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GBP/USD: technical comments On Tuesday GBP/USD consolidates at $1.5500 level after an intense drop on Friday and Monday. As can be seen from the daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. The pair trades close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a May decline and far below the 55-, 100- and 200-day MAs. On the H4 chart MAs met at $1.5584, creating a strong resistance. Support: $1.5486 (July 23 minimum); $1.5460 (July 6 minimum); $1.5400 (July minimums); $1.5392 (July 12 minimum); $1.5320 (June 5 minimum); $1.5267 (June 1 minimum); $1.5233 (2012 minimum). Resistance: $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart); $1.5596 (50-day MA); $1.5626 (July 23 maximum); $1.5661 (38.2% Fib. retracement); $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5747 (200-day MA), $1.5777/88 (June 20 maximum, 50% Fib. retracement and a 100-day MA). In our view, a close below $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) could trigger a drop to $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums). If the pair manages to overcome a strong resistance at $1.5584 (MAs on the H4 chart), an increase to $1.5746/88 resistance area will become possible. Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

Standard Chartered: risk of short squeeze Analysts at Standard Chartered claim that the outlook for the single currency remains bearish. As the same time, while euro will continue gradually depreciating versus the greenback, its slide in the recent weeks versus Australian dollar, Japanese yen and Canadian dollar has been much bigger, so there’s a risk of near-term short squeeze if case of positive surprises on the economic or sovereign debt fronts in the coming days. As a result, investors with shorter time horizons should look to position for, or hedge against, the risk that the EUR could see a short but sharp clearing-out of short positions, while maintaining the general negative view on the currency. Chart. Daily EUR/JPY

EUR/USD: technical & fundamental update Fundamental news: Spain sold 1.63 billion euro of 3-month bills and 1.42 billion euro of 6-month bills – that’s just over 3-billion target. The yields were slightly higher. Euro zone flash PMIs for July were softer than expected. The region’s manufacturing PMI fell to the lowest level since June 2009. Support: $1.2065 (yesterday’s minimum), $1.2045 (June 11, 2010, minimum), $1.2028 (April 3, 2006, minimum), $1.2008 (June 8, 2010, maximum), $1.1972/91 (trend line support connecting the November 2005 minimum at $1.1635 and June 2010 minimum at $1.1876) and $1.1876 (June 7, 2010, minimum). Resistance: $1.2144 (Friday’s minimum), $1.2162 (July 13 minimum), $1.2175 (July 16 minimum), $1.2250 (down channel), $1.2325 (last week’s maximum). Commerzbank: EUR/USD will slide to $1.2053 (200-month moving average) and consolidate there for some time before sliding to $1.1934 (downside measured target from the symmetrical triangle). Chart. H1 EUR/USD

AUD/USD: technical comments On Tuesday AUD/USD strengthens after a two-day decline, following the last week’s advance. As can be seen from the daily chart, today the pair trades close to the lower boundary of an upward channel existing since June. The bulls are struggling to fix above an important 200-day MA. On the H4 chart the pair trades close to a 50-period MA, while 100- and 200-period MAs are heading up. Resistance: $1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); $1.0400 (psychological); $1.0443 (July 19 minimum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0469 (April maximum); $1.0500 (psychological); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum). Support: $1.0279 (200-day MA); $1.0280 (July 18 minimum); $1.0240 (July 10 maximum); $1.0201 (100-day MA); $1.0099 (July 12 minimum); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum). In our view, if the pair manages to break the support area at $1.0280/55, a further fall to $1.0099 (July 12 minimum) will become possible. However, the upward trend looks resilient: further advance of the Aussie will lead AUD/USD to $1.0673 (April 27 maximum) Commerzbank analysts see resistance at $1.0485 from the top of a short term channel and after recent failure ahead of the $1.0475 April maximum. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

