Results 1 to 9 of 9
  1. #1
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Lightbulb FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    Hi;

    PREDIKSI TGL 16-2EPT-2008


    4:30am UK CPI y/y 4.6%(E) 4.4%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
    5:00am EU CPI y/y 3.8%(E) 3.8%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
    8:30am US CPI m/m Core 0.2%(E) 0.3%(P) 0.2%(S) 50M
    2:15pm US FOMC Rate 2.00%(E) 2.00%(P) 0.25%(S) 70M

    Not Tradable

    UK BOE Inflation Letter (Tentative)
    US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (9:00am)

    E = Expected
    P = Previous
    S = Surprise Factor
    M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

    Today is going to be an interesting day. I am seeing lots of
    central bank interventions in this market trying to smooth the
    aftermath of Lehman. We seen lots of liquidities injected into the
    market to avoid similar market crash of Bears, but eventually the
    sentiment will win over and there would be some kind of unwinding
    in the carry trades, hopefully it would be an orderly unwinding
    stretched out in the next few days.

    There is now an overwhelming consensus for the Fed to cut interest
    rate by 1.75% before the end of 2008, but it is widely expected that
    FOMC will leave rates unchanged with a rather dovish statement
    hinting a possible cut or change in policy in the future. However,
    there would still be a slim change for a rate cut, although it is
    going to be very slim.

    NEWS TRADING

    Tuesday Sept. 16 2008

    [4:30am NY Time]

    UK CPI y/y BUY 4.8% SELL 4.4% GBP/USD

    Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI
    number. If we get a better than expected number of 4.6%, we should
    see GBP/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 4.4%, then we'll see
    GBP/USD moving down.

    Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
    (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
    purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
    on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
    is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
    annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
    interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
    foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
    currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
    will usually have a high impact upon release.

    [5:00am NY Time]

    EU CPI y/y BUY 4.0% SELL 3.6% EUR/USD

    Our focus will be on the headline CPI number, not the Core CPI
    number. If we get a better than expected number of 3.8%, we should
    see EUR/USD moving up; if we get a lower than 3.8%, then we'll see
    EUR/USD moving down.

    Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
    (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
    purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
    on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
    is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
    annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
    interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
    foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
    currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
    will usually have a high impact upon release.

    [8:30am NY Time]

    USA Core CPI m/m SELL 0.4% BUY 0.0% EUR/USD

    Our focus will be on the Core CPI number, not the cHeadline CPI
    number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.2%, we should
    see EUR/USD moving down; if we get a lower than 0.2%, then we'll see
    EUR/USD moving up.

    Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
    (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
    purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
    on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
    is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
    annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
    interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
    foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
    currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
    will usually have a high impact upon release.

    [2:15pm NY Time]

    US FOMC Interest Rate BUY 1.75% EUR/USD

    The Feds (FOMC) will release its Federal Funds Rate and its widely
    expected to be a HOLD at current 2.00% level. FOMC is not expected
    to cut rate this month, however the real mover won't be the rate
    announcement, but the accompanied statements. If FOMC shifts its
    focus on inflation, we can expect to see USD gaining across the
    board. If the focus is on growth risks, then USD will be sold off
    against other currencies.

    (Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)

    Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are
    what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.
    Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is
    important to understand that market does not move just because a
    technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding
    fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in
    the mid to long term.

    I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow... :mrgreen: :peace:

    Henry Liu


  2. #2
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    PREDIKSI KAMIS; TGL 18-9-2008

    4:30am
    UK Retail Sales -0.4%(E) 0.8%(P) 0.5%(S) 50M

    Not Tradable

    8:00am CHF Libor Rate
    6:45pm NZD Current Account

    E = Expected
    P = Previous
    S = Surprise Factor
    M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached


    ***

    Today's market has been extremely volatile to say the least, as we
    saw whipsaw reactions in carry trades and most majors, what a wild
    ride!

    As usual, my assessment of the market is that the trend has changed,
    as I suspected since Sunday. Now we will be looking at possible
    EUR/USD recovering in the 1.45 to 1.50 area in the mid term.

