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European Economics Preview: German Factory Orders Data Due Industrial orders from Germany and Eurozone sentix investor confidence are the major reports due at the start of the week, headlining a light day for the European economic news. The Czech statistical office is slated to release industrial and construction output figures at 3.00 am ET. After rising 5.4 percent in November, industrial production is forecast to grow 1.5 percent annually. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders is set to publish U.K. new car registrations data for January at 4.00 am ET. Registrations were down 3.7 percent in December. Eurozone sentix investor confidence is due at 4.30 am ET. The confidence index had fallen to -21.1 in January from -24 in December. At 6.00 am ET, Germany's Federal Ministry of Economy and Technology is scheduled to issue factory orders for December. Economists forecast industrial orders to grow 1 percent month-on-month after falling 4.8 percent in November. On a yearly basis, a 0.8 percent fall is expected. At 9.00 am ET, French T-bill auction is due. The government aims to raise EUR 2.1 billion from 182-day T-bills and EUR 2.2 billion from 364-day bills. Also, it will issue EUR 4.2 billion 91-day bills. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

Dollar And Yen Rise On Greece Woes The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen strengthened against other major currencies on Monday as worries about Greece's unresolved debt crisis prompted traders to bet on safe-havens. Investors remained cautious as Greek political leaders will resume talks today after failing to bridge differences on reforms required by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission, known collectively as the troika. After meeting for hours over the weekend, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said they had agreed on some conditions, but others needed to be addressed. The dollar climbed to a 12-day high of 0.9265 against the Swiss franc, compared to last week's close of 0.9191. The next upside target level for the dollar is seen at 0.934. The dollar rose to 5-day highs of 1.3032 against the euro and 1.5733 against the pound. If the dollar gains further, it may likely target 1.295 against the euro and 1.570 against the pound. The euro-dollar and the pound-dollar pairs were worth 1.3144 and 1.5821, respectively at last week's close. Data from the Lloyds Banking Group's Halifax division showed today that U.K. house prices recovered in January after falling in previous two straight months. House prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month, reversing last month's 1 percent fall. Prices in the three months to January were 1.8 percent lower than in the same period a year earlier. The US dollar that closed last week's trading at 0.9940 against the Canadian dollar strengthened to 0.9982. If the greenback-loonie pair advances further, it will break parity and target the 1.004 level. Against the Australian dollar, the US dollar edged up to 1.0686, compared to Friday's close of 1.0771. On the upside, 1.060 is seen as the next target level for the greenback. The U.S. dollar advanced to a 5-day high of 0.8290 against the New Zealand dollar and the next upside target level for the greenback is seen at 0.824. At last week's close, the kiwi-greenback pair was quoted at 0.8356. But the dollar pulled back from its Asian session's 10-day high of 76.81 and the pair is currently trading at 76.70. At Friday's close, the dollar-yen pair was quoted at 76.59. The yen also gained today, hitting 4-day highs of 99.90 against the euro and 82.77 against the franc. If the yen advances further, it may likely target 99.6 against the euro and 82.4 against the franc. The euro-yen and the franc-yen pairs were worth 100.67 and 83.37, respectively at Friday's close. Against the pound, the yen rose to as high as 120.60 with 120.4 seen as the next upside target level. The pound-yen pair ended Friday's trading at 121.17. The yen jumped to 63.53 against the New Zealand dollar and 81.91 against the Australian dollar, compared to last week's close of 64.0 and 82.49, respectively. The next upside target level for the yen is seen at 63.3 against the kiwi and 81.4 against the aussie. Meanwhile, the yen recovered from its previous session's 10-day low of 77.21 against the Canadian dollar. As of now, the pair is worth 76.86, compared to 77.08 hit late New York Friday. Looking ahead, German factory orders for December is due at 6 am ET and Canada's Ivey PMI for January is expected at 10 am ET. More FOREX-news on pages Insta Forex.Com

Eurozone Investor Confidence Improves For Second Month Eurozone investor confidence improved for the second consecutive month in February, results of a survey by the think tank Sentix showed Monday. The confidence index rose sharply to -11.1 from -21.1 in January. Economists were expecting the indicator to climb to -16.5. The current assessment index came in at -15.8 in February, up from -18.8 in the previous month. Likewise, the expectations index improved sharply to -6.3 from -23.5 in January. More FOREX-news on pages Insta Forex.Com

