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  1. #471
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    Date : 7th January 2021.

    Big Surprise from Germany & US data Preview.



    EURUSD, H4

    German manufacturing orders jumped 2.3% m/m in November, which unexpectedly continued the pretty impressive rebound that the sector has seen since the last lockdown. Expectations had been for a slight correction from the 3.3% rise in October, but in the event the inflow continued at a robust pace, with domestic orders rising 1.6% m/m and foreign orders 2.9% m/m. The annual rate is now at 6.4% y/y – based on the seasonally adjusted series, and thus clearly above pre-virus levels. This is of course data that preceded the latest lockdown, although it is expected that the renewed tightening of virus restrictions won’t hit production too much, even if it means further hardship for the services sector. The latter also means that there still is the risk of a technical recession despite the impressive orders number. Indeed, part of the surge in orders may be due to precautionary stock building in the UK ahead of the official Brexit date and that could mean a drop back in orders at the start of this year as companies reduce stockpiles.

    US Initial jobless claims preview: Initial claims are expected to slip -7,000 to 780,000 in the week ended January 2 after a -19,000 drop to 787,000 from 806,000 at the end of December. Claims have been elevated in recent weeks amid the surge in virus cases and the more stringent lockdowns have seen renewed layoffs. Additionally, the holidays have been distorting. Remember, seasonal adjustments were switched in September, and the usual seasonal rise in NSA claims through the holidays may be lifting the reported SA data given the unusually high level of claims. Claims are expected to average 835,000 in December, following averages of 749,000 in November, 786,000 in October, and 855,000 in September. The 892,000 December BLS survey week reading exceeded recent survey week readings of 748,000 in November, 797,000 in October, and 866,000 in September. Expectations are still for a December payroll rise around 100,000 though risk is for a weaker print, and potentially a decline, (Barclays have a -50,000 figure) especially given the -123k decline in the ADP report yesterday.

    US trade balance preview: the deficit is expected to widen to -$67.2 bln in November, a 14-year high, after edging out to -$63.1 bln in October, and was at a 12-year high of -$64.9 bln in August. We expect exports to increase 0.7% to $183.2 bln, while imports rise 2.2% to $250.4 bln. The November petroleum price rebound has likely boosted both exports and imports of petroleum. We saw November pull-backs in vehicle trade after huge increases in every month since June, but large declines in each prior month since February. We expect a sustained high November bilateral goods deficit between the US and China of about -$30 bln as businesses rebuild inventories. For the year, we expect a -$55.9 bln average deficit, versus a -$48.1 bln average in 2019.

    US ISM services index preview: we expect the index to dip to 55.0 in December. This would be a third straight monthly decline as service sector activity slows, especially with the delayed stimulus, the surge in virus cases and renewed shutdowns. The index had surged to 58.1 in July, an 11-year high, amid reopenings of the economy. It was at 54.9 last December. Producer sentiment has remained firm despite the fall’s moderation as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click [url=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html]HERE[/url] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html]HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

    [url=https://analysis.hotforex.com/]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  2. #472
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    Date : 11th January 2021.

    Events to Look Out for This Week.




    2021 has started and even though it is set to be far better than 2020, January remains as stormy and volatile as its predecessor. In the week ahead, the markets are expected to continue to buy into the recovery story. In regards to data, this will be a week of increased attention to the global inflation releases and production numbers out of the UK and China. The markets also remain focused on potential further lockdowns and tighter restrictions.

    Monday – 11 January 2021

    Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery broadened further, as manufacturing sentiment measures were firm and a key non-manufacturing sentiment measure remained elevated. CPI is expected to accelerate to in December as well with a 0.1% y/y pace in December following the 0.5% decline last month.

    BoE’s Governor Bailey speech (GBP, GMT 15:00)

    Tuesday – 12 January 2021

    BoE’s Broadbent speech (GBP, GMT 10:00)
    Fed’s Brainard speech (USD, GMT 14:35)
    Fed’s Rosengren speech (USD, GMT 19:00)

    Wednesday – 13 January 2021

    Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) –The December inflation reports should reveal a big energy-led gain for CPI with a moderate core price rise, and big increases for 0.4%m/m growth which would result in a 1.3% headline y/y increase.

