John Starks

Forexpros - U.S. stock markets closed higher Thursday, despite weak economic data, as market sentiment was boosted by stronger-than-expected earnings by corporate leaders such as IBM and eBay. During early U.S. trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.27%, the S&P 500 index added 0.27% while the Nasdaq Composite index added 0.79%. Better-than-expected earnings from corporate bellwethers such as IBM and eBay released after U.S. market closed on Wednesday helped boost appetite for riskier assets. However, pressuring equities, U.S. existing home sales fell unexpectedly in June, underlining concerns over the health of the U.S. housing sector, industry data indicated Thursday. In a report, the National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell by 5.4% to a seasonally adjusted 4.37 million units in June, defying expectations for a modest increase to 4.63 million units. Existing home sales in May totaled 4.62 million units, upwardly revised from a previously reported 4.55 million units. Online auction site eBay saw shares rally 9.5% after it said second quarter profit more-than-doubled, thanks to higher revenue from its PayPal online payments business and its e-commerce websites. Shares in tech giant IBM jumped 3.4% after the company raised its full-year earnings outlook, despite reporting a 3% decline in second quarter revenue. Shares in Finnish phone maker Nokia surged 11.85% in New York after reporting second quarter sales fell 19% from a year ago to USD9.2 billion, beating expectations for a decline to EUR8.97billion. Sales of its flagship Lumia smartphone totaled 4 million in the March-to-June period. Shares in mobile phone chip maker Qualcomm climbed 4.35% after reporting a 15% increase in fiscal third quarter earnings. Revenue rose 28% to USD4.63 billion. Elsewhere, shares in Walgreens soared 12.8% after the firm said that it has reached a new agreement with Express Scripts Holding on rates and terms for a multi-year pharmacy network agreement. Express Scripts Holdings Company shares rose 1.75% on the news, while shares in competitor CVS Caremark tumbled 4.5%. On the downside, Wall Street investment bank Morgan Stanley saw shares drop 2.8% after reporting second quarter revenue fell to USD7 billion from USD9.2 billion in the preceding quarter. Excluding debt valuation adjustments, revenue in the latest quarter totaled USD6.6 billion. Wall Street analysts expected the investment bank to post revenue of USD7.54 billion. Yum! Brands shares fell 2.3% after reporting lower-than-expected second quarter, as a slowdown in demand from China weighed in results. Meanwhile, stocks battled weak manufacturing numbers. Manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia-region in July contracted for the third consecutive month in July, adding to concerns over the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, official data showed on Thursday. In a report, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index improved by 3.7 points to minus 12.9 in July from June’s reading of minus 16.6. Analysts had expected the index to improve by 8.6 points to a reading of minus 8.0 in July. On the index, a reading above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. Across the Atlantic, the EURO STOXX 50 rose 0.68%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.77%, while Germany’s DAX 30 jumped 1.02% Investors were looking ahead to a German vote on approving the country’s part in an aid package for Spanish banks later in the day. Earlier Thursday, Spain saw demand weaken and borrowing costs rise sharply at an auction of two, five and seven-year government bonds, fuelling fears that the country could be locked out of international credit markets. Following the auction the yield on the country’s 10-year bonds was at 7.02%, breaching the critical 7% threshold, widely viewed as unsustainable in the long run. In the U.K., official data showed that retail rose less-than-expected in June, inching up 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.6% gain, as wet weather hurt demand for outdoor products. Friday is a slow day for economic releases with traders anticipating the Canadian core CPI and a few lesser economic reports.

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - USD/JPY is last at 78.71 bids, off recent fresh 1-month lows at 78.66, 2 pips lower of previous weekly lows from Monday. The pair is down by -0.48% since previous Asia-Pacific open yesterday, and -0.61% for the week. Next lower low can be found on June 15 at 78.61, just 3 pips below current levels as the pair keeps breaking lower. Natural yen correlation has changed as of late, making a divergence with yen rising while risk appetite is on and equities are rising, Nikkei index higher by +0.94% at the moment, barely above the 8800 points, along with rest of local share markets. As Haruya Ida from IFR Markets says: “USD/JPY off a bit o/n on lower US yields and changed correlation to risk,” adding: “Risk not really off currently but certainly not on.” Immediate support to the downside for USD/JPY shows at mentioned 15 June lows at 78.61, followed by May 31 lows at 78.21, and June 04 lows at 77.98. For the upside, nearest term resistance comes at Monday's lows 78.68, followed by yesterday's NY session/Tuesday’s lows at 78.78, and yesterday's London session lows at 79.94.