    As far as carry trades are concerned, i.e. GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, etc...
    I am looking at a possibility of unwinding, although it may not
    happen today. This news with AIG might provide some temporary
    support in the market, more write downs and negative news in the
    financial sector will surface in the next few days or weeks,
    therefore it is not time yet to load up on riskier trades yet.

    One last thing, if you weren't able to take advantage of the GBP/JPY
    upmove today for about 500 pips (one of my regular trades), then you
    need to get a copy of my E-book, where I talk about this movement in
    great details. There is no excuse for someone who bought my book
    to miss this movement, at least being able to catch 100 pips off
    from it.

    ***

    NEWS TRADING

    Thursday Sept. 18 2008

    [4:30am NY Time]

    UK Retail Sales SELL -0.9% BUY 0.1% GBP/USD

    If we get better numbers for the Retail Sales, which is forecasted
    at -0.4%, it would be good for the GBP/USD and provide temporary
    support, we would BUY GBP/USD. If we get worse numbers, somewhere
    in the -0.9% or worse, we will SELL GBP/USD.

    Here is the Definition from ForexFactory:

    Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has
    a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales
    make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major
    driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay
    close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first
    significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer
    behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

    (Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)

    Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are
    what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.
    Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is
    important to understand that market does not move just because a
    technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding
    fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in
    the mid to long term.

    I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow...


    Henry Liu

    *Yg sudah dapat ebooknya Henry Liu mohon kesediaannya untuk mem-postingkannya di forum. Trims.

  3. #3
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    PREDIKSI TGL 19-9-2008

    We don't have any tradable news tomorrow, as a matter of fact, there
    is almost nothing scheduled for tomorrow 19th of Sept. 2008...

    However, do not be fooled by the lack of news as lack of volatility.
    There is a rumor floating around with a special temporary rule from
    the SEC to ban all short selling of stocks. This will essentially
    give the greenback a boost (bad for EUR and GBP) and at the same
    time lift up all carry trades (such as JPY crosses..)

    This news is scheduled to be released just before NY Equity Market
    open, which is anytime from 8:00am to 9:30am NY Time. It will be
    priced into the market today, in my opinion, therefore be very
    careful with your direction.

    This is just another attempt from the government to quiet down the
    over-exaggerated market, and bring stability and order back into
    the finance sector.

    So, if you are new to this market, I would strongly suggest that you
    sit this one out... don't get in front of the market today and
    preserve your capital...

    (Special Message on Fundamental News Trading)

    Currency Market is driven by fundamental news. News releases are
    what determines the long term and short term trends of the market.
    Although technical analysis has its part in Forex trading, it is
    important to understand that market does not move just because a
    technical breakout or a candlestick pattern. By understanding
    fundamentals, a trader will have a powerful edge over the market in
    the mid to long term.

    I wish you all of the best, until tomorrow...

    Henry Liu

    * Yg sudah dapat ebooknya Henry Liu, mohon kesediaannya untuk berbagi. Terima-Kasih.

  4. #4
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    PREDIKSI TGL 22-9-2008

    8:30am CA Core Retail Sales 0.3%(E) 1.4%(P) 0.5%(S) 40M

    E = Expected
    P = Previous
    S = Surprise Factor
    M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

    ***

    As we start this week there are uncertainties in the market,
    specially with this new bailout plan from the treasury to help all
    troubled financial companies. I will be watching this week's
    speeches from Bernanke and possibly make a determination on future
    market sentiment.

    It is important that we be patient during this special time, as we
    have never seen this kind of market volatility in decades, if not
    centuries... it is extremely important that we protect our capital
    first.

    NEWS TRADING

    September 22, 2008

    [8:30am NY TIME]

    CA Core Retail Sales SELL 0.8% BUY -0.2% USD/CAD

    If we get better numbers for the Retail Sales, which is forecasted
    at 0.3, it would be bad for the USD/CAD (good for CAD) and provide
    temporary resistance, we would SELL USD/CAD. If we get worse
    numbers, somewhere in the -0.2% or worse, We'll look to BUY
    USD/CAD.

    Here is the Definition from ForexFactory:

    Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has
    a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales
    make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major
    driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay
    close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first
    significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer
    behavior and is susceptible to surprises.