    Thursday – 14 January 2021

    Imports and Exports (CNY, GMT N/A) – Consumer demand picked up and exports also climbed, as trade flows resumed after the weakness in Q2 in China. This is expected to be confirmed also in December’s release as imports expected to raise by 0.5% and exports by 15%.

    Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 13:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of January 9 should remain elevated, though a -17k down-tick in the weekly pace to 770k has been assumed, after a -3k drop to 787k from 790k. Seasonal adjustment for initial claims was switched to being additive from multiplicative in September, and the usual seasonal rise in NSA claims through the holidays may be lifting the reported SA data with the new seasonal factors given the unusually high level of claims. We are likely also seeing a lift from expanding coronavirus restrictions.

    Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:30)

    Friday – 15 January 2021

    Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 00:30) – UK nations have gone into a ‘tier 5’ lockdown, the most restrictive level since the full lockdown of spring last year, although manufacturing, auto repair businesses, DIY and garden stores, remain open, along with food sellers. High street retail, aviation and other public transport, along with the hospitality sector, are bearing the brunt of the lockdown, as in other nations, although the percentage impact on GDP from these sectors being closed is bigger in the UK than most peers. The UK saw a bigger peak-to-trough GDP contraction than any other G20 nation in 2020 as a consequence of the national and global countermeasures taken to table Covid-19. With UK in lockdown season since November, November’s GDP figure expected to present a severe decline to 4.0% m/m with Manufacturing and industrial production at 0.7% m/m and 0.4% m/m respectively from 1.7% m/m and 1.3% m/m in October.

    US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) –A -0.2% December retail sales headline dip is forecasted with a -0.4% ex-autos decline, following respective November decreases of -1.1% and -0.9%. Unit vehicle sales rebounded in December, and this should support the auto dealer component. Typical strength is being undermined by rising coronavirus restrictions during the holiday shopping season.

    Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.2% December PPI headline rise is anticipated with a 0.1% core price gain, following gains of 0.1% for both in November. As expected readings would result in a y/y headline PPI metric of 0.6%, down from 0.8% in November. A rebound in energy prices should boost the headline. Oil prices are rebounding after a fall pause and a bottom in April, thanks to a better supply-demand balance in the petroleum sector, and supply constraints for some sectors should remain problematic into Q1.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html]HERE[/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html]HERE[/URL] to register for FREE!

    [URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/URL]

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  3. #473
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    Date : 12th January 2021.

    Market Update – January 5 – Georgia on everybody’s mind.



    FX News Today

    USD continues to bounce (Day 5), and Yields up significantly as virus worries escalate and political uncertainty swirls. Democrats lodge papers to impeach President Trump if the cabinet doesn’t act to remove him. Neither of which are likely to come to fruition but the symbolism is significant. Equities lower (TSLA -7.82% & TWTR -6.4%), Asian markets mixed (Japan flat). Bitcoin crashed 20% before recovering 50% of loss, Oil recovered & Gold remains pressured by strong Yields. Overnight – weak Japanese bank lending and the worst UK Retail Sales figures since 1995, +4.8% vs 5.9% & 7.7% in Dec.

    USDIndex – 5th day higher from 33-mth low (89.15) and back over 90.00 but struggled over at 90.70 at 2-day high. Trades at 90.40 – PP 90.30 – S1 90.15, R1 90.65

    EUR – 4th day lower – trades under 1.2200 (R1) – 1.2130 (S1) yesterday, for a 18-day low, back to 1.2160 now– PP – 1.2180. 3 Black Crows on Daily Chart completed.



