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Fundamental Analysis May 7 EUR/USD picked up 52 focuses to exchange at 1.3927 setting itself up for a significant fall. Climbing relentlessly after eurozone administrations PMI basically beat desires and Spanish unemployment reported much superior to anticipated. Numerous accept this is all a measurable abnormality as Spain is not in a recuperation mode and with the Easter occasion amidst the month a considerable measure of information was most likely not arranged. GBP/USD added 83 points to be the best market performed today after Services PMI data beat expectations. The pound soared to trade at 1.6951 with the possibility of breaking the 1.70 level later in the session. AUD/USD gained 7 points after the announcement of the RBA decision to hold rates and policy this morning. The pair is trading at 0.9280. In a strange twist, data showed that Australia’s trade surplus has narrowed, driven by a fall in mining exports. USD/JPY climbed off the 101 level touched as markets opened on Monday on safe haven trades with tensions escalating in Ukraine. The yen strengthen last week as the BoJ held rates and fire offering a better than expected assessment of the Japanese economy. Gold is trading at 1307.60 down by $1.70 as traders closely monitor the situation in Ukraine but strong US data seems to be outweighing the flight to safety as ISM data a day before surprised markets to the upside. Gold has been trading sideways after it fell sharply after hitting a seven-month high at 1392 USD in mid-March.
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Fundamental Analysis May 2 EUR/USD is exchanging at 1.3880 crawling higher on Thursday having ridden out two days of more terrible than anticipated news on Eurozone swelling and the US economy that have not in a broad sense modified observations of the approach viewpoint in either. GBP/USD outperformed its crosses to hit a 2014 trading at 1.6911 after strong manufacturing PMI data surprised the markets to the upside. AUD/USD is down just 2 points at 0.9287 after data releases this morning. Australia’s dollar held a two-day gain after Chinese data showed manufacturing picked up in April. USD/JPY is trading at 102.30 up by 7 points after the US dollar declined on Wednesday; the pair is recovering the overreaction to lackluster GDP data but extremely positive ADP payroll numbers. Gold continued to creep down trading at 1285.00 down almost $11 after the US FOMC continued its tapering program and tensions eased in the Ukraine. Traders pushed the Dow Jones to a record high yesterday
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Fundamental Analysis April 30 EUR/USD is exchanging at 1.3818 around 33 focuses after the US dollar kept on gainning on stronger information and the moving of pressures in the Ukraine. The euro fell Tuesday taking after German expansion assumes that fortify the view that the European Central Bank will need to grow jolt measures. GBP/USD gained 10 points to trade at 1.6818 contrary to market expectations after GDP missed expectations but still printed well above the previous month. Traders are now sure that the Bank of England will begin to increase interest rates this year. AUD/USD is trading at 0.9249 in the red this morning as traders wait for several major events this week, as there has nothing to affect the currency value except for continued worries about China after the IMF revised China’s growth for 2015 downwards. USD/JPY is dead on its trading range at 102.49 ahead of the Bank of Japan decision. Although most believe that the Bank will sit tight at this meeting traders are hoping for some indication of if and when the bank is expecting to add additional stimulus and their evaluation of the current economic situation. Gold gave up just over $4 to trade at 1294.80 ahead of the Fed decision as global sentiment shifted to a more risk on attitude as its seems that tensions in the Ukraine have petered out and the insignificant sanctions mounted by both the US and the EU had little effects on the markets.
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Fundamental Analysis April 25 EUR/USD picked up 11 point today after US information disillusioned trader yesterday with new home deals falling admirably underneath desires. The euro was exchanging at 1.3828 in front of Mario Draghi's discourse this evening where he is relied upon to remark on the high cost of the euro. GBP/USD gained 13 points to trade at 1.6796 as traders recovered from their disappointment in the MPC minutes. Speculators seem sure that the BoE was close to raising interest rates but the minutes showed that the members were not even considering a rate hike at this time and are waiting for more assurances that the economy is under full recovery. AUD/USD recovered 4 points after Wednesday’s decline after inflation reported lower than expected. The AUD is trading at 0.9294 well below its April trading range. Even the declining US dollar did not help support the currency. Traders were hit with a decline in China manufacturing. USD/JPY eased by 21 points as the US dollar declined to trade at 102.32 after the dollar declined on lackluster new home sales Gold is flat for the day moving between gains and losses with no direction as traders take a breather after the situation in the Ukraine seems to have puffed out. Gold remains at the 1284.00 price level.
