Friday, April 25, 2008

Indonesia shares may remain in a consolidation range, with main index likely returning to 2285-2310 levels.
In the U.S., stocks rose as a surge in the value of the dollar and a dip in oil shifted momentum from commodity stocks like Chevron to consumer-discretionary stocks like Delta Air Lines and financial such as Merrill Lynch.
The dollar had one of its biggest one-session spikes in recent years against the euro, helped by sentiment
that the gap between European and U.S. RATE CUTS would soon narrow. The rupiah has so far traded in safe levels, which could be good for businesses to set growth model for this year. Indonesian companies are expected to report a moderate to higher first quarter earnings and most of them will offer good dividends. Anyway, the main index may go up and down by 23 and 59 points. Main index 2238-2289 S2: 2227 R2: 2312

TLKM: 8,500-8,900. Its ADRs in NY dropped 0.5% to $38.26, or equal with IDR8,814 based on USD/IDR of
IDR9,215. Chart says it may be trading in a very limited range, but would have opportunity to mildly
rebound if it fails to break below IDR8,600

ISAT: 6,100-6,400. Its ADRs fell 2.7% to $33.10, or equal with IDR6,316. It looks the company would remain
reporting healthy first quarter earnings as tariffs adjustment would start to affects its second quarter one.

BUMI: 6,250-6,950. It is always interesting to watch how dynamic the daily trading is. The company's shares
movement has been most of the time driven by baseless rumors. Anyway, I believe that on chart reading, a
short-term pull back was accidentally designed for building volume. BUY at any level.

BNII: 420-510. First quarter net profit rose 72% on year to IDR198 billion due to an increase in net interest income and less cost of funds. At current price, the bank is, however, trading above the average of the industry. Sell on strength...

INCO: 6,300-6,900. It is now trading at a PBV of 5 times, compared with 3.75 times of Antam. The company
will hold an analyst meeting later in session to explain its first quarter earnings and 2008 business
outlook. BUY on weakness or at any level below IDR6k.

PGAS: 12,300-12,900. The company may announce strong first quarter earnings due to an increase in gas
sales. Overall, fundamentals remain strong but caution over possible fuel price hikes may cause prices to
trade within a very limited range.

ASII: 19,000-21,000. First quarter net profit may be at IDR1.65 trillion, up 29% on year from IDR1.28
trillion in the same period of last year. Higher sales and contribution of revenue from its CPO, heavy
equipment and mining units are a factor that supported the earings growth. BUY at any level.

SMRA: 490-630. It is now trading at a 42% discount to its NAV and below its fair value of IDR800 based on
DCF. Development projects remain stable despite alarming level of inflation and possible increase in interest rates showing company's solid stand on business. BUY on weakness

TBLA: 375-430
PTBA: 9,900-10,700
TINS: 31,200-35,200
BMRI: 2650-2900
BBRI: 5,850-6,400
UNSP: 1,600-1,720
MIRA: 1,280-1,450
UNTR: 11,600-12,700

The information herein is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but I do not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and
is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by addressees, who should obtain separate
legal or financial advice. I accept no liability for any direct, special, indirect, consequential,
incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information herein
(including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication
thereof, even if I have been advised of the possibility thereof. The information herein is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or to provide any investment advice or services. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by,
any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to
law or regulation.