maybe

Nice journal, keeping an eye on this one, are you using the SMA's as the trend direction or are they support and resistance? From what i see on your charts you are not using them as a cross over system which raises my level of interest somewhat.

Keep up the good work!

 

Thanks syk1kz, ya I find the smas tend to link with the sr levels to give a good indicator of the strength of the level, I trade mostly based on price action, and crossing mas are too laggy.

 

I've been reading your posts on bennys topic for a while now, so I'll be keeping an eye on your new journal too ;)

 

As for me I won't be updating the journal for a while as I'm currently coding a bot and indi to recognise penants and flags and trade their breaks. This is proving difficult enough as they are very visual patterns, but I think I've worked through the blunt of the code.

 

Also while coding this bot I accidentally created a strategy that trades reversals on the m1 timeframe! At the moment it has a profit factor of exactly 1 on a couple of hundred trades in a 3 month backtest, but with a max of only 2 consecutive losses, and the way the bot is designed, I think that integrating a martingale money management system should solve this problem and return an enormous amount of profit. I'll keep in touch.

Good news from last friday, went through with 2 trades which were both successful. The 1st trade was shorting against the audusd break, closing with a small tp of 10 pips. The close was close though, as the aud then break out of it's when the nfp came out. Speaking of nfp, my other trade was simply trading long on eurusd when the nfp came out negative for the dollar. Locked in a tidy 40 pips with minimal effort and minimal risk. However I ended up manually closing the trade early at 40 pips due to fear of an engulfing pattern, and it did indeed end up hitting my original tp of 70 pips. Sometimes it's difficult to stick to your plan and risk turning a profit into a break even.

 

Anyway don't have much time, so quickly for todays trade I will be trading the extremely obvious and popular bearish move on the eurusd. I have a sell limit set to sell eu when it hits it's resistance at 1.3464, with an sl of ~50 pips and a tp of ~150 pips, a risk reward ratio I am not used to. I'm not sure if my tp is too ambitious however, so I'll keep an eye on the news to see if anything might upset any profits.

 

There is of course also the chance that the 1.3464 price won't be hit and the order won't be triggered, with eu just going straight down. I'm willing to take this risk as otherwise my sl would need to be 3 times larger to cope with the price fluctuating, whereas now I can keep it safe just above the resistance.

 

http://i.imgur.com/x5UhQ.gif

Ok so yesterdays trade did not go to plan with a strong loss, thankfully I kept the sl low when making the trade. The reason the trade stopped out was due to a massive sudden bearish spike that recouped within an hour. I assume this was caused by some news announcement, but it's over now so I'll just move on. Here's a shot of the price atm.

 

http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa397/maybe_nope/resultofloss.gif

 

Atm I'm not going to make any concrete orders, but I plan on trading actively tomorrow if I get up (london opens in 3 and a half hours and I need some sleep). The reason I'm not setting up pending orders is due to the nfp which comes out tomorrow. However if the nfp does come out with little movement or movement supporting the dollar, I will go bullish on the dollar until it reaches it's channel range, roughly at around 1.3271. At that point I imagine I will short heavily within the major sr levels. My concern is that price geometry is never this straightforward, and I'm very much expecting something unexpected to happen.

 

http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa397/maybe_nope/buyeurusdmediumtermplusnfp.gif

 

And lastly a trade that everyone is spotting at the moment, a strong bearish trade on audusd, or a break outside of it's channel. Once again I'm waiting for the news to come out before making any decisions, but if I wasn't I would make a sell trade with a sl just outside of the channel, and another buy order just outside the channel if it did break. Seems kinda of like a win win situation, but if the markets don't move as much as expected, then it could just be 2 nagging sls in your account.

 

http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa397/maybe_nope/audusdbreakoutofrange.gif

 

As I mentioned earlier 1 of my 2 trades mentioned earlier was executed today, and thankfully it was a successful one. I'm tempted to now cancel the other pending order, but I think I'll leave it there over the course of the day as it's unlikely it'll be hit unless something big happens, and in that case it should end up being profitable.

 

My new order is longing eurusd if it breaks a major resistance and a minor resitance. I'm being aggressive with my tp this time round, being double my sl, simply because if it rebreaks the resitance, then there's not much hope in it take another leap up. This trade is with the trend, but my main concern is that the order price may not be past the bb break, but I won't know that until morning, and I've no plans on getting up for it ;) Other than that, the trade seems fairly safe (which is the reason for the large tp), and equally unlikely, so with 2 unlikely trades in the mix, it might be a quiet trading day after all.

 

The graph should tell it all, and I've included my prediction for the price, which I now realise may be slightly exaggerated, aswell as exaggerated time (the spikes would happen early rather than later). Also, the purple line probably won't happen, it's just what I want to happen ;)

 

http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa397/maybe_nope/Forex%20Screenshots/buy_stop_1_2_dec_2010.gif

Ok good news, the 2nd trade was successful only a few minutes after making it thanks to a major spike in euro, probably could've made alot more pips if I was paying attention but happy with the 100 pip profit.