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Fundamental Analysis April 24 EUR/USD moved to exchange at 1.3838. The euro zone streak PMI was stronger than anticipated, and this helped lift the euro about a large portion of a penny and further bond its recuperation from the dip to seven-day lows yesterday. GBP/USD eased by 28 points to trade at 1.6795 after the MPC meeting minutes seemed to indicated that the members were not contemplating an interest rate increase in the near future. AUD/USD recovered 4 points after Wednesday’s decline after inflation reported lower than expected. The AUD is trading at 0.9294 well below its April trading range. Even the declining US dollar did not help support the currency. Traders were hit with a decline in China manufacturing. USD/JPY eased by 21 points as the US dollar declined to trade at 102.32 after the dollar declined on lackluster new home sales. “The WSJ reported yesterday that the BOJ may upgrade its inflation forecast for FY2014 if the April Tokyo CPI, due to be released on Friday, is strong.†“Unnamed sources familiar with the matter in a WSJ article emphasized that a 2% inflation forecast for FY2015-16 does not necessarily mean the BOJ will consider exiting monetary easing any time soon. Gold recovered $5.30 to trade at 1286.40 but remains directionless as data continues to support an increase in tapering at the next FOMC meet..
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Fundamental Analysis April 23 EUR/USD picked up 20 focuses to exchange at 1.3813 staying inside its late exchanging reach with no Eurozone information and US information still before the businesses. GBP/USD was the star performer today adding 35 points to trade at 1.6827. Decent factory production figures combined with another strong month for the labor market sent March’s index of US Leading Indicators higher. AUD is trading at 0.9348 after trading as high as 0.95 just a week ago. The US dollar has climbed above the 80 level as is expected to continue to gain as US data supports the defrost of the US economy after the severe winter freeze. USD/JPY was the most active currency pair on Monday and continues to climb on Tuesday trading at 102.67 above its average trading range as data released on the Easter Monday holiday upset traders and analysts. Gold recovered a few dollars today moving between small gains and losses with little direction as tensions seemed to ease in Ukraine. Gold is trading at 1291.40. Gold recovered from early losses on Tuesday as the dollar gave back some gains, but sentiment among investors continued to be fragile on further outflows from bullion-backed funds.
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Fundamental Analysis April 22 EUR/USD completed marginally better on Monday joined by unstable value movement. Volume was down as a result of the developed Easter festival. Germany, Italy and France are all on bank occasion today. Trading was limited in the GBP/USD today due to an extended Easter bank holiday. Later this week, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest data from the Monetary Policy Committee although this report is expected to show no surprises. On deck is the MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, followed by Public Sector Net Borrowing. AUD/USD saw some volatility on Monday. Thin holiday trading conditions may have had something to do with the two-sided trade. Traders could be positioning themselves ahead of the CB Leading Index report Gold futures were down a little more than 0.50 percent on Monday. Price reached a low of $1281.80 before stabilizing. The market crossed to the weak side of a retracement level at $1289.45 before taking out last week’s low. Traders are looking for the slide to continue to at least the April 1 bottom at $1277.40, followed by a 61.8% level at $1265.20.
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Fundamental Analysis April 17 EUR/USD gained 20 points to trade at 1.3835 and I cannot explain why. CPI missed expectations which will force action from the ECB. Perhaps it is a correction after comments from Mr. Draghi and other ECB members over the weekend about stimulus to push inflation upwards had already been taken into account by the markets. GBP/USD remains the stellar performer as the UK economy keeps moving forward showing a stronger recovery than the US. Today the unemployment figure drops 2 points to report at 6.9% which might push the Bank of England to consider raising interest rates. USD/CAD traded between small gains and losses as the US dollar gained a bit of momentum to trade at 1.0981 ahead of US and CAD data due towards the end of the European session. Gold is trading just over the 1300 level at 1302.50 up $2.20 today ahead of US data and this evenings speech by FOMC Director Yellen. Pressures continue to climb in the Ukraine but traders are no longer moving to safety. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak on monetary policy and the economic recovery later on Wednesday.
