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  • #16
    Date : 6th June 2022.

    Market Update – June 6 – USD & Stocks steady inflation worries still loom.



    USD remained steady (USDIndex 102.10) Stocks recover a tad from Friday’s post NFP sell off (NASDAQ -2.47%) and Yields also hold onto gains (2.957%). Asian markets mixed in thin trading today (AUD & NZD closed along with many EZ countries). Central bank outlooks, China’s virus lockdowns and inflation data remain in focus – NFP showed a tight jobs market and Earnings holding up, so FED may need to act again in September, Saudi Arabia has increased oil prices & US will allow two companies to import Venezuelan oil into Europe. Musk predicted a gloomy US economy (following Dimon’s comments) and suggested TESLA needed to shrink its workforce by 10% (only to then withdraw the comment), US to pause, for 24mths, tariffs on Solar Panel imports, Kuroda “Japan will not tighten monetary policy”.
    • USDIndex rallied to 102.25, back to 102.00 now.
    • EquitiesUSA500 -68 (–1.63%) at 4108, US500FUTS at 4131 now. Worries about a more aggressive FEd during the Autumn weighed on stocks.
    • Yields 10-year yield higher (2.957% at close), trades at 2.950% now.
    • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $120.86 following Saudi news before slipping under $120, Gold sank from over $1874 on Friday to $1852 now.
    • Bitcoin rallied from under $30K on Friday to trade at $31.2K now.
    • FX marketsEURUSD under 1.0725 again, USDJPY tested 131.00 brand holds 130.50, Cable trades over 1.2500, a no confidence vote in PM Johnson will take place later today by his own elected MPs.
    Overnight – CNY Caixin Services PMI missed significantly 41.4 vs. 46.1.

    Today – a light calendar with Holiday Closures in many parts of Europe and no econ. news scheduled for NA session. All eyes on RBA, ECB & US CPI data later this week.



    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (-0.44%). Rallies from sub 1.7300 on Friday to 1.7400 today following Johnson news. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & breaks 0 line, RSI 65 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0024, Daily ATR 0.0050.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head HF Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

    Comment


    • #17
      Date : 7th June 2022.

      Market Update – June 7 – RBA Surprises, Yields Rocket, Yen Dives.



      USD moved higher (USDIndex 102.78), Stocks also higher into close (NASDAQ 0.40%) but Futures rocked (-0.60%) by a surprise 50 bps hike from the RBA (25-40 bp expected) and noises that there will be more to come. Yields rallied (US 10yr over 3.00%), Asian markets have mostly slipped, (Nikkei +0.10%) and YEN has tanked (USDJPY at new 20-year high). UK PM Johnson survives no confidence vote (211 vs 118) 41.2% of his own MPs want him out UK Gilts rally GBP sinks. Oil slips but holds on to gains, Gold pressured by rising yields.
      • USDIndex rallied to 102.82 ahead of ECB on Thursday & US CPI on Friday.
      • EquitiesUSA500 -12 (-0.31%) at 4121, US500FUTS at 4096 now. More worries, following aggressive RBA, TWTR -1.5% after MUSK suggested he could walk away from the deal, AMZN +2% after 20 for 1 stock split. DIDI +23% & BABA +6%, Chinese regulators are reported to have concluded DIDI investigation.
      • Yields 10-year yield higher (2.987% at close), trades at 3.064% now.
      • Oil & Gold had weaker sessions – USOil slipped from $120.00 handle to $119.36, Gold sank as Yields rallied from over $1858 to $1840 now.
      • Bitcoin rally over $30K was short lived, from $31.8K yesterday to trade at $29.4K now.
      • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.0680, under 1.0700 again, USDJPY tested 133.00 zone and holds 132.60, Cable trades down at 1.2430,following political upheaval in UK.
      Overnight – Mixed data from Japan, Weak UK Housing data and German factory orders missed significantly (-2.7% vs -0.4%)

      Today – UK Composite/Services PMI (Final), Canadian Trade Balance



      Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.67%). Rallies to new 20-yr highs and within a smidge of 133.00 from sub 130.00 on Friday. Next key resistance 134.00 form the Weekly Chart. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive, RSI 77, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.233, Daily ATR 1.18.