    * yg sudah punya ebooknya tolong dibagi ya

  5. #5
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Lightbulb Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    PREDIKSI TGL 23-9-2008

    7:00am CA Core CPI m/m 0.1%(E) 0.1%(P) 0.2%(S) 40M
    ...and some not tradable

    10:00am US Fed. Bernanke Testifies
    10:00am US Treasury Sec. Paulson Speaks

    E = Expected
    P = Previous
    S = Surprise Factor
    M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached


    ***

    Today we will have two very crucial events, Sec. Paulson and Ben
    Bernanke's testimony. Market condition will be extremely volatile
    as this event will be watched closely by traders all over the world.

    It is once again best to stay out of the market, because this kind
    of uncertainty is not good for trading.

    NEWS TRADING

    September 23, 2008

    [7:00am NY TIME]

    CA Core CPI m/m SELL 0.3% BUY -0.1% USD/CAD


    Our focus will be on the Core CPI number, not the Headline CPI
    number. If we get a better than expected number of 0.1%, we should
    see USD/CAD moving down; if we get a lower than -0.1%, then we'll
    see USD/CAD moving up.

    Here is the definition from ForexFactory:

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation
    (i.e., the rate of price changes) experienced by consumers when
    purchasing goods and services. A rising trend has a positive effect
    on the nation's currency. The primary objective of the central bank
    is to achieve price stability; when inflation rises above an
    annualized rate of approximately 2%, they will respond by raising
    interest rates to bring prices down. Higher interest rates attract
    foreign investment, thus increasing demand for the nation's
    currency. CPI is one of the most closely watched indicators and
    will usually have a high impact upon release.

  6. #6
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    PREDIKSI 24-9-2008

    10:00am US Exiting Home Sales 4.93M(E) 5.00M(P) 400K(S) 40M

    ...and some not tradable

    4:00am EU German Ifo Business Climate
    6:00am UK CBI Retail Sales
    10:00am US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Speaks
    2:30pm US Fed. Chairman Bernanke Speaks.

    E = Expected
    P = Previous
    S = Surprise Factor
    M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached

    ***


    As we approach to the mid of the week, once again we are still very
    uncertain about the market direction in the short-term. As Bernanke
    and Paulson try to sell this massive bailout plan to the congress,
    market volatility remains indecisively, kept today's trading in a
    range.

    What I am looking for today will be the German Ifo number and the
    testimonies of Bernanke. Obvious Bernanke's speech will be watched
    by major market players as it is going to set the tone for the rest
    of the week.

    I will analyze the news and my thoughts tomorrow. Once again today's
    market condition is a completely new territory. No one has seen
    this kind of market reaction for decades, therefore it is better is
    to stay out if you are unsure of market direction.

    ***

    Today we will have two very crucial events, Sec. Paulson and Ben
    Bernanke's testimony. Market condition will be extremely volatile
    as this event will be watched closely by traders all over the world.

    It is once again best to stay out of the market, because this kind
    of uncertainty is not good for trading.

    NEWS TRADING

    Wednesday September 24, 2008

    [10:00am NY TIME]

    US Exisiting Home Sales BUY 4.53M SELL 5.33M EUR/USD


    Existing Home Sales is expected at 4.93M, if the number is lower,
    it would be bad for the USD, and we would BUY EUR/USD or EUR/USD; if
    the number is higher, then it would be good for USD, and we would
    SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD.

    Here is the Definition from ForexFactory:

    Measures the annualized number of existing residential buildings
    that were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a
    positive effect on the nation's currency because large purchases
    tend to be made by consumers that are optimistic and confident in
    their financial position. The sale of a home also triggers
    commissions for real estate agents, and often home owners will
    purchase goods such as appliances and furniture shortly after
    purchasing a home. Traders watch this report closely as it's the
    month's first demand-side housing indicator to be released.