July 24: economy and currencies EUR/USD consolidated below Friday’s minimum at $1.2144. Yesterday the pair renewed 2-year minimum at $1.2065 on concerns about Greece and Spain. Moody’s Investors Service changed credit outlook for Germany and the Netherlands to negative. There’s a bunch of PMIs released in Europe today. At the same time, the market’s attention will likely remain focused on Spain which will offer 3- and 6-month bills. Yesterday Spanish 10-year yields rose to the records of 7.5%. The Netherlands will sell today debt maturing in 2014 and 2028. Troika officials arrive in Athens today amid doubts that Greece will meet commitments required for bailout funding. EUR/JPY remains close to 11-year minimum at 94.23 hit on Monday. Aussie, kiwi and loonie gain on Tuesday after a two-day drop. Risk sentiment improved after HSBC flash manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in July from 48.2, bolstering the export prospects for the South Pacific nations. However, the demand on the high-yielding currencies is still limited ahead of the Spanish auction and euro area PMIs. In a speech today the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens sought to ease concern his nation is vulnerable to shocks from China, a domestic housing slump and global financial stress, saying it remains a “lucky country” with a favorable outlook. Demand for Aussie and kiwi is supported against the yen amid speculation the BoJ will act to weaken the nation’s currency. Finance Minister Azumi said the yen’s gain is one- sided and doesn’t reflect economic fundamentals. USD/JPY declines for a fifth consecutive day. British pound also strengthens on Tuesday, driven by the market sentiment. Events to watch: Euro area: PMIs. A gauge for manufacturing in the currency bloc is estimated to be at 45.3 in July. That’s below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction and compares with a reading of 45.1 last month. Canada: Retail sales. Data release may cheer the investors up a little bit: according to forecasts, core retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in May vs. a decline by 0.3% in April, while retail sales - to grow by 0.3% vs. a previous 0.5% drop. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

GBP/USD: technical comments On Monday GBP/USD extends decline for a second consecutive day as the risk aversion helped the greenback to strengthen vs. its major counterparts. The cable dropped by 100 pips, but found support at $1.5484 and bounced back above the $1.5500 area. The pair trades close to 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from a May decline. GBP/USD has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. Support: $1.5500 (psychological); $1.5486 (today’s minimum); $1.5460 (July 6 minimum); $1.5400 (July minimums); $1.5260 (2012 minimum) Resistance: $1.5580 (July 11 maximum); $1.5617/26 (50-day MA and today’s maximum); 1.5662 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement); $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5750 (200-day MA), $1.5777 (June 20 maximum) Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

EUR/USD: technical comments EUR/USD has formed a gap between Friday’s close of $1.2157 and today’s opening at $1.2105. Euro renewed 2-year minimum at $1.2065 and is now stating below $1.2131 (50% of the trading range since the currency’s introduction). Support: $1.2072/85, $1.2045 (June 11, 2010, minimum), $1.2008 (June 8, 2010, maximum), $1.1972-1.1991 (trend line support connecting the November 2005 minimum at $1.1635 and June 2010 minimum at $1.1876) and $1.1876 (June 7, 2010, minimum). Resistance: $1.2144 (Friday’s minimum) and $1.2162 (July 13 minimum). These levels are to hold upward correction. Outlook: negative. Rabobank: EUR/USD us targeting $1.1876 – “1.20 is a big psychological level with option barriers a plenty and we would be surprised not to see a test of this.” BBH: “Convincing downside break of the $1.2080 level would target $1.1880 initially.” Chart. Daiy EUR/USD

BNY Mellon: Spain will ask for full bailout Analysts at Bank of New York Mellon claim that Spain may apply for bailout following Ireland, Portugal and Greece. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy confronts 15 billion euro of debt redemptions in Spain’s regions in the second half of this year. Valencia was the first region to tap a fund designed to help out Spain’s 17 semi-autonomous regions. Now Murcia is seeking aid as well. Financial situation in Catalonia, Castilla-La-Mancha, the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands also is very difficult. Spanish 10-year yields rose to the record levels of 7.5%. The nation’s IBEX 35 is down 35% from its level a year ago. It’s clear that the bank bailout for Spain isn’t anough to deal with the country’s problems. BNY Mellon: although Spain could live to see October, other members of the euro area afraid of contagion will push the nation to request bailout. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti claimed that unrest in Spain dramatically increases concerns and makes Italian yields rise as well. Italian 10-year yields are above 6%. Spain’s Economy Minister Luis de Guindos will talk with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble. No press conference is planned Westpac: “Spain has lost access to markets but claims it won’t impact published debt raising plans. Investors don’t like it; they are losing faith in Spain’s ability to finance herself and can no longer trust what the political leaders across Europe.” http://business.rawsignal.com

