Where will Dow go from here?

want to find out anyone has any views?

i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

want to find out anyone has any views?

 

i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

 

target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

Yes, I have the same analisys for DIA.

SP500 maybe in 1300 crash.

my statement is based on the simple fundamental view that globally, economies are weak. it is only a matter of time before the world wakes up to it and realise that stocks are currently overpriced.

in the usa, the american economy is still the world's largest debtor with debt at an all time high. no to mention that they are still struggling to get its act together after the last financial crisis.

in europe, the situation is far worse. we had a warning when the PIIGS issue came to light 3 years ago. until today it does not look like it is being resolved but instead the hole is being dug deeper and deeper as more and more european countries get downgraded.

in asia, china is thefacing a bubbling crisis where there is simply not enough drivers to keep the economy growing, even while inflation and prices there keep climbing skyhigh. it is a bubble waiting to burst.

in the BRIC economies, growth has slowed considerably and are not the emerging market darlings they once were.

in the middle-east there is further trouble brewing with palestine seeking recognition as a sovereign state and the usa tries to exert influence this time taking on iran.

with all this news, we just came out of a new year rally that has made everything look extremely rosy and fine. but the bad news is just waiting to trigger thats all.

there is a bull in the chinashop but everyone is just pretending not to see it. lets see how long they can ignore all this?

want to find out anyone has any views?

 

i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

 

target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

If this chart is correct, you are somewhat off. By 2000 pts. ;)

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YM/W?anticache=1331417947

I think it's safer to bet on shorter term moves.

at this stage i will put my hand up and say that the dow hasn't exactly gone the way i thought it would.

by some strange reason, the US seems to time and again be able to confound economists with its numbers and keep chugging along positively.

anyway for all those who are happily riding this bull wave, here's a nice little article for you:

http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/empire-and-jobless-data-confirm-us-economic-momentum-1626603331

i am still maintaining my bearish take. although im not sure how much furhter my pockets will empty...

Dow will drop from now till Mid-April or so!

A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.

Hi,

I base most if not all of my trades on cycles and timing. I do not trade with price at all.

Long term trading is for investors like you have huge fund to hold. But a retail trader like me who is trying to grab from the market for a little bit of this and that cannot afford to hold anything for 12 months or so. I can't do anything long term at all. Thanks for your suggestion, though!

A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.

A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.

I agree that the long side is safer long term. I remember Dow at 4000 and then 5000. It was 15 years ago or so, probably more. I am not sure we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months, but I very much doubt we will see 12,000 either.

I agree that the long side is safer long term. I remember Dow at 4000 and then 5000. It was 15 years ago or so, probably more. I am not sure we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months, but I very much doubt we will see 12,000 either.

Yes. I remember those days too. Dow hit 4K and then 5K the same year. If I recall it correctly it was in 1995. Very good year and a very good decade, made a lot of money back then being long MFs since late 93.

Hi,

 

I base most if not all of my trades on cycles and timing. I do not trade with price at all.

 

Long term trading is for investors like you have huge fund to hold. But a retail trader like me who is trying to grab from the market for a little bit of this and that cannot afford to hold anything for 12 months or so. I can't do anything long term at all. Thanks for your suggestion, though!

I daytrade quite often these days, but usually on more volatile days. I am doing pretty well. But I am also heavily invested in diamonds and recently exited AAPL some 500 pts above my entry point. I thought it would go higher after the recent earnings, but disappointed a bit, so I sold it. That was a very good investment. Did not expect it to go that high, but planned to hold it for at least 2-3 years as I often do with my better performing stocks. I might still buy some AAPL shares on a pullback. AAPL is also good for daytrading.

I daytrade quite often these days, but usually on more volatile days. I am doing pretty well. But I am also heavily invested in diamonds and recently exited AAPL some 500 pts above my entry point. I thought it would go higher after the recent earnings, but disappointed a bit, so I sold it. That was a very good investment. Did not expect it to go that high, but planned to hold it for at least 2-3 years as I often do with my better performing stocks. I might still buy some AAPL shares on a pullback. AAPL is also good for daytrading.

Are you daytrading AAPL? Scalping? I have thought about trying daytrading stocks. I started with 15K in my IB account, but I am now over 50K and could easily afford daytrading some stocks.

Can you tell me more about what you are doing? And those 500 points in AAPL are very impressive. I am kicking myself for not buying some shares below 100. Oh, well. Live and learn, learn amd live.

Thanks.