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EUR/USD fell on Tuesday after the arrival of a disillusioning German ZEW Economic Sentiment report. The administration reported a drop to 43.2 from 46.6. Moguls were searching for 46.3. The decrease in the ZEW puts further weight on the European Central Bank to make a move to empower the economy, however the ECB is liable to hold up until the arrival of most recent CPI information on Wednesday. This report is relied upon to show a 0.5% perusing which will be unaltered from the past month. GBP/USD rallied after U.K. inflation data fell in-line with expectations. The headline year-on-year CPI data fell to the lowest level since October 2009 and the year-on-year measure of retail inflation declined to its weakest level in nearly five years. One bright spot was the surge in the House Price Index. This report exceeded expectations with a 9.1% rise. Traders were pricing in an increase of 7.2%. AUD/USD rose slightly following the release of the latest Reserve Bank minutes, but failed to hold on to its gains. The minutes didn’t offer any surprises for traders and was viewed as somewhat neutral. Some traders thought the recent run up in the Aussie would have been addressed in the minutes, but the central bank seemed to be unfazed by the price level. USD/JPY finished flat-to-slightly better following the release of better-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data. According to the latest data, the U.S. CPI rose 0.2 percent in March, versus expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Helping to limit gains was the weak Empire State Manufacturing Index. Traders were looking for a robust gain of 8.2. The actual report showed a decline of 1.3. Gold futures plunged sharply lower after the better-than-expected U.S. CPI report helped trigger a rally in the dollar. Since gold is dollar-denominated, a stronger dollar tends to weaken demand for gold, pressuring the commodity.
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EUR/USD moved by 11 focuses unable to move over the 1.39 level. The EUR is flat to yesterday's nearby, having neglected to support a short rally over 1.3900. A few outskirts yields have dropped to new lows—note that both Italian and Spanish 10â€years are currently at 3.2%. German CPI came in obviously with feature tumbling from 1.2% in February to 1.0%y/y in March; the delicateness was normal yet denote a threeâ€year low in German feature inflation and will weigh on Eurozone inflation, which thusly will weigh on the ECB. Today a viewpoint update for Portugal (Fitch to positive) was offset by a standpoint downsize to Finland (S&p to negative on development concerns). Next week's center will be the arrival of Eurozone CPI, anticipated that will raise 0.5%y GBP/USD gave up 58 points to trade at 1.6726 as the US dollar gained momentum. . The GBP is soft, down 0.2% since yesterday’s NA close failing to sustain brief gains above 1.68. Construction output was soft, down 2.8%m/m and up 2.8%y/y. Next week’s focus will be the release of CPI, expected to fall to 1.6% on headline and core as well as employment. AUD/USD eased by 9 points as traders booked profits after last week’s strong showing and continued worries over the Chinese economy with GDP due later in the week and the holiday season many traders are booking profits and moving to the sidelines. The Aussie is trading at 0.9390 well above its 2014 average range. USD/JPY eased by 7 points as traders moved to the safety of the Japanese currency, pushing the pair to trade at 101.56. Asian share markets gave up more ground in early trade this morning after a dismal week on Wall Street, helping underpin the safe-haven yen. The low-yielding yen benefited from the heightened risk aversion. The dollar was down about 0.1 percent in early trading at 101.56 yen, after touching a 3-1/2 week low of 101.32 yen on Friday, a far cry from a 2-1/2 month high of 104.13 yen set on April 4. Gold moved between gains and losses today, to trade at 1321.70 its highest level in weeks. Risk appetite was also curbed by tensions in Ukraine, where pro-Moscow protesters seized arms in one city and declared a separatist republic in another, in moves Kiev described as part of a Russian-orchestrated plan to justify an invasion to dismember the country. Gold, seen as an alternative investment, usually benefits from economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
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Fundamental Analysis April 9 EUR/USD added 27 focuses to exchange at 1.3769 after the dollar plunged as dealers re-assessed the FOMC taping and rate increment. Dealers are holding up to see the points of interest of the last Fed gathering in tomorrow's moment discharge. Climbing pressures in Ukraine likewise tempered speculator craving for danger. Ace Moscow dissenters in eastern Ukraine seized arms in one city and announced a separatist republic in an alternate. Ukraine on Monday called the moves a piece of a Russian plan to legitimize an attack. GBP/USD soared today adding 91 points after positive economic data releases. The GBP is trading at 1.6699 and is likely to break the 1.67 range before the end of the day. Industrial production and manufacturing production both exceeded forecast. Sterling rose to its highest in three weeks against the dollar and a one-month maximum against the euro after data on Tuesday showed industrial output rose much faster than forecast in February. AUD/USD added 11 points to trade at 0.9281 after the release of the NAB business confidence report which printed a bit lower than the previous month. Traders moved from equities to commodity currencies as earning season begins today. The value of Reserve Bank of Australia’s foreign currency reserves jumped by $US10 billion ($10.8 billion) last month just as emerging market central bankers accelerated their intervention in foreign exchange markets in an attempt support their economies. USD/JPY gave up 12 points to trade at 102.98 remaining well above its trading range as the JPY strengthened after the Bank of Japan held rates and policy this morning. Today’s decision said that Japan’s economy has continued to recover moderately, and noted front-loaded demand ahead of the April sales-tax bump. Overseas economies, mainly advanced ones, are starting to recover, the BOJ said. Gold continued to climb today as geopolitical tensions grew between Russia and the Ukraine. Gold added $12.20 to trade at 1310.50. Foreign currency market sources think that the Federal Reserve will postpone the tapering of bond purchases, following the disappointing jobs report for March. Businesses added 192,000 jobs during the month, below expectations of 199,000 jobs. The unemployment rate in the US remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared with expectations of a drop to 6.6%.