Ichimoku. USD / JPY. Week of July 23-27 Weekly USD/JPY The greenback has posted 4 weeks of declines versus Japanese yen. This is another week which US currency has started on the downside. USD/JPY has been staying within the weekly Ichimoku Cloud since the end of April. At the moment the prices are close to the lower border of Kumo which should provide them good support. In addition, there’s late May minimum in this area (77.65). Also note that the Baseline (1) and the Conversion line (2) are horizontal which points at the possibility of the rate’s consolidation. In addition, the thin Cloud which has so far changed its direction several times shows that neither bulls, nor bears dominate the market. At the same time, it’s necessary to note that this week will be marked with strong influence of the fundamental factors. In particular, US advance GDP is released on Friday – all eyes will be on this publication. It seems that investors are already tired of discussing the odds of QE3 and they are craving for the confirmation of their pessimism. Negative data could make US dollar breach support provided by the Cloud. Chart. Weekly USD/JPY Daily USD/JPY USD/JPY has already tested the levels below 78 yen today – this level is regarded by many as the level of potential BOJ intervention. On the daily chart the prices have gone through the lower part of the Cloud, but didn’t manage to overcome resistance provided by Kumo and rise to its upper border. The lines Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) are directed downwards pointing at the downtrend. The bullish Cloud has shrunk to one point getting ready to change its direction. The pair’s prospects seem negative. Chart. Daily USD/JPY

RBA's easing cycle's coming to an end Analysts at Deloitte expect the RBA to cut the benchmark interest rate once more in this cycle if China can maintain its growth outlook. They point that the second largest economy in the world has recently taken measures to support the economy, but will the effect be long-lasting? Specialists say China’s efforts could soften the blow on global economy, but bad news from either Europe or China could spoil the outlook for the Australia’s economy. According to analysts at NAB, the RBA is coming to the end of the interest rate easing cycle. Currency market is still expecting a 100 b.p. cut by mid 2013, but specialists believe a new rate cut could happen only in case of a euro zone melt-down. In their view, Australian dollar is to depreciate and inflation is likely to rise in a quarter or two. On a fundamental basis, the Aussie seems to be overvalued. Photo: Bloomberg Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

Draghi’s interview: EUR is not at risk Here are the key points from ECB President Mario Draghi’s interview released over the weekend: • “We are very open and have no taboos. We decided to lower interest rates below 1% because we expected that inflation would be close to or below 2% at the start of 2013. Now it is probable that it will come down by the end of 2012.” • Draghi didn’t say that declining inflation would allow further rate cuts, but said that the ECB will act if it sees the risk of deflation. • Draghi ruled out risk of recession in the euro area. The ECB is looking forward to gradual improvement late in 2012 or early in 2013. • The survival of monetary union is not at risk, “euro is irreversible”. • On Greece: the ECB would prefer the nation to stay, but it’s for the Greek government to decide. • Draghi urged euro zone leaders for structural reforms, more action at the European level and move towards financial, budgetary and political union. Photo: AFP Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

CFTC trader positioning data The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, July 20 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 17: The US dollar long positions increased to $25.8 billion on July 17 from a total long position of $24.58 billion on July 10, while the net short euro positions rose to 167.2K contracts from the previous week’s total of 166K net short contracts. Investors increased bets the Japanese currency will strengthen: the net long yen positions edged higher to 11.1K contracts following a total of 8.9K net long contracts the previous week. The British pound is still unpopular among the speculators: the net short pound positions declined by 1.3% this week. The net short Swiss franc positions increased to 23K contracts following 17.5K net short contracts the previous week. Investors continued to bet that the Australian and New Zealand dollars will rise, with net long positions totaling $1.4 billion and $554 million, respectively. But the market changed its view on the Canadian dollar, now expecting the currency to fall, with a net $119 million wagered. It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

AUD/USD: technical comments It seems that the last week’s advance came to an end: AUD/USD declines on Monday for a second consecutive day, trading close to the $1.0300 level amid concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening, reducing demand for higher-yielding assets. The Aussie opened the week with a gap down, but still remains in an upward channel and above a 200-day MA. The pair was supported early Monday by a higher-than-expected PPI release, which came out at 0.5% vs. 0.3% expected (q/q) and 1.1% vs. 1.0% expected (y/y). Resistance: $1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); $1.0400 (psychological); $1.0443 (July 19 minimum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0469 (April maximum); $1.0500 (psychological); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum) Support: $1.0279 (200-day MA); $1.0280 (July 18 minimum); $1.0240 (July 10 maximum); $1.0201 (100-day MA); $1.0099 (July 12 minimum). Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

