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The old round is over and the new round has just begun! Dear traders! We are glad to announce the end of Round 6 of OctaFX Champion Demo contest! As usual we watched the battle of trading titans and the strongest competitors will share their success stories later this week. In the meantime we are happy to announce that Round 7 of OctaFX Champion Demo Contest has officially started today! From now on, over 900 strongest traders of the world will be competing for the amazing prizes of this contest, namely: 1st prize gets 500 USD 2st prize gets 300 USD 3st prize gets 100 USD The last place gets another 100 USD The results and winners will be announced after November 24, 2012 00:00 (GMT+2). Finally, let us remind you of the registration to the 8th round of OctaFX Champion Demo Contest! You can still register and take part in the next round and win amazing prizes from OctaFX! Read more about the contest and take part here! OctaFX would like to sincerely wish good luck to everyone and let the strongest win his/her prize with OctaFX!

New OctaFX office in Jakarta, Indonesia! Dear traders! OctaFX is moving on with our regional expansion. We are always near you to help you with all your needs and questions. This said, we are proud to welcome you in our new support office in Jakarta, Indonesia! Highly trained and proficient office staff is here to answer your inquiries in Bahasa Indonesia. We are also offering local deposits in Indonesian Rupiahs for all our clients from Indonesia. Please feel free to contact us at: Phone / SMS Center : 0838.0838.5555 Blackberry Center : 2874a6b8 Yahoo Messenger : [email protected] We are always glad to welcome you in our Jakarta support office!

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: Dollar Waits for Catalyst as S&P 500 Hints at Rebound THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar has pulled back as prices digest last week’s upward breakout. Traders now look to the S&P 500 for direction cues amid signs of a rebound. US DOLLAR – Prices continue to retest resistance-turned-support at the upper boundary of a falling channel set from the June 1 high (9897) having broken higher after forming a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A rebound sees initial resistance remains at 9963, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a push above that exposing the 50% Fib at 10032. Alternatively, a drop below support targets rising trend line support at 9859. Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0 Read more click here Oct 29, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

FOREX: OctaFX.Com - Dollar Ends Week Unchanged, What Will Force a EURUSD Break Out? Dollar Ends Week Unchanged, What Will Force a EURUSD Break Out? Euro Hopes Seek Spain Bailout, Fear Centered on Greece Japanese Yen: Japan’s Fiscal Cliff Could Drive USDJPY to 85, Beyond Canadian Dollar Sensitive to Jobs Data as Policy Wavers New Zealand and Australian Dollar: Rely on Risk Trend, If that Fails Intervention Oil Traders Watch Hurricane Sandy but Supplies Already Topped Off Gold Posts First Three-Week Decline in 13 Months, Next Break 1700? New to FX?Watch thisVideo; For live market updates, visitDailyFX’s Real Time News Feed Dollar Ends Week Unchanged, What Will Force a EURUSD Break Out? With the close this past Friday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) closed the week out less than a point from where it opened. In fact, this measure of the currency has progressed less than 0.1 percent through each of the past three weeks. There is no better measure of congestion and indecision. The lack of progress fits the fundamental backdrop of a market that grows increasingly concerned about the outlook for growth, yields and financial stability yet doesn’t deflate risky assets due to unrelenting hope for more stimulus. This lack of conviction has left the S&P 500 with a critical reversal of the most recent phase of its rally from June but without the commitment to build momentum on a move below 1400. Similarly, the same uncertainty has kept EURUSD anchored to congestion between 1.3100 and 1.2825. If we want to see a clear and lasting move from the dollar – we need a development that plays to its most basic role: ultimate safe haven and liquidity provider. Given the low level of participation in the capital markets (many investors have kept their money on the sidelines due to the extremely low yields and persistent of financial risks), it is rather easy to spur volatility with economic indicators. Yet, turning the tides of sentiment is an order that few of the ordinary indicators and releases can accomplish. The October NFPs due Friday are the pinnacle for scheduled economic data on the US docket; yet its already-lukewarm fundamental impact has been further diminished. We learned this past week that the Fed would not move to increase its stimulus efforts until at least the expiration of the Operation Twist program, and its ‘growth proxy’ role has been diminished by the release of 3Q GDP. That said, the typical slowdown into its release will likely reply. To break the cycle of indecision and hesitation ahead of never-ending event risk (we can wait for NFPs, then the US election, then the Fiscal Cliff, etc), we