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  1. #1
    PLON-MANIA MODS... Array Kardel Sharpeye's Avatar
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    The more you know, the less you know

    by Joe Ross

    Have you ever felt as if the more you know, the less you know, and the more you become confused? Why is this?

    People have the tendency to believe that the accuracy of their forecasts increases with more information. This is the illusion of knowledge - that more information increases your knowledge about something and improves your decisions. However, this is not always the case - increased levels of information do not necessarily lead to greater knowledge. There are three reasons for this. First, some information does not help us make predictions and can even mislead us. Second, many people may not have the training, experience, or skills to interpret the information. And, finally, people tend to interpret new information as confirmation of their prior beliefs.

    Let me give you an example of how too much information can lead to a paralysis of confusion.

    I met a man who was an avid student of the teachings of W.D. Gann. Gann believed in the movement of prices along a 45 degree angle. He also believed that time intervals of 3, 5, 9, and others had great importance. So the man I knew created moving averages of 3 bars, 5 bars, 9 bars and multiples thereof. Of course, 3 x 9 equals 27 and so he kept 27 bar moving averages. 5 x 9 is 45, and so he also kept 45 bar moving averages. He also watched 135 bar moving averages (3×45) and others. He looked for agreement among all of these moving averages, which of course, led to great confusion, since it was rare indeed and most likely coincidental when all of the moving averages showed some sort of agreement (confluence). So this man suffered greatly from paralysis of analysis. He simply had too much information, and he was unable to pull the trigger on a trade.

    I will never forget the statement he made to me: “Joe, I know so much. Why then is it that I never seem to be making money?”

    I think from the above description you should be able to figure it out, just as I did.

    imo = TRUE ! ... and A FACT !

  2. #2
    Gold Member Array Cyrillic's Avatar
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    Re: The more you know, the less you know

    I believe Plato once wrote "I know, that i know nothing" , think less trade more thats what one wise man told me...

  3. #3
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    Re: The more you know, the less you know

    thank you indo-investasi... now i become a better trader...
    Last edited by dr0o69; 08-07-2010 at 12:19 AM.

  4. #4
    Standard Member Array vicpal's Avatar
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    Re: The more you know, the less you know

    Quote Originally Posted by alten91
    The more you know, the less you know,
    when you know that statement ,
    then .....what is next ......
    couldn't agree more with this! KUDOS 4 U Mr. K! (even i can't do it here)

    that's why newbie can't start alone... need a mentor or a peer group!!

    =D> =D> =D>

    Agree with that!! Kinda off topic here but I mean look at all the world class athletes with amazing natural abilities and skills. No matter how great they are at what they do, all of them have coaches in all aspects of their life. Even the most successful and famous people all have mentors one way or another. So there is absolutely nothing wrong with being not knowing everything. If you stop learning and improving then that's the day you don't exist in this fine world of ours and having fun sleeping in your nice comfortable coffin eternally

    What I'm saying is be humble and keep learning to develop your skills further by getting mentored and put your ego aside and seek out other people's perspective. You don't what know what you don't know until you find out from another point of view.

    Good old saying said to keep learning/improving for the rest of your life and look at things at a different angle. Even masters make mistakes. So let go of your ego and trade humbly.

    May the pip Gods be with us all!!


  5. #5
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    Re: The more you know, the less you know

    On the other hand " When you know,and you know that you know, confidence replaces fear ".

    Find a system that gives you an edge and matches your personality, stick to it and learn it inside out, make it your own..
    Most successful traders find and use one system only, trade a specific time frame, follow very strict and specific rules.
    They eventually build their confidence to a level that it overcomes their fear.



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