July 23: economic & forex news The markets are in the risk-off mode amid the concerns that the European debt crisis is escalating. Asian shares are down. The greenback and Japanese yen have strengthened vs. the majority of their counterparts as the possibility of Greece’s leaving the euro area is getting higher and higher. EUR/USD opened the week with almost 40-pip gap down touching fresh 2-year minimum at $1.2106. EUR/JPY hit 11-month minimum at 94.60 yen. The sole data release today in Europe is the euro zone’s consumer confidence published at 14:00 GMT. According to the forecasts, the index will remain close to 3-month low. As for the debt auctions, Germany will offer short-term debt 06:00 GMT and France – at 10:50 GMT. Investors are more worried about tomorrow as Spain will auction 3- and 6-month bills. Spanish 10-year yields stay at the record maximums, above the critical level of 7%. Note that demand for US dollar as everyone awaits US Q2 GDP figures on Friday. Economists expect American economy to add only 1.5% (q/q), showing the slowest growth pace since June 2011. Weak data will increase the odds of QE3, dollar-negative factor. Taking into account such prospects, yen may by the best performer in the coming months. Elsewhere, Australian PPI rose by 0.5% in Q2 (vs. +0.3% expected). Japanese monetary authorities do their usual comments about their readiness to act with easing, but nothing more. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask them in comments to this article!

Der Spiegel: Greece may fail in September Der Spiegel reports citing unnamed senior EU sources in Brussels that the IMF wants to stop providing financial aid to Greece as soon as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) starts functioning in September. According to Der Spiegel, Greece could become bankrupt as early as in autumn. It’s clear that Greek government won’t be able to bring down its debt load to about 120% of GDP by 2020. The Troika estimates show that that giving Greece more time to achieve its goals would cost additional 10-50 billion euro. However, many European economies are reluctant to pay for their troubled neighbor. In addition, countries like the Netherlands and Finland were providing as the IMF was involved. The Troika officials will soon go to Athens to see whether Greece is doing enough to comply with the terms of its second international bailout and merit receiving the next tranche of funds. Last week Greek politicians were unable to reach agreement pushed back talks on cutting budget by almost 12 billion euros ($14.6 billion). The ECB adds pressure: on Friday the central bank said that it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral in return for funding, at least until the positive report of the Troika. On Saturday German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle ruled out the possibility of relaxing the conditions of Athens’ second bailout. It seems that the EU and the IMF are finally ready to pull the plug on Greece. Euro zone’s nations think that the currency union would survive Greece’s exit. The ESM is meant to stop contagion in this case. German constitutional court delivers its verdict on the mechanism on September 12. Grece. The impending doom. Photo from minority-opinion.com