need a serious withdrawal of capital from risky exposure or mass influence of sidelined funds into the system. It would be extremely difficult to line up the necessary events to spur lasting rally (another interim stimulus, a move towards permanent fix for the Euro-zone, a turn in growth, slow recovery in benchmark rates, etc), but that doesn’t preclude another temporary rally on another short-term fix. Meanwhile, the backdrop has deteriorated enough that all it would take is the infectious belief that stimulus has reached is limits to spark fear. Euro Hopes Seek Spain Bailout, Fear Centered on Greece Europe’s two greatest threats carry opposing high-impact possibilities. While both Greece and Spain can see their situations improve or deteriorate, there is a greater influence over the euro and investor sentiment depending on which way they fall. Considering Spain is the Eurozone’s fourth largest economy, a fully engaged crisis can cause severe problems for the region’s future. However, there are still a number of interim steps that the country would have to go through before the market considered it hopeless. In fact, should Spain ask for a full rescue, it would very likely spur a substantial rally and perhaps even sentiment rally. It wouldn’t solve the underlying issues but it would delay the pain. Alternatively, Greece has passed through too many iterations of rescue for investors to be fooled by temporary measures. Furthermore, the country is struggling just to receive aid to keep running. Amid a lot of data, there is also a Troika-Greece meeting on Monday and Wednesday. Japanese Yen: Japan’s Fiscal Cliff Could Drive USDJPY to 85, Beyond The market is well aware of the fiscal shortfalls of Japan, but the country’s troubles on this front have not received as much press (from financial news and traders) as its US counterpart. This was at least partially due to the fact that there was a hard time frame to the United States’ trouble (the Fiscal Cliff that can cut $600 billion from GDP at the end of year) while the world grew accustomed to Japan’s debts. Well, that passive acceptance may come to an end as the government struggles to pass a bill necessary to keep operating. The recently announced stimulus program will tap reserve funds. But, by the end of November – with a scheduled debt sale – the country may run out of cash. Canadian Dollar Sensitive to Jobs Data as Policy Wavers Loonie skeptics have long warned that the Canadian economy is facing the same sort of troubling housing bubble and consumer debt that led so many other country’s to crisis. Yet, if it isn’t an immediately pressing problem, why not take advantage of the currency’s relative yield and stability. That ideal mix of safety and return may be coming to an end. Moody’s this past Friday placed six large Canadian banks on downgrade reviews. Next week, we have Canadian employment figures which can further weigh BoC Governor Carney’s concerns about ‘growing risks’. New Zealand and Australian Dollar: Rely on Risk Trend, If that Fails Intervention Both the Aussie and kiwi dollars have shown exceptional resilience through a questionable risk environment. Both are investment currencies for global Forex and interest rate traders; but their historically low yields are bolstered by a severe lack of alternative options with positive, real return. Central banks have recognized this and started to diversify into these funds. To offset this stubborn inflow, RBA and RBNZ central bankers are likely hoping that risk aversion drops carry to offer exchange rate relief. If that doesn’t happen, they have to cut rates / intervene. Oil Traders Watch Hurricane Sandy but Supplies Already Topped Off Risk aversion and a long building supply-demand imbalance pushed US crude to its lowest close in three months this past week. Having fallen five out of the past six weeks, a clear trend is starting to develop (though futures volume and open interest are dropping). With the speculative appeal of the commodity tarnished, the market recognizes production at 17-year highs. Not even Hurricane Sandy can change that glut. Gold Posts First Three-Week Decline in 13 Months, Next Break 1700? The bear trend that began for gold at the beginning of this month just below 1800 is proving just as consistent as the climb that preceded it. The metal is now eyeing 1700 with something that looks like hesitation. A dollar tumble and/or stimulus for Spain are among the few events that can turn this tide. Meanwhile, we are seeing the most consistent bear trend in 13-months, a drop in speculative interest and building volume. Oct 27, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - FOREX: Japanese Yen to Resume Down Trend on BOJ Stimulus, US Data The Japanese Yen marked its largest five-day drop in nine weeks against the US Dollar at the close of trade on Friday. Much of the selloff reflected speculation about an expansion of stimulus efforts from the Bank of Japan at the October 30 policy meeting, with various sources including Morgan Stanley / Mitsubishi UFJ and Nikkei News tossing around a ¥10 trillion yen estimate for the size of the increase. While Japanese authorities attempted to pour cold water on reports identifying a specific size of a stimulus, they didn’t specifically talk