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Generalized Forex Forecast for 09 - 13 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s predictions :

• As for the forecast for EUR/USD, this pair succeeded to meet expectations of all experts. All of their forecasts turned out to be correct - those, which predicted its rise (from Monday to Tuesday, the pair rose to the level of 1.1616), the ones which predicted its drop (the pair afterwards went down to support at 1.1385), and –the ones predicted its sideways trend - due to fluctuations the pair returned almost to the same level it had started the week from. Such a mixed behaviour of the pair, as noted above, was largely predetermined by the last week’s release of a series of economic data points of a different trend from Europe and the USA;
  
• as expected, these releases should influence the behaviour of virtually all USD pairs, and that did not allow analysts to reach a consensus particularly in regard to the future of GBP/USD. As a result, the pair largely made the same movement as EUR/USD, and, after rising earlier in the week, it showed a steady fall in the latter half of the week, returning to the benchmark for the whole year of 2016 - to support / resistance zone of around 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500;
  
• there was no consensus among experts about the future of USD/JPY either. As a result, the pair held onto the side channel, reflecting the behaviour of EUR/USD and wrapping up the week virtually at the same level of 107.00 whereat it had consolidated last week;
  
• as often happens, USD/CHF also tried to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD, but nonetheless it fully met expectations of both analysts and graphical analysis predicting its attempt to get closer to the level of 0.9800. The pair, however, failed to reach this high, but due to its impressive surge upward it got closer to the target and reached the mark of 0.9728.
  

Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• similar to the last week, the experts' opinions about future of EUR/USD are split almost equally - one third of analysts are for the rise of the pair to the zone of 1.1730 ÷ 1.1800, one third are for its fall towards the support of 1.1200, and another third - for a sideways trend with pivot point of 1.1400. The opinions about indicators are also split - 60% on H4 vote for the pair's fall, and 75% on D1 are for its rise. If we focus on the graphical analysis, there is a prevalence of bearish trends here, according to which the pair must first go down to the first support zone of 1.1340, and then, after breaking through it, move 100 points lower. The local bottom of the current month is at 1.1000, which should be followed by a return to the pivot point of February - May at the level of 1.1280;
  
• but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts (70%), as well as indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 unanimously vote for the continuation of its declining. Target is at 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a bounce upwards to the last week figures within 1.4430 ÷ 1.4500;
  
• USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the sideways movement of the pair within 105.50 ÷ 108.00. And, the pair is very likely to rise to the upper boundary of the range, bouncing off which it should make another attempt to break through the support of 105.50 and go down first to the zone of 104.00, and then to the lows of spring and summer of 2014 at the level of 102.00. However, such a movement can take from several weeks to a month;
  
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was - both 80% of experts and 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair striving to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. As already mentioned, the main resistance in this case will be at the level of 0.9900. The main support is 200 points lower - 0.9700.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 16 - 20 May 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week :

• if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, as it often happens,graphical analysis turned out to be the most accurate, having predicted the return of the pair to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280. It was that value - 1.1282 - that the pair reached on Friday and, after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, it completed the five-day period in the 1.1310 area;
  
• with regard to GBP/USD, having returned to the key support/resistance zone for the entire 2016, near 1.4400 - 1.4500, the pair fluctuated around Pivot Point 1.4440 for nearly the whole week. However, at the end of the week, it remembered that most analysts and all the tools of technical analysis had unanimously voted for continuation of its fall. As a result, denoting a bearish trend, the pair moved to the south and recorded the weekly low at 1.4340;
  
• forecast for USD/JPY turned out to be only partly true. It had been assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair should go up to the 108.00 resistance and it obediently did so. But then, instead of showing a rebound down, the pair broke this level and moved sideways in the 108.25 - 109.40 channel;
  
• predicting the behaviour of USD/CHF, the majority of experts together with technical and graphical analysis continued to insist on a quest of the pair to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair indeed made several desperate attempts to achieve this significant level, however, the maximum result, which it managed to achieve for the whole week, was the height of 0.9774, located just 26 points below the coveted height.
  