Events to watch on July 23-27 Are you prepared for the next week’s trade? Monday, July 23 Australia: PPI is likely to increase by 0.3% q/q in Q2 after a 0.3% drop in Q1 - still this a very small gain. The release is especially important ahead of the CPI release on Wednesday. Euro area: Consumer confidence. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict that an index of household sentiment in the euro region was probably unchanged this month from June at minus 19.8, remaining close to 3-year minimum. Tuesday, July 24 China: HSBC flash manufacturing PMI. In June the index came at 48.2, its lowest reading in 7 months. Euro area: PMIs. A gauge for manufacturing in the currency bloc is estimated to be at 45.3 in July. That’s below the 50 level that separates expansion from contraction and compares with a reading of 45.1 last month. Canada: Retail sales. Data release may cheer the investors up a little bit: according to forecasts, core retail sales increased by 0.2% m/m in May vs. a decline by 0.3% in April, while retail sales - to grow by 0.3% vs. a previous 0.5% drop. Wednesday, July 25 Australia: Consumer prices probably grew 1.3% in Q2 y/y, what would match the slowest annual pace since June 1999. Germany: Ifo Business Climate might paint a brighter picture of current business conditions, but it is likely to show that companies are losing confidence in the future. UK: - Preliminary GDP (Q2). The figures are expected to confirm the fears that the UK is still in recession: British economy may have fallen by 0.2% (q/q). This would be the third successive quarterly fall, and would mean that GDP is lower now than it was in the third quarter of 2010, and 3.9% below its pre-recession peak. - CBI Industrial Order Expectations. The index improved in June coming better than expected. If this data are confirmed, hopes will rise that the UK will recover in Q3. US: New home sales will likely continue to improve, though from a very low base. New Zealand: The RBNZ meeting. Currency markets will be waiting for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision. According to Credit Suisse data, traders appear to be anticipating a 95% chance of no change to the current benchmark lending rate. Annual inflation is holding at the lower end of the RBNZ's annual target band of 1-3%, increasing the chances that the bank will keep the cash rate at a record low 2.50 % level until summer 2013. The rate was last lowered in March 2011. Thursday, July 26 Euro area: Private loans. The ECB data may show that bank lending to the private sector is stagnating. The European crisis is reducing banks’ ability to lend and companies’ willingness to borrow. US: Durable goods orders may have increased 0.4 percent in June, less than the 1.3 percent gain in May. Pending Home Sales. Friday, July 27 US: Advance GDP (Q2). Though US economy is doing better that the euro zone’ or the UK ones, economists expect it to add only 1.5% (q/q), showing the slowest growth pace since June 2011. In Q1 American economy increased by 1.9%. Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

EUR: rising concerns about Spain Euro dropped versus its peers on the rumors that Valencia, Spain’s region, will ask for central government help to refinance its debt. Spanish 10-year yields climbed above 7%. The markets are extremely concerned about the situation in Spain, even though the euro zone’s finance ministers are expected to approve the bailout for the nation’s banks. Illustration by Topos Graphics EUR/USD tested the levels below $1.2200 and got some support around $1.2185. EUR/JPY hit 7-week minimum. EUR/GBP fell to the minimal level since October 2008. Chart. H1 EUR/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

RBC: trading GBP/AUD Analysts at RBC claim that the pair GBP/AUD may decline to 4-month minimum if it closes below 1.5070 (early July minimum). The downside target lies at 1.4905 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement of its advance from February minimum to May maximum). Chart. Daily GBP/AUD

GBP/USD: technical & fundamental On Friday GBP/USD dropped below the $1.5670 area as the yield on Span’s 10-year bonds reached their highest level since the June 18 (7.158%). Moreover, public sector net borrowing in UK reached £12.08 billion in June, exceeding expectations at £11.0 billion, although lower than the previous £15.58 billion. The pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. Analysts at RBS claim that GBP/USD may be rangebound in the medium term. The specialists propose small shorts with a stop at $1.5800. Support: $1.5660 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of a May decline), $1.5600 (psychological), $1.5400 (July minimums) Resistance: $1.5736 (July 19 maximum), $1.5750 (200-day MA), $1.5777 (June 20 maximum), $1.5800 (psychological) Chart. Daily GBP/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

Nomura, RBC: JPY tends to strengthen in August Analysts at Nomura point out that Japanese yen tends to strengthen against major currencies in August. It usually happens for a number of reasons: Japanese investors get repayments for their US Treasury holdings and transfer this money to their national currency (August has the second highest concentration of coupon payments after February); Japanese corporations repatriate half year profits. Analysts at RBC add that this phenomenon may be explained by Japan’s huge stock of overseas assets. Moreover, the effects of repatriation in August are more visible as forex turnover that month is the second lowest of the year after December, data from CLS Bank show. As a result, the specialists are bearish on USD/JPY. Note that there are about 90 pips between the current price level and June minimums and about 250 pips to 2012 minimum. Will the Bank of Japan have enough power and willingness to overcome the seasonal yen’s appreciation? Charts. Yen's appreciation in Ausust 2010 and 2011