down the possibility of further accommodation in general. In the context of recent disappointments on the economic data front, this hints that an expansion of asset purchases may indeed be on the horizon. On the fiscal side of the equation, the government unveiled a ¥750 billion spending package meant to prevent a sharp retrenchment in public-sector spending as officials struggle to reach a deal on financing legislation that would pave the way for continued bond issuance. The government spends about ¥2.3 trillion per quarter on average however, hinting the modest size of the fiscal boost will not stave off the impact of forced austerity on economic growth for very long. That seemingly gives the BOJ further encouragement to act. Besides homegrown headwinds, the Yen continues to face downward pressure from the overall risk appetite landscape. The currency’s average value continues to show a significant inverse correlation with the S&P 500, meaning it is likely to broadly rise at times of risk aversion and fall when investor sentiment is on the upswing. That points the spotlight to the US economic calendar as another potential source of Yen volatility, with a busy docket of top-tier event risk including the ISM Manufacturing print and the all-important Employment report on tap. US economic data has increasingly topped economists’ expectations over recent weeks, feeding hopes that firming growth in the world’s top economy will help offset a slowdown in Asia and a recession in Europe. Consensus forecasts call for broad-based improvement across most of the week’s headline data releases, suggesting the path of least resistance favors a pickup in risk appetite that amplifies existing domestically-derived Yen selling pressure. Oct 27, 2012 News Updates

Our sincere congratulations on Hari Raya to all traders! Dear traders! We would like to express our sincere congratulations on Hari Raya to all OctaFX traders and partners! May peace and prosperity come into your family and home. On this great occasion allow us to thank you once again for staying with us, being our clients, your amazing support and feedback that gives us wings to evolve further. Together we are building the best company in the world along with your financial prosperity and independence. Selamat Hari Raya Aidiladha and thank you once again! Sincerely,OctaFX management and staff.

OctaFX.com-FOREX - Sentiment Buckles Under Heavy Euro After Spanish Downgrades News Summary: European Central Bank says private companies borrow less in ongoing weak economy ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP CREDIT CRUNCH: The European Central Bank said Thursday that loans to non-bank businesses in the 17-nation eurozone shrank 1.4 percent year-on-year in September, double the contraction reported the month before. FRACTURE FEARS: The numbers show the economy is struggling despite efforts by the central bank to stimulate credit and calm financial markets fearful that the eurozone might break up. NEITHER A BORROWER, NOR A LENDER: Businesses see no reason to borrow to invest in expanding production. Meanwhile, banks in some countries have less to lend AS they struggle to recover from losses on real estate loans and on government bonds. Oct 25, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.com-FOREX ANALYSIS: Dollar up on signs US economy slowly improving Dollar rises against euro, yen on signs that the US economy is slowly improving NEW YORK (AP) -- The dollar is rising against the euro on signs that the U.S. economy is slowly improving. The Labor Department says that weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell last week to 369,000. That's consistent with modest hiring. The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods rose 9.9 percent in September, mostly due to a spike in aircraft orders. And the National Association of Realtors says its index of home sale agreements rose in September. The euro fell to $1.2954 in afternoon trading from $1.2973 late Wednesday. In Britain, the government says the country has emerged from a nine-month recession. The British pound rose to $1.6118 from $1.6036 The dollar rose to 80.11 Japanese yen from 79.78 yen. Oct 25, 2012 04:48 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

FOREX ANALYSIS: Canadian Dollar Forecast to Decline USDCAD –An aggressive shift in forex retail crowd positioning warns that the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) may be staging a larger rally against the Canadian Dollar. Retail short interest in the USDCAD surged 61 percent since last week, while long positions are down a comparable 35 percent through the same period. A positive technical forecast for the USDCAD and a sharp turn in retail sentiment leave us in favor of further gains. Oct 25, 2012 03:10 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.com-OctaFX Champion Demo Contest Current update! Current update Champion Demo Contest a lot of contestants showing there keen interest in it and currently our top contestant fian182 has piled up with +3 294%. So, come and grab the opportunity and be the part of matchless traders. Contests schedule Current round (GMT+2) Registration: Sep 3, 2012 00:00 - Oct 1, 2012 00:00 Duration: Oct 1, 2012 00:00 - Oct 27, 2012 00:00 Next round (GMT+2) Registration: Oct 1, 2012 00:00 - Oct 29, 2012 00:00 Duration: Oct 29, 2012 00:00 - Nov 24, 2012 00:00 As usual, good luck everyone and let the strongest win! View round standings

