musketeer

http://www.cashbackforex.com/articles/view/tabid/364/ID/337/Default.aspx

http://i56.tinypic.com/2dqn3oy.jpg
 
late entry, should be on the open of the bar, ATR and ATR*2 for SL and TP
 
 
last swing low would be SL of 48 pips in that case, too much risk for 15m chart... now the ATR was enough, but ....

GUYS, I google street mapped this so called 'Millionaire' guys address (795 Rochdale Road, Manchester, Greater Manchester M95XD) It's a Internet Cafe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SCAM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=795+Rochdale+Road,+Manchester,+Greater+Manchester+M95XD&hl=en&ll=53.509465,-2.216425&spn=0.000001,0.0012&sll=53.800651,-4.064941&sspn=14.066575,39.331055&vpsrc=6&t=h&z=20&layer=c&cbll=53.509465,-2.216425&panoid=LMj1btOrpQGfdcJx8w1dKg&cbp=12,254.73,,1,4.15http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/394/scammersaddress.th.jpg' alt='scammersaddress.th.jpg'>

lol you can imagine the conversations of the marketeers before all these "copy live trade services" took off :)
 
Marketeer1: "This is getting really bad, there are guys who can decompile any of our EA's and see that they don't contain genetic algorithms etc. but just a couple of basic indicators - they can even somehow work out how to crack DLLs - is nothing safe anymore?..."
 
Marketeer2: "We need to keep the code or the EAs themselves on our own servers, so that nobody can meddle with them and prove that they're actually rubbish in backtesting and realise that our backtests were fakes".
 
"Marketeer1: "I've had a thought, as the punters don't actually see the EA, they don't know that it exists...so we could pretend it's actually a live (hugely experienced) trader who's making the trades".
 
"Marketeer2: "Wow...we could even charge them monthly given the kudos of expert manual traders and make a fortune from this".
 
"Marketeer1: "Let's crack the champers and order those Ferrari's right now..."
 
and so it goes on ;)

i really do not like not-search-able pdfs... so, here is the ocr version of
 

http://www.mediafire.com/?ids649eaojelpcm

Hi conglo,
 
I was being a bit "cavalier" in my approach to deleting objects :)
 
This version should contain a fix for your problem - try it and see:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/TG28ABQNV5
 
This version also includes options for alerts...
 
Either set AlertArrow or AlertArrowProb to true to activate the alert.
 
AlertArrow will alert as soon as a new arrow is drawn regardless of probability.
AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 after an arrow is drawn.
 
As a general trading note, because this system is essentially momentum driven, then I'd expect signals to be best in the main UK and UK/US sessions.

well, good friends are always of help
 

http://www.multiupload.com/4OA7CZDUZM

Thank You musketeer

in english (by google) is:
"A video (camtasia will explain to you) so no need to argue anymore .. and always use a technique Money management system (it is an absolute thing) ... Finish and do not have the debate again .. for those who do not like please look for other alternatives and the like can probably get it. We will not actually discuss this issue much longer .. therefore, if the film / video already exists, you are welcome to listen to his own .. and judge for yourself."

congrats! :)

Update
 
This data is based upon COT reports of 8/16/2011 published by the US Government at 3:30pm ET on 8/19/2011. This email was sent at 3:56pm 8/19/2011.
 
[email protected]/Y3T1STYN3D
 
Good trading wishes

Here is the same system from sendspace but with instructions kindly provided by Ismael...
 
Rgds
RM

in english (by google) is:
"A video (camtasia will explain to you) so no need to argue anymore .. and always use a technique Money management system (it is an absolute thing) ... Finish and do not have the debate again .. for those who do not like please look for other alternatives and the like can probably get it. We will not actually discuss this issue much longer .. therefore, if the film / video already exists, you are welcome to listen to his own .. and judge for yourself."

rick - that was a totally hypothetical example, I was just trying to illustrate a point! lol
 
It all depends in which chart you're trading the system from and your risk/reward and obviously any additional skills that you can throw into the mix as to whether you trade any setup or not.
 
Try trading this system next week and report back how you get on ;)
 
Just to mention for everyone forward testing...
 
The "killer" aspect of this system is the probability number.
 
The MACD crossover arrows are just a "heads up" that a turn in price may be imminent.
 
Think about all the traders trading on all the different timeframes, some using MACD, some using Stochs, some using MA's etc. These are all going to act as triggers of some sort and cause a shift in price. The probability number (with its additional weighting for the timeframe you're trading on) captures the essence of all this activity and gives you a clear point at which to enter a trade.
 