NZD/USD: short-term outlook NZD/USD has initially declined on Friday after a three-day growth as the risk sentiment worsened today ahead of the Eurogroup meeting. However, the pair has slightly pared its losses after the Finnish parliament has backed the rescue for Spanish banks in a vote held in the morning. NZD/USD trades above the 100- and 200-day MAs. On Thursday NZD/USD overcame a strong resistance at $0.8000 (now support) and now consolidates in a $0.8000/53 range. From a technical point of view, therefore, it seems the pair is set to continue a bullish movement to $0.8075 after a short-term correction. However, further dynamics of the pair will highly depend on the news coming from the euro area and from the Fed’s and China’s monetary easing steps. Resistance: $0.8053 (July 19 maximum); $0.8075 (July 5 maximum); $0.8231/33 (April 27 and 30 maximums) Support: $0.8000 (psychological); $0.7991 (July 19 minimum); $0.7970/60 (100- and 200-day MAs); $0.7862 (July 13 minimum) Chart. Daily NZD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

EUR/USD: negative bias persists The single currency is declining versus the greenback. Euro got hurt due to weak demand at a Spanish bond auction on Thursday which pushed 10-year yields back above the critical 7% level. Eurogroup is expected to approve Spanish banking bailout later today. However, the news may do nothing to improve the outlook for euro: the markets fear that even if Spanish banks get help, the nation won’t be able to keep financing itself on its own. In addition, as the ECB has so far cut the deposit rate, investors will likely leave the euro area searching for higher yields. Euro is now being viewed as a funding currency. While other currencies may gain versus the greenback on the talk of potential QE3 in the US, EUR will likely remain under pressure of the region’s debt crisis. BNY Mellon: EUR/USD will test $1.2150 next week. Commerzbank: A break below last week’s minimum of $1.2162 will bring EUR/USD down to $1.1934 (the symmetrical triangle downside target) and $1.2053 (200-month MA) and $1.1876 (2010 minimum). Support: $1.2246 (today’s lows), $1.2230 (yesterday’s minimums), $1.2190 (Tuesday’s minimum), $1.2163 (July 13 low). Resistance: $1.2285 (today’s maximum), $1.2317/24(Tuesday’s/yesterday’s maximum), $1.2335 (July 10 maximum). Chart. H1 EUR/USD

AUD/USD: technical and fundamental AUD/USD declines on Friday, trading close to the $1.0400 level as the risk appetite shrinks ahead of the Euro group meeting. The Aussie hasn’t managed to overcome a strong resistance at $1.0469 (April maximum) yet despite a five-day bullish movement, but still remains close to an 11-week high and above a 200-day MA. Analysts at Westpac forecast the Aussie to be pushed up by the hopes of further global central bank action. All in all, this week was positive for AUD/USD: on Monday the pair traded at $1.0200. Markets expect the Australian CPI release on July 25 to show the slowest annual growth pace since June 1999. According to Bloomberg survey, Australian inflation probably grew by 1.3% in Q2 y/y. However, today some positive data were released: the Australian import prices unexpectedly increased by 2.4% in Q2. Resistance: 1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); 1.0469 (April maximum); 1.0500 (psychological); 1.0557 (March 27 maximum) Support: 1.0400 (psychological); 1.0320/28 (July 4-5 maximums); 1.0279 (200-day MA) Chart. Daily AUD/USD Have a profitable trade with FBS! If you have any questions to our analysts, you're welcome to ask or comments for this article!

Eurogroup will discuss Spain at 10:00 GMT Eurogroup’s conference starts today at 10:00 GMT. Euro zone finance ministers are expected to approve an agreement to lend up to 100 billion euro to Spain for the recapitalization of the nation’s banks. The region’s finance chiefs are to sign memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Spain stating the terms of the aid. The exact size of the loan will probably be determined later this year: firstly, Spanish banks have to pass stress tests (results are due in September), so that it will become clear how much money they really need. Restructuring plans are to be drawn up in October, as set out in the timeline annexed to the MoU, says euro zone official cited by Reuters. Spain expects 30 billion euro in a first tranche of bailout that will be available immediately for state-rescued banks that urgently need funds. The first injection of capital into banks not already rescued by the state and unable to raise capital by themselves can be expected by October, after reviews by the Spanish government and the European Commission.

Key options expiring today Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT). Here are the key options expiring today: EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2225, $1.2250, $1.2260, $1.2300 (large), $1.2325, $1.2375, $1.2385; USD/JPY: 78.70, 79.30; AUD/USD: $1.0250, $1.0295, $1.0300, $1.0347; GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5650; AUD/JPY: 82.00.