FOREX - Dollar Vulnerable if Firm US Economic Data Buoys Risk Appetite The Dollar rose on haven flows in Asia but the move may be short-lived if another improvement on the US data front offers renewed support to risk appetite. Talking Points Forex Traders May Sell US Dollar if Firm Richmond Fed Print Buoys Risk Appetite Cycle-Sensitive Names in Focus on Earnings Docket as Markets Refine Growth Bets Dollar, Yen Rise on Haven Flows After Moody’s Downgrades Five Spanish Regions Another quiet day on the European economic data front keeps the focus on US event riskas traders weigh the ability of a cautious pickup in North America to offset sluggish performance in Europe and Asia. The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity gauge is in the spotlight. Expectations call for an improvement in October, hinting the positive cues seen in September’s releases are carrying forward. As we discussed in our weekly Dollar forecast, forex traders are likely to respond to US economic data in terms of its implications for market-wide sentiment trends. With that in mind, a firmer Richmond Fed print may boost risk appetite, weighing on greenback against most of its top counterparts (with the notable exception of the Yen) as haven-seeking capital flows dry up. Needless to say, a disappointing outcome is likely to produce the opposite dynamic. Turning to the corporate earnings docket, cycle-sensitive names with a global footprint including United Parcel Service, EI du Pont de Nemours and Ryder System are in focus as markets continue to fine-tune their global growth outlook. Guidance from these companies is likewise likely to be interpreted in terms of their implications for the global recovery as investors fine-tune broad-based growth expectations. S&P 500 index futures are pointing lower in late Asian trade, hinting at a lean toward risk aversion heading into the European session. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose against the majors in overnight trade as Asian stocks declined, boosting safe-haven demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.4 percent. The rout followed a Moody’s ratings downgrade of five Spanish regions. The Yen outperformed, adding as much as 0.3 percent on average, as prices digested the previous day’s aggressive sell off. The Japanese unit slumped 0.9 percent in the 24 hours through the closing bell on Wall Street, marking the sharpest one-day decline in seven weeks. see more click here Oct 23, 2012 06:25 AM OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com -Euro Rises Following ECB Bulletin Remarks on OMT Bond Purchases THE TAKEAWAY: Euro-zone growth is expected to remain weak according to ECB bulletin -> OMT comments reflect Draghi -> Euro trading slightly higher The European Central Bank said growth in the Euro-area is expected to remain weak, as tensions in certain markets keeps confidence and sentiment down, according to the monthly bulletin from their October meeting. The ECB continued to say that economic indicators confirm the continuation of a weak economy in the third quarter. The ECB quoted rising energy prices,increases in indirect taxes, and the resulting higher inflation as the reason that the central bank kept rates unchanged in their October meeting. The ECB predicted that inflation will remain above 2% for the rest of 2012, but will drop below 2% in 2013. The ECB said the decision regarding the OMT has helped relieve certain tensions, but the governments must continue to implement necessary steps. The bulletin stressed the importance of the conditionality of OMT purchases, thereby reflecting Draghi’s statements at the European parliament. Finally, the ECB supported efforts to implement a single supervisory mechanism for Euro-area banks. The ECB has already begun preparatory work so as to be ready to implement the joint banking supervision. The Euro rose slightly following the release of the bulleting, possibly on optimism over the implementation of the OMT program. Euro investors may be hoping to see Spain agree to the ECB’s conditions for bond purchases, which could be a step in the direction of a recovery from the debt crisis. EURUSD is currently trading closer to the key 1.2900 line, where resistance could be found by the 23.6% retracement of the rally that began at the end of July. Support could be provided by the month-long low at 1.2803. EURUSD 15-minute: October 11, 2012 Oct 11, 2012 08:48 AM News Updates

