rose 1.9%, above estimates at +0.2% and better than December’s +1.0% (revised).

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Feb 27, 2013

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Forex: USD/JPY falls after US durable goods orders

The dollar weakened further against the yen and slipped to fresh daily lows after data showed US durable goods orders dropped more than expected in January as defense spending fell the most in more than a decade and demand for aircraft plunged although outside those volatile categories, there was underlying strength in orders.

USD/JPY lost nearly 30 pips on the data and printed a fresh daily low of 91.33. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 91.40, recording a 0.6% loss on the day.

As for technical levels, next supports could be found at 91.33 (intraday low), 91.00 (psychological level) and 90.85 (Feb 25 low). On the upside, resistances are seen at 92.25 (intraday high), 92.80 (100-hour SMA) and 93.00 (psychological level).

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Feb 27, 2013

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: EUR under siege as Italy continues to foment risk – Westpac

According to the Westpac Strategy Team, “The EUR seems unlikely to recover much further with 1.32/1.3300 seen as an ideal zone to initiate shorts for a bigger sell-off down to the 1.27/1.2800 zone.” Moreover, discussions for a grand coalition in Italy will likely last weeks and may not yield much. Fresh elections may be called but that will only occur after election laws are re-written. Yet the Italian parliament does not convene until 15 March.

The bottom line is that the odds a more market friendly Italian government is installed in the very near-term appear small and overall key event risks in coming sessions do not appear helpful to EUR. Draghi is sure to tone down the “positive contagion” commentary and given the stall in the Feb Eurozone PMI’s, he should emphasize that easy monetary conditions are here to stay for a while.

Ultimately, “He is likely to reiterate that the ECB’s OMT remains in place and ready for use but is likely to emphasize a tough love approach - recipients must sign up to reform and austerity.” the team predicts.

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Feb 28, 2013

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