Economic Recovery- 'Job' Well Done? The non-farm payrolls report for January came as a further confirmation of the strength that is getting entrenched in the labor market. If job gains are sustained at this pace over the next couple of months, the unemployment rate could spiral downward. The upturn in the labor market has more than one implication. Firstly, it is bestowing upon consumers, whose spending makes up two-thirds of economic activity in the U.S., additional purchasing power to spend on goods and services. This in turn perks up domestic demand and growth. Additionally, the expansion in payrolls reflects corporate faith in economic growth. That said, most economists do not believe that the new ray of labor market hope will alter Federal Reserve's timeline for a rate increase, although it could keep any further quantitative easing at bay. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic too, some clarity is emerging despite the region still remaining mired in the debt imbroglio. Business activity indicators in the U.K. and the eurozone released last week were fairly encouraging. With the eurozone seeing a host of positive developments, including the positive reaction to the 3-year LTRO, fiscal reforms being implemented in Spain and Italy and the agreement reached among the European leaders concerning a fiscal compact, Deutsche Bank believes that the Governing Council of the European Central Bank is unlikely to cut interest rates at its meeting this week and also in the next few months. Last week, the Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 243,000 jobs in January, higher than the average monthly gains of 152,000 for 2011. Private sector payrolls expanded by 257,000. The job gains showed depth, with strength seen across most sectors of the economy. And what's more, the unemployment rate based on the household survey dipped further to a near 3-year low of 8.3 percent. Earlier last week, the ADP's survey showed that the private sector added jobs at a pace a touch lower than expected in January. The private sector added 170,000 jobs in January, while the previous month's gains were downwardly revised by 33,000 to 292,000. Manufacturing readings of the week were also fairly robust. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing survey showed that its headline manufacturing index rose to 54.1 in January from 53.1 in December. The new orders rose 3 points to 57.6 and the order backlogs index climbed 4.5 points to 52.5. Meanwhile, the employment index eased 0.5 points to 54.3. However, out of 18 industries surveyed only 9 reported expansion. The results of the ISM-Chicago's manufacturing survey showed that the headline manufacturing index dipped to 60.2 in January from 62.2 in December. The new orders index fell to 63.6 from 67.1, while the order backlogs index retreated into contraction zone, dropping to 48.3. Additionally, the employment index fell 5.4 points to 59.2. Also, the ISM's service sector survey showed that the service sector expanded at the fastest pace in about a year. The headline index rose 3.8 points to 56.8 and the business activity index climbed 3.6 points to 59.5. The new orders index was up about 5 points to 59.4 and despite rising 4 points, the backlog orders index remained just short of the cut-off mark of '50' that demarcates expansion and contraction. Additionally, the employment index surged up 7.6 points to 57.4. Construction spending rose 1.5 percent month-over-month in December, marking the fourth increase in a row. Non-residential construction spending climbed 3.3 percent, while non-residential construction spending also increased from the previous month. Meanwhile, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index fell 0.7 percent month-over-month, declining for the third straight month. Annually, prices were down 3.7 percent. Additionally, auto sales came in at a healthy pace of 14.2 million vehicles, matching the pace seen since August 2009, when sales benefited from the government's cash for clunkers program. At the same time, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell 3.7 points to 61.1 in January. The present situation index slipped 8.1 points to 38.4 and the expectations index edged down 0.8 points to 76.2. Fed speeches are sprinkled over the economic calendar of the unfolding week. Other than these, there are very few Main Street events that the markets can look forward to. The Commerce Department's trade balance report for December and the results of the Reuters and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey are among the closely watched reports of the week. The Federal Reserve's consumer credit report for December, the Commerce Department's wholesale inventories report for December, the Treasury Budget for January and the Treasury auctions of 3-year and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds round up the economic events of the week. Economists expect the trade deficit for December to remain unchanged from the previous month, as a rebound in exports is offset by higher import prices of petroleum products. BMO Capital Markets expects trade to support growth slightly in 2012 after slightly deducting from growth in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, a consumer sentiment reading of the week is likely to show that confidence among consumers wasn't dented much, as the effect of the recent increase in gasoline prices is mitigated by buoyant financial market performance. Monday Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher is due to speak to the Institute of International Finance in Washington on the "Economic and Monetary Policy Outlook, a Trip Around the World," at 12:15 pm ET. The speech will be followed by a session with the media. Tuesday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to testify on the economy to the Senate Budget Committee at 10 am ET. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to release its monthly consumer credit report at 3 pm ET. Consumer credit for December is expected to show an increase of $7 billion. The outstanding consumer credit rose by an annual rate of 9.9 percent to $2.48 trillion, with revolving credit tied to credit cards rising by 8.5 percent, while non-revolving credit tied to autos climbed by 10.7 percent. Wednesday The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly petroleum inventory report for the week ended February 3rd at 10:30 am ET. Crude oil inventories rose by 4.2 million barrels in the week ended January 27th to 338.9 million barrels, with inventories remaining in the upper limit of the average range. Gasoline stockpiled increased by 3 million barrel and were in the upper limit of the average range. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles edged down 0.1 million barrels and remained in the middle of the average range. Refinery capacity utilization averaged 83.3 percent over the four weeks ended January 27th compared to 84.1 percent over the previous four weeks. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks to the Bishop Ranch Forum on "The Federal Reserve and the Economic Recovery," in San Ramon, California at 10:40 am ET. Thursday The Labor Department is due to release its customary jobless claims report for the week ended February 4th at 8:30 am ET. Economists expect claims to edge up to 370,000 from 367,000 in the previous week. For the week ending January 28, initial claims for unemployment benefits came in at a seasonally adjusted level of 367,000. This marks a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 379,000 - slightly higher than the 377,000 initially reported. The Commerce Department is due to release its wholesale inventories report at 10 am ET. Economists expect wholesale inventories at the end of December to show a 0.4 percent increase. Wholesale inventories at the end of November were up 0.1 percent month-over-month and were 10.5 percent higher than a year-ago. Meanwhile, wholesale sales climbed a steeper 0.6 percent from October and were up 11.3 percent from last year. The inventories to sales ratio came in at 1.15 compared to 1.16 percent in November 2010. Friday The trade gap data for December is due out at 8:30 am ET. Economists estimate that the trade gap remained unchanged at $47.8 billion in the month. The trade gap measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. U.S. exports fell by 0.9 percent to a level of $177.8 billion while imports were up 1.3 percent to a level of $225.6 billion. That put the trade deficit at $47.8 billion, a 10.4 percent increase from October's revised level of $43.3 billion - little changed from the $43.5 billion initially reported. Most economists had predicted that October's narrowing of the deficit would be reversed but had generally forecast that the deficit would come in lower, at roughly $45 billion. The preliminary report of the Reuters/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey for February is scheduled to be released at 9.55 am ET. The consumer sentiment index is expected to edge down to 74.3 from January's 75. Bernanke is due to speak to the 2012 National Association of Homebuilders International Builders' Show on "Housing Markets In Transition" and takes questions from the audience, in Orlando at 12:30 pm ET. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto will speak to the Neighborhood Housing Services of Greater Cleveland Annual Luncheon on "Creating Value in Distressed Neighborhoods at 12:50 pm ET. The Treasury Budget, a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government, is due to be released at 2 PM ET. The budget is considered an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Economists expect a deficit of $50.1 billion for January compared to a deficit of $86 billion for December. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