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OctaFX.Com -EU summit to back idea of separate euro zone budget-draft conclusions BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The euro zone should have its own budget, which would be separate from the long-term budget of the wider European Union, draft conclusions of an EU summit to take place next week said. "For the euro area, the objective is to move towards an integrated budgetary framework," said the draft conclusions, obtained by Reuters. "In that context, mechanisms to prevent unsustainable budgetary developments, as well as mechanisms for fiscal solidarity, e.g. via an appropriate fiscal capacity, should be explored," the draft said. "Such mechanisms would be specific to the euro area and therefore not be covered by the Multiannual Financial Framework," the draft said. The Multiannual Financial Framework is the European Union's long-term budget which amounts to around 1 percent of the gross domestic product of the 27-nation bloc. It is used to support the EU's agriculture policy as well as investment in the EU's poorer countries and regions, among others. The idea of a separate euro zone budget is supported by Germany, but many non-euro zone countries, which now benefit from the funds of the EU-wide budget, are concerned that its creation would diminish the amount of money available to them. The conclusions also showed that EU leaders would support the idea of euro zone countries entering into contractual agreements with EU institutions to implement reforms. "The smooth functioning of EMU (the euro zone) for stronger and sustainable economic growth, employment and social cohesion requires stronger coordination, convergence and enforcement of economic policy," the draft conclusions said. "In this respect, the idea for the euro area Member States to enter into individual arrangements of a contractual nature at the European level on the reforms they commit to undertake and on their implementation should be explored," they said. Oct 9, 2012 04:24 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Strong September NIESR GDP Estimate Fails to Impress British Pound UPDATE: GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (MoM) (SEP) > +0.8% from +0.1% prior (revised from +0.2%) > GBPUSD NEUTRAL One European economy is growing at an increasing rate: the United Kingdom. At least, that’s what the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s September growth estimate showed today, which ticked up to +0.8% quarter-over-quarter from +0.1% q/q in August (quarterly here denotes trailing three-months ending in reporting month; this report estimated growth for July-August-September). For context, this is the single highest NIESR GDP estimate seen since July 2010 (+1.2% q/q). For a calendar quarter, this is the highest reading since the third quarter of 2007. However, while the headline reading looks great, it is important to consider some one-off occurrences that took place in the middle of the year: the Queen’s Jubilee celebration as well as the London Olympics. These events undoubtedly provided a boost to growth: Bloomberg News suggests that a better guess for growth would be +0.2% or +0.3% q/q. GBPUSD 1-minute Chart: October 9, 2012 Accordingly, reaction to the release can be described as tepid at best, with the GBPUSD inching high for a few pips before falling back. The GBPUSD traded at 1.6010 before the release, and was at 1.6014 at the time this report was written. Oct 9, 2012 02:32 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Eleven euro states back financial transaction tax LUXEMBOURG/ATHENS (Reuters) - Eleven euro zone countries agreed on Tuesday to press ahead with a disputed tax on financial transactions designed to help pay for the cost of fixing a crisis that has rocked the single currency area. The initiative, pushed hard by Germany and France but strongly opposed by Britain, Sweden and other free-marketers, gained critical mass at a European Union finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg, when more than the required nine states agreed to use a treaty provision to launch the tax. The so-called "Tobin tax", first proposed by Nobel-prize winning U.S. economist James Tobin in the 1972 as a way of reducing financial market volatility, has become a political symbol of a widespread desire to make banks, hedge funds and high-frequency traders pay a price for the crisis. "This is a small step for 11 countries but a giant leap for Europe," Austria Deputy Finance Minister Andreas Schieder said. "The way is now clear for a just contribution from the banking and financial sector for financing the burdens of the crisis." The agreement raised the prospect of a pioneer group of European states for the first time launching a joint tax without the unanimous backing of the 27-nation bloc, a move that may fragment the single market for financial services. EU Tax Commissioner Algirdas Semeta told the meeting the number of states backing the initiative had passed the quorum for so-called "enhanced cooperation", provided some countries turn their oral backing into written commitment. "I proposed this tax as a source of new revenue from an under-taxed sector, and a means of encouraging more responsible trading," Semeta said. "It would also prevent a patchwork of national bank taxes from creating difficulties for businesses in the Single Market." However, critics say it could distort that market by giving banks and other traders incentives to shift their trading activities to European financial centers where the tax is not levied, or away from Europe altogether. "People will arbitrage it. People will find a way around it," said David Stewart, CEO of London-based hedge fund firm Odey Asset Management, which runs around $6.5 billion. "If someone really wants to buy a company that's good, I'm sure they'll keep on buying it. But if it's a synthetic derivative then they may go somewhere else ... More volume will go through London." Britain, home to the region's biggest trading centre, will not join the scheme. Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said the 11 countries would present a model for how the tax would work by the end of the year, and it was realistic to expect the tax to be implemented by 2014. Semeta said the countries aiming to launch the tax did not yet agree on where the proceeds should go or on what they should be spent. "Some of them would like to spend it individually. Some of them prefer to use part of the proceeds to finance the EU budget. It is premature to say what will be the final outcome," he said. The breakthrough was a surprise to many EU diplomats who had thought Germany might fail to convince sufficient countries to join the plan, which has been in the works for two years. After heavy diplomatic pressure from Berlin overnight, Spain and Italy agreed to support the measure. Slovakia and Estonia said they would throw their weight behind it too. The European Commission has said a tax on stocks, bonds and derivatives trades from 2014 could raise up to 57 billion euros a year if applied across all countries. SCANT PROGRESS ELSEWHERE The agreement was a victory for German Chancellor Angela Merkel on the day she travelled to Athens, epicenter of Europe's debt crisis, to express her support for near-bankrupt Greece staying in the euro zone. Greek police fired teargas and stun grenades to hold back protesters who accuse Merkel of imposing devastating austerity on their country in exchange for two EU/IMF bailouts that have so far failed to turn the shattered economy around. "A lot has been accomplished," Merkel said after talks with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, adding that the tough path Greece is on will pay off if Greeks stay the course. The financial tax deal masked a distinct lack of progress among finance ministers on other pressing issues facing the euro zone, including whether and when to provide a rescue package for Spain, and what to do about Greece's off-course program. The 17 euro zone ministers finally inaugurated their 500 billion euro permanent rescue fund on Monday, but danced around the question of how soon it might have to be used. Ministers insisted Spain was taking the right actions to restore its public finances and did not need a bailout for now, even though many in the financial markets are convinced Madrid will need help within weeks rather than months. The International Monetary Fund doused several euro zone countries' budget plans, including those of Spain and France, by revising down its 2013 growth forecasts for their economies. Euro zone peers told Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos that his country's budget cuts should take into account the weakness in the economy as regional policymakers debated whether to let Madrid slacken the pace of its austerity drive. "The only thing I can say (about the IMF's forecasts for Spain) is to try to avoid that they happen," de Guindos said. "Logically, we are working on the basis that such negative forecasts are not met," he said. The ministers also had a "robust" discussion with the IMF about the long-term sustainability of Greece's debt mountain -- a key factor in whether international lenders release an urgently needed next tranche of aid to Athens. An IMF director told a Dutch newspaper that European countries should consider restructuring the Greek debt they hold if the country's financial burden proves unsustainable. Diplomats say euro zone governments would prefer to find ways to give Athens more time to meet its fiscal targets and postpone any consideration of official debt restructuring until after next September's German general election. European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi told the European Parliament the euro zone economy faced a long, uphill road to recovery and the bloc was still suffering a crisis of confidence. But he said there was no alternative to continued budget cuts. Oct 9, 2012 02:22 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - German regulator: "no euro zone bank watchdog until 2014" FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Plans to establish a euro zone bank regulator by January 1, 2013, may be delayed by a year, Germany's markets regulator said on Tuesday, a potential setback to efforts to help distressed euro zone countries and their banks. European leaders agreed at the end of June to set up a single supervisor to oversee 6,000 banks in Europe, but Elke Koenig, head of Germany's markets regulator BaFin, said the original deadline to start such supervision was unrealistic. "I could imagine that we get there in January 2014. That's a guess," she told German television station ARD on Tuesday, adding this was her personal view. Koenig argued that efforts to centralize supervision should proceed with caution, a view at odds with several euro zone policymakers, but in line with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who last month objected to giving the ECB sweeping powers. The speedy establishment of common banking supervision is necessary to pave the way for the direct recapitalization of lenders via the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a