Hi;
PREDIKSI TGL 16-2EPT-2008
4:30am UK CPI y/y 4.6%(E) 4.4%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
5:00am EU CPI y/y 3.8%(E) 3.8%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
8:30am US CPI m/m Core 0.2%(E) 0.3%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
2:15pm US FOMC Rate 2.00%(E) 2.00%(P) 0.25%(S) 70M
Not Tradable
UK BOE Inflation Letter (Tentative)
US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (9:00am)
E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached
Today is going to be an interesting day. I am seeing lots of
central bank interventions in this market trying to smooth the
aftermath of Lehman. We seen lots of liquidities injected into the
market to avoid similar market crash of Bears, but eventually the
sentiment will win over and there would be some kind of unwinding
in the carry trades, hopefully it would be an orderly unwinding
stretched out in the next few days.
There is now an overwhelming consensus for the Fed to cut interest
rate by 1.75% before the end of 2008, but it is widely expected that
FOMC will leave rates unchanged with a rather dovish statement
hinting a possible cut or change in policy in the future. However,
there would still be a slim change for a rate cut, although it is
going to be very slim.
NEWS TRADING
Tuesday Sept. 16 2008
[4:30am NY Time]
UK CPI y/y BUY 4.8% SELL 4.4% GBP/USD
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI
number. If we get a better than expected number of 4.6%, we should
see GBP/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 4.4%, then we'll see
GBP/USD moving down.
Here is the definition from ForexFactory:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
will usually have a high impact upon release.
[5:00am NY Time]
EU CPI y/y BUY 4.0% SELL 3.6% EUR/USD
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI
number. If we get a better than expected number of 3.8%, we should
see EUR/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 3.8%, then we'll see
EUR/USD moving down.
Here is the definition from ForexFactory:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
will usually have a high impact upon release.
[8:30am NY Time]
USA Core CPI m/m SELL 0.4% BUY 0.0% EUR/USD
Our focus will be on the Core CPI number, not the cHeadline CPI
number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.2%, we should
see EUR/USD moving down; if we get a lower than 0.2%, then we'll see
EUR/USD moving up.
Here is the definition from ForexFactory:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
will usually have a high impact upon release.
[2:15pm NY Time]
US FOMC Interest Rate BUY 1.75% EUR/USD
The Feds (FOMC) will release its Federal Funds Rate and its widely
expected to be a HOLD at current 2.00% level. FOMC is not expected
to cut rate this month, however the real mover won't be the rate
announcement, but the accompanied statements. If FOMC shifts its
focus on inflation, we can expect to see USD gaining across the
board. If the focus is on growth risks, then USD will be sold off
against other currencies.
(Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)
Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are
what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.
Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is
important to understand that market does not move just because a
technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding
fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in
the mid to long term.
I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow... :mrgreen: :peace:
Henry Liu
PREDIKSI TGL 16-2EPT-2008
4:30am UK CPI y/y 4.6%(E) 4.4%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
5:00am EU CPI y/y 3.8%(E) 3.8%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
8:30am US CPI m/m Core 0.2%(E) 0.3%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
2:15pm US FOMC Rate 2.00%(E) 2.00%(P) 0.25%(S) 70M
Not Tradable
UK BOE Inflation Letter (Tentative)
US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (9:00am)
E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached
Today is going to be an interesting day. I am seeing lots of
central bank interventions in this market trying to smooth the
aftermath of Lehman. We seen lots of liquidities injected into the
market to avoid similar market crash of Bears, but eventually the
sentiment will win over and there would be some kind of unwinding
in the carry trades, hopefully it would be an orderly unwinding
stretched out in the next few days.
There is now an overwhelming consensus for the Fed to cut interest
rate by 1.75% before the end of 2008, but it is widely expected that
FOMC will leave rates unchanged with a rather dovish statement
hinting a possible cut or change in policy in the future. However,
there would still be a slim change for a rate cut, although it is
going to be very slim.
NEWS TRADING
Tuesday Sept. 16 2008
[4:30am NY Time]
UK CPI y/y BUY 4.8% SELL 4.4% GBP/USD
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI
number. If we get a better than expected number of 4.6%, we should
see GBP/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 4.4%, then we'll see
GBP/USD moving down.
Here is the definition from ForexFactory:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
will usually have a high impact upon release.
[5:00am NY Time]
EU CPI y/y BUY 4.0% SELL 3.6% EUR/USD
Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI
number. If we get a better than expected number of 3.8%, we should
see EUR/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 3.8%, then we'll see
EUR/USD moving down.
Here is the definition from ForexFactory:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
will usually have a high impact upon release.
[8:30am NY Time]
USA Core CPI m/m SELL 0.4% BUY 0.0% EUR/USD
Our focus will be on the Core CPI number, not the cHeadline CPI
number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.2%, we should
see EUR/USD moving down; if we get a lower than 0.2%, then we'll see
EUR/USD moving up.
Here is the definition from ForexFactory:
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
(i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
will usually have a high impact upon release.
[2:15pm NY Time]
US FOMC Interest Rate BUY 1.75% EUR/USD
The Feds (FOMC) will release its Federal Funds Rate and its widely
expected to be a HOLD at current 2.00% level. FOMC is not expected
to cut rate this month, however the real mover won't be the rate
announcement, but the accompanied statements. If FOMC shifts its
focus on inflation, we can expect to see USD gaining across the
board. If the focus is on growth risks, then USD will be sold off
against other currencies.
(Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)
Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are
what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.
Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is
important to understand that market does not move just because a
technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding
fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in
the mid to long term.
I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow... :mrgreen: :peace:
Henry Liu
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