Daily Technical Analysis Thu,February 06, 2012 The EURUSD was indecisive last week. As you can see on my h4 chart below price has been moving sideways since January 26. The bias is neutral in nearest term and need a clear break from the range area to see clearer direction. Price is still in a bullish phase since bounced from 1.2625 and broke above the trend line resistance but no further bullish scenario can be expected until a clear break above 1.3240/50 area. On the downside, a clear break back below 1.3000 could stop the bullish phase, testing 1.2930 even lower. Aggressive intraday traders can long around 1.3000/25 or short around 1.3240/50 with tight stop loss. The GBPUSD was indecisive last week and now struggling around 1.5780. The bias is neutral in nearest term. The bullish momentum seems hesitate and still unable to consistently move above 1.5780 but only a clear break and daily close back below 1.5700 could stop the bullish intraday outlook and probably turn the intraday bias to a bearish view testing 1.5600. Immediate resistance is seen around 1.5830. A clear break above that area would keep the bullish scenario strong testing 1.5900 - 1.6000. The USDJPY had another indecisive movement last week. There are no changes in my technical outlook where price is still in a long period of consolidation phase with low volatility since six/seven months ago. However, looks like the nearest term bias turns bullish now testing 77.30 area. I still prefer to have a long term perspective seeing area above record low 75.56 as a buy zone expecting huge bullish reversal scenario. The USDCHF didn't make significant movement last week. The bias remains neutral in nearest term with range area to be closely watched between 0.9320 - 0.9050. As long as stays below 0.9320 the bearish scenario since the failure to break above 0.9600 should remain intact and I still prefer a bearish intraday scenario at this phase. Immediate support is seen around 0.91750/50 A clear break below that area could trigger further bearish pressure testing 0.9100 - 0.9050 region. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Producer Price Data Due Producer prices from Eurozone and Purchasing Managers' survey results from the U.K. are the major reports due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news. In addition, Spain and France are set to conduct debt auctions. At 2.00 am ET, the Federal Customs Administration is slated to publish Swiss December trade data. The trade surplus is expected to fall to CHF 2.5 billion from CHF 2.95 billion in November. U.K. CIPS/Markit construction Purchasing Managers' survey results are due at 4.30 am ET. The indicator is seen rising to 52.5 in January from 53.2 in December. Spain is set to raise EUR 3.5 billion to EUR 4.5 billion through a bond auction at 4.30 am ET. The issue includes bonds maturing on January 2017, July 2015 and October 2016. At 4.50 am ET, France is set to issue longer term bonds or OATs. The Agence France Tresor will auction bonds with 7, 8, 10 years maturity. The agency aims to raise between EUR 6.5 billion and EUR 8 billion. At 5.00 am ET, Eurostat is scheduled to issue euro area producer price figures for December. Producer price inflation is forecast to slow to 4.3 percent in December from 5.3 percent in November. On a monthly basis, producer prices are expected to drop 0.1 percent. The Czech National Bank is set to announce its interest rate decision at 7.00 am ET. The central bank is widely expected to retain the rate at 0.75 percent. More FOREX-news on pages Insta Forex.Com