euro zone bailout fund which came into force on Monday. Propping up weak banks is seen as a way to break the vicious circle linking indebted governments and their troubled lenders. Doubts over the solidity of Spain's finances, for example, are inextricably linked to its weak banking sector. The Dutch Central Bank said on Tuesday that policymakers should quickly give the European Central Bank the tools to supervise major lenders and to enable the ESM to directly recapitalize troubled banks if shareholders or national governments proved unable. Germany, the euro zone's economic heavyweight, has criticized efforts to allow the ECB to supervise all euro zone lenders, claiming the ECB will be overstretched. In reality, the ECB will not be in day-to-day charge of supervision, which will still lie with national and local regulators. But the ECB is expected to leave national supervisors with less wiggle room to adopt special rules designed to protect their home market. Germany's landesbanken, for example, are currently allowed to keep using a special form of non-voting capital as a way to meet tougher rules on capital safeguards. The ECB's president Mario Draghi commented on the timetable for creating a new supervisor on Tuesday. "The ECB is not supposed to take over supervision in three months' time and do it. There is a phase-in time. We foresee that one year will be needed to adapt all the structures," Draghi told the European parliament. As a first step, the ECB is set to take responsibility for supervising banks which have received state aid beginning 2013. From mid-2013 the ECB will add systemically relevant institutions, before finally overseeing all euro zone banks by 2014. Upon being asked whether a January deadline for Euro zone bank supervision was realistic, The Bank of France, the Bank of Spain and the Bank of Italy declined to comment. Gerard Rameix, head of the French markets watchdog AMF, said he had heard nothing to suggest there would be a change to the timeframe. "I think they are playing on words a bit. If they are talking about the utmost end of the process, then they are maybe not wrong," Rameix said. Late on Monday Koenig said that although she supported the idea of common supervision in principle, she hasn't understood how the transition from national to pan-European supervision will work in practice. "I support the idea of a strong European regulator. But I have not seen a roadmap of how we get there," she said. "The last thing we can afford is to have an interregnum between those who are no longer responsible (for supervision) and those who are not yet in a position to act," Koenig said. Earlier this month ECB policymaker Joerg Asmussen warned that tapping the ESM for direct bank recapitalization will only be possible once supervision has been set up. And last month, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland insisted that the ESM should not be used to solve "legacy issues", essentially saying that highly indebted banks in Spain, Ireland and Greece will remain the responsibility of those countries' governments. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision said last week the EU was failing to apply the Basel III capital requirement rules for banks because it softened up a definition of what qualifies as core capital. Basel III says it must be common equity capital while Germany has pushed hard to include what some regulators see as less proven financial instruments which are widely used in the German public sector banking arm of Landesbanks. Oct 9, 2012 12:54 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com - Spain doesn't need help, euro zone ministers say LUXEMBOURG (Reuters) - Euro zone finance ministers delivered a united defense of Spain on Monday, saying the country was taking steps to overhaul its economy, funding itself successfully in the financial markets and did not need a bailout, at least for now. Arriving at a meeting in Luxembourg to discuss Greece and Spain and to inaugurate the euro zone's permanent bailout mechanism, the ESM, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Madrid had made clear it wanted no help. "Spain needs no aid program. Spain is doing everything necessary, in fiscal policy, in structural reforms," he told reporters as he arrived for a gathering that will also discuss plans to establish a single supervisor for euro zone banks. "Spain has a problem with its banks as a consequence of the real estate bubble of the past years," he said. "That's why Spain is getting (EU) help with banking recapitalization." Luxembourg Finance Minister Luc Frieden took the same line but added that if Spain were to make a request for aid beyond the 100 billion euros already earmarked to recapitalize its banks, it would be examined. "I think we should deal with such a request when it comes, but so far the Spanish government is undertaking reforms which go in the right direction," he said. Finance ministers agreed in June to provide up to 100 billion euros for Spain's banks, many of which are weighed down with bad property loans and need to be recapitalized. An independent audit has shown the banks need around 40 billion euros, less than originally expected, a result Austria's finance minister, Maria Fekter, said was positive. "We have