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

      Stuart Cowell
      Head HF Market Analyst
      HFMarkets

      Disclaimer:
      This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

      Comment


      • #18
        Date : 8th June 2022.

        Market Update – June 8 – Wait & See Mode Ahead of US Inflation.




        USD moved lower at close but is currently retaking the 102.50 level. Stocks also higher into close (NASDAQ over 1%) on retailers and energy stocks, Yields cooled (10yr below 3%), Oil rallied over 1% to 13-week high on tight supply from private inventories. Yellen persistent high inflation “Unacceptable”. Demand for the safety of Treasuries picked up after the World Bank slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9% for 2022, warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries now face recession. In Asia, a rally in Chinese tech stocks that followed a batch of game approvals helped to keep stock market sentiment supported overnight, and the Hang Seng has gained nearly 2% so far. The CSI 300 is up 0.4%, while ASX and Nikkei lifted 0.4% and 1.0% respectively.

        Overnight – JPY GDP beat (-0.1% vs. -0.3%) & Economic Watchers Sentiment better (54.0 vs 51.9), CHF Unemployment in line (2.2%) but German Industrial Production missed significantly (0.7% vs 1.3%).
        • USDIndex dipped to 102.24 after Target Corp warned about excess inventory and said it would cut prices, offering some relief to those who think inflation may be peaking.
        • EquitiesCSI 300 is up 0.4%, while ASX and Nikkei lifted 0.4% and 1.0% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
        • Yields 10-year yield below the 3% mark helped extend the drop in yields.
        • USOIL spiked to $120.35 low oil inventories, Goldman Sacks – “we now forecast that Brent prices will need to average $135/bbl in 2H22-1H23 (up $10/bbl vs. prior forecast) for inventories to finally normalize by late 2023, the binding constraint to prices in our view. This represents summer retail prices reaching levels normally associated with $160/bbl crude prices”. The CEO of global commodities trader Trafigura said oil prices could soon hit $150 a barrel and go higher this year, with demand destruction likely by the end of the year.
        • Bitcoin down to $30320 area now.
        • FX marketsUSD is continuing its ascent and USDJPY is above 133.53. EURUSD is slightly below 1.07 and Cable is at 1.2560.
        Today – EU GDP and Employment change, US Wholesale Inventories and EIA Crude Oil Stocks change.





        Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Sugar (-3%). Dipped below 20- and 50-day SMA. Next key support at 18.60 from the Weekly Chart. H1 MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram sharply down, RSI 24, OS & declining, H1 ATR 0.12, Daily ATR 0.38.

        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

        Andria Pichidi
        Market Analyst
        HFMarkets

        Disclaimer:
        This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

        Comment


        • #19
          Date : 9th June 2022.

          Market Update – June 9 – European Futures Down Ahead of ECB.




          USDIndex steady at 102.50 but overall USD on bid. Stocks traded mostly lower, with China bourses hit by news suggesting that virus restrictions in part of Shanghai are already being tightened again amid a rise in case numbers, shortly after Covid lockdowns were lifted. Shanghai will lock down the Minhang district on Saturday morning for mass COVID-19 testing, according to Bloomberg. Hang Seng -0.9%, US stocks closed down over 1% (INTEL -5.28%), Yields back up (10-yr over 3% again), JPY pressured, Brent & WTI rose over 2.5% on tight supply and China opening up. Yellen says some China tariffs still warranted. Bonds are under pressure, with a 6 bp jump in Australia leading the way overnight.

          OvernightChina trade surplus widened as exports rebound.
          • USDIndex dipped to 102.24.
          • EquitiesHang Seng and CSI300 are currently down -0.9% and -0.8% respectively. JPN225 moved sideways, but the ASX lost 1.5%. GER40 and UK100 are both down -0.6% and US futures are also in the red. USA500 finished off -1.08%, while the USA30 was off -0.81% and the USA100 was -0.73% lower.
          • Intel rethinks near-term spending plans amid economic uncertainty – freezes some hiring.
          • Yields 10-year rose over 6 bps to test 3.045%. The 2-year was 4 bps higher at 2.77%. The 10-year Bund yield is up 0.4 bp at 1.35%.
          • USOIL up to $123.13 after stronger-than-expected Chinese exports in May, but found a ceiling amid new Shanghai lockdown restrictions. Gold weaker again below 1850.
          • NATGAS futures jump 25% this morning on US LNG outage.
          • FX marketsYen found some support in the near term. USDJPY is above 133.90. EURUSD found some buyers ahead of the ECB meeting, leaving EURUSD at 1.0712, while Cable dropped to 1.2516 and Sterling also declined against the EUR. Turkish lira slid to beyond 17.2.
          Today – ECB Rate Decision and Statement and US jobless claims.

          ECB Preview: Markets are eagerly awaiting today’s press conference. Rate settings are expected to be held steady for now, and while there are some members who see the urgency to act sooner rather than later as inflation goes through the roof, the ECB’s timetable for the phasing out of stimulus effectively excludes a move on rates this week. Net asset purchases need to end first and Lagarde is expected to confirm that this will happen early in July, which would pave the way for a rate hike in July. Lagarde has already mapped out two moves in July and September and the basic scenario is for “gradual” 25 bp steps, although the discussion on a bolder kick off with a 50 bp boost in July has already started. We suspect that Lagarde will stick with a focus on “gradualism” for now. But she will not rule out a 50 bp step as the need to maintain credibility and assert the Bank’s commitment to price stability and the 2% inflation target seem increasingly urgent.



          Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Platinum (-1.92%). Next key support at 970.00. H1 MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram sharply down, RSI 28, OS & declining, H1 ATR 3.91, Daily ATR 24.51.

          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

          Andria Pichidi
          Market Analyst
          HFMarkets

          Disclaimer:
          This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

          Comment


          • #20

            Date : 10th June 2022.

            Market Update – June 10 – Stocks Tank & Yields Rise ahead of US CPI.




            USD moved higher (USDIndex 103.10), Stocks TANKED into close (NASDAQ -2.75%, Dow -600 pts & S&P close to -100 pts) Futures steady. ECB cut growth and raised inflation forecasts, confirmed end of PEPP and 25bp rate hike in July (some wanted 50bp) & 25bp in Sept. (the caution weighed on EUR). Yields rallied (US 5yr & 10yr back over 3.00%, 2yr at 2.84%), Asian markets have mostly slipped, (Nikkei -1.49%). Yellen inflation a serious problem “what I am focused on”. Goldmans & Deutsche now expect 2 x 50bp hikes from ECB in Sept & Oct and RTS poll sees the same from FED (bring it to 4 x 50bp hikes). Oil slips but holds on to gains, Gold remains pressured by rising yields. NZD bid overnight.

            • USDIndex rallied to 103.33 apost ECB and ahead of US CPI today.
            • EquitiesUSA500 -98 (-2.38%) at 4017, US500FUTS at 4025 now. AMZN –4% BABA +-8.13%, NFLX -4.96%, APPL -3.60% GOOGL -2%, MRNA -9.76%
            • Yields 10-year yield higher (3.064% at close), trades at 3.055% now.
            • Oil & Gold had weaker sessions – USOil slipped but holds over $120.00 handle, Gold sank as Yields rallied from over $1855 to $1845 now.
            • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $30K.
            • FX marketsEURUSD down at 1.0630, from a spike to 1.0770, USDJPY tested 134.50 zone (24-yr high) and holds 134.00, Cable trades down at 1.2500, from 1.2550.
            Overnight – PPI in Japan missed (9.1% vs 9.9%) but remains high, China CPI missed (2.1% vs 2.2%) & PPI in line 6.4% & down from 8% last month (Shanghai lockdowns)

            Today – US CPI, Canadian Jobs Report, US University of Michigan (Prelim.) & Speech from ECB’s Lagarde.



            Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.54%). Moves higher from 0.6380 to 0.6420, as NZD gets a bid in the Asian session. Next key resistance 0.6450. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but turning higher, RSI 54 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0068.

            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

            Stuart Cowell
            Head Market Analyst
            HFMarkets

            Disclaimer:
            This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

            Comment


            • #21
              Date : 14th June 2022.

              Market Update – June 14 – Is the ugly Monday over?



              USD spiked (USDIndex 105.10), Stocks plummeted once again (NASDAQ -4.68%, Dow -800pts & S&P close to -151pts). Friday’s hot CPI report; low consumer sentiment; stagflation worries continued; and global uncertainty over how hard the FOMC will have to slam on the brakes to slow demand and bring down inflation. Yields higher on fears of aggressive interest rate hikes would push the world’s largest economy into recession (US 5yr & 10yr back over 3.57% & 3.48%, 2yr at 3.33%). Asian markets have sold off in catch up trade, (Nikkei -1.30%). Oil up, Gold remains pressured by rising yields.

              • USDIndex rallied to 105.10.
              • EquitiesHang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 1.0% and 0.8%, while a 1.6% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
              • Oil & Gold had weaker sessions – USOil struggles to break $122.00 handle, Gold is slumped on the Fed outlook and the strength in the USD, to $1809.
              • Bitcoin TANKED to $20,796. – Major cryptocurrency lending company Celsius Network’s freezing of withdrawals delivered the latest jolt to investors in the asset-class.
              • FX marketsEURUSD down at 1.0458, USDJPY tested 135 zone, Cable trades up at 1.2200, from 1.2120.
              Overnight – ILO unemployment rate jumped to 3.8%. German HICP inflation was confirmed at 8.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number. The national CPI rate stood at 7.9% and inflation is at the highest level since 1973, during the first oil price crisis. Chaoyang kicked off a three-day mass testing campaign among its roughly 3.5 million residents.

              Today – German ZEW, US PPI and ECB’s Schnabel speech.



              Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) BTCUSD (-7.02%). Drifts to 20781. Next key resistance is at 2017 peak, 19470. Intraday, MAs flattened, MACD histogram negative, RSI 23 but rising, indicating some temporary bounce but overall downtrend.

              Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

              Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


              Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

              Andria Pichidi
              Market Analyst
              HFMarkets

              Disclaimer:
              This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

              Comment


              • #22
                Date : 15th June 2022.

                Market Update – June 15.



                USD down (USDIndex 104.70), Stocks mixed (NASDAQ +0.18%, Dow -0.5% & S&P -0.38%). A boost to Australia’s minimum wage and RBA pledge to do what is necessary to meet the inflation target fueled the jump in yields. Expectations are now for 50 bp hikes in July as well as September and Australia’s curve shifted more than 20 bp higher today. – Yields extended higher as dip buyers have thrown in the towel for now, leaving sellers in control as the market adjusts to the potential for a very hawkish FOMC. (US 5yr & 7yr rates up to 3.606% and 3.59%, 2yr at 3.43%). US PPI increased 0.8% in May and the core rose 0.5% – bearish for the markets. ECB to hold emergency meeting “to discuss current market conditions”. A Bloomberg source story yesterday suggested that the ECB remains tight lipped on new plan to keep spreads in.
                Against a backdrop of sky-high inflation, rising rates, and growing recession concerns, the S&P 500 has had its worst start to the year since 1962,” noted analysts at Goldman Sachs.
                • USDIndex pulled back to 104.78.
                • Υields have extended higher, at the highest rates in well over a decade. The 10-year cheapened over 12 bp to 3.488%, not seen since the spring of 2011.
                • Equities – Nikkei and ASX lost a further 0.9% and 1.3% respectively. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.6% and 2.7%.
                • Oil drifted to 116.55 before settling at 119.58 – amid FED and reports that US Senate Finance Committee chair Ron Wyden plans to introduce legislation setting a 21% surtax on oil company profits considered excessive.
                • Golds near its lowest area in a month, now at $1,820.
                • Bitcoin steady above $20K.
                • BOJ offers to buy unlimited sum of JGBs with 7 years left until maturity.
                • FX marketsEURUSD rebounded to 1.0498 from 1.0396, USDJPY back below 135 zone, Cable settled at 1.2040.
                Today – The focus will be on the ECB meeting but also on the dot plot and the terminal rate, as well as how Chair Powell assesses the outlooks of inflation, growth, and the labor market.



                Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDIndex (-0.35%) down to 50-hour SMA, 104.72. Intraday, MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram neutral, RSI 41 & sloping. H1 ATR at 0.14 & Daily ATR at 0.79.

                Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                Andria Pichidi
                Market Analyst
                HFMarkets

                Disclaimer:
                This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Date : 16th June 2022.

                  Market Update – June 16 – Its all about the Banks.



                  FOMC hiked rates 75 bps, 10-1 vote; further increases likely appropriate. USD supported (USDIndex 104.80), Stocks higher despite Fed (NASDAQ +2.5%, Dow 1.4% & S&P +2%). Despite the Fed effecting the biggest increase in interest rates in 28 years, bonds and stocks rallied hard, underpinned by the fact Chair Powell said the 75 bps was an unusual move and would not be a common action, noting further hikes would be 50 bps or 75 bps. After hitting multi-month lows earlier this week, most regional currencies firmed on Thursday after US Bond Yields and the USD retreated from multi-year highs a day earlier as investors welcomed the Fed’s decision. It is clear that the Fed’s move will keep stagflation concerns alive. Asian markets traded mixed and US futures have pared earlier gains.
                  • USDIndex held above 104.40.
                  • Υields 10-year Treasury yield climbed 1.5 bp to 3.3% while Australia’s bonds also moved up.
                  • EquitiesGER40 and UK100 futures are mixed with the UK100 down -0.2% ahead of the BoE decision, the GER40 up 0.3%.
                  • Oil settled to 115.76 after a steep drop, supported by tight oil supply (100k b/d highest since April 2020) and peak summer consumption, after the Fed sparked fears of slower economic growth and less fuel demand.
                  • Golds at $1830 – safe-haven demand & inflationary hedge buying VS a higher interest rate.
                  • Bitcoin down to $20,157.
                  • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.0409, USDJPY back above 134, Cable down at 1.2100 ahead of BoE.
                  BoE Preview: The BoE is still set to deliver another 25 bps rate hike this week, but stagflation risks are looking nowhere as serious as in the UK That should prevent the central bank from joining the “50 bp club” of central banks, but for now is unlikely to stop the BoE from sticking to the tightening path. The statement may sound somewhat more cautious now. Even the BoE’s own scenario suggests a technical recession next year and the latest batch of forecasts from the OECD and others highlight that the economy is under-performing, with the fallout from Brexit, the sanctions against Russia, and political turmoil all weighing on the growth outlook. PM Johnson managed to survive a confidence vote last week, but many feel that his days are numbered. Even within his own party the threat to unilaterally step back from the Northern Ireland protocol is not very popular and rather than uniting the nation behind Brexit, the government is facing an increasingly fragmented union. Nevertheless, with inflation running far above target, the BoE has little choice but to lift rates further for now, especially as house price inflation is also still running at double digits, and wage growth is picking up in tight markets.



                  Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPUSD (-0.84%) down to 1.20 area again. Intraday, MAs bearishly crossed, MACD histogram declines but holds above 0, RSI 40 & sloping. H1 ATR at 0.00377 & Daily ATR at 0.01434.

                  Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                  Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                  Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                  Andria Pichidi
                  Market Analyst
                  HFMarkets

                  Disclaimer:
                  This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Date : 17th June 2022.

                    Market Update – June 17 – Deeply underwater.



                    USD drifted (USDIndex 103.15) thanks to the hawkish SNB and BoE, and the potential for a shift from the BoJ. However, the BoJ eventually left policy on hold & maintained its ultra-low rate settings today, despite looking increasingly like the odd one out. Yen sinks. Stocks were crushed, hit by the surge in yields (NASDAQ -4.4%, Dow -2.4% & S&P -3.25%). Weakness in tech also weighed on USA100. VIX rose to an intraday high of 34.43, but dipped to 33.44 late in the day, versus Wednesday’s 29.62. Treasuries are rallying and yields are now richer (2-year declined to 3.10%, 10-year at 3.25%. They were as high as 3.39% and 3.49% on the day). European leaders back Ukraine’s bid to apply for EU membership.
                      • US mortgage rate surged 55 bps to 5.78%, the biggest weekly jump since 1987.
                      • US housing starts plunged -14.4% to 1.549 mln in May, permits fell to 1.695 mln.
                      • US Philly Fed index dropped to -3.3 in June, 6-month outlook fell to -6.8.
                      • US initial jobless claims slid -3k to 229k in June 11 week.
                    • USDIndex rebounded to 104.25 from 103.15.
                    • Υields 10-year climbed 5.5 bp to 3.25%.
                    • Equities – Nikkei and ASX lost -1.8% today. Elon Musk hints at layoffs in first meeting with Twitter employees.
                    • Oil settled at 117.50 – Oil set for weekly loss as traders weigh monetary tightening, although persisting supply tightness and new sanctions on Iran limited the downside.
                    • Gold retested $1856, currently lower at $1845. Platinum and palladium also set for weekly drops.
                    • Bitcoin steadily lower at $20k area.
                    • Interest rate differentials between Japan and the US will continue to widen, which will keep pressure on the Yen, which at the start of the week was at the lowest level since 1998.
                    • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.0505, USDJPY back above 134.67, Cable at 1.2257 from 1.2405 highs.
                    • Today: BoE Pill & Tenreyro speeches, EU HICP & Fed Chair Powell speech.


                    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+1.54%) breaks 2013 peak. Intraday, MAs aligned higher, MACD lines extending northwards, RSI 76 & rising. ATR(H1) 0.0524 & ATR(D) at 1.506.

                    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                    Andria Pichidi
                    Market Analyst
                    HFMarkets

                    Disclaimer:
                    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Date : 21st June 2022.

                      Market Update – Stocks & Yields Lift for Summer Solstice.



                      USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.16), Stocks closed higher in Europe (DAX +1.01%, FTSE100 +1.50%) & Asian shares opened over 1% higher and closed positively (Nikkei +2.09%) US Futures +1.15%. Yields rallied (US 10yr 3.2976%). Oil ticks 2% higher, lifting CAD pairs, after Fridays sell-off and Gold & BTC slide sideways. Yellen talks of a “price cap” and “tax” for Russian oil exports and a tax “holiday” for gasoline in US to ease inflation. (Ruble @ 15 mth high). Japan PM Kishida & FM Suzuki: Rapid yen weakening is a source of concern. RBA’s Lowe rates need to go higher in low unemployment high inflation Australia.

                      Week Ahead – Will be dominated by Central Bank Speak topped by FED Chair Powell’s 2-day testimony to Congress. CPI & PMI data also due this week.
                      • USDIndex tested 104.00 on Monday and holds at 104.15 today.
                      • EquitiesUSA500 closed yesterday (Friday 3674), US500FUTS at 3725 now.
                      • Yields 10-year yield higher , trades at 3.29% now.
                      • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil recovered over 2% to trade at $110.20. Gold could not hold $1840 and trades at $1835 now.
                      • Bitcoin pivots off $20K, to test $21K now.
                      • FX marketsEURUSD holds at 1.0525, USDJPY holds over 135.00 zone shy of 24-yr high 135.50 and Cable trades up 20 pips to 1.2260.
                      Overnight – Goldman Sachs – US recession in the next year, @30% (was 15%)



                      Today – Canadian Retail Sales, US Existing Home Sales, New Zealand Trade Balance, Speeches from ECB’s Rehn, Fed’s Barkin & Mester.



                      Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.30%). Continues to move higher from 101.65 test on Thursday to 104.50, as Oil recovers from sell-off. Next key resistance 104.75 & 105.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & turning higher, RSI 71 ,OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 1.343.

                      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                      Stuart Cowell
                      Head Market Analyst
                      HFMarkets

                      Disclaimer:
                      This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Date : 22nd June 2022.

                        Market Update – June 22 – Stocks rally, USD & Yields hold, Oil & Yen sink.



                        USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.51), Stocks closed up over 2% (NASDAQ +2.51%) – (1) dead cat bounce & another bear market rally or (2) signs of peak inflation and peak Fed bearishness ? (Technicals & Fundamentals still say 1). Asian shares closed lower on rapid spread of new Omicron (Hang Seng -1.49%) Yields rheld their gains. Oil also slumped (Brent -3.42%) Gold & BTC slide sideways. Biden expected to announce temp. tax reprieve on gasoline, BOJ Mins confirmed they will ease further if necessary “without hesitation” USDJPY hits new 24-year high. NZD hit by weak trade data.

                        • USDIndex tested 103.72 on Tuesday before rallying to 104.55 now.
                        • EquitiesUSA500 closed +2.45% (3764), US500FUTS slumped to 3719 now.
                        • Yields 10-year yield higher, closed at 3.26% , trades at 3.29% now.
                        • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil slumped 3% to trade at $104.90. Biden & Omicron news weighed & Gold could not hold $1830 and trades at $1825 now on higher Yields and stronger USD.
                        • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, test $22K yesterday, back to $20K now.
                        • FX marketsEURUSD hback under 1.0500, USDJPY hit new 24-yr highs at 136.71 and Cable trades down to 1.2225 now, following Inflation news, from 1.2325 highs yesterday.
                        Overnight – UK CPI hits 9.1% inline but up from 9.0% last month, CORE a tick lighter at 5.9% vs 6.0% & 6.2%, PPI beat 2.1% vs 1.8% & 2.7% prior and RPI also hotter at 11.7% vs 11.4% & 11.1% last time. NZ Trade Balance less than 50% of forecast at . Reuters Poll Fed Path: 75bp July, 50bp Sept & Oct, and 25bp Nov. (at the earliest). Japanese official – FX moves against the Yen “not ideal”

                        Today – Canadian CPI, EZ Consumer Confidence, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Evans & Harker, SNB’s Jordan ECB’s de Guindos & Elderson, BoC’s Rogers.



                        Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.18%). Collapsed from test of 0.6360 on Monday & Tuesday to 0.6250, as NZD Trade Balance missed significantly. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative turning lower, RSI 21.25, OS but still falling, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00850.

                        Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                        Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                        Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                        Stuart Cowell
                        Head Market Analyst
                        HFMarkets

                        Disclaimer:
                        This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Date : 23rd June 2022.

                          Market Update – June 23 – USD & Yields slip, Oil down post Powell.



                          USD slips from highs (USDIndex 103.80), Stocks closed flat (NASDAQ & DJIA -0.15%) Yields tanked (-4%) after Powell said FED were “strongly committed” to the inflation fight and that recession was “certainly possible”. Asian shares mixed (Hang Seng +1.64%, Nikkei +0.8%, Kospi -0.7%) Oil slumped another -2% and Gold & BTC slide sideways. Biden announced tax reprieve on gasoline, but is under increasing political pressure, Johnson faces two more by-election defeats today & national rail strikes on-going, (6th Anniversary of Brexit vote) and Scholz fears gas line shutdown and unable to speak with Putin. USDJPY cooled from new 24-year high as JPY outperformed in Asian session.
                          • USDIndex tested 103.60 yesterday before recovering to 104.00 now.
                          • EquitiesUSA500 closed -4.9 (3759), US500FUTS lower at 3756 now.
                          • Yields 10-year yield higher, closed down -479% at 3.156% , trades at 3.18% now.
                          • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil slumped 2.2% to trade under $102 yesterday following Biden & Powell, back to $104.80 now. Gold spiked to $1845 and trades at $1834 now on weaker Yields and USD.
                          • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, trades at $20.5K now.
                          • FX marketsEURUSD tested 106.00 yesterday back to 1.0560, USDJPY cooled from 136.71 yesterday to test 135.00 earlier & back to 135.83 now. Cable trades down to 1.2230 now from rally to 1.2330 yesterday .
                          Overnight – Japanese Manu PMI – miss (52.7 vs 53.5) UK Public sector borrowing hit £14bn last month, the third-highest May since 1993, and worse than the expected £11.6bn.

                          Today – EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Initial Claims, Policy Announcements from Norges Bank, CBRT & Banxico, US Bank Stress Test Results, Fed’s Chair Powell Speaks at the House Finance Committee.



                          Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%). JPY out performs today with safe haven bid. Rallied from 93.20 earlier to 93.70, next resistance the significant 94.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative & still turning lower, RSI 42.45, and rising, H1 ATR 0.278, Daily ATR 1.49.

                          Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                          Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                          Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                          Stuart Cowell
                          Head Market Analyst
                          HFMarkets

                          Disclaimer:
                          This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Date : 24th June 2022.

                            Market Update – June 24 – USD & Yields slips, Stocks tick higher.



                            USD slips from highs (USDIndex 104.00), Stocks closed higher (NASDAQ +1.62%) Yields slipped again (-1.66%) after no new news from Powell. Asian shares stronger (Hang Seng +2.24%, Nikkei +1.23%) Oil holds at lows, Gold dipped & BTC picked up. Ukraine gained EU candidacy status. UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives lost the two by-elections, triggering resignation of Party Chairman Dowden. European Futs +1.0%. USDJPY cooled further as NZD & AUD outperformed in Asian session.
                            • USDIndex tested 104.50 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now.
                            • EquitiesUSA500 closed +35 (3795), US500FUTS higher at 3824 now.
                            • Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 3.133% , trades at 3.018% now.
                            • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $106.80 before slipping back to $104.50 now. Gold spiked to $1845 again but trades at $1822 now on weaker Yields and USD.
                            • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, trades at $20.7k now from a test of 21k.
                            • FX MarketsEURUSD tested 1.0500 yesterday now back to 1.0536, USDJPY cooled again to 134.60 now. Cable trades at 1.2270 now, from lows at 1.2170 yesterday, despite by-election results and weak Retail Sales data, UK recession risks are stacking up.
                            Overnight – Japanese Core CPI inline & unchanged (2.1%) SPPI hotter (1.8%) UK Retail Sales a tick better than expected (-0.5% vs -0.6%) but down significantly from 1.4% last month.

                            Today – German Ifo, US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Daly, ECB’s de Cos, BoE’s Pill,



                            Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.49%). NZD out performed today. Rallied from 0.62500 test yesterday to 0.6300 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 56.58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00843.

                            Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

                            Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


                            Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

                            Stuart Cowell
                            Head Market Analyst
                            HFMarkets

                            Disclaimer:
                            This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

                            Comment

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