Euro Recovers Some Recent Losses Against Most Majors The euro recouped some of its recent losses against most of its major rivals in early European deals on Thursday. The single currency is presently quoted at 1.3170 against the dollar, 100.25 versus the yen, 0.8313 against the pound and 1.2055 against the Swiss franc. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

Eurozone Producer Price Inflation Eases In December Eurozone producer price inflation eased as expected in December, the latest figures from Eurostat showed Thursday. The producer price index for the total industry, excluding construction, rose 4.3 percent year-on-year, slower than 5.4 percent rise in the preceding month. Prices in intermediate goods industry grew 2.8 percent year-on-year, while energy prices climbed 9.5 percent. Prices of capital goods were 1.5 percent higher than December 2010. On a monthly basis, the index fell 0.2 percent compared to expectations of a 0.1 percent fall. The average industrial producer price index for 2011, compared with 2010, increased 5.9 percent. More FOREX-news on pages Insta Forex.Com

Pound Jumps To 5-day High Against Yen The pound appreciated by more than 1 percent to reach a 5-day high of 120.84 against the yen around 7:45 am ET from Asian session's 2-day low of 119.63. The pound-yen pair is presently worth 120.70 with 121.60 seen as the next likely resistance level.

Eurozone Jobless Rate Steady At 10.4% In December The unemployment rate in the euro area remained unchanged in December, data released by Eurostat showed Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate was 10.4 percent, the same as in November. Economists expected the rate to rise to 10.4 percent from November's originally reported rate of 10.3 percent. Compared with November, the number of persons unemployed increased by 20,000 to 16.469 million in the euro area. Compared with December 2010, unemployment rose by 751,000. The highest unemployment rate was recorded by Spain, 22.9 percent in December. Greece posted a jobless rate of 19.2 percent. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

European Economics Preview: German Unemployment Data Due Unemployment figures from Germany and Eurozone and mortgage approvals from the U.K. are the major statistical reports due on Tuesday, headlining a busy day for the European economic news. At 2.00 am ET, the Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to issue German retail sales figures for December. Economists forecast retail sales to rise 0.8 percent month-on-month after easing 1 percent in November. French consumer spending and producer prices are due at 2.45 am ET. Consumer spending is forecast to rise 0.2 percent month-on-month after falling 0.1 percent in November. Producer price inflation is seen slowing to 4.7 percent annually in December from 5.6 percent in November. Spain's flash HICP and Hungary's PPI and unemployment reports are due at 3.00 am ET. Economists forecast Spanish inflation to slow slightly to 2.3 percent in January from 2.4 percent in December. The Federal Labor Agency is set to release German unemployment data at 3.55 am ET. The number of unemployed is forecast to fall by 10,000 in January. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate is seen stable at 6.8 percent. At 4.00 am ET, Norway's retail sales and C2 credit indicator figures are due. Retail sales growth is seen at 2.2 percent annually, faster than the 0.9 percent increase in November. The Bank of England is set to publish mortgage approvals figures at 4.30 am ET. The number of mortgage approvals is seen at 54,000 in December compared to 52,900 in November. M4 money supply data is also due at the same time. Eurozone jobless data for December is due from Eurostat at 5.00 am ET. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 10.4 percent from 10.3 percent in November. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