 

http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa397/maybe_nope/Forex%20Screenshots/profitongu.gif

Sso as expected the trade didn't pull through as it never broke the weekly pivot. On the bright side though it was stuck in a range for about 4 hours so I managed to come out with 3 successful trades with small profit by trading within bollinger bands.

 

Ok so todays 1st order is aiming to catch a bearish break on a support at roughly 1.304 on eurusd. The reasons for this are fairly straightforward, it keeps with the trend, it would be a support break, it would be a middle bollinger bands and it's already just broken the 50 sma. I set my tp to the next nearest support to play it safe, and set my sl to just above the previous resistance, which admittedly gives me a poor risk reward ratio.

 

http://i.imgur.com/cZzqZ.gifp

 

The 2nd order is aiming to profit from a bullish break in gpdusd. I'm aiming for a safe and small profit with minimal risk. Not alot of reasons for this trade, it's just a run of the mill sr break. The reason I'm picking this range in particular though is that atm the gpdusd looks unsure about its direction and is bouncing within a range, I believe that if it breaks that range it will shoot one way.

 

Another reason I'm making it long is that it's more likely that one of my 2 trades will be executed, since now I'm trading for and against the dollar.

 

I'm hoping that if the 2nd trade executes, that it doesn't bounce off the bb before it hits the resistance, but we'll see.

 

http://i.imgur.com/uhHCq.gif

Hey all, seeing as I've gotten so much great info from this forum I thought I'd start to contribute back a bit. I just want to state for the record that I am not an expert on anything forex related and taking my advice is not advised. I am however, trading these trades on a real money account.

 

Anyway the 1st trade I'd like to post is this possible bearish break on EURUSD on the 1st of December, 2010. The screenshot kind of says it all. If the price breaks the support by more than a few pips, my pending order kicks in. The reason I think it will be a break is fairly clear with the consolidating triangle following the bearish downtrend and the price bouncing off the middle bollinger band.

 

This said if it broke the upper bollinger band or 50 sma, then I would be willing to trade bullish, but since I don't want to stay up all night watching the price, I'll only make the bearish pending order as I can't predict at what price the 50 sma will be at when/if the price breaks.

 

I'm setting my tp and sl to just above the next and previous resistance levels, roughly a 1:1 risk ratio. Finally a look at m30, h4 and d1 confirms that there is no major support I am trading into, so I'm satisfied with the probability of the trade.

 

I am perfectly aware that this trade will most likely not happen, the price is a major support level on the weekly chart. This is also my concern though, as I'm worried that the price will not fall through enough to hit my tp, but will just trigger my order due to the vagueness of the weekly support. Anyway, I'll leave the trade there for atleast a day until it gets triggered, and we'll see what happens!

 

http://i.imgur.com/H1F6g.gif

 

The indicators are 30,50 and 100 sma, and bollinger bands.

This is in the wrong forum, sorry, I'll repost in the journal forum. If a mod could delete this it would be great.

Hey all, seeing as I've gotten so much great info from this forum I thought I'd start to contribute back a bit. I just want to state for the record that I am not an expert on anything forex related and taking my advice is not advised. I am however, trading these trades on a real money account.

 

Anyway the 1st trade I'd like to post is this possible bearish break on EURUSD on the 1st of December, 2010. The screenshot kind of says it all. If the price breaks the support by more than a few pips, my pending order kicks in. The reason I think it will be a break is fairly clear with the consolidating triangle following the bearish downtrend and the price bouncing off the middle bollinger band.

 

This said if it broke the upper bollinger band or 50 sma, then I would be willing to trade bullish, but since I don't want to stay up all night watching the price, I'll only make the bearish pending order as I can't predict at what price the 50 sma will be at when/if the price breaks.

 

I'm setting my tp and sl to just above the next and previous resistance levels, roughly a 1:1 risk ratio. Finally a look at m30, h4 and d1 confirms that there is no major support I am trading into, so I'm satisfied with the probability of the trade.

 

I am perfectly aware that this trade will most likely not happen, the price is a major support level on the weekly chart. This is also my concern though, as I'm worried that the price will not fall through enough to hit my tp, but will just trigger my order due to the vagueness of the weekly support. Anyway, I'll leave the trade there for atleast a day until it gets triggered, and we'll see what happens!

 

http://i.imgur.com/H1F6g.gif

 

The indicators are 30,50 and 100 sma, and bollinger bands.

Can you link me to the video? I don't quite understand the system. Is it just you want to buy when the price closes higher everyday for the last 6 days? Wouldn't you be better off waiting until a resistance is hit and trading against the trend? I can't see a system working that enters the trend so late, but I'll make a bot if you specify.

I'm thinking of making an EA for this strategy (shouldn't be very hard). I was wondering if people in the thread could specify how they want to use the 34 ema?

I am trying to make an ea using this ea builder and editing the code manually after.