Forexpros - U.S. stocks on Friday fell on news the economy added fewer jobs than predicted in June. At the close of U.S. trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.96%, the S&P 500 index was down 0.94% while the Nasdaq Composite index was down 1.30%. The U.S. added a net 80,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, below market forecasts for a gain of around 90,000. April figures were revised to 68,000 from 77,000 nonfarm payrolls, while May's numbers were revised to 77,000 from 69,000. The numbers sent investors selling equities and snapping up safe-haven dollar positions on fears the U.S. economy continues to show signs of cooling. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.66% at 83.48. Monetary policy decisions outside of the U.S. sent investors racing to the dollar and selling stocks worldwide as well. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 0.75%. A Bank of England decision to inject GBP50 billion into the economy via stimulus measures followed by interest rate cuts in China also fueled the risk-off trading session. The weak U.S. employment figures fueled fresh talk the Federal Reserve will consider stimulating the economy via quantitative easing, which would normally send stocks rising. Under quantitative easing, the Fed buys assets from banks, injecting the financial sector full of liquidity to push long-term interest rates down to foster investment and job creation, weakening the dollar in the process and sending stocks gaining. The next Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is not until Aug. 1, which kept stock-market bulls at bay on Friday. Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average gainers included Kraft Foods, up 2.39%, McDonald's Corp., up 0.44%, and Wal-Mart Stores, up 0.38%. Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average decliners included Hewlett-Packard, down 3.50%, Caterpillar, down 2.53%, and Alcoa, down 2.13%. European indices, meanwhile, finished down. After the close of European trade, the EURO STOXX 50 fell 2.15%, France's CAC 40 fell 1.88%, while Germany's DAX 30 finished down 1.92 %. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 closed down 0.53%.

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FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - AUD/CAD closed the American session well off its lows on Thursday, finishing with its first daily gain of the week at 1.0432 from 1.0402 after bouncing from a 4-day low of 1.0380, recording a 0.3% gain on the day. “The technical signals continue to lean towards the risk of a top/reversal forming in the mid 1.04 area, right around retracement resistance,” comments TD Securities. TD also observes that Wednesday’s “shooting star” top “supports the weak-ish price action seen around this level in the past few days,” and that “more information is needed” but they believe “short-term price action supports our generally bearish bias here.” AUD/CAD sits quietly around the 1.0435 mark this Friday in early Asia, with the May 26 peak at 1.0485 suggesting a level of selling interest should the pair break above immediate resistance in the 1.0450 area (29 June high). Support levels lie at 1.0406 (12 April high), 1.0377 (17 Aug high), and 1.0334 (15 Aug high).

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is grinding lower on Monday, as the effects of the Spanish rescue package are slowing dying off. At the same time, Spanish debt markets are back on centre stage as yields are above 6.15%, hitting fresh day highs. Recall that the great improvement in market sentiment since the very beginning of the day was bolstered by the Spanish financial aid oriented to sanitise its banking system, announced over the weekend. Increasing risk aversion is dragging the cross to 1.2572 or a decline of 0.52%. Next support levels are located at 1.2488 (MA10d) ahead of 1.2435 (low Jun.8) then 1.2375 (low Jun.4) and 1.2316 (MA21d). On the upside, a break above 1.2690 (high May 23) would expose 1.2820 (high May 22) then 1.2854 (MA21d) ans.12870 (high May 15).

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - According to the International Monetary Fund, the banking system in Spain could need as much as €40 billions to solve its problems, but it would be €25 billion in scenario base, €29 billion in Banco de España's scenario and €37 billion in adverse situation. "several banks would need to increase capital buffers by about EUR 40 billion in aggregate to comply with the Basel III transition schedule," says the official statement. "The Spanish authorities have recently accelerated financial sector reforms to reduce vulnerabilities in the system. They have taken measures to address some of the most problematic banks and are currently undertaking an independent valuation of all portfolios, which is a welcome step and should help to determine further restructuring needs," Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department of and head of the team that conducted the FSAP, said. "But the extent and persistence of the economic deterioration may imply further bank losses. Full implementation of reforms, as well as establishing a credible public backstop, are critical for preserving financial stability going forward," Pazarbasioglu concluded. "The report was scheduled to be released on Monday but the IMF has published it Friday late in New York but early in the morning in Spain and the whole eurozone," comments in his twitter account Mauricio Carrillo (@MCarrilloFX), analyst at FXstreet.com. "Market could assume that the IMF hurries are in line with the speculations on Spanish Bailout as soon as this weekend."

Forexpros - The dollar firmed against most major world currencies on Thursday, reversing losses sustained on building expectations that the Federal Reserve is leaning towards spurring economic activity via monetary easing tools. In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD was trading down 0.10% at 1.2569. Weak jobs reports, choppy housing recovery, lackluster economic growth rates and other disappointing economic indicators have fueled talk that the Federal Reserve may announce quantitative easing measures later this month. Under quantitative easing, the Fed buys assets from banks, injecting the economy with liquidity with the aim of pushing down long-term interest rates and fueling growth. As a side effect, the dollar weakens. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak in Congress later Thursday and the U.S. central bank's monetary policy committee will meet next week to decide on interest and possibly rolling out easing measures to jolt the economy. The dollar has weakened considerably under such sentiment though it rebounded in Asian trading Thursday after the Fed's Beige Book painted a somewhat rosier view of the U.S. economy. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, meanwhile, said downside risks still threaten the European economy, though he stopped short of announcing new long-term refinancing operations designed to ease credit conditions in Europe after a current program ends. Though Draghi says the European Central Bank will act if needed, rates remain unchanged at 1.00%. Ongoing concerns that Spain will face challenges propping up its banking sector while Greek elections loom with no clear frontrunner made the greenback attractive for safe-haven buyers. The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.17% and trading at 1.5470. The U.S. currency was up against the yen, with USD/JPY trading up 0.13% at 79.29, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF trading up 0.10% at 0.9554. The dollar was up against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.11% at 1.0287, AUD/USD down 0.34% at 0.9894 and NZD/USD down 0.27% at 0.7686. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.03% at 82.29. Later Thursday, the U.S. will release government data on initial jobless claims, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to appear before the Joint Economic Committee in Washington.

GBP/USD sits quietly within a 30-pip range around the 1.5360 area at the start of trading this Monday, practically unchanged after closing down 0.3% on Friday. The notably weak UK PMI, which fell to 45.9 vs. a consensus of 49.7 surprised markets, the latest to weigh on the pound. “Above 1.5420, the pair may attempt a recovery towards the 1.5460 area, yet unless a clear acceleration above this last, the downside will remain favored,” says Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXstreet.com; “breaks below 1.5330 in the short term should lead to a retest of past Friday’s low around 1.5260.”

USD/JPY fluctuated wildly in a 100-pip range in the minutes that followed the US nonfarm payrolls reports. As the US economy added fewer jobs than expected in May, prospects of further quantitative easing reemerged causing volatility in the dollar. However, after the initial reaction, where USD/JPY went down to 77.65 and then up to 78.68, the pair has settled inside a slim range just above the 78.00 mark. At time of writing, the cross is trading at the 78.10/20 area, still down 0.2% on the day. Similar behavior shows EUR/JPY, which fell to its lowest level in 12 years at 95.56, before bouncing strongly. Currently, the euro-yen cross trades at 96.75, virtually unchanged on the day.

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Last week’s AUD/CAD bounce from the 0.9950 area extended into the 1.0115 price zone on Monday, reaching a 12-day high as control is shifting back towards the bulls. The 38.2% Fibonacci support level of the 0.8755/1.0781 advance attracted heavy bids. Fan Yang, CMT, Chief Technical Strategist at FXTimes observes that the AUD/CAD “appears to be forming a double bottom in the daily chart IF it can clear above the 1.0110 resistance pivot area,” which represents a declining trendline from February as well as the May-high. Should AUD/CAD records a sustained break of the mentioned pivot area, Mr. Yang identifies further progressively more aggressive targets at 1.0180-1.02, 1.03, then at 1.04. The pair last trades at 1.0083 as it opens the Asian session, having gained 0.3% on Monday. To the downside, intraday support is noted at 1.0066, then below at 1.0042.

Forexpros - The Euro was higher against the British Pound on Friday. EUR/GBP was trading at 0.8018, up 0.25% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 0.7996, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 0.8102, Tuesday’s high. Meanwhile, the Euro was up against the U.S. Dollar and the Japanese Yen, with EUR/USD gaining 0.20% to hit 1.2557 and EUR/JPY rising 0.25% to hit 100.00.

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FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD is currently at 1.2795, holding above Friday's and previously session highs, with session and fresh 3-day highs at 1.2812, where ForexLive had reported sell orders, and up to 1.2830, with stop loss buy orders starting at 1.2820. The pair is higher for the day by +0.21%, with local share markets showing gains, Nikkei index near day highs up by +0.72%. read more!!

FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – US opening brought another round of risk aversion, as indexes fell to fresh 3-month lows. S&P reached 1333.25 so far, while DJIA trades barely above the daily low set at 12627, on fears Greece will finally leave the Euro zone. The EUR/USD trades near the 1.2800 mark, at its lowest level since early January this year. According to Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com chief analyst, “the hourly chart showing price below a bearish 20 SMA while indicators lead lower below their midlines. The 4 hours chart shows also a strong bearish tone, with RSI indicator accelerating below 30. Key support comes at 1.2760, a daily ascendant trend line coming from early May 2010.”