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The USD/JPY gained 17 points to trade at 103.84 as the yen loses
fxnet replied to fxnet's topic in Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental Analysis April 4 EUR/USD is flat ahead of the ECB meeting. the choice is expected in simply a couple of hours, yet the firecrackers will probably be later in the day at Mr. Draghi's question and answer session. Merchants can anticipate that the Governing Council will simplicity arrangement unassumingly at this gathering, through a little cut in key rates or liquidity activities. Aggressive unconventional policies remain distant. The ECB may introduce new liquidity measures today to counter tightness in funding conditions, but we think they will most likely not deliver additional rate cuts or monetary policy accommodation. GBP/USD gave up 16 points to trade at 1.6610 after UK services PMI missed expectations and also printed lower than last months. It is not a major upset to the markets but enough to see some traders moving away from the pound as the US dollar continues to climb. Sterling fell to a day’s low against the dollar and the euro on Thursday, after UK services sector expanded at a slower-than- expected pace in March. AUD/USD eased by 33 points against a much stronger greenback after more data showed a steady recovery in the US economy. Retail sales in Australia missed expectations this morning and the trade balance widened more than expected but remain less than the previous months. In Australia, the RBA wants Australia’s biggest banks and building societies to pay a levy to help pay for a fund that will protect their own depositors in the event of a banking collapse. USD/JPY soared to trade at 104.05 as the dollar gained momentum after the ADP data release on Wednesday showed that the private employers created more jobs than in previous months and there was a strong upward revision to the previous month. The Japanese yen declined against other major currencies in Asian morning deals on Thursday as investor sentiment rose on strong U.S. data and China’s mini stimulus package designed to boost spending on railways and tax relief for struggling small businesses. Gold reversed course and begin to ease giving up $4.50 to trade at 1286.30 after climbing in the Asian session as high as 1293. Traders are beginning to take positions ahead of tomorrow’s NFP and after comment from several Federal Reserve members all saying that we would likely see an interest rate increase in mid-2015. Investors are waiting on a European Central Bank policy statement later in the session and monthly jobs data from the U.S. Friday. -
EUR/USD : is level for the day, exchanging at 1.3794 unable to support the 1.38 level after Spanish unemployment indicated a huge drop in cases and yearly GDP met desires, in spite of the fact that quarterly GDP printed underneath figure. The euro also ticked higher. Like the dollar it tends to draw support from prospects of higher world growth and is also supported by expectations the European Central Bank will steer clear on Thursday of any action to ease monetary policy. A rising dollar was this year’s big call for many banks and funds in January and most have been disappointed, with a falloff in growth in China and a euro bolstered by returning flows of capital instead the dominant trends. GBP/USD : climbed by 14 points after construction PMI printed close to expectations but showing strong growth. The pound is trading at 1.6642 as traders evaluate the Bank of England’s next move now that the economy is recovering steadily. The improved outlook suggests the Bank of England may tighten monetary policy in the next 12 months. AUD/USD : eased to trade at 0.9235 giving up 13 points after building approvals missed expectations. The currency continues to remain well above its trading range on hopes of stimulus from the Chinese government. The RBA kept the target cash rate at 2.5 percent, as expected, and kept its view that rates won’t change while the central bank supports the economy. USD/JPY : gained 17 points to trade at 103.84 as the yen loses its value as traders are now expecting the Bank of Japan to add stimulus to offset the negative effects of the sales tax increase which went into effect on April 1st. The combination of rising global equity markets with rising U.S. Treasury yields is a catalyst for USD/JPY to move higher,†said Kit Juckes, analyst at Societe Generale Gold : added $3.90 ahead of the ADP payroll release to trade at 1283.90 as traders begin to take position ahead of the ECB and the NFP over the next two days. The ADP jobs report will be the main event that traders are waiting for with data due to be released in just a few hours. Having fallen 8% in just over two weeks, gold “hasn’t found a host of willing buyers looking to pick up cheaper metal,†said UBS analyst Adel Tully. “Some buying interest has emerged on the lows, but further downside has been prevented largely because sellers are in short supply.â€