Daily Forex Technical Analysis by IFC Markets

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-08-02

The currency pair respected the surging line and drew a support line at 1.0236, shifting bias to the upside. Chances are favoring further highs due to uptrend resumption but the 50 SMA places an upside barrier at 1.0364 and could limit positive momentum for some time before prices rise to higher ground towards next resistance at 1.0420.

More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-cad/2013-08-02

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-08-05

The currency pair remains in 0.9836/0.9136 wide range with prices recently fluctuating in the lower part of the range, currently at 0.9280. At the immediate term consolidation is observed between 0.9387/0.9222 following a downside development. Looking at the DeMarker oscillator, it just escaped oversold area indicating short positioning is much riskier than long position. In addition OsMA is rising suggesting upside is more likely as well.

More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-chf/2013-08-05

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-06

The currency pair seems unable to decide a direction, fluctuating between 1.3313/1.3198 tight range in the recent term. Looking at the longer term daily history the pair is trading in 1.3416/1.2747 wide range zone with prices near the top of that range, increasing chances for downside. In addition Stochastic has recently escaped from the overbought area coupled by longer term Williams Percent Range topped at 0.00, lastly the Relative Vigor Index (RVI) provided a sell signal as its signal line was crossed from above.

More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/eur-usd/2013-08-06

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-07

Downside bias prevails in the currency pair trading with prices today falling to more than a month low at 96.88. Falling line indicates dominating trend confirmed by MACD being in negative territory and looking downwards, thus we consider chances are more for prices to achieve 96.17 rather than the 97.60. Nonetheless, we cannot ignore that Stochastic is in the oversold zone suggesting caution on short positioning, also OsMA approached dangerously previous troughs line.

More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/usd-jpy/2013-08-07

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-08-08

The sterling against the greenback formed a reversal pattern suggesting trend is positive however we are concerned because this reversal took place between 1.5754/1.4832 wide range. OsMA suggests as well that uptrend prevails coupled by surging RSI but still we would like to see prices rising above 200 SMA at 1.5542 for further confirmation.

More: http://www.ifcmarkets.com/en/technical-analysis/gbp-usd/2013-08-08

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-14

The currency pair was limited below the top of the 1.3416/1.2747 range and retreated lower than 1.3313, currently trading at 1.3264. Downside bias was held by positive macro data for the Euro and could even lift prices.

Looking at Ichimoku indicator prices dropped below Tenkan Sen but remain above Kijun Sen. The Kumo is below prices providing a support around 1.3104 and lastly the Chikou-Span is higher than prices but falling suggesting that recent pull back could go deeper. Moreover the Moving average of Oscillator is falling and just dropped into negative territory suggesting negative potential.

Therefore, we observe some early indications that pair is turning to bearish momentum and could move closer to Kumo but we are cautious that Euro zone GDP release later on could increase price volatility unforeseeable.

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hi

gbp jpy

butterfly

fexmarket.com

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-15

Current bias is to the downside after the currency pair found resistance at 61.8% of 99.93 to 95.78, at 98.41. Prices have reached major support at 97.60 where bearish wave has been limited in the last 2-hours. Oscillators do not provide any negative contrarian signal with Moving average oscillator just turning negative favoring further lows. Thus , we consider that the pair is capable of breaching barrier at 97.60 and by doing that would trigger sell orders strengthening bearish momentum that would likely drive prices to 96.85.

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Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-08-16

Upside bias drove the currency pair yesterday to 161.8% extension of 1.5432 to 1.5101, at 1.5644. At the moment prices are consolidating just below that resistance but are likely to breach that level and rise as high as the upper boundary of the 1.5751/1.4832 longer term wide range. The only factor that concerns us is that the Williams’ percent range is at its top although not confirmed by Oscillator, in addition the GBPUSD rose above 200 SMA. Thus in our view it has serious chances to test the top of the range at 1.5751.

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Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-08-19

Corrective move seems to be well limited by resistance at 0.9230 which is slightly below the 23.60% of the 1.0598 to 0.8863 and the previous key resistance at 0.93. Down trend remains in place in the price pattern and the last upside is considered a corrective move before prices resume their negative development.

Stochastic has just escaped its overbought zone and heading downwards increasing chances for negative resumption, adding to that Momentum (7) is near its peak level. However, Parabolic SAR still provides buy signal reducing chances for downside.

Therefore, we consider prices would be limited by resistance zone between 0.93/0.9230 and we would expect the currency pair more likely to fall back to 0.90 than to rise above 0.93 or at least extend into 0.9230/0.90 sideways zone.

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Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-08-20

The currency pair respected the surging line and did not fall below support at 1.0276, although upside has been limited in the last trading session by resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0604 to 1.0243, at 1.0380. Thus, prices are mainly extending into 1.0380/1.0276 sideways zone.