Forecast for the coming week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following :

• throughout May experts have not managed to form any consensus on the future of EUR/USD. The same thing happened this time: 45% of them with the support of 100% of indicators on H4 vote for pair falling to the level of 1.1200, 20% of analysts - for the sideways trend, and 35% - for the pair's growth to the height of 1.1380. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with the latter, its readings say that the pair must demonstrate a smooth rebound from the 1.1280 support. If we talk about a long-term forecast, the opinion of the majority of experts (70%) remains the same - reduction of pair to the zone 1.1000 - 1.1100;
  
• but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the outlook remains virtually the same as last week - a continuation of the pair's fall to the area 1.4250 - 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound to the 1.4500 resistance. With this agree both 65% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1;
  
• USD/JPY - here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair's movement in the sideways channel 107.00 -109.50 in the next few days. At this, the pair, with high probability, will demonstrate a bearish mood, which will result in an attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down to the lows of early May - in the area of 105.50 - 106.00;
  
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - 60% of the experts, 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 and 65% of indicators continue to insist that the pair should reach the level of 0.9800. At this graphical analysis on D1 warns that after a few days in this area, a strong rebound to the south may follow, as a result of which, as it happened in March and April, the pair will drop to the 2016 lower boundary of the sideways channel - to the zone 0.9500 - 0.9585. The nearest support is at the level of 0.9650.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 23 - 27 May 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast :

• as to the forecast for EUR/USD, last week there was no consensus in regards to its future. Surprisingly all predictions panned out. 35% of experts backed by graphical analysis reckoned that the pair would gradually bounce off the support of 1.1280 and move towards the resistance of 1.1380, and earlier this week the pair did went upwards and reached the mark of 1.1348. The other 45% of analysts voted for the pair’s fall to the level of 1.1200, which virtually happenedin the latter half of the week – the pair wrapped up the week fluctuating within the range of 1.1200 - 1.1230;
  
• as to GBP/USD, 65% of experts predicted the pair’s drop to the area of 1.4250 - 1.4300, following which a rebound to the support of 1.4500 should occur. However the pair decided to jump the gun and after declining only to the level of 1.4330 it soared and reached the high of 1.4500, then it made a second breakthrough heaving upwards by further 165 points, following which it returned to 1.4500 - the target level of experts. By the way, it’s interesting to look at M1 charts of different brokers for this pair: in the last minute of the week session we may see a candle moving down to the mark of 1.4487on some brokers’ charts, and some brokers’ chartsvice versa show a candle moving up to 1.4513. As to NordFX quotes, they ended the week at the level of 1.4490;
  
• in the last minute of the session similar various readings were seen in regards to USD/JPY. As to the forecast for this pair, it turned out to be only partly correct. Earlier in the week the pair was expected to move in a sideway channel of 107.00 - 109.50, and it did so. But then, instead of rebounding downwards, the pair, supported by news from the USA, broke the resistance of 109.50 and transited into sideways movement within the range of 109.70 - 110.50;
  
• predicting the way USD/CHF would act, the majority of experts along with technical analysis continued to insist on the pair’s attempt to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. And that forecast was 100% fulfilled – in the middle of the week the pair reached this benchmark level and went further upwards – to the high of 0.9922. As to the end of the week, it became a focus of attention due to plunging of quotes of several brokers by 15 – 20 points during last minutes of the session.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• predicting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of experts backed by 75% of indicators insist on continuation of a descending trend for this pair. They reckon that the pair should fall at least to the level of 1.1100, and it even may go down further100 points. As forthe other experts and graphical analysis, according to their opinion the pair had already reached a local bottomand thus its upwards rebound to the area of 1.1300 - 1.1330 should happen;
  
• as to the behaviourof GBP/USD, the technical and graphical analysis on D1 concurs and elaborates that the pair would continue its movement in anascending channel, which had started late February this year. According to this forecast, backed by 65% of experts, the pair wouldinsistently try to reach the high of 1.1500, however this movement may take up to several weeks. As to the shorter-term forecast, the experts do not rule out the chance that the level of 1.4500 may turn from support into resistance for a while (pay attention to divergence of quotes when the last session had been closed). If this scenario plays out, then the key support will be 1.1440, and the next support - 1.4325;
  
• USD/JPY - here, according to the majority of experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair moving in the sideway channel alongside pivot point of 109.00 within next days. The main support will be at 107.70, resistance – at 111.00;
  
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was – as it was mentioned in previous reviews, the pair may stick to the side channel for a while, with the support of 0.9800 and the resistance level within 0.9900 - 0.9920, whereafter it should go south to the support of 0.9700.Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 shows that afterwards it may again return to the benchmark level of 0.9800 bouncing off which it may plunge down to the mark of 0.9500, this movement may take up to 3 weeks.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast, which may be considered as 100% fulfilled :

• as to the forecast for EUR/USD, the majority of experts and indicators insisted that it should go down at least to the level of 1.1100, which the pair did, wrapping up the week just10 points higher – at the mark of 1.1110;
  
• as to the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, technical and graphical analysis concurred and elaborated that the pair would continue moving in an ascending channel, which had started as early as this February. According to this forecast, supported by 65% of experts, the high of 1.1500 is the ultimate target of this pair. Therewith earlier this week, there were doubts as to the way the level of 1.4500 would play out whether as a local support or resistance. Eventually these doubts panned out, during Monday the pair had been fluctuating, at one moment moving above this line, at another – dropping below it, but then on Tuesday it steadily heaved, gaining 300 points and reaching the high of 1.4740 by Thursday;
  
• making forecast for USD/JPY, both experts and technical analysis expected the pair to move in a sideways channel alongside the pivot point of 109.00. This forecast may be considered as fulfilled – the pair finished the week at the same level it had started from. However its fluctuations appeared to be so marginal, that it failed to fall below the abovementioned level of 109.00, which eventually acted as the support for it;
  
• the forecast for USD/CHF also suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support within 0.9900 - 0.9920, which proved to be correct. Only on Friday evening, following the speech of the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen and finding almost no resistance, the pair could stall just above the said zone and ended the week at the level of 0.9945.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• as to the future of EUR/USD, 80% of experts and 95% of indicators insist that the pair hasn’t reached the local low in the area of 1.1000yet. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 points out that before going south, the price may tick up: the first resistance will be at 1.1170, the next one - at 1.1240. When the pair hits its bottom at the level of 1.1000, a mighty upwards bounce may follow, as a result of which it will rise above the mark of 1.1300;
  
• as to the medium-term acting of GBP/USD, 70% of analysts and indicators on D1 concur and elaborate that the uptrend will continue. The nearest resistance level will be at 1.4800. With this, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, early in the week the pair may go down to the support of 1.4500 and only then it may start moving upwards;
  
• as to the future of USD/JPY, bullish sentiment predominates among the indicators. Experts’ opinions are split almost equally: 35% vote for the pair’s rise, 35% - for its fall. The remaining 30% predict continuation of its sideways trend, which, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, is the most probable scenario. The first support will be at 109.40, the next support will be at 108.50, the main resistance will be in the area of 111.00;
  
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a clear difference of experts’ opinions and the graphical analysis. The former ones (85%), fully backed by indicators, reckon that the pair will make attempts to reach the benchmark level of 1.0000. As to the graphical analysis, it predicts that the pair will rebound downwards and return to the zone of 0.9700, followed by a short-term upward movement to the resistance of 0.9800 and a deeper decline to the support of 0.9500. The graphical analysis allocates between 3 and 4 weeks for implementation of this scenario.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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We are pleased to introduce our customers and partners to NordFX CY (NFX Capital CY Ltd.), a constituent company in the NordFX group.