European Economics Preview: Eurozone Economic Sentiment Data Due Economic confidence data from Eurozone and preliminary inflation figures from Germany are the major statistical reports due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news. At 2.00 am ET, Germany's Federal Statistical Office is scheduled to issue wholesale turnover figures for the fourth quarter and 2011. Spain's statistical office INE is slated to release GDP figures for the fourth quarter at 3.00 am ET. According to the estimates of the Bank of Spain, the economy shrank 0.3 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter. The Italian government is set to hold a debt auction at 5.00 am ET. It aims to raise up to EUR 8 billion. Late Friday, Fitch downgraded Spain's long-term debt rating to 'A' from 'AA-'. The auction includes bonds maturing on March 2022 and other two maturing on April 2016 and March 2021. A new bond maturing in May 2017 is also slated for the day. The European Commission is set to publish monthly economic sentiment survey results at 5.00 am ET. Eurozone economic confidence is seen rising to 93.8 in January from 93.3 in December. Likewise, business sentiment is forecast to improve to -0.25 from -0.31 a month ago. Germany's preliminary inflation figures for January are due later today. Economists forecast harmonized annual inflation to rise to 2.4 percent in January from 2.3 percent in December. On a monthly basis, the harmonized index of consumer prices is forecast to drop 0.4 percent. EU leaders and finance ministers are set to meet in Brussels today. The informal meeting will discuss the steps to be taken by the EU in order to overcome the current debt crisis and tackle its consequences. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com

Daily Technical Analysis Thu,January 26, 2012 EUR/USD Daily Forecast The EURUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.2930 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.3105. This fact keeps the nearest term bias remains strongly to the upside testing 1.3160 resistance area. As you can see on my h4 chart below, another trend line resistance has been broken to the upside. Above 1.3160, the next nearest bullish target is seen around 1.3250 region. From a broader outlook, the break above the 200 - 4 hour - EMA and 1.3000 resistance area this week could create further bullish scenario testing 1.3530 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.3050. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.2930 the overall intraday technical bias remains strongly to the upside. GBP/USD Daily Forecast The GBPUSD attempted to push lower yesterday, bottomed at 1.5532 but whipsawed to the upside and closed higher at 1.5656. This fact keeps the nearest term bullish bias since the rejection to move consistently below 1.5270 support area remains strong. As you can see on my daily chart below price is now testing the trend line resistance (red) and 1.5650 - 1.5700 resistance area. A clear break and daily close above the trend line resistance could trigger further bullish scenario testing 1.5800 even 1.6000 region. Immediate support is seen around 1.5600. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.5500 my overall intraday bias remains to the upside. USD/CHF Daily Forecast The USDCHF attempted to push higher yesterday, slipped above 0.9320 but whipsawed to the downside on broad US Dollar weakness and closed lower at 0.9217. The bias is bearish in nearest term especially if price able to make a clear break below 0.9200 testing 0.9050 - 0.9000 support area. On the upside, only a clear break and daily close back above 0.9320 could stop the current strong bearish intraday outlook after the failure to break above 0.9600 this month. USD/JPY Daily Forecast The USDJPY attempted to push higher yesterday after the break above the minor range as you can see on my daily chart below, but further bullish momentum was rejected after found good resistance at 78.27 and closed lower at 77.77. The bias is neutral in nearest term but with a little bit bullish intraday bias. A clear break and daily close above 78.27 could trigger further bullish scenario testing 79.52 key resistance area. From a broader outlook, I still prefer a bullish scenario at this phase, seeing area above 75.56 as a buy zone expecting a bullish reversal scenario with a tight stop loss below 75.56. Daily Forecast for Crosses EURJPY Forecast The EURJPY continued its bullish momentum yesterday after the break above 100.74 key resistance area, closed at 101.92. This fact not only could continue the nearest term bullish bias testing 102.48 but also could trigger further bullish scenario testing the major trend line resistance (white) and 103.85. Immediate support is seen around 101.00 - 100.74. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term as direction would become unclear. GBPJPY Forecast The GBPJPY continued its bullish bias yesterday after the break above the trend line resistance (red) as you can see on my daily chart below. The bias remains bullish in nearest term testing 122.62 resistance area. My major bearish scenario should remains intact but a clear break and daily close above 122.62 could be a beginning of a major bullish reversal scenario at least testing 125.50 area. Immediate support is seen around 121.00. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but only a clear break and daily close back below 120.00 could stop the current strong bullish phase. AUDUSD Forecast The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 1.0618 and closed at 1.0590. This fact keeps the bullish continuation scenario since the break above the ascending triangle remains strong testing 1.0751 area. Immediate support is seen around 1.0550. A clear break below that area could lead price to neutral zone in nearest term but as long as stays above 1.0400 my overall intraday technical bias remains to the upside. More FOREX-news on pages InstaForex.Com