For that reason oscillators do not provide much of help regarding forecasts, except that Moving average of oscillator is positive favoring upside even that though is minor. We can base our view on the longer term surging trend that increases chances for further ups. Thus, we consider more likely for the pair to achieve 1.0427 than to drop below 1.0276.

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Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-08-21

The currency pair approached once more the lower boundary of the long-term 0.9834/0.9129 sideways zone with the downside bias prevailing in yesterday’s trading but limited around support at 0.9172.

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic just entered oversold territory coupled by Williams’ percent range being at oversold, both suggesting a technical retreat higher. Thus, due to oversold oscillators and prices near bottom of 0.9834/0.9129 range, we would expect a bounce up to resistance around 10 and 20 SMA at 0.9264.

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gbp aud

h4

pattern: bat

fexmarket.com

gbp aud

 

h4

 

pattern: bat

 

fexmarket.com

Thank you for the reply

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-22

The currency pair rose above the previous key resistance at 1.3400 inducing traders to follow on the long side but then suddenly dropped sharply to create a “bull trap” pattern. That pattern increased weakness and drove prices down to 1.3313.

Currently, oscillators are around extreme down levels with the Stochastic falling into oversold territory and OsMA fluctuating at previous troughs line. Thus, we consider bearish momentum power has faded with support at 1.3313 near SMA 100 likely to hold any attempt lower and we would expect prices to extend into 1.34/1.3313 area in the intraday.

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thanks, seems to be very good strategy ;)

Thank you for the reply dear Sasts1950..Keep on following our daily technical analysis

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-23

The currency pair bias has been strongly to the upside with prices walking on the upper Bollinger band and in some cases even closing above that band. Moreover, we see a newly established surging trend with higher high and higher low as well as penetration of the 200 SMA in the 4-hours chart.

However, Stochastic entered overbought zone and rose to previous peak line at 85 coupled by William’s percent range (14) peaking at its highest point at 0.00, OsMA also rose significantly but remains slightly below its earlier trough line. Adding to that, major resistance area around psychological level of 100 limits further the upside.

We would expect therefore the prices to retreat somewhat towards support at 98.39 as a corrective reaction for the bullish wave from 96.91 to 99.13.

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Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-08-26

The currency pair was limited by the upper boundary of 1.5751/1.4832 long-term daily range, shifting to downside bias and falling to support at 1.5533 where the 200 SMA is located. According to the surging trend line, the medium-term trend is to the upside and that could be respected should the prices do not fall below 1.5432.

Looking at momentum oscillators, Stochastic has still room to move lower and William’s percent range just escaped overbought zone suggesting downside is more likely. In addition, the trend oscillator OsMA just turned into negative territory.

We suspect that prices would continue their bearish bias and go as low as 1.5432 where a strong support is located. At that point chances seem for either direction almost equal.

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Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-27

The currency pair is in downside bias declining towards support at 97.66 where the surging trend line is located and coupled by 100 SMA. Thus we expect that level to hold declining prices in the intraday.

In addition, the Williams’ percent range indicates that the pair is oversold since the oscillator is almost at its bottom. Reinforcing possible upside reaction is that the shorter-term Commodity Chanel Index dropped below the subjectively set -150 line where previous troughs were observed and is increasing.

We would expect therefore the key support at 97.66 to hold declining USDJPY and perhaps then prices would extend into 98.39/97.66 tight consolidation area.

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Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-08-28

The lower boundary of the longer-term 0.9753/0.9149 daily range is currently limiting downside bias and is likely reverse momentum to upside. Williams’ percent range is near its bottom line at 100 suggesting that bulls will return to the market.

However, all the SMAs are above prices and the medium term trend is negative, therefore we consider chances for either side almost equal. We come to the expectation, that the USDCHF is more likely to continue into sideways zone with upper level at 0.9250 where 20 and 10 SMA are consolidating and lower boundary the 0.9149/0.9129 zone.

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Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-08-29

The currency pair drew a resistance line at 1.0541 where the upper Bollinger band is located, approaching to almost 2-year high around 1.0600 and then retraced to 1.0470. In the daily chart up trend prevails and that increases chances for higher levels, however psychological resistance at 1.06 places a heavy lid on prices.

There are no contrarian signals from Stochastic oscillator, coupled by MACD in positive ground and the ADX indicating a strong bullish structure for prices. Therefore, we would expect prices to overcome resistance at 1.0541 and surge as high as 1.0607, at that point we would reconsider our trading view.

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Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-30

Downside bias was somewhat blocked by the 161.8% of the 1.33 to 1.34 correction, around 1.3237. We can see that prices have been consolidating around that level in the recent trading with intraday trend being negative and downside momentum strengthened by the breaching SMAs.

However the momentum oscillators like Williams’ percent range and Stochastic are overextended down suggesting that the currency pair would consolidate or bounce up to reset oscillators.

Therefore, we consider the pair is more likely not to continue lower in the intraday with downside resuming in the following week.

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