 

The ea uses stoch and cci to determine when to trade. Well it's meant to, but my problem is that it sometimes ignores the rules set. It always start the trades on close like I have set, it doesn't always wait until the cci is over 100 like I have set, and 90% of losing trades have a value of -17.00,-18.00 and -19.00 (the exact values) despite the stoploss of 50000 being turned off. The last one is the weirdest as whatever I set my sl to, it stops and the report says (eur/usd) price: 137646, s/l .87464, exactly 50000 down. Finally, probably to do with the last problem, it stops a trade randomly and restarts it for no apparent reason.

 

Here is the quite small .mq4 file, if anyone can give me some advice on how to fix it I'd be very grateful.

 

http://dep0sitfiles.com/files/fzf875dcp

When I saw 5 second timeframe and 2 pips sl I got a bit worried, but the op has a good point. Let us know how you get on.

The link to 4xpredictor is somewhere in the thread. I've used it and often it is right, but not knowing how it calculates its decisions and not really knowing exactly how to use it (unless you just follow it blindly) I find it hard to use. It has a handy feature though of telling you what percentage of people are buying or selling, even though it doesn't make sense as it gives different values for different timeframes..

What lwjw said. Disregard my last post too, I mixed up the lotsizes.

 

In an effort to be helpful, there's a pdf called true money management that explains some of this

 

http://www.multiupload.com/16U1QR2933

Depends on your trading strategy and how much risk is involved. Alot of people would recommend using 2% of your account (although I use 5%). You can work this out by taking 2% of your account and dividing that by your risk in pips (ie the amount of pips until your stoploss). So if your stoploss is -300 pips, then that's 1000/50=20, 20 divided by 300 = .06 lotsize. This is with a leverage of 1:100. This way you have a higher risk when you have a larger account, and a lower risk when you've a smaller account, so you can suffer a losing streak indefinitely, and earn exponentially in a winning streak.

 

However if your using indicators to dictate when to stop, then you can't work out your lotsize that way, you can only do that if you know your stoploss in advance.

The android store has 2 apps that let you control your mt4 account remotely. 1 is free and I think the other is $10 a month. I have yet to try them, but if they're good I can imagine them being a godsend.

Congrats on the 112 pips, sorry bout the earlier mistake, my gartley indicator was the only indicator relevant to the h4 timeframe, and it looked promising :/

 

I'm interested in what you think will happen now (it's at .71905 at time of writing), you could trust fibs and hope it gets to .73041 which is where the last major stop was felt (apart from the very last stop, which has already been passed), but it's been going strongly long now for a while now, and stoch says it's pretty overbought.

 

Also, do you take news into account when trading? With the amount of news reports coming out every day I'd imagine it can be a bit dodgy setting a medium term position when a report could turn everything on it's head.

It looks like a bearish gantley is formed on nzdusd, I reckon it'll go short and continue down to the .70000 - .69949 range, after that not a clue.

 

Thanks for opening me up to the nzdusd pair, it seems very trending and a tad more predictable than eurusd.

Hi, and one more time a charlatan get a free indicator and rename it to sell to uninformed peoples

get the 'HARMONIC ANALYZER' here:

 

http://[email protected]/file/2v8EXn9x/Gartley_v102.html

 

It require to much memory but it´s very good!

 

Thanks very much this is one of the most useful indicators I've ever come across!

 

Quick question though do you know if a box means that there's going to be a change in direction of the trend, or that it has hit a SR level, or something else?

Osaze thanks that works perfectly!

 

dave_rimmer I thought I just replied but my post doesn't appear to have gone through (it might be being validated), anyway here is the (old) ex4, dll and pdf, remember you'll need to replace the old .ex4 with osazes new one!

 

http://www.multiupload.com/81GKC0U16Z

 

And for anyone else, this EA isn't really an EA, it maps a key on your keyboard to execute a specific enough type of trade, very useful when trading news stories to just press one button and be in the trade, instead of bringing up the trade dialogue, which can feel like forever!

Can you supply the full Ea with the original DLL and manual

the version by Osaze does not work and asks for dll

 

Yep! Keep in mind you'll still probably need to replace the .ex4 with osazes fixed .ex4 (which I haven't yet tested, I'll get back to you on that osaze!).

 

http://www.multiupload.com/81GKC0U16Z

now we just need that steintz fractal indicator to complete the collection of his 3 main programs

 

Hi, I have the fractal breakout indicator but recently its been saying that my account number is incorrect, here it is anyway just incase anyone knows how to patch it ;)

 

hxxp://[email protected]/C7YAZXI9IF

Good call on the 1st 2 retractions! I think it will break through the 1st resistance at .69650 or at .69722 and continue upward. Although the recent trend over the last few days seems to mirror the waves from jun16 to jun25, so there might be something to that!

 

But that's just a basic guess, I trade on m15 myself and really amn't used to H4 ;)

It'd be fantastic if you could unlock this quite basic ea!

 

hxxp://[email protected]/A7E0AGXJF8

 

Thanks!