Where will Dow go from here?

[Kristianto]

want to find out anyone has any views?

i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

[statip]

What are you basing your analysis on? Most system traders try not to predict general market direction, but react based on some pattern formation / indicator / other principle. ALL in the context of excellent money management. Are you shorting the market now?

[jeremyarg]

want to find out anyone has any views?

i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

Yes, I have the same analisys for DIA.

SP500 maybe in 1300 crash.

[Kristianto]

my statement is based on the simple fundamental view that globally, economies are weak. it is only a matter of time before the world wakes up to it and realise that stocks are currently overpriced.

in the usa, the american economy is still the world's largest debtor with debt at an all time high. no to mention that they are still struggling to get its act together after the last financial crisis.

in europe, the situation is far worse. we had a warning when the PIIGS issue came to light 3 years ago. until today it does not look like it is being resolved but instead the hole is being dug deeper and deeper as more and more european countries get downgraded.

in asia, china is thefacing a bubbling crisis where there is simply not enough drivers to keep the economy growing, even while inflation and prices there keep climbing skyhigh. it is a bubble waiting to burst.

in the BRIC economies, growth has slowed considerably and are not the emerging market darlings they once were.

in the middle-east there is further trouble brewing with palestine seeking recognition as a sovereign state and the usa tries to exert influence this time taking on iran.

with all this news, we just came out of a new year rally that has made everything look extremely rosy and fine. but the bad news is just waiting to trigger thats all.

there is a bull in the chinashop but everyone is just pretending not to see it. lets see how long they can ignore all this?

[melindatrader]

Hi guys, nice thread, I personally believe that the markets will really get moving after elections... the Washington gridlock doesnt help any fundamental school at this point... Melinda

[melindatrader]

Do some of you agree also on the slow formation of a gold bubble as well ??

[sm_jew]

In the long term, 5 years or so, it will definitely go up. Meanwhile I just keep scalping it in the intraday direction (1-5 minute timeframe). Works just fine. YM is a good trading vehicle.

[sm_jew]

want to find out anyone has any views?

i think dow will be falling after new year. now is window dressing period.

target 11000 for dow by march 2012.

If this chart is correct, you are somewhat off. By 2000 pts.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/YM/W?anticache=1331417947

I think it's safer to bet on shorter term moves.

[Unclepips]

Dow will drop from now till Mid-April or so!

[Kristianto]

at this stage i will put my hand up and say that the dow hasn't exactly gone the way i thought it would.

by some strange reason, the US seems to time and again be able to confound economists with its numbers and keep chugging along positively.

anyway for all those who are happily riding this bull wave, here's a nice little article for you:
http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/empire-and-jobless-data-confirm-us-economic-momentum-1626603331

i am still maintaining my bearish take. although im not sure how much furhter my pockets will empty...