As rick has mentioned, looking at previous S/R, Highs/Lows etc., perhaps we can look into building these into the probability numbers too to give an even more powerful indicator :)
 
Also...I've been mainly looking at 5m charts for signals and I believe most others have done the same too. This goes against the originator's recommendation that the system is traded on 1H or above. It would be interesting to see some forward test results from 1H and 4H.

Guys, I've just been thinking about next steps...
 
Obviously we need to forward test the system as it stands and all results on that will be welcome - if you're going to publish results then please make it clear if you're using other trading methods in addition to the pivot signals (arrows) and the probability being >20 or <-20.
 
Possible enhancements to the main indicator will be alerts - which can made flexible:
 
Conservative Alert - will alert as soon as a new arrow is drawn. This leaves you time to evaluate the market conditions and the probability, or possibly wait for what looks like a retrace coming up before entering etc.
 
Aggressive Alert - will alert as soon as a new buy arrow is drawn and probability is > 20 or as soon as a new sell arrow is drawn and probability is < -20. The idea being that you hear this alert and aim to enter the trade immediately.
 
If the histogram can't be used for backtesting then it may still be useful so that we can can see the general "flow" of probability throughout the day. To do this we'd need to change the indicator so that it plotted histograms only for current prices as long as MT4 is running. We can store these in an array and display them. Each time MT4 is restarted the indicator would be cleared. The idea behind this is that if you get a signal for a Buy trade and you check probability and see it's 23, in some cases it may be handy to know where probability has been before then, for example the previous values could have been 50, 43, 32, 28, 23, so would you now be as tempted to go long? lol.
 
All I'm suggesting at the moment are peripheral tweaks to the indicators to help us in our trading decisions. Until we have some proper results from forward testing we're not going know whether we need to look at enhancements to the core logic or not. As I mentioned earlier, some of the MA flags often didn't make a lot of sense to me, so if at times we find that the probability is unreliable then these are probably the first things to home in on to look at improving.
 
I'm sure that depending on the skills of the trader forward testing we'll get quite different results. I suspect that blindly following the entries will only give a mediocre performance and this is why at the moment, I can't see any value in looking at creating an EA from this system (the same applies to 99.99999% of systems lol). EA's have their place and they can be useful for backtesting ideas or for automatically placing stops and targets.
 
Here's an obvious example of why there will be differences...
 
Price on EURUSD has risen to 1.4500 and dropped and then touched just under the same level with a lower high formed just under 1.4500. Currently price is at 1.4489 and we have a signal to go long where our stop would be at 1.4456 (a handful of pips below the bottom of the last big red box), probability is 21...do we take the trade?
 
Someone blindly following the system signals would take the trade, however because of resistance being tested at 1.4500 and that our target needs to be at least at 1.4522 (to give a 1:1 risk:reward), or preferably better, then a more experienced trader is likely to hold off from entering a trade.
 
It will be interesting to see what results you guys come up with at the end of next week...
 
If wanrayman gets 300% return again - I think we need to take a very close look at how he's trading the system ;)

Look at this page:
 
 

http://www.autofxmillionaire.com/affiliates.html
 
 
 
 
Here is their conclusion:
 

 
 
 
It makes you think, right?
 
Here type your own conclusion:

 
 
 
here is mine:
That's how he will probably try to make his "million". :(( surely not in trading ;))

Here:
 
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=4HGMXCY7
 
M1, M5/M15 educated versions with manual.

Hi Guys,
 
I've amended the Histogram to include iBarShift() though it's still not working - perhaps this is a non-starter because of the MTF issues, I'm not sure, it's here for anyone who wants to dabble with it:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/NMUOMTVBL1
 
I've amended the II version of the indicator to include the correct MA calculations and the timeframe weightings. I've also changed the flags to coloured boxes which are easier to see (if you want to use them). If you don't want to see the flags you can now turn them off in the parameters. You also have the option to move the text and flags wherever you want on the screen by changing the HPos and VPos parameter settings (for Horizontal Position and Vertical Position). I've removed the account details as that's pretty much useless and just clogs up the screen:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/P9VO5BSVS7
 
Here's an example:
 
http://i53.tinypic.com/e02vdf.jpg

........................

***TRADE LIKE A BOSS*** setup
 
%5Bimg%5Dhttp%3A//i1096.photobucket.com/albums/g336/ismael360/SellEntrys.jpg[/img]
 

 
Here you go Indo. The Trade Like A Boss setup.
 
Most of you who has used Xard's setup's before know that they are built for the MT4 system.
Those of you who have not used one of Xard's setups before, just to let you know, the TRADE LIKE A BOSS setup is to be used with Metatrader 4.
 
The TRADE LIKE A BOSS setup is to be used to trade Forex, GOLD, & Silver.
 