  7. #7
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    PREDIKSI TGL 25-9-2008


    10:00am US New Home Sales 510K(E) 515K(P) 70K(S) 40M
    6:45pm NZ GDP q/q -0.5%(E) -0.3%(P) 0.3%(S) 40M
    ...and some not tradable

    8:30am US Core Durable Goods
    8:30am US Unemployment Claims E = Expected
    P = Previous
    S = Surprise Factor
    M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached ***

    Today's speech from President Bush in an attempt to sell public on
    the feasibility of his massive bailout plan seems to be working, as
    we saw EUR/USD soaring immediately after the news... Further comments from different senators and news outlets right
    after the speech suggested that this massive bailout plan will pass
    early on next week... Therefore today's market we are going to see
    EUR/USD soaring and possibly a further appetite for risk until next
    week... .
    *** NEWS TRADING
    Thursday September 25, 2008

    [10:00am NY TIME]

    US New Home Sales BUY 440K SELL 580K EUR/USD

    New Home Sales is expected at 530K, if the number is lower,
    it would be bad for the USD, and we would BUY GBP/USD or EUR/USD; if
    the number is higher, then it would be good for USD, and we would
    SELL GBP/USD or EUR/USD.

    ForexFactory Definition:
    Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that
    were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive
    effect on the nation's currency because the housing market is a
    leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing
    activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that
    consumers have the capital to make large investments. More
    importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect
    as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their
    homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet
    demand.

    [6:45pm NY TIME]

    NZ GDP q/q SELL -0.8% NZD/USD


    GDP is a high impact news... The expected consensus number is -0.5%,
    therefore if we get a 0.3% of deviation, we should see market move
    40 pips within the hour.

    Definition from ForexFactory:

    Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods
    and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive
    effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of
    activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. To foreign
    investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs
    investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets.
    More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest
    rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination
    of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the
    nation's currency.

  8. #8
    Silver Member Array
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    ROXY-Jakarta-Pusat
    Posts
    160
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 11 Times in 10 Posts

    Lightbulb Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    26-9-2008

    We don't have any tradable news tomorrow, however there are many
    breaking news scheduled to be released tomorrow and many surprise
    news releases taking place as I am writing this...

    The latest news was JP Morgan acquiring Washington Mutual, which is
    the largest savings and loans institution in America, marking this
    another major demise in wallstreet, intesifying the sense risk
    aversion once again in the marketplace.

    As to add insult to injury, the almost-sure massive bailout plan
    just 24 hour ago now hit a major roadblock, as the late night
    session in a closed cabinet meeting with both presidential hopefuls
    and president Bush turned out fruitless; and to further confuse the
    market, House Republicans proposed a separate bill proposing to let
    "Wall street bail out wall street"...

    These new developments have added a sense of flight to safety and we
    have seen CHF and JPY both firming up against all majors; as we get
    into the early London session, I fully expect to see this sentiment
    to continue.

    Today will be a very tough day to trade, with the lingering
    possibility of a last minute surprise, this Bailout Bill will
    dominate the market undoubtly. Market conditions will be extremely
    volatile with violent swings both ways along with no committment to
    either directions. I would certainly suggest that we wait until
    we find out the final verdict with this bill, then we can decide
    market direction.

    However, if you were to take any trade today, I would be taking them
    in the direction of Risk Aversion.


    *Minggu depan stop dulu, cape :peace:

  9. #9
    Silver Member Array bielcomp's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Lampung - Indonesia
    Posts
    136
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post

    Re: FUNDAMENTAL: Henry Liu Prediction

    wah wah bro will roxy langganan apa ikutan yang trial nya nih ?

    kalo ada ebooknya boleh share gak ...soalnya ada yang minta tuh di thread forex ebook :cd:

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 7
    Last Post: 04-15-2016, 01:51 AM
  2. 2008 Maret 11 - Nikkei, Kospi, HangSeng prediction
    By William in forum Diskusi Umum Index Futures
    Replies: 23
    Last Post: 04-08-2016, 01:40 AM
  3. Mastermind Mentoring System by Henry Liu
    By uniques in forum Forex Clips & Movie Tutorial Request
    Replies: 79
    Last Post: 02-14-2011, 03:34 PM
  4. Roman Kirillov HL prediction
    By William in forum MetaTrader Indicators
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 08-17-2009, 10:50 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •