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OctaFX.Com - Forex: Euro Relief Rally At Risk, Sterling Looks Higher On BoE Policy Talking Points Euro: EU Fails To Deliver Greek Deal, IMF Says More Needs To Be Done British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1 on QE, Curbs Bets For Lower Borrowing Costs U.S. Dollar: Continues To Gain Ground Ahead Of Thanksgiving Holiday Euro: EU Fails To Deliver Greek Deal, IMF Says More Needs To Be Done The Euro pared the overnight decline to 1.2735 as European policy makers floated different options to save Greece, but the reactionary approach held by the EU continues to encourage a bearish outlook for the EURUSD as the debt crisis dampens the fundamental outlook for the region. Indeed, the EU unveiled a EUR 10B bond-buyback plan for Greece, which would be financed through the European Financial Stability Facility, while the group is also looking to suspend Greece’s interest payment on the bailout program through 2020 in an effort to keep the periphery country within the monetary union. As the EU prepares a bundled aid package to avert a Greek default, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde argued that ‘a bit more’ needs to be done to find a credible solution for Greece, and the ongoing rift within the troika – the EU, ECB, and IMF – may produce further weakness in the EURUSD as European policy makers struggle to restore investor confidence. As European policy makers increase their pledge to avoid a credit event in Greece, headlines coming out of the region may keep the single currency afloat over the coming days, but we may see the EURUSD struggle to hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50 as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak. As the short-term rebound in the EURUSD fails to keep the exchange rate above the 20-Day SMA (1.2820), the pair may consolidate going into the holiday trade, and we will maintain our bearish forecast for the euro-dollar as the weakening outlook for the region is expected to put additional pressure on the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy further. British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1 on QE, Curbs Bets For Lower Borrowing Costs The British Pound climbed to a fresh weekly high of 1.5948 as the Bank of England (BoE) Minutes sapped bets for additional monetary support, and the rebound from 1.5822 may continue to gather pace over the near to medium-term as the central bank appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle. Although the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep its asset purchase program at GBP 375B, the board argued against a further reduction in the benchmark interest rate, while a growing number of central bank officials turned their attention to the stickiness in price growth as the central bank warned that ‘above-target inflation in the near term increased the chance that any pick-up in productivity would result in higher wage demands.’ As the BoE strikes a more neutral tone for monetary policy, we’re seeing the relatives strength index on the GBPUSD breakout of the downward trend carried over from September, and the technical development encourages a bullish outlook for the GBPUSD as the pair appears to be carving out a higher low in November. U.S. Dollar: Continues To Gain Ground Ahead Of Thanksgiving Holiday The greenback continued to gain ground on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to a high of 10,059, and the reserve currency may track higher ahead of the holiday trade as the developments coming out of the EU meeting fails to generate an improved landscape for risk-taking behavior. As U.S. traders go offline ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the drop in market participation may produce choppy price action over the next 24-hours of trading, but the bullish sentiment surrounding the reserve currency looks poised to gather pace over the remainder of the year as the Federal Reserve adopts an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy. Nov 21, 2012 News Updates

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OctaFX.com-OctaFX Champion Demo Contest Current update! Current update Champion Demo Contest a lot of contestants showing there keen interest in it and currently our top contestant januarta has piled up with $53 497.55. So,come and grab the opportunity and be the part of matchless traders. Contests schedule Current round (GMT+2) Registration: Oct 1, 2012 00:00 - Oct 29, 2012 00:00 Duration: Oct 29, 2012 00:00 - Nov 24, 2012 00:00 Next round (GMT+2) Registration: Oct 29, 2012 00:00 - Nov 26, 2012 00:00 Duration: Nov 26, 2012 00:00 - Dec 22, 2012 00:00 As usual, good luck everyone and let the strongest win! View round standings

OctaFX.Com -FOREX Technical Analysis: British Pound Slips in Early Week Trading FOREX Trading and Technical Analysis Observations EUR/USD-As focused in FX Technical Weekly, the EUR/USD decline from Thursday’s high (12801) is impulsive which suggests that the larger downtrend has resumed. I am short as of this morning with a 12805 stop. Exceeding 12801 would shift focus to former supports at 12824 and 12882. AUD/USD-is nearing resistance from the 61.8% retracement of the decline from 10480 at 10406. I’m on the lookout for a top and reversal but understand that RBA minutes are due tonight. Exceeding 10480 would shift focus to 10550 (again). USD/JPY-is showing signs (JS Spike bars on multiple time frames) of topping. The rally from 9/13 may be complete in 5 waves. Wave 5, from the 11/9 low, is also in 5 waves. Considering the 61.8% retracement of the decline from March at 8148, risk is to the downside. AUD/JPY-is approaching a potentially HUGE pivot near 8500. EUR/USD – 60 Minute Bars READ MORE Nov 19, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com -Forex Analysis: US Dollar Classic Technical Report 11.19.2012 Prices edged through resistance at 10038, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with buyers now aiming to challenge the 76.4% level at 10109. The first layer of significant support lines up at 10020, the top of a formerly broken rising channel set from mid-September, with a drop below that targeting the 50% retracement at 9982. Nov 19, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX- IB Conditions We at OctaFX value our IBs and build our cooperation on honest and transparent basis. Here is a brief overview of the IB conditions. Please make sure to read and understand the IB Agreement prior to becoming an OctaFX IB. How to become an IB? Open a partner account at OctaFX Receive your referral link in the "IB Area" section of your Personal Area at OctaFX That's it, you are now an IB for OctaFX What is my IB commission? The commission is: For Micro accounts: 30% of spread For ECN accounts: 25% of spread How is the commission calculated? Here is an example for you: Commission = order volume * pip price * spread * per cent rate (30% or 25% depending on the account type). Let's say your client has a micro account and has just closed a 3 lot EUR/USD order. Order volume 3 lots Currency pair EUR/USD Account type Micro Spread 1 pip Pip price 10 USD Commission 3*10*1*30% = 9 USD You can view all the minimal and typical spreads for Micro and ECN accounts in "Spreads and trading conditions" section. What you SHOULD do? There is a number of gold old ways to attract clients and make them open accounts via your referral link. Here are some of them: post your referral link in forums, social networks and blogs. Be an active participant in forum discussions, our groups in Facebook and Twitter, talk to people, answer their questions. Alternatively you can create your own website and promote your referral link in your own language in your country. What you CAN'T do? You can't use any kind of illegal advertizing, spam, spamdexing, use adult or illegal websites, deceive or mislead people in any way or do anything which may harm the company's good name and reputation. What else should I know? Please be aware that the only and the final legal document that regulates the relationship between the broker and the IB is the IB Agreement. It sets forth the rules for IBs, explains IB commission and payouts, stages of IB program and other aspects of Introducing Broker activity. Please make sure to read and understand the IB Agreement prior to opening an IB account at OctaFX.

OctaFX.Com -Happy Weekend from OctaFx team

OctaFX.Com - Forex: Euro Concerns Persist, Japanese Yen Rebounds Despite Warning ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP As the week winds down, it’s worth recapping to note that November has been decisively negative, with high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets, such as the Australian Dollar, Euro and S&P 500, losing ground in favor of safe havens such as US Treasuries and the US Dollar. In fact, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is now at its highest level since August 21. Leading the pack on a negative day has been the Japanese Yen, which is of little surprise when considered in recent historical context, but following yesterday’s developments, the Yen’s rebound is a bit more curious. Yesterday, Shinzo Abe, the opposition leader who is ahead in polls and likely to win the Japanese snap election in mid-December, said that he would pressure the Bank of Japan to embark on an unlimited easing policy. While I recognize that the market might be a little thin right now with respect to the Yen, i.e. there aren’t enough interested buyers at the current USDJPY level, it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the Japanese Yen gains ground with Mr. Abe lurking, unless there are concerns circling around the US fiscal cliff. Speaking of which, there is news about the US fiscal cliff: President Barack Obama is meeting with Congressional leaders today to discuss ways to eliminate the sequester, by a few months or indefinitely with a formidable long-term plan. However, based on price action today in the USDJPY and Gold, it appears that while fiscal cliff (I prefer slope, actually – it’s not like all of that economic activity will be lost on January 1; instead, the damages will come over the course of the quarter) concerns are prevalent, there are also European concerns in the picture. Taking a look at credit, peripheral bond yields are barely moved, having little impact on the Euros. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.231% (-0.8-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 3.193 % (+0.2-bps). Similarly, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.872% (-0.8-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 5.859% (-0.9-bps); lower yields imply higher prices. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 11:47 GMT JPY: +0.01% CAD:-0.10% GBP:-0.10% AUD:-0.18% NZD: -0.20% EUR:-0.38% CHF: -0.40% Nov 13, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - Forex Analysis: NZD/USD Classic Technical Report 11.16.2012 ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP Prices are testing support in the 0.8064-0.8101 area, with a break lower exposing the 0.80 figure and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7962. Near-term resistance is at 0.8222, the underside of a previously broken rising channel set from late May, with a push above that targeting the 0.83 mark. Nov 13, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.Com - Euro rises but vulnerable to Greece uncertainty Prices took out resistance at the top of a rising channel established from mid-September, exposing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 10038. A push above that targets the 76.4% retracement at 10109. The channel top – now at 10021 – has been recast as support, with a push back below that aiming for the 50% level at 9982. Nov 16, 2012

Since thousands of clients are applying for Octa-welcome Bonus these days, OctaFX is glad to announce we made the bonus rules easier, safer and convenient for our clients. Enjoy the freedom of trade! Now bonus is credited to a special bonus account with even better trading conditions! Now you can enjoy 1:500 leverage with Welcome account, 0.01 lots (microlots) and unique OctaFX lowest spreads in the market! Promotion rules No agent commission is credited for trading on bonus accounts. It is necessary to verify your account to receive a bonus. A special welcome account is opened for bonus trading. Bonus can not be added to another account type (Micro, ECN or IB). Welcome account conditions are equal to Micro Swap Free account conditions. You can not deposit a welcome account. It is required to trade 8 standard lots to make the bonus withdrawable. It is required to finish 2 standard lots to withdraw profit for welcome account. We will return 16 USD after 8 standard lots are finished in a bonus account. So your 8 USD bonus will become withdrawable and we will grant you 8 USD more. So-called "reverse trading" on bonus accounts is strictly prohibited. "Reverse trading" denotes opening the same position in reverse destinations on 2 or more bonus accounts. E.g. open 0.01 lot BUY on EURUSD in one account and 0.01 lot SELL on EURUSD in another at the same time. The Client acknowledges that such accounts will be blocked, bonuses and profits will be canceled. Maximal leverage for non-deposit bonus accounts is 1:500. Minimal and maximal volume for welcome account is 0.01 lot. Maximal number of simultaneously open positions is 3. Opening multiple bonus accounts (including those registered for relatives. etc) is prohibited. In case of IP address or personal data partial or complete match, or other signs of accounts belonging to the same person, such accounts will be blocked, bonuses and profits will be canceled. The bonus may be cancelled anytime. In this case 8 USD will be charged from your account. Bonus can't be canceled. ANY IP match between 2 accounts regardless of trading style, name, email, country, etc will be considered as multiple bonus account. Such accounts will be blocked, all withdrawals will be rejected. Each client can have only one bonus account. OctaFX may reject s client's bonus application(s) at anytime without prior notification or providing reasons for such decision. OctaFX reserves a right to change, update or cancel this promotion with notification in the Company news. Certain countries may be restricted from getting a bonus Open account today and enter the world of requote-free trading and the fastest execution! Join OctaFX today!

OctaFX.com- FOREX ANALYSIS: British Pound May Fall Furthe GBPUSD – Retail forex traders continue buying aggressively into British Pound weakness versus the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR), and a contrarian view of crowd sentiment leaves us in favor of further GBPUSD losses. Our proprietary Speculative Sentiment Index data shows that there was an increase of 57 percent of traders who had turned long the British Pound against the US Dollar, while short interest has fallen 16 percent. The combination was enough to leave retail sentiment at its most bullish GBPUSD since August. Our British Pound price targets to the downside are near, but we remain bearish the GBPUSD until we see a shift in retail trader sentiment. Nov 15, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.com-OctaFX Champion Demo Contest Current update! Current update Champion Demo Contest a lot of contestants showing there keen interest in it and currently our top contestant januarta has piled up with +4 291%. So, come and grab the opportunity and be the part of matchless traders. Contests schedule Current round (GMT+2) Registration: Oct 1, 2012 00:00 - Oct 29, 2012 00:00 Duration: Oct 29, 2012 00:00 - Nov 24, 2012 00:00 Next round (GMT+2) Registration: Oct 29, 2012 00:00 - Nov 26, 2012 00:00 Duration: Nov 26, 2012 00:00 - Dec 22, 2012 00:00 As usual, good luck everyone and let the strongest win! View round standings

OctaFX.com- Dollar soars to 6-month high versus Japanese yen FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar soared to its highest level versus the Japanese yen in more than six months Thursday, rising as the leader of Japan's main opposition party continued to push for a further loosening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The dollar soared as high as 81.25 yen and changed hands in recent action at 81.15 yen, up from 80.20 yen in North American trade late Wednesday. The yen last traded above 81 yen in late April. News reports said Shinzo Abe, leader of the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party, urged the Bank of Japan to push official interest rates below zero. Abe is seen as likely to become Japan's next prime minister in elections expected next month. Nov 15, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFX.com- Forex: Dollar So Close to a Bullish Surge, What Does it Take? Dollar So Close to a Bullish Surge, What Does it Take? Euro Finds Little Bounce From Greece Hole Plug, Spain Rescue Rumors British Pound Rallies Briefly After CPI Data, Right Back Towards 1.5850 Japanese Yen: Risk Aversion May have Wavered but the Yen Hasn’t Swiss Franc at Two Month High Versus Euro, 1.2000 in Sight Australian Dollar Losing Steam on Rate Outlook, Bullishness Deflating Gold Makes a Bearish Turn but Commitment Lacking Without Dollar New to FX? Watch thisVideo; For live market updates, visitDailyFX’s Real Time News Feed Dollar So Close to a Bullish Surge, What Does it Take? The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) has held just below critical resistance and fresh two month lows since risk-trends were rejected despite the otherwise ‘better-than-expected’ October payrolls. Taking a look at the chart of the Dollar Index, we find the big-ticket 10,000 figure is complimented by the 100 and 200-day moving averages – considerable weight to any technical trader. However, the most remarkable technical read on the greenback is also a very telling fundamental consideration: the average true range (ATR). Measuring the average of the currency’s daily range (on a rolling 10-day basis), we find that the dollar has carved out the smallest rate of activity since high and low data have been recorded – so since at least January 2011. Altogether, that tells us a significant swell of volatility is soon at hand. These measures of activity on the technical level are mirrored with what we have seen fundamentally. As the US benchmark equities have led a questionable march higher for riskier assets over the past months and years, we have also seen the FX Volatility Index slide to lows not seen since before the financial crisis in 2008 (the index is currently at 7.41 percent). The standard volatility indicators are both measures of insurance costs against adverse price movements and more elementally ‘fear’ gauges. Therefore, when these measures of risk rise, it is generally in response to a more active move towards risk aversion. That is a strong factor for the greenback – if and when it happens. Yet, we have seen the volatility measures continuously trend lower against a trend of more obvious troubles in growth trends, financial crises and fiscal imbalances. Though it doesn’t necessarily have to jump start a watershed event in speculative positioning, a sudden return of volatility through the immediate future is a particularly credible threat. That being said, this may be a pickup in activity that defies the common convention that a big swing in price action necessarily translates into risk aversion (a disconnect that would most likely bypass the traditional volatility readings). Markets are currently positions such that they reflect the ‘tail risk’ (low probability, but high impact potential) that the Euro-area crisis will hit critical mass and / or the US will hit the wall that is its Fiscal Cliff. Recently, however, EU officials have managed to by Greece a few more weeks and lawmakers on both sides of the US political spectrum have voiced confidence in a budget resolution. Winding down those factors could boost risk trends – and likely will. The critical question is how much is the market weighing this possible short-term relief against the obviously, long-term problems… Euro Finds Little Bounce from Greece Hole Plug, Spain Rescue Rumors European officials are struggling to put out fires as the flames come progressively closer with each swell. The newswires have been crowded by headlines that are clearly aimed at provoking fear in a rapidly deteriorating financial situation in the Eurozone. Yet, through all the countdowns to Greece running out of money, the questions over whether the Spain will ask for an official rescue and other (lesser) concerns that have intensified this past week; the euro has posted limited – though consistent – downside progress. In contrast, recent positive developments / speculation have yielded just as little return in the Euro’s favor. Between a bill auction yesterday and allowance of Asset Backed Securities use as collateral, Greece looks like it will be able to cover the bond maturity that happens on Friday. On another front, rumors were running in the speculative circles that Spain would soon seek a bailout. Neither risk (EURUSD) nor anti-risk (EURAUD) pair closed in the green for the euro. Perhaps the market is awaiting today’s event risk: Greek and Portuguese 3Q GDP. There is no misinterpret ting these reports. British Pound Rallies Briefly After CPI Data, Right Back Towards 1.5850 In quiet trading conditions, traditional fundamental releases – that would otherwise struggle for face time in market influence against larger themes like risk trends – can have a bigger impact on price action. That was the case with the pound and CPI data this past session. The headline CPI reading for October rose 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis – a pickup from the lowest reading since November 2009. GBPUSD and other pound pairs responded with a brief bounce, but it wouldn’t hold. The BoE will not be hiking rates anytime soon. Japanese Yen: Risk Aversion May have Wavered but the Yen Hasn’t We have seen a strong risk aversion move this past week – though it may have been uneven across the markets – and the yen has certainly benefit the safe haven seeking. The only problem is that policy officials are trying to push the currency lower to offer some relief to the economy through exports. It is likely doubly frustrating that with recent hints over the past 24 hours at a possible bounce in risk trends that the yen has continued to gain ground against all of its counterparts. We have to wonder at what point, Japanese authorities will mimic the SNB. Swiss Franc at Two Month High Versus Euro, 1.2000 in Sight SNB President Jordan must not be happy. Two months ago, the EURCHF exchange rate finally picked up from the central bank’s force-imposed 1.2000-floor without the express influence of policy authority. Tail risk on the Euro-crisis seemed to ease and the safe haven flows reversed. Today, however, we are only 35 pips off that floor once again. After this brief jaunt, the market may realize the SNB will have to push it higher. Australian Dollar Losing Steam on Rate Outlook, Bullishness Deflating The Australian dollar seems to be relentless. The currency has climbed against the dollar and yen despite risk aversion moves from US equities this past week. And, despite the even footing, it has also advanced against fellow safe haven – the New Zealand dollar. The market hasn’t fully committed to risk aversion, but the Aussie’s true strength is the reduction of expected rate cuts. Well, that rebound seems to be fizzling out… Gold Makes a Bearish Turn but Commitment Lacking Without Dollar Gold has put in for three consecutive bearish days through Tuesday’s close. Though we haven’t moved very far on this retreat, it is still the worst trend for the metal in over a month. Until the dollar commits to a clear run – the anti-fiat / anti-inflation appeal of gold is put into the spotlight. Meanwhile, ETF holdings are at record highs and the CBOE’s gold volatility index has plunged back to multi-year lows (14.5 percent). Nov 14, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

OctaFx - Octawelcome free 8 USD bonus OctaFX is offering 8 USD deposit bonus for any new account! Open a bonus account Open a Welcome account today! Verify your account Upload your documents for verification Get your bonus Your 8 USD free bonus will be credited to your accoun You can always visit the promotion page for the rules and details!