the banking application from Spain," Fekter said. "We are likely to hear today that this 100 billion euros is not all needed, that Spain needs significantly less." Many in the financial markets are convinced Spain will not be able to meet its sovereign funding needs at an affordable cost without euro zone and European Central Bank support, especially with several of its regions requiring a bailout from Madrid. A euro zone source said ministers may also discuss Spain's 2013 budget, outlined last month, which the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission both believe is based on an over-optimistic forecast of a 0.5 percent economic contraction next year. The IMF forecast of a 1.2 percent recession may be revised further downwards on Tuesday. NO MOVES ON GREECE As well as Spain, ministers will discuss the situation in Greece, where intense negotiations continue between the government and the 'troika' of inspectors from the Commission, the ECB and the IMF over budget cuts for 2013-2014. But Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the Eurogroup, said no developments on Greece, which has fallen behind on its second bailout program, were likely at least until the troika finishes a report on the country's debt situation. That report is now expected in early November. "I don't think that we will have any major decisions on Greece," Juncker said. Asked whether a decision on Greece could be expected soon, he replied: "Hope never dies." Monday's meeting will also discuss plans for the ECB to be given responsibility for supervising all eurozone banks and the idea of creating a single budget for eurozone countries, issues that will be discussed further by eurozone and EU leaders at a summit in Brussels on October 18-19. But little formal progress is expected, with questions unresolved about how many of the eurozone's 6,000 banks the ECB will be charged with overseeing and whether it will be able to start its new role from January next year. Instead, the only firm action taken on Monday was the unveiling of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), a 500 billion euro, rescue mechanism for the 17 euro zone countries. The ESM, which replaces the temporary EFSF, will be used to lend to distressed euro zone sovereigns in return for strict fiscal and structural reforms that aim to put economies that have lost investor trust back on track. "The start of the ESM marks a historic milestone in shaping the future of the European monetary union," the fund's chief executive, Klaus Regling, told reporters "The euro area now is equipped with a permanent and effective firewall, which of course is a crucial component in our strategy to ensure financial stability in the euro zone." The fund's lending capacity will be based on 80 billion euros of paid-in capital and 620 billion of callable capital, against which the ESM will borrow money on the market to lend it on to governments cut off from sustainable market funding. From Monday it has a capacity of 200 billion euros and it will reach its full capacity gradually by 2014. Oct 8, 2012 01:30 PM OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - Dollar, Yen Aim Higher as All Eyes Turn to Eurozone FinMin Summit The safe-haven US Dollar and Japanese Yen rose overnight amid risk aversion before a Eurozone finance ministers’ summit. More of the same appears likely ahead. Talking Points US Dollar, Japanese Yen Rise as Risk Aversion Grips Asian Stock Markets Canadian Dollar Well-Supported in the Wake of US Employment Report Eurozone FinMin Summit in Focus for Greece Funding, Spain Bailout Cues IMF Likely to Downgrade Global Economic Outlook in Updated Data Set Germany’s Trade Surplus Set to Narrow, Industrial Production to Decline The US Dollar and Japanese Yen advanced against most of their major counterparts as Asian stocks declined, boosting demand for the go-to haven currencies. Regional bourses (excluding Japan, where markets are closed for a holiday) slumped 0.9 percent on average. The Canadian Dollar was likewise well-supported in the wake of Friday’s better-than-expected US jobs report as traders wagered that a firming recovery in the world’s top economy will boost cross-border demand for its northern neighbor. From here, all eyes turn to the Luxembourg, where Eurozone finance ministers are due to begin a two-day meeting to discuss debt management efforts. Traders will be interested in any moves to mend disagreements between the Greek government and troika monitors that open the door for disbursement of the latest batch of bailout funding. Any clues about the timing of a Spanish request for a full-on rescue package are also sought, particularly after borrowing costs rose at a bond auction last week. Against this backdrop, the IMF is due to release an updated set of global economic performance expectations, with downgrades widely expected. This suggests that absent concrete positive cues from Luxembourg, the risk-off mood is likely to carry forward. On the data front, Germany’s Trade Balance surplus is expected to narrow to €15.2 billion – the lowest in four months – while Industrial Production is forecast to have fallen 0.6% percent in August. Oct 8, 2012 05:40 AM OctaFX.Com News Updates

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