 
BOSS MODE is a trend catching setup, meaning it was designed and built to get you in and out of the trend.
The reason for this is becuase most pips are made while catching the trend.
 
OK...Here goes..
 
 
Inside the Oscillator window you will see the Range indicator.
 
 
This is real easy to read...
 
 
White line above top black line.... price going up
White line below bot black line.... price going down
 
 
Now, this indy will show the start of a new move when the white line crosses the black line especially if the Oscillator has just changed as well.
 
 
The drawback to using this indy is even though it is great at showing us when to get in on the start of a new move, it is much harder to see continuation moves with this indy.
 
 
Not to worry. The histo indy that is in the window above the Oscillator is a filter indy :-)
This will work hand hand with the range indy to show us continuations in the current trend as well as an exit strategy if you are not already out of the move, if the filter goes against you then it is time to exit.
 
 
Also the filter indy will help you decide if its a good time to get in.
As a rule of thumb... do not trade against the filter indy... it is there for your protection.
 
 
The higher gann ssl which will show you 4hr on 1hr & 30m chart and daily on 4hr chart.
This way you can see the immediate higher timeframe as it is critical to your decision making process.
Trading with the higher time frames is preferred.
 
The smaller Gann ssl is part of your trigger. You want to be in a red smaller gann ssl to look to sell, and in a green smaller gann ssl to look for a buy.
You want to be in a red small gann ssl with in a yello big gann ssl to sell, and in a green ssl with in a purple big gann ssl to buy.
 
 
The DSR in the main chart that looks like a squared cross hair or hash mark, think of it as a zero line, you want to be above it when going long and you want to be below it when going short.
It is there as a confidence booster. Just watch it for a few days and you will see why.
 
 
The indys help support each other in the whole decision process.
 
Let me know what you think so far.
 
And if you like what you see. Please give thanks.
 
%5Bimg%5Dhttp%3A//i1096.photobucket.com/albums/g336/ismael360/tradelikeaboss2.gif[/img]
 
Just remember the Range indicator is very important. You shouldn't take the trade unless you have the Range white line crossing the Top black line for a buy trade and cross the Bottom black line for a sell entry.
I want the Range line to be facing up or down when it does it's cross.
A Flat Range line is a weak signal.
 
Use the Trend signal Arrows to confirms your entry decision. At least until you get the hang of this setup.
When you get a Trend Sig Arrow, make sure you got Trend bars across the the DSR ( the grey hashmarks), or at least the mid line of the hashmarks before you take your entry.
DSR. Stands for Dynamic Support & Resistance. It's support and resistance that adjusts to price while price moves. So you want to break past S & R before taking a entry on a trade. You might even want to wait for price to retest the S & R that you just broke thru before you enter a trade.
 
http://i1096.photobucket.com/albums/g336/ismael360/TradeSignal.jpg
 
Also on the Trend Sig. When it stop. What I mean is say your getting trend signal arrows on each candle and every candle afterwards, but then on the next candle you don't.
The streak of trend arrows has stopped so this means the trend may have slowed down or even stoped. So this is something to keep in mind.
 
Another that you want to pay attention to is the Murey Math. There a many ways to use murrey math, and if someone has some ideas on how else to use it here to beter trading this setup, please let me know.
 
But as for me, I try to keep it as simple as possible.
So what I look is how much price has moved across the murrey math map.
I do this to get an idea to when it may be running out of gas and when it may want to start going in the other direction.
So say price trends downwards for a while and then it comes into the oversold areas of Murrey math. The 1/8 and -1/8 area and beyond. Now I'm looking for signs of weekness.
Like a double or triple bottom.
Now that I'm in the over sold area of the murrey math. I'm not looking to take anymore sell trades.
I'm now looking for the trend to change and go upwards
 
On Take Profit It will be different for each time frame. I will set a predetermined number of pips that I want to take profit at. For the 1hr eur/usd for example I would strive for around 60 pips.
I always open 2 trades on a pair at a time, this way I can try and make the second trade run.
So I open 2 trades on the eur/usd and set the first trade to take profit at 60 pips or the nearest monthly pivot, s/r. Once I have taken this first take profit on the first trade I let the second run until the candles change color against me.
The how point of this is to bag my first trade early to give me leeway to let the second run.
This is just my style of trading, you should do what works for you.
 
When it comes to StopLoss. I first set an initial stop loss of 80-100 pips to avoid my account from being wiped out from some freakish news.
Once I take the trade off the DSR in the direction I want to go, and the trade has moved my way a little I then move my stoploss to just above or below the last small gann line entry.
The whole point of me doing this is that I want to get out if the trade goes against me. When price goes against you and it hits the last high or low of the last small gann line then the gannline changes and price can be going against you. Keep in mind that when a trade first begins that it can go up and down until it goes the way it is going to go that 's why I wait until the trade goes my way a little before moving stoploss close to small gannline.
Again this is just the way I do it, so you should do how ever you feel confortable trading.
 