OctaFX.Com - Our Client's Funds Security is Our Top Priority. Our client's funds security is our top priority. With OctaFX you can be absolutely sure your deposits are secured in every possible way. Here are some of the measures we take to ensure funds protection: Segregated Accounts In accordance with the international regulation standards OctaFX uses segregated account to keep protected customers' funds segregated from the company's balance sheets. This makes your funds secure and untouched. SSL-protected Personal Area We use highly secured technology to protect your personal data and financial transactions. SSL-secured Personal Area is protected with 128-bit encryption, which makes your browsing safe and your data inaccessible to any third parties. Account verification OctaFX recommends you to verify your account by submitting your personal ID scan and an address proof. This simple measure will make sure your transactions are authorized and secured. Secure withdrawal rules Since a withdrawal from a real account requires an email confirmation, no one can ever access your account but yourself. It is also required that you use the same payment details for deposits and withdrawals. Thus, under no circumstances can OctaFX transfer your withdrawal to an unauthorized third party. 3D secure Visa/Mastercard authorization We apply 3D secure technology when processing credit and debit cards. This technology makes all the Visa/Mastercard transactions transparent and safe. Advanced protection OctaFX technical environment is monitored 24/7 by a dedicated team of highly professional security engineers and technical specialists. They have developed and maintain top level protection, so any data loss, damage or other technical issues are highly unlikely.

OctaFX.com- Forex Analysis: Trading Strategies Continue Buying US Dollar Article Summary: Our forex sentiment-based trading strategies have turned heavily long the US Dollar against major forex counterparts. Said systems have done well in recently-slow market conditions. And though past performance is not indicative of future results, we favor trading systems that have produced fairly consistent results across USD pairs. DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals –The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) trades at multi-month peaks versus the Euro and other major counterparts; current market conditions suggest the Greenback could see further gains. We believe that the US Dollar may have set a significant bottom against the Euro and other counterparts on an important shift in forex sentiment. A key caveat remains, however: FX volatility levels trade near their lowest levels since the onset of the financial crisis. The safe-haven US currency tends to do well during times of financial market turmoil, and exceedingly steady market conditions often produce Dollar weakness. Yet we won’t argue with price action, and the fact remains that the USD currency remains in a steady uptrend—producing strong trend trading signals. Our forex sentiment-based trading signals are currently long the USD versus the Euro, Australian Dollar, British Pound, Canadian Dollar,and New Zealand Dollar. And though past performance is not indicative of future results, these trend trades have done reasonably well in recent months. We’ll stick to trend trades in several US Dollar pairs, but be wary of potentially choppy short-term price moves amidst extremely low forex options market volatility readings. DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias Nov 12, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

Forex: Commodity Currencies Rally, but Euro Remains Lower ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP A quiet US trading session is on the horizon in light of the Veteran’s Day holiday, which has bond markets closed and lower volumes expected throughout the day on Monday. Nevertheless, with Asian and European markets fully online, there are have been some noteworthy developments that have influenced price action today worth discussing. Yesterday, the Samaras-led Greek government had its 2013 budget passed in parliament, clearing the way for Euro-zone finance ministers to vote on the next tranche of Greek aid later on today. Although the event would typically yield a more positive risk horizon, it appears that the measures passed will fall short of pan-European approval. A meeting is set for later today that should provide insight into this process. We expect some sort of intermediate measures to be proposed that keeps Greece afloat over the next few weeks, as the country is expected to run out of money (again) in the next week or so. The Euro seems to be reflecting this lack of enthusiasm, as the European currencies have trailed their Asia and North American counterparts for most of the day. With the US fiscal cliff squarely in focus – and freshly reelected President Barack Obama convening with Congressional leaders later this week – the Japanese Yen remains well-supported, while Gold and Silver continue to outperform and lead the broader market, as they have since their mid-September highs. Taking a look at credit, Euro weakness has been reflected by weakness in periphery bonds. The Italian 2-year note yield has increased to 2.318% (+2.5-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has increased to 3.139 % (+8.7-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has increased to 4.995% (+3.4-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has increased to 5.842% (+5.0-bps); higher yields imply lower prices. Nov 12, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates

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OctaFX.Com - Forex: Dollar Looks for Breakout Under Fiscal Cliff Insecurity Even the most optimistic investor has to be nervous about the state of risk appetite. This past week, the benchmark US equity indexes (Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500) broke critical levels of support and plunged to three-month lows. That is a considerable warning that a bigger speculative deleveraging effort is under way. The shift from this particular market is particularly remarkable. Not only are equities the average investor’s ‘risky’ or growth-sensitive asset, but the Federal Reserve has further backstopped the market through stimulus. In other words, a turn here speaks to the kind of concern that not even a central bank guarantee can prevent. Under this kind of pressure, we would expect the Forex market’s preferred safe haven currency (the US dollar) to surge. So why hasn’t it taken off yet? Looking back at the greenback’s performance this past week, we see that progress has been uneven at best. The benchmark EURUSD has slipped to two-month lows below 1.2750 and GBPUSD has followed suit. That said, the far more risk-sensitive AUDUSD and NZDUSD have refused to definitively reverse their respective bull trends – an odd thing for carry pairs that should be exceptionally sensitive to sentiment trends. Furthermore, pulling back from the ebb and flow of risk, USDJPY has retreated sharply even though the yen faces immediate fundamental troubles with its fiscal health. Ultimately, it is the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) that best illustrates the reticence of the world’s reserve currency. Congestion has been tamed by the 100-day moving average and pulsating 10,000 figure above. Over the past months, we have seen a few disconnects between benchmark measures – though they haven’t been quite as flagrant. In most of those cases, the grounds for the divergence were a lack of conviction. Risk aversion (or risk appetite) wasn’t fully established, so either one asset was moving because it was extremely sensitive to sentiment or there was otherwise a completely different fundamental driver in play. There is an element of disbelief to this move as well. While there is plenty of fundamental fuel to raze sentiment to the ground (slowing growth, a downturn in earnings growth, Euro-area debt crisis, Asian financial troubles, US fiscal crisis, etc), we need the spark from the speculative ranks to ensure the spark catches. While hesitation is certainly an aspect, deleveraging is starting to give an active face to otherwise intangible fundamental worry. The moves we are starting to see should have leveraged more of a response from the dollar. Something else was acting against this straightforward speculative reaction – a buffer. That extra facet is the primary source of the fear that has developed - the ‘Fiscal Cliff’. This is a media-derived term that refers to a sudden expiration of tax cuts and implementation of spending cuts – activated at the end of the year if the US government cannot find a solution to rein the budget in. The $600 billion impact the cliff entails would easily drive the US economy to recession and carry serious ramifications for the global markets that are already on shaky footing. Normally, this would be a significant booster for the dollar. Why? Though the US would be the point of origin, the backdraft would be a global event that sent investors the world over seeking safety in the most liquid and trustworthy assets – ironically enough, the dollar and Treasuries. Yet, not this time. There is another element to this explosive mix. If the fiscal cliff scenario plays out, it would likely lead to a US downgrade. That would lower (marginally, but substantive) the dollar’s safe haven status. As we must often do as speculators, tracking out the path from here runs on the most probable outcomes and expectations as to how speculators will respond. It is highly unlikely that the US plummets over the fiscal cliff – though even if it did, the backlash of the diminished safe haven status would be short-lived and the dollar would rally back eventually. The more contentious scenario is that the budgetary issue is solved and the market expects it. As the most prolific threat to stability, the absence of this risk could lead to a rebound in risk and dollar tumble. There are other issues however. The dollar needs fiscal cliff uncertainty and broad risk aversion. Nov 10, 2012 OctaFX.Com News Updates