NordFX CY (NFX Capital CY Ltd.) holds one of the most recognized certifications in the world of finance – a license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). The license clearly attests to the top level of the services provided by NordFX, the group including NordFX CY, and allows the company to considerably expand its presence in the European Union.

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Generalized Forex Forecast for 6 – 10 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast :

• the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that the pair might first rise to the level of 1.1170, and then – even up to 1.1240, following which it would reverse and start going south. This scenario also considered the fact that according to manyauthoritative sources the key indicator of economic situation in the USA – Nonfarm payrolls (Nonfarm employment change) – would show its gradual growth. Until Friday the pair had been moving strictly in accordance with this forecast – on Tuesday it reached the first resistance of 1.1173, rebounded, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the area of the second resistance at 1.1220, following which it reversed and fiercely went south. However, Friday release of data from the USA changed the situation dramatically – actual NFP reading turned out to be 4 times (!) less than it was expected, and thus US dollar plunged by nearly 250 points;
  
• as to GBP/USD, over the last several weeks the level of1.4500 was viewed as a medium-term pivotpoint for this pair. That’s why according to the readings of the graphical analysis the support zone was supposed to coincide with this line. But jitters and heightened volatilityahead of Brexit allowed the pair to drop below it by 115 points. However, afterwards it returned to the above-mentioned pivot point and wrapped up the week at the level of 1.4514;
  
• a sideways trend with the main resistance at 111.00 and support at 108.50 was deemed to be the most probable scenario for USD/JPY. Similar to EUR/USD, the pair first had been moving virtually within the predetermined range, however, the unexpected NFP data dropped the pair to the month-old values just in several hours;
  
• the forecast, provided by the graphical analysis for USD/CHF, suggested that it would return to the zone of 0.9700 and it turned out to be absolutely correct, the pair finished the week at the level of 0.9754 – which is 200 pointslower than the level it had started from.
  

Forecast for the Upcoming Week.

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested :

• as to the future of EUR/USD, 100% of indicators point upwards. However, the vast majority of experts (around 80%) continue to insist that the pair will go down at least to the level of 1.1100. As to the forecast for summer, in their opinion during this period the pair may move further down – to the mark of 1.1000. The graphical analysis gives more cautious forecasts. AccordingtoitsreadingsonН4 andD1, the pair may first go down towards the support of 1.1283 (the next support will be at 1.1200), and then it will surge upwardsto the high of 1.1450. Following which it will after all go south getting closer to the local bottom at the level of 1.1130;
  
• as to the acting of GBP/USD, analysts’ opinions are split almost equally – 45% vote for its fall, 45% - for its rise, and 10% - for the sideways trend. 75% ofindicatorsonD1 along with the graphical analysis also vote for the sideways movement of the pair, which seems to be the most probable for the upcoming week. As before the pivot point is at the level of 1.4500, the support isat the areas of 1.4455, 1.4400, 1.4330, the resistanceis at 1.4535, 1.4600 and 1.4740;
  
• analysts’ viewsonthefutureofUSD/JPYdiffer, somepredictitsrise (50%) and others expect a sideways trend (the other 50%), none of them predicts its fall this week. Of course the pair may reach its May low of 105.50, however, it will be a short-term movement, and its main trend is south-oriented – towards the pivot point of 110.00;
  
• as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a difference of experts’ opinions and the technical analysis once again. 90% of indicators point down, but 60% of analysts predict surge of the pair to the level of 0.9850. The graphical analysis also doesn’t rule out a similar short-term uptick, however, the analysis on Н4 as well as onD1continues to insist that a deep decline to the support of 0.9500 may follow. As to the medium-term forecast, it also remains the same, in spite of its fluctuations the pair should reach the benchmark level of 1.0000.
  

Roman Butko, NordFX

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NordFX announce that as of 11 April 2016, new conditions of the Affiliate Program come into effect and partner commissions will be almost doubled! This is the most significant upgrade in the history of our Affiliate Program.

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• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
  
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
  
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