Naked charts with trendlines only

Hi all, instead of restarting my daily signals thread ihave decided to start a new technical analysis thread that we can all hopefully benefit from.

The idea behind this thread will be naked charts with trendlines only. No indicators of any kind will be used for determining the trend, our trendlines will do that for us. Fibonacci and RSI may be used on the daily charts only. IF fibo is used, trades will always be at the 61.8% never the 50% or 38.2%. Regardless of fibo, pending orders will be used alot which will make following any trades easier for other people, but they will not be used exclusively.

I have setup a new demo account which can be monitored here -> [highlight]http://www.mt4i.com/users/pipstealer/[/highlight] the ftp update will be running 24/7 the broker is [highlight]http://www.vantagefx.com/[/highlight] which is an Australian broker i am currently testing out, only thing is the currency on the demo can only be in USD. Money management is a maximum of 10% exposure at any given time and a minimum 1:2 risk:reward per trade, if this is not possible no trade is entered. Account is $1k in size and lotsize will be limited to 0.02 at maximum per trade,

WE DO NOT ADD TO LOOSING POSITIONS AT ANY STAGE.

I will be posting charts before the markets open every sunday with what i think might be good breakouts to watchout for, I will update the charts daily as i have time and as price progresses towards breaking out. These trendlines will only be drawn on H1 or above, M30 or below will not be used here for any purposes. Daily trendlines will always be drawn and never ignored, they will override all other trendlines lower than it, a weekly will override the daily and monthly overrides weekly.

I will be avoiding what is to be considered high impact news and will be flat 30minutes before said news. Medium or low impact will be ignored. For a good economic calendar please use [highlight]http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar/[/highlight] rather than [highlight]http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar/[/highlight] the reason for this is FF often displays news as Tentative while DFX shows the actual time, i also feel FF displays some news as high impact when DFX displays it as low or medium at best. In my experience DFX is more accurate in defining the impact the news will have on the markets.

All pairs that i consider tradable due to trends / volatilty and spreads will be covered, which will be a maximum of 15 pairs at any given time, so plenty of potential.

Please be aware that if you decide to follow any of these setups at any stage with real money you accept responsibility for any and all trades placed on your account. Dont come crying if you loose money simply because the markets did what they wanted or you over leveraged your trade(s)

Name : MANUAL

Email : [email protected]

Login : 85843

Investor : yvsq5hv (read only password)

With that being said on with the show :)

ok so even though its not sunday i can start now i think, if anybody missed the eurusd boat, dont worry to much we have some other juicy setups just waiting to breakout.

Here is USD/CHF point on interest would be 1.06000 [ appologies if you are on 4 digit broker but i am not so all prices will be in 5 digits from here on ]

http://a.imageshack.us/img843/223/usdchfdaily12810.jpg

http://a.imageshack.us/img843/1603/usdchfh412810.jpg

long above 1.062 to agree with the eurusd decline

heres the daily GBPUSD trendline

http://a.imageshack.us/img266/1535/gbpusddaily12810.jpg

USDJPY DAILY - whats important to note here is the divergence appearing on the daily rsi, and we might be putting in for some sort of reversal as todays candle is looking like a doji

http://a.imageshack.us/img266/8930/usdjpy12810.jpg

so out of these charts i would only be looking to trade a usdjpy long if we get a reversal confirmation [ bullish morning star ]

i would put stoploss at the bottom of the doji if it is confirmed and look for atleast 1:2 risk:reward, probably higher though.

A break above 1.06200 for a usdchf long to confirm usdchf i would like to see a 4hour candle close above said price, with a stoploss 1.05700 - 50pips and aim for 1.07200 - 100pips for a 1:2 risk:reward

EURAUD DAILY - heres a juicy setup about to breakout very very soon i think :)

http://a.imageshack.us/img413/3379/eurauddaily12810.jpg

i favour the downside

stoploss 1.45500

takeprofit - double your entry to stoploss price

entering short euraud @ market price or 1.43283

stop 1.45500

profit 1.39000

lower than the lowest recorded low O_O lets see what happens :)

damn it i forgot to change the lotsize :|

and i just noted AUD unemployement news coming out in 5 hours, so i will look to breakeven here and change the lotsize

ok so we broke even after about a 20pip drawdown, but since i did not change the lotsize i deem this trade learning experiance to double check my settings :) anyway aud news in 4hours and 18minutes i will be posting a chart closer to the news with what i will be looking to do

heres a 4hourly chart of eurusd, using one of the top levels one might think about entering a short, since the eurusd has dropped so rapidly trendlines will hardly be of anyuse here and finding support and resistance will be of better value to find a reentry position, should one occur with a good risk:reward scenario.

http://a.imageshack.us/img217/763/eurusdh481210.gif

consider 1.2725 and 1.27 support

ok so 20mins until news time for aud, i will only be looking to get short should the result come out better than the expected, i wouldnt be surprised if we see a fairly large spike on this news release and i will look to get short above 0.9000, i wont enter there but if prices dont even come close then i will not trade.

here is a 4 hourly chart of audusd with some obvious support and resistance

http://a.imageshack.us/img217/1403/audusdh481210.gif

usdchf coming towards the end of its trendline, keep an eye on this one

http://a.imageshack.us/img217/6291/usdchfh481210.gif

nzdusd has broken through its daily trendline, one might wait for a bounce up before shorting ?

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/7775/nzdusdh481210.gif

EURJPY action here, missed this boat, but i still consider this pair to be range boune, look for rsi on the daily to hit oversold very soon, currently at 35

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/1184/eurjpyh481210.gif

usdcad daily triangle building up for a breakout

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/1659/usdcaddaily81210i.gif

gbpjpy triangle ready to breakout

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/4084/gbpjpydaily81210.gif

and gbpchf

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/1950/gbpchfdaily81210.gif

for interest sakes, here is an hourly chart of euraud, if i was a scalper of some kind i might be incliced to fade the rally since its so close to the top of the trendline? but im not a scalper so this might be bad advice i dont know :)

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/9725/euraudh181210k.gif

heres the daily again

http://a.imageshack.us/img413/3379/eurauddaily12810.jpg

after looking at the GBPUSD chart again i came to note that it had actually broken out of its trendline, here it the updated chart which i think is more accurate than than previous.

http://a.imageshack.us/img153/8388/gbpusddaily081210.gif

sundays postings will be all in 1 post rather than spread out like this, updates will be in single posts.

for people wanting some good trade potential scroll through the last 2 pages, these charts are all up to date as of 8/12/2010 :)

usdchf nearing a breakout, if somebody did take that euraud advice 2-3posts ago +70pips now :) i did not trade it though

http://a.imageshack.us/img266/1803/usdchf4h81210.gif

euraud with its +70pip move, look back 3-4posts :)

http://a.imageshack.us/img266/2241/euraudh1081210.gif

shame i was at work and missed the usdchf break :(

http://a.imageshack.us/img816/1267/usdchdfh4081210.gif

Thanks for trading with trendlines. I use MACD and RSI too.

I agree with all your great charts.

In regards to USDJPY I think it has a little more downward price action before changing direction.

See W1 support and MACD wide open.

Falling wedge is forming well on D1

http://img830.imageshack.us/img830/2357/usdjpy.jpg

yea i was looking for confirmation which still might appear since the doji formed, it was merely a possibility, most of thje setups i post are definately going to breakout, but which way is the million dollar question, i believe it is harder for a pair to reverse than continue on its current journey. ofcourse all trends come to an end at some stage and thats where these types of setups can help in catching the beginning of a new trend.

thanks for your input and i dont disagree with your analysis in usdjpy going down thats why on my daily chart i clearly marked a downward range it has been loosely sticking to, it seems to have formed a range within a range which you have illistrated above, however do not forget the rumours on BOJ intervention, remember a stronger yen hurts japans exports, which hurts the economy, which means at some stage should the yen become to strong the bank will have to intervene if the economy wants to survive, of course this is all hear say and speculation, but what is forex if not specualtion?

see below for bullish setup, if you want to get technical its a bullish morning star setup that might be appearing, and rsi still has not broken, should this setup materialize i will be going long at days end

http://a.imageshack.us/img291/9805/usdjpydaily081310.gif

ok so we did miss usdchf [ well i did but i hope some of you got the 50pip drop ? ] but i see something else developing on that chart.

http://a.imageshack.us/img291/6968/usdchfdaily081310h.gif

depending where the day ends i will get long if that lower line holds, this would also possibly help a eurusd short, but i will cover that later.

i will be looking to enter trade today at the days end for me which is 8am australian time, gmt+10

until then work time for me

ouch another one

http://a.imageshack.us/img291/9238/gbpchfdaily081310.gif

Ok here are my picks of the day that i will be watching very closely, or placing pending orders, i will be more specific as i continue

Firstly i like EURAUD for a breakout, it still sitting within its triangle formation and i will be placing a manual trade when this does indeed breakout one way or the other.

http://a.imageshack.us/img715/3079/eurauddaily081310.gif

Next i will be placing pending order to capture this GBPJPY breakout, but not just yet.

http://a.imageshack.us/img715/4258/gbpjpydaily81310.gif

Will GBPUSD find support at the botom of the previous trendline channel?

http://a.imageshack.us/img715/2425/gbpusddaily81310.gif

and finally i am going long USDJPY as the bullish morning star formation has been confirmed, and rsi is still showing clear divergence http://www.fxwords.com/images/words/bullish_morning_star.jpg

http://a.imageshack.us/img715/1530/usdjpydaily81310.gif

http://a.imageshack.us/img715/4707/usdjpydaily81310o.gif

ENTRY @ MARKET: 85.895

STOPLOSS: below doji, or 84.600 - 130pips

TAKEPROFIT1: 88.000 -210pips

TAKEPROFIT2: 88.500 - 260pips total, since i am only trading 0.01 lots i will simply be aiming for TP2

USDJPY not far from its first hurdle

http://a.imageshack.us/img844/1530/usdjpydaily81310.gif

EURJPY might be worth paying attention 2

http://a.imageshack.us/img261/8206/eurjpydaily81310.gif