I hope this help.
 
Download here:
 
http://www.sendspace.com/file/mxs6nd
 
 
Ish
 
p. s. Xard wanted me to thank those who help me find his book, regards.

Hi Conglo,
 
That makes sense, because backtesting is simulating real-time, so if you attach both indicators then they will tie up most of the time.
 
The thing to do is run the backtest and have the trend/histogram indicator on a different MT4 (or just attach it to a chart in the same MT4 after the backtest and remember to take a screenshot of the backtest ;) ) then compare the values.
 
What we'd normally do in manual backtesting is just attach the trend/histogram indicator to a chart with the main indicator and scroll backwards to look at what the master probability value was when we had the pivot (small box) signals as a "heads up" to enter trades.
 
That's where the problem is. Something is going wrong when the trend/histogram indicator is calculating probability when we scroll back. It's probably some variables not been cleared or something like that though it's not obvious to me where the discrepancies are.
 
Here's an example. This is what the indicator looks like in the backtester in visual mode (which is correct I believe):
 
http://i55.tinypic.com/9a1wlw.jpg
 
...and this is what it looks like when we scroll back:
 
http://i51.tinypic.com/6p9rau.jpg
 
As you can see, we have totally different histograms.
 
I've noticed that when scrolling back, the indicator appears to have a bias for master probability values which are > 0, though as yet I don't know why there should be any difference between doing this and looking at the backtest histograms.
 
BTW guys - despite the "cheesy" marketing, this is sophisticated stuff and wanrayman has already shown that we can do very nicely trading this system :) Just look at the weightings for the timeframes which were hidden in the code - these don't come out of nowhere, someone at sometime has put a lot of effort into determining these weightings. I feel we have a real winner on our hands here and now we are able to "tune" the code (all thanks to conglo) according to our needs, we can definitely make it even better ;)

Here's what I've been doing:
 
Put any EA on the chart for visual testing, just make a template with the PA indis.
 
I visually tested with open prices only and displayed the data window with the cursor on the last bar, then watched the master probability text display against the new indi reading in the data window.
 
Most of the time the indi value would match the master probability reading but would print to the indi one or two bars later. Sometimes it will miss a bar, but most of the time it's just a bar or two late.
 
Using the open prices may have something to do with this, I don't know enough about this stuff.
 
Hope this helps.

Well, I think we'd have worked out that the MA flags came from a combination of the 3 MAs crossing and the candle High/Low in the case of SMA (explaining those 0 values).
 
Good to see that RSI and Stochs had levels of 35 and 65 as expected :)
 
Also good to see that the timeframe parameters were unused, however these were also causing the confusion in the probability calcs.
 
It looks as though the developer was originally going to make these parameters and then realised later that another 8 sets of 9 parameters were needed - hence the whole lot was hardcoded with various weighting numbers for each timeframe depending on the timeframe being viewed.
 
I think eventually we'd have worked out these numbers too. I was starting to pinpoint specific indicator calculations by setting the indicator weighting to 100% so that all the rest were ignored. A few more tests like this and we'd have realised that certain constants appeared to be required as further weightings to get back to the correct probability value.
 
Thanks again Conglo, you've saved us a lot more digging around.
 
Now...onto "phase II" of the project. I'll see if I can change that whacky probability indicator into something that we can read and use in manual backtesting. When we have that then we can look at the backtests along with S/R, pivots, Fibs, other indicators etc. and see if we can make any improvements.

Hi Guys,
 
I've tidied up the code in Trend_Prob indicator and have changed it into a more readable histogram:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/KQZVPVWZJ6
 
However...the problem is that although the current value of the indicator ties in exactly with the current master probability, going back in history shows some suspect values.
 
Why do I think these are suspect? Well, for one they don't make sense based on what I've seen from the master probability in live and also we can prove that they're not correct.
 
The way to do this is to backtest the main Pips_Accumulator indicator in visual mode as I mentioned earlier and to compare the master probability at say 15:50 this afternoon (where it showed as a +ve number in backtest, but remained -ve in the histogram).
 
There's something subtle which is wrong here as the code comes straight from Trend_Prob and there's not an obvious reason why it should give different values to those seen from the main indicator in backtest as they appear to be using the same routines. This is one for you expert coders to check out this weekend ;)
 
Here's a screenshot of II_Prob_Hist for interest:
 
http://i55.tinypic.com/2nlyd1w.jpg

Indicators have successfully been decompiled.
 
Will post when I receive them.