And now we are back in risk-off mode.

The bears have returned!

And now we are back in risk-off mode.

 

The bears have returned!

Well, I welcome our bearish friends. This only makes day trading more interesting and profitable. Better volatility and stuff.

Are you daytrading AAPL? Scalping? I have thought about trying daytrading stocks. I started with 15K in my IB account, but I am now over 50K and could easily afford daytrading some stocks.

 

Can you tell me more about what you are doing? And those 500 points in AAPL are very impressive. I am kicking myself for not buying some shares below 100. Oh, well. Live and learn, learn amd live.

 

Thanks.

Hi,

Sorry that I did not reply sooner, but I don't hang out on trading forums too often.

Yes, I day trade AAPL on more volatile days. I basically trade pullbacks. My strategy is not particularly sophisticated, but I would rather not reveal it here. AAPL is a good stock for day trading, but I am not sure if 50K is enough to make day trading it worthwhile. 100K is much better if you want to make some reasonable profit, but then again, you could give it a try.

I noticed that you were using King. A friend of mine got it a few months ago. He is quite pleased with it, but he was not that happy when he got it. Are you still using it? Scalping Dow emini?

Hi,

 

Sorry that I did not reply sooner, but I don't hang out on trading forums too often.

 

Yes, I day trade AAPL on more volatile days. I basically trade pullbacks. My strategy is not particularly sophisticated, but I would rather not reveal it here. AAPL is a good stock for day trading, but I am not sure if 50K is enough to make day trading it worthwhile. 100K is much better if you want to make some reasonable profit, but then again, you could give it a try.

 

I noticed that you were using King. A friend of mine got it a few months ago. He is quite pleased with it, but he was not that happy when he got it. Are you still using it? Scalping Dow emini?

Thanks for your reply.

I too don't come here very often, but I think that's still one of the better trading forums out there.

Yes, I am using king and doing well. I am trading only YM. I tried other emini markets (ES, TF) and you can trade them too, but I like to specialize and YM is very much to my liking and I get very good commissions too.

You may be right about 50K not being enough for day trading stocks for real profit. Actually, I have a similar problem with eminis. I would be making 200K a year, if I had access to at least 150K for that. Now that's real money.

joe-sixpack what strategy they use? i am using EW over years now i like to combi it with Market Profile for higher win rate.

regrads

Thanks for your reply.

 

I too don't come here very often, but I think that's still one of the better trading forums out there.

 

Yes, I am using king and doing well. I am trading only YM. I tried other emini markets (ES, TF) and you can trade them too, but I like to specialize and YM is very much to my liking and I get very good commissions too.

 

You may be right about 50K not being enough for day trading stocks for real profit. Actually, I have a similar problem with eminis. I would be making 200K a year, if I had access to at least 150K for that. Now that's real money.

Thanks for your reply.

 

I too don't come here very often, but I think that's still one of the better trading forums out there.

 

Yes, I am using king and doing well. I am trading only YM. I tried other emini markets (ES, TF) and you can trade them too, but I like to specialize and YM is very much to my liking and I get very good commissions too.

 

You may be right about 50K not being enough for day trading stocks for real profit. Actually, I have a similar problem with eminis. I would be making 200K a year, if I had access to at least 150K for that. Now that's real money.

Yes, it's not a bad forum, but gets slow at times.

So you are basically saying that I could be making an extra 200K a year? :>

Gee, I am in then. Seriously, I've been thinking about giving king a try ever since my friend started bragging about his newly found superpowers (LOL), but sounds like you might be doing even better.

Can I send you a PM? I would like to ask you a question or two if you don't mind.

I read the king's sales page the other day and must say that it's brilliant. If it was written by the vendor than I am even more impressed because English is not his mother tongue.

Yes, it's not a bad forum, but gets slow at times.

 

I read the king's sales page the other day and must say that it's brilliant. If it was written by the vendor than I am even more impressed because English is not his mother tongue.

I sent you a PM with my email address. Since neither of us is coming here often that seems the best way to communicate. Feel free to use it.

The King manual is also well written. I like to re-read parts of it every weekend. I find it helpful.

I sent you a PM with my email address. Since neither of us is coming here often that seems the best way to communicate. Feel free to use it.

 

Thanks. Got it. Will be in touch by email now. BTW, got myself King too. Cheers.

Thanks. Got it. Will be in touch by email now. BTW, got myself King too. Cheers.

No problem. I think you will enjoy it. Take care.