    JPY – 5th day higher but stalled ahead of 104.50 (R2) yesterday – Trades at 104.12 (PP), R1 104.30, S1 103.92

    GBP – down to 1.3450 (S1) yesterday. Back over 1.3500 and over R1 at 1.3555. PP 1.3510, R2 & 200Hr MA 1.3585

    AUD – Under 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7660 – back to PP now 0.7725 – R1 0.7750, NZD – Down to 0.7150 yesterday – back to PP 0.7180, R1 0.7210 CAD – 1.2835 high yesterday – trades at 1.2745 (PP & 200MA) – R1 1.2800 CHF – Trades at 0.8900 – up from 3 yr lows on Wednesday at 0.8757. PP 0.8850

    BTC – Major Volatility yesterday – plunged 20%+ to $29,800. Retraced over 50% of fall – Back to around $36,400.

    GOLD – Tested 1820 as Yields rose – Trades at 1858 now, PP 1840 USOil – $52.70 high Friday – trades at $51.60 (R1) now – still elevated, after dip to $51.50.

    USA500 – Closed down 25 (-0.66%) 3799 – USA500 FUTS now at 3805. 47 days north of 20SMA (3735).

    Today – US NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, BoE’s Broadbent, Fed’s Brainard, Kaplan, Mester, Rosengren, ECB’s de Cos

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (-0.40%) Bounced from 200MA on open. Breached PP (0.6384) earlier and tested R1 (0.6400). Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 57 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but remains south of 0 line this morning, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0050.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click [url=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html]HERE[/url] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html]HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

    [url=https://analysis.hotforex.com/]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

  4. #474
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    Date : 13th January 2021.

    FX Update – January 13 – USD & Yields stall their run, Politics swirls.



    FX News Today

    USD reversed its 5 day run as Yields stalled too. House vote tonight to impeach President Trump, (YouTube have banned him for 7 days), Pence will not initiate the 25th Amendment to remove him. The symbolism is significant, no President has ever been impeached twice. Equities flat too (UBER +7.24%,TSLA +4.72%, FB -2.24%, GooGL & NFLX -1.00%) Asian markets also flat. GBP rallied after Bailey pushed back on Negative Interest Rates. Oil rallied over 1% after surprise inventory drawdowns peaked at $53.90, AUD pegged by possible RBA “push back” to strong AUD. Gold recovered $1850.

    China reported its largest daily new COVID-19 cases in 5 months.

    USDIndex – Back under 90.00 from rejection of 90.50 yesterday. Trades at 89.95 just over S3 – PP 90.40 – S3 89.90, S2 90.07

    EUR – Recovered back over 1.2200 (R2) – Trades at 1.2215 now– PP – 1.2157. R3 1.2225 –



    JPY – Reverses under 104.000 – after rejection 104.50 on Monday. – Trades at 103.68 (200hr MA). – PP 103.90, S1 103.55

    GBP – Big rally – spurred by USD weakness and Governor Bailey pushing back on Negative Interest Rates. Breached 1.3600 after multiple attempts – rallied to 1.3690 – PP 1.3585, R1 1.3668, R2 1.3715

    AUD – Over 0.7700 yesterday to test 0.7770 (R2) now. R1 0.7748 – NZD – Over 0.7200 yesterday to test 0.7240 (R3) now. r2 0.7215 CAD – back to test 1.2700 (S2) today as Oil rises – S1 1.2725, S3 1.2664 from Friday CHF – Trades back to 0.8850 (200hrMA) and under S3 (0.8865)- PP 0.8900

    BTC – Back to around $34,600. – PP today 34,500, r1 36,600, s1 32,800

    GOLD – Recovers over 1850 (PP) – Trades at 1860 (R1) – R2 1875, PP 1840 USOil – New 11-mth high $53.90 (R2) after surprise drawdown in private inventories (EIA data later). R3 $54.70, r1 53.55.

    USA500 – Closed up 1.5 (+0.04%) 3800 – USA500 FUTS now at 3808. 48 days north of 20SMA (3740).

    Today – EZ industrial production, US CPI, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bullard, Brainard, Harker, Clarida

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.23%) 5th day higher – Bounced from 200MA on open, testing 1.7625 now, key resistance 1.7650. Fast MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and north of 0 line from Monday open, Stochastics rising to OB. H1 ATR 0.023, Daily ATR 0.0125.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click [url=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html]HERE[/url] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [url=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html]HERE[/url] to register for FREE!

    [url=https://analysis.hotforex.com/]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/url]

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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