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COZforex: The New Zealand dollar was lower against its US counterpart on Wednesday, despite positive inflation data out of New Zealand, as comments by Federal Reserve Chairman sent the greenback broadly higher. NZD/USD hit 0.8326 amid late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8337, shedding 0.43%. Meanwhile, NZD/USD was likely to find support at 0.8268, the low of November 15 and resistance at 0.8415, the high of November 6. Official data earlier showed that producer price inflation input rise 2.2% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a 0.6% uptick, after a 0.6% rise in the 3 months to June. Producer price inflation output rise 2.4% in the last quarter, more than the expected 1% increase, after a 1% rise in the second quarter. The greenback strengthened after Bernanke said the Fed would maintain its accommodative monetary policy for as long as needed and would taper its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program only when it was sure that improvements in the labor market would continue. Interest rates will probably remain near zero for a “considerable time” after the bank winds up asset purchase program, he added. Last week Janet Yellen, who has been nominated to succeed Ben Bernanke, reiterated the need for continued stimulus to ensure a robust economic recovery. Investors were turning their attention to the minutes of the Fed’s October meeting due later Wednesday for further indications on the future course of US monetary policy. Later in the day, the US was to release a report on retail sales and the government measure of consumer spending, as well as data on consumer inflation, existing home sales and business inventories. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The pound remained higher against the US dollar on Wednesday, still supported after the Bank of England brought forward the date it expects the unemployment rate to hit the 7% threshold at which it will consider raising rates and revised up its forecast for growth. GBP/USD hit 1.6002 amid US morning trade, the pair's highest since Monday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5981, gaining 0.48%. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5835, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.5775. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5974, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.6053. The pound remained near session highs against the dollar after the BoE’s quarterly inflation report earlier said the unemployment rate will fall faster than it expected three months ago. BoE Governor Mark Carney said there is a "two in five chance" that it could be 7% at the end of 2014. The bank reiterated that the unemployment rate falling below 7% would not automatically trigger an increase in interest rates. The BoE said it now expects economic growth of 1.6% this year, up from 1.4% in August and growth of 2.8% in 2014, up from 2.5%. The bank still expects growth of 2.3% in 2015. The bank said inflation declines back in the 4 months to October by more than expected at the time of the August report. The near-term outlook for inflation is lower than expected three months ago and inflation is likely to drop a little further during 2014, helped by the recent appreciation in sterling. Data released on Tuesday showed that the annual rate of inflation in the UK slowed to 2.2% in October, the lowest since September 2012, from 2.7% the previous month. Economists had expected the inflation rate to slow to 2.5%. Separately, the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday said that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the UK declines by 41,700 in October, better than expectations for a decline of 35,000 people. September’s figure was revised to a decline of 44,700 people from a previously reported decline of 41,700. The rate of unemployment ticked down to 7.6% in the 3 months to September the ONS said. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 7.7%. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: For the past trading session, EUR rise 0.34% against the USD and closed at 1.3518. In economic news, Markit economic reported that Euro-zone’s service sector PMI declined less-than-expected to a reading of 51.6 in October, from a level of 52.2 recorded in the previous month. Similarly, Euro-zone’s Markit composite PMI also declined to a reading of 51.9 in October, less than analysts’ estimate for a drop to 51.5 from the preceding month’s reading of 52.2. However, retail sales in the Euro-zone rose 0.3% in September, less than market expectations for a rise of 0.7% and compared to a decline of 0.2% registered in August. Meanwhile, in the US, President of the Cleveland Fed, Sandra Pianalto, suggested that the Fed needs to be cautious about continuing its asset purchases, given the limited experience it has with the programme. She added, “My hope is that the economic recovery will accelerate so that the Fed gains the reassurance it needs to begin winding the programme.” On the economic front, a report showed that, on an annual basis, employers in the US announced plans to cut 45,730 jobs in October, 13.5% up from 40,290 announced in September. Separately, the Conference Board reported that its leading indicator in the US rise 0.7% in September, more than analysts’ consensus for a rise of 0.6% and compared to a similar rate of rise witnessed in the previous month. In technical analysis, coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.3488, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.3457. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.3549, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.3579. Later today, the European Central Bank is scheduled to reveal its decision on the region’s benchmark interest rate, which is widely expected to remain unchanged at a record low 0.5%. Following the central bank’s interest rate decision, investors would keenly await ECB President, Mario Draghi’s speech on the stance of monetary policy in the region. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar decline to session lows against the Canadian dollar on Thursday after data showed that the Canadian economy expanded at a faster than expected rate in August. USD/CAD hit 1.0435 amid early US trade, the lowest since Tuesday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0440, shedding 0.36%. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.0450, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0415. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0509, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0533. Statistics Canada said gross domestic product expanded 0.3% in August, above expectations for growth of 0.2%. Canada’s economy grew by 0.6% in July. Canadian GDP grew 2% on a yearly basis, beating forecasts for an increase of 1.7%, following annualized growth of 1.5% in July. The greenback remained supported after the Federal Reserve was more optimistic than anticipated in its assessment of the economy at its monthly meeting on Wednesday, fuelling speculation that it could start scaling back stimulus sooner than expected. The Fed left its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in place and gave no clear indication whether it would start scaling back stimulus at the December meeting or continue it into the start of 2014. "The housing sector has slowed somewhat in recent months," the Fed statement said. However, Fed officials stuck to the view that the economy is expanding "at a moderate pace" and said downside risks were diminishing. Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that US initial jobless claims decline in line with expectations last week. The Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending October 25 declined by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The Australian dollar was lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, as investors locked in gains after the Aussie rallied to five-month highs against the greenback on Tuesday, on the back of disappointing US employment data. AUD/USD hit 0.9632 amid late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since October 18; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9652, dropping 0.60%. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.9642, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 0.9584. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9759, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9818. The greenback weakened broadly on Tuesday after the Department of Labor said the US economy added 148,000 jobs in September, well below expectations for an increase of 180,000. The US unemployment rate ticked down to a four-and-a-half year low of 7.2% from 7.3% in August, but this was partially due to more people dropping out of the labor force. The jobs report was released 18 days behind schedule due to disruption caused by the US government shutdown. The disappointing data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current pace of its asset purchase program well into next year. In Australia, official data showed that consumer price inflation rise by 1.2% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a 0.8% increase, after a 0.4% rise in the 3 months to June. Trimmed mean consumer price inflation, which excludes the most volatile 30% of items, rose 0.7% in the September quarter, more than the expected 0.6% uptick, after an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in the second quarter. In a separate report, the Conference Board said its leading index for Australia decline 0.2% in August, after a 0.3% rise the previous month. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar declined to 6 day lows against the Swiss franc on Thursday, as news of a last minute US budget deal to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding a sovereign default, supported market sentiment. USD/CHF hit 0.9040 amid European morning trade, the pair's lowest since October 9; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9051, tumbling 0.91%. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CHF is predicted to find support at 0.9088, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.9053. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9167, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9211. Market sentiment improved amid relief over the last minute deal to avert an unprecedented US sovereign debt default. The deal will fund the government until January 15 and raise the government borrowing limit until February 7. Both sides also agreed to talks over broad budget issues in an attempt to reach a longer-term deal by December 13. The agreement came with just hours to spare before the deadline to raise the USD16.7 trillion debt ceiling. President Barack Obama signed the bill into law early on Thursday morning and pledged to begin reopening the government "immediately." However, investors remained concerned over the economic impact of the government shutdown and the possibility of another debt crisis, as the temporary solution does not resolve the underlying budgetary issues dividing Republicans and Democrats. The Swissie was higher against the euro with EUR/CHF shedding 0.28%, to hit 1.2327. Later in the day, the US was to publish a report on initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: For the past trading session, GBP declined 1.02% against the USD and closed at 1.5955, as the latest batch of lackluster domestic economic data spurred doubts on the recovery of the UK economy. In the UK, an official report showed that industrial production in the nation declined 1.5% in August, defying market expectation for a 0.6% drop and compared to a 1.1% fall seen in the previous month. Similarly, the nation’s manufacturing production unexpectedly fell 0.2% amid August, compared to a 0.3% drop registered in the preceding month. Another report revealed that UK’s total trade balance registered a deficit of £3.320 billion in August, more than analysts’ expectation for a deficit of £2.050 billion and compared to a £3.449 billion deficit recorded in the earlier month. Negative sentiment was also fuelled after a report showed that the NIESR GDP estimate of UK rise just 0.8% during the three month ended to September, compared to a 0.9% rise reported in the preceding three months. However, a survey report from the Bank of England showed that lenders expect a modest increase in lending to businesses in the fourth quarter. The report also found that banks and building societies planned the fastest growth in credit supply to small firms since the second quarter of 2010, thus adding to the UK’s recovery from prolonged stagnation. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5873, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.5816. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.6031, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.6132. Investors await the Bank of England’s interest rate and asset purchase decision, which the market expects the central bank to keep it unchanged at 0.5% and £375 billion, respectively, at its October policy meeting. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The dollar recovered from 5 weeks lows against the yen on Friday, as investors took profits following the yen’s recent gains, but sentiment on the greenback remained fragile as ongoing concerns over political deadlock in the US weighed. USD/JPY ended Friday’s session at 97.46, up 0.21% for the day, after falling as low as 96.92 on Thursday. Still, for the week, the pair ended down 0.93%. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 96.82, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 96.39. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 97.79, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 98.32. The dollar looked likely to remain under pressure amid concerns that the first US government shutdown for 17 years would derail the fragile economic recovery and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its stimulus program for longer. The shutdown meant that Friday’s scheduled release of the US nonfarm payrolls report for September was postponed and no new date was given for the release of the data. The Bank of Japan announced no changes to monetary policy at the conclusion of its monthly meeting on Friday, in a widely expected decision. BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned that the US budget deadlock and fears over the threat of a possible US default could destabilize financial markets. Delays in US economic data releases look likely to fuel uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will hold off on any move to roll back its USD85 billion a month asset purchase program. Elsewhere, the BoJ is slated to publish monetary policy meeting minutes. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar was little changed against the Canadian dollar in early trade on Tuesday as the US government began a partial shutdown after Congress failed to reach a deal on a budget for the new fiscal year. USD/CAD hit 1.0288 amid early US trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0313, edging up 0.05%. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.0284, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0249. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0342, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0365. The data showed that Canada’s GDP registered a growth of 0.6% in July, more than analysts’ call for a 0.5% growth and compared to a 0.5% drop witnessed in the previous month. Investors remained wary amid worries that the first partial US government shutdown for 17 years would curb the economic recovery and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain its stimulus program for longer. Republicans have insisted on delaying the implementation of President Obama's health care reforms as a condition for passing the budget. Markets were also mulling over how the political deadlock in Washington will impact on negotiations to raise the US debt ceiling, which the US Treasury Department has estimated will be reached by October 17. The Institute of Supply Management was to produce a report on US manufacturing activity later in the trading day. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The euro held gains against the US dollar on Wednesday, after the release of positive US new home sales data, although ongoing uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program still weighed on market sentiment. EUR/USD hit 1.3520 amid US trade, the pair's highest since Monday; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3501, adding 0.20%. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.3445, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.3424. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.3504, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.3542. In a report, the Census Bureau said that US new home sales rise 7.9% to a seasonally adjusted 421,000 units in August, from a downwardly revised 390,000 the previous month. Analysts had expected new home sales to rise to 420,000 units last month. A separate report showed that US core durable goods orders, excluding transportation items, declined 0.1% in August, disappointing expectations for a 1% increase, after an upwardly revised 0.5% rise the previous month. Durable goods orders in the US rise 0.1% last month, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, following a downwardly revised 8.1% decline in July. The euro found support earlier; after data showed that German consumer confidence is seen rising to the highest level since June 2007 in October. The forward looking GfK index of German consumer confidence rise to 7.1, and this month’s reading was revised up from 6.9 to 7. Also Wednesday, a report compiled by the Confederation of British Industry showed that its retail sales index rise to 34.0 in September from 27.0 last month, the highest level since June 2012. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The dollar was steady against the other major currencies on Wednesday as concerns over Syria eased, while the pound rallied to 7 month highs after strong UK employment data boosted the outlook for the economic recovery. Trading trend in the Pound is expected to be determined by a report on claimant count change and unemployment rate in the UK, due to be released later today. The UK jobless rate is expected to remain at 7.8% in the 3 months to July, while the number of jobless claimants is set to decline by 22,000 over the month to August. Investors are also expected to keep a close watch on MPC Member, David Miles’ speech, expected to commence later during the day. During European morning trade, the pound strengthened against the dollar, with GBP/USD rising 0.30% to 1.5778, after rising as high as 1.5826 earlier, the highest level since February. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5691, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.5658. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5751, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5778. Demand for the traditional safe haven yen was hit after President Barack Obama agreed Tuesday to explore a plan proposed by Russia for Syria to place its chemical weapons under international control in order to avoid a US military intervention. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, dipped 0.07% to 81.76. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The Australian dollar traded lower against its US rival during Thursday’s Asian session following the release of trade balance data down under. In Asian trading Thursday, AUD/USD dropped 0.10% to 0.9166. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.9105, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.9044. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9209, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9252. In a report, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said that Australia’s trade balance declined to AUD-770 million last month from AUD240 million in July. The July reading was revised lower from AUD600 million. Analysts expected an August reading of AUD50 million. The trade balance data comes a day after official data showed that Australia's gross domestic product expanded by 0.6% in the second quarter, in line with expectations, following a downwardly revised 0.5% expansion in the 3 months to March. The greenback was supported somewhat after the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report released amid Wednesday’s US session showed a moderate and improving pace of economic growth across all 12 Fed regions. In other US economic news, the US Commerce Department reported that the US trade deficit widened more than expected in July, hitting USD39.1 billion from a downwardly revised USD34.5 billion deficit in June, mainly due to improving imports. Elsewhere, MacNeill Curry, head of foreign-exchange and interest-rates technical strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said the Aussie may rise to 94.07 US cents, according to Bloomberg. However, Currry warned that AUD/USD could drop as low as 80.66 after completing what is known as an inverse head and shoulders pattern. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The pound was little changed against the dollar on Friday as expectations that the Bank of England may raise interest rates much earlier than it has indicated supported sterling, while ongoing tensions between the US and Syria underpinned the dollar. GBP/USD declined to lows of 1.5461, the lowest since Wednesday before erasing losses to settle at 1.5503, unchanged for the day and ending the week 0.49% lower. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5480, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.5448. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5546, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5580. The pound remained supported after a speech by BoE Governor Mark Carney on Wednesday dropped short of some market expectations for an attempt to curb expectations of monetary tightening. Carney reiterated the central bank’s forward guidance pledge to leave interest rates on hold at record lows until the UK unemployment rate declines below 7%, something the bank sees as unlikely for another 3 years. Recent improved UK economic data has fuelled expectations that the bank could raise rates before then. The dollar remained supported amid concerns over prospects for a US led military intervention against Syria, following accusations the government used chemical weapons against civilians. The upbeat data reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve could start phasing out stimulus measures as soon as next month. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session modestly higher against its US counterpart, following disappointing US data on new home sales, but expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to phase out stimulus this year continued to underpin dollar demand. AUD/USD hit 0.9050 on Friday, the pair’s daily high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9026 by close of trade on Friday, up 0.21% on the day but down 1.69% for the week. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.8980, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.8938. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9055, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9088. The Aussie moved higher after the Commerce Department said US new home sales dropped by a larger-than-forecast 13.4% in July, the biggest decline in more than 3 years. Analysts had expected US new home sales to decline by 2% last month. The data came amid ongoing speculation over whether the Fed will start to scale back its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in September. Wednesday’s minutes of the Fed’s July meeting showed that officials were "broadly comfortable" with plans to reduce asset purchases, but divisions over the timing of possible tapering remain, with almost all committee members agreeing that a change in the purchase program was not yet appropriate. The minutes also described recent US economic data as “mixed “, indicating that plans to taper could be pushed back if the economy was to weaken. The Australian dollar was also pressured after the Reserve Bank of Australia said earlier in the week that further rate cuts remain possible in the future. In the minutes of its latest policy meeting, the RBA said the Aussie's directionwill be important in setting policy and signalled further interest rate cuts remain a possibility. On August 6, the RBA lowered its benchmark interest rate to a record low 2.5%. In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to revised data on US second quarter growth, as well as reports on the housing sector and consumer confidence. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The euro was higher against the softer dollar on Monday as investors looked ahead to this week’s Federal Reserve minutes amid ongoing uncertainty over when the bank will start to pull back stimulus measures. EUR/USD hit 1.3375 amid US morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.3353, gaining 0.21%. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian• Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.3298, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.3269. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.3369, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.3411. The euro hit session highs after Germany’s central bank said the European Central Bank’s forward guidance on interest rates was not an "unconditional commitment". In its monthly report, Germany’s Bundesbank said that Germany and other euro zone member states would benefit from record low interest rates set by the ECB. However, the report added that the ECB’s pledge to keep bank rates at low levels for an extended period would continue to depend on the medium term inflation outlook. The Bundesbank also said it expects German economic growth to return to "normal and steady" rates in the second half of the year, after data last week showed that the economy expanded by a larger-than-forecast 0.7% in the second quarter. Investors were looking ahead to the minutes of the Fed’s July meeting, due out on Wednesday, for further indications as to when the bank may start to phase out its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program. Expectations that the Fed may begin tapering as soon as September were boosted late last week after data showed that U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to an almost six year low. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar was higher against the Swiss franc in subdued trade on Monday, as investors eyed the release of US data later in the week amid ongoing uncertainty over the future of the Federal Reserve's stimulus program. USD/CHF hit 0.9266 during European morning trade, the pair's highest since August 6; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9271, advancing 0.52%. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, USD/CHF is predicted to find support at 0.9206, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.9172. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9259, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9278. The greenback came under pressure against the other major currencies last week after the latest US jobs report on August 2 showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected in July. The disappointing data saw investors reassess expectations for when the US central bank would start to taper its asset purchase program. Investors were looking ahead to Tuesday’s retail sales report, as well as speeches by senior Fed officials later in the week. In Switzerland, the Federal Statistics Bureau said that retail sales rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3%, from 1.5% the previous month whose figure was revised down from 1.8%. On Sunday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman, Jean-Pierre Danthine stated that SNB would enforce its cap on the Swiss Franc for as long as it is necessary. Later today, the Switzerland is slated to release its real retail sales data that is forecast to post a substantial rise in June. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar ended Friday’s session close to a 3-week high against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, after a report showed US employers added fewer jobs in July than forecast, casting doubts over the strength of the US economy and the need for stimulus. USD/CAD hit session highs of 1.0403, the strongest level since July 18, before settling at 1.0393 at the close of trade, 0.45% higher for the day and up 1.1% for the week. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.0296, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0245. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0382, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0417. The Department of Labour said the US economy added 162,000 jobs in July, less than the 184,000 increase forecast by economists. June's figure was revised down to 188,000 from a previously reported 195,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 7.4% from 7.6% in June, due in part to more people leaving the labour force. The data came amid growing uncertainty over the future of the US central bank’s stimulus program, after the Fed said on Wednesday that it would keep buying USD85 billion a month in mortgage and Treasury securities and gave no hint of plans to taper its bond-buying program. Elsewhere, in Canada, official data showed on Wednesday that the country’s economy grew at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.2% in May, in line with expectations, after growth of 0.1% the previous month. In the week ahead, the US is to publish data on service sector activity as well as a report on the trade balance to further gauge the strength of the US economy. Investors have closely been looking out for US data reports recently to gauge if they will strengthen or weaken the case for the Fed to reduce its bond purchases. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar declined near one-month lows against the yen on Monday, as demand for the greenback came under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve's 2 day policy meeting this week, during growing uncertainty over the future of the central bank's stimulus program. USD/JPY hit 97.64 during early European trade, the pair's lowest since June 25; the pair subsequently consolidated at 97.96, shedding 0.36%. COZ senior foreign exchange risk investment trader Desmond Doyle said, USD/JPY is predicted to find support at 97.36, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 96.84. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 98.68, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 99.47. Markets were jittery ahead of the Fed's upcoming policy statement, as a string of mixed US economic reports last week fuelled further uncertainty over whether the central bank will soon begin to scale back its bond-buying program. The data came a day after the Labor Department said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits the previous week increased by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 6,000 to 340,000. In Japan, government data on Monday showed that retail sales rise by an annualized rate of 1.6% in June, less than the expected 1.9% increase, after a 0.8% gain the previous month. Separately, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhido Kuroda said the stimulus measures introduced by the central bank last April are having positive effects on financial markets, the economy, and expectations for price rises. Speaking at the Research Institute of Japan, in Tokyo, Kuroda cautioned however that the BoJ is still far from achieving its 2% inflation goal. Later in the day, the US was to produce industry data on pending home sales. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar rise to one-month highs against its US counterpart in subdued trade on Monday, as the previous day's soft US housing sector data continued to weigh on the greenback. NZD/USD hit 0.8007 amid late Asian trade, the pair's highest since June 19; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.7994, gaining 0.29%. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, NZD/USD was likely to find support at 0.7909, Monday's low and resistance at 0.8054, the high of June 19. The greenback remained under pressure after data showing that US existing home sales declined unexpectedly in June dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will start scaling back its asset purchase program this year. The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales drop 1.2% to an annual rate of 5.08 million units in June, but still remained close to three-and-a-half year highs. The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD edging down 0.19%, to hit 1.1581. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The pound was lower against the dollar on Tuesday after official data showed that consumer price inflation in the UK rise slightly less-than-expected in June. GBP/USD hit 1.5046 during European afternoon trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.5084, slipping 0.10%. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, GBP/USD is predicted to find support at 1.5046, and a drop through could take it to the next support level of 1.4987. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.5147, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.5189. The pound declined to session lows against the dollar earlier after the Office for National Statistics said UK consumer price inflation rise 2.9% from a year earlier in June, coming in below expectations for a 3.0% increase and up from 2.7% in May. The ONS said the increase in annual inflation was driven by higher prices for fuel, clothing and footwear. Consumer inflation dropped 0.2% on the month, compared to expectations for a 0.1% decline. Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs rise to a seasonally adjusted 2.3% in June, in line with expectations and up from 2.2% in May. The retail price index rise 3.3% last month, slightly below expectations for a 3.4% increase. The dollar trimmed gains as investors awaited congressional testimony on monetary policy by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, during speculation over the timing of a possible reduction to the bank’s USD85 billion-a-month bond buying program. The dollar fell sharply last week after Bernanke said the U.S. economy still needed monetary stimulus. The US was also to release official data on consumer price inflation and a report on industrial production. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar was trading near one-and-a-half month highs against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as expectations for the Federal Reserve to soon scale back its stimulus program continued to support demand for the greenback. USD/CHF hit 0.9679 amid European morning trade, the pair's highest since May 29; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9667, gaining 0.33%. COZFX strategist Nigel Boynton said, USD/CHF is predicted to find support at 0.9624, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.9602. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9668, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9690. On Swiss economic front, a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate declined to 2.9% in June from a rate of 3.0% recorded in May. On a seasonally adjusted basis, unemployment rate remained stable at 3.2% in June from the previous month. Furthermore, the industrial production climbed 3.0% in the Q1 2013, more than market expectation of a rose of 1.4%. Meanwhile, official data showed that retail sales rise at an annual rate of 1.8% in May, down sharply from growth of 3.1% in April. Economists had expected Swiss retail sales to rise 1.9% in May. Demand for the US dollar remained supported after data last week showed that the US economy added 195,000 jobs in June, more than the 165,000 increase forecast by economists. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the bank could begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program by the end of 2013 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects. Finance ministers from the European Union were to hold talks in Brussels later Tuesday. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: For the past trading session, Euro declined 0.71% against the USD and closed at 1.2975. The greenback registered gains following a 2.1% surge in the US factory orders in May. However, the New York City current business conditions index deteriorated sharply in June and the economic optimism index slipped unexpectedly in July. Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President, William C. Dudley, indicated that even as the US economy’s underlying fundamentals improve, the central bank shall not begin tightening monetary policy and that the central bank is likely to prolong bond purchases if the economy turns out weaker than Fed forecasts. Meanwhile, Euro-zone’s Producer Price Index fell 0.3% in May, and the annual PPI slipped 0.1% in May. In other news, the Troika has reportedly given a three day ultimatum to Greece to show that it can fulfil the conditions in order to receive the next tranche of €8.1 billion of its rescue loans. Payroll processor ADP said the US private sector added 188,000 jobs in June, more than expectations for an increase of 160,000. Separately, the US Department of Labour said the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance last week dropped by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000, compared to expectations for a drop of 3,000 to 345,000. In technical analysis, COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, EUR/USD is predicted to find support at 1.2932, and a decline through could take it to the next support line of 1.2890. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.3047, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.3120. After the release of positive manufacturing PMI data from the European nations last Monday, investors now optimistically eye the services PMI data scheduled to release later today in the Euro-zone. Meanwhile, in the US, investors will be looking to initial jobless claims and ADP employment change data for further insight into the health of the world’s largest economy. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The US dollar ended the day higher against the Canadian dollar on Friday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon start to pull back on asset purchases lent broad support to the greenback. USD/CAD hit session highs of 1.0552, the pair’s highest since June 24, before trimming gains to close at 1.0515, 0.41% for the day and 0.34% higher for the week. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, USD/CAD is predicted to find support at 1.0432, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 1.0384. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 1.0517, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 1.0554. Data on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rise to 84.1 from a preliminary reading of 82.7 in June, nearing the almost 6 years high reached in May. The dollar was also boosted after Fed Governor Jeremy Stein indicated that the bank may begin tapering its USD85 billion-a-month asset purchase program in September. Stein said the decision to taper bond buying must be based on economic progress since the Fed implemented its easing program and should not be "excessively sensitive" to economic data releases in the weeks preceding the decision. Investors had scaled back expectations that the Fed will start tapering bond purchases this year following a downward revision to US first quarter growth on Wednesday. In Canada, official data on Friday showed that the economy grew slightly more than expected in April. Statistics Canada said gross domestic product expanded by 0.1%, following growth of 0.2% in March. Economist had expected a flat reading in May. The report said Canadian services sector output expanded 0.3% on the month but output in the goods sector fell 0.3%, as oil and gas extraction declined 2.7%. Looking ahead, Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data will be closely watched for indications of how the recovery in the US labor market is progressing. Meanwhile, Canada is to release trade and employment data. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session near the lowest level since September 2010 against its US counterpart, after the Federal Reserve said it could start scaling back its bond buying program by the end of the year. AUD/USD hit 0.9162 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since September 8, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9212 by close of trade on Friday, 3.73% lower for the week. COZforex senior currency strategist Ian • Quigley said, AUD/USD is predicted to find support at 0.9168, and a drop through could take it to the next support line of 0.9110. Meanwhile, the pair is predicted to find its first resistance at 0.9278, and a rose through could take it to the next resistance line of 0.9330. In commodities, LME Copper prices declined 2.4% or $164.50/MT to $6808.0/MT. Meanwhile, Aluminium prices dropped 2.5% or $44.0/MT to $1748.5/MT. The dollar rallied after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the bank could begin slowing its USD85 billion-a-month bond purchasing program by the end of 2013 and wind it down completely by the middle of 2014 if the economy picks up as the central bank expects. The bank said it expects the US economy to grow between 2.3% and 2.6% in 2013. The Fed also said it expects the unemployment rate to drop to between 6.5% and 6.8% by the end of 2014 and inflation to edge closer to its 2% target. Sentiment on the Aussie was further dampened after data Thursday showed that manufacturing activity hit a nine-month low in June. China’s HSBC preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index declined to 48.3 in June from 49.2 in May as new orders declined, indicating that the slowdown in manufacturing is worsening. Meanwhile, in Australia, expectations for further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia were fuelled by the minutes of the bank's latest policy meeting. The minutes of the RBA's June 4 meeting released earlier in the week showed that policymakers said the Aussie may drop further as export prices ease. They also repeated that the bank has room to cut interest rates further. (COZ forex UK)

COZforex: The New Zealand dollar rose against its US counterpart on Monday, after upbeat data from New Zealand, although investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy statement this week. NZD/USD hit 0.8099 during late Asian trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8089, gaining 0.60%. Coz forex senior derivatives trader Daniel • Moloney said, NZD/USD was likely to find support at 0.7968, the low of June 4 and resistance at 0.8137, the high of June 14. In New Zealand, the Westpac Banking Corporation said its consumer sentiment index rise to 116.6 in the second quarter, from a reading of 110.8 in the previous quarter. The greenback weakened last week amid growing expectations that the Fed will to start taper off its bond purchasing program later this year. Investors were looking ahead to the central bank’s rate statement on Wednesday amid uncertainty over the bank's next move. The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD slipping 0.11%, to hit 1.1892. Also Monday, official data showed that new motor vehicle sales in Australia were flat in May, after a 1.7% drop the previous month. (COZ forex UK)