US 500 forecast: the index resumed growth but correction risk remains high
US 500 has shifted into an uptrend, but the likelihood of a slight pullback remains high. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.
US 500 forecast: key trading points
Recent data: US manufacturing PMI for November came in at 52.2
Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the equity market
Fundamental analysis
The US manufacturing PMI in the latest release came in at 52.2 points versus a forecast of 51.9 and the previous reading of 52.5. This means the manufacturing sector remains in expansion territory (readings above 50.0 indicate growth), but the pace of expansion slowed slightly compared to the previous month. At the same time, the higher-than-expected reading suggests that business conditions are somewhat better than the market anticipated.
For the US 500, the impact is cautiously positive. Since the index includes industrial, technology, and consumer companies, a moderately strong PMI supports the soft landing narrative: the economy continues to grow, but without excessive acceleration that could force the Fed back into tightening. Within the index, stocks of real-sector companies sensitive to manufacturing activity